Beck Water

Aside from week 2, where he played 35% of the snaps for the injured Davis, and week 5, where he played 70% of the snaps with Crowder IR'd and McKenzie concussed and out, Shakir has been averaging 15-16 snaps (20-25%) a game. He got twice that (34 snaps, 44%) in the most recent game against Detroit. So to reprise: Shakir has been active for 9 out of 11 games so far this season. He's been on the field for more than 1/3 of the offensive snaps in 3 of those 9 games. In 5 of the other games, he's been on the field for 1/5 to 1/4 of the offensive snaps. In that time, he's had 7 receptions on 15 targets. Even worse, in the last 4 games, he's had 2 targets and 1 reception. They aren't using him as a blocker (his blocking is improving, but still very inconsistent), so one has to assume he's running routes. How many snaps in how many games do you think will be required for him to show us this breakout? I don't mean to dunk on the guy, he's a rookie, he's shown promise, but he IS getting on the field and he's not getting targets, so can we stop pretending that the Bills are unfairly depriving him of all chances to show what he can do?

It is a small sample, but I think it's significant that when he signed, it was "Tampa signed to the PS with the intention of moving him to the active roster". After 2 weeks of observing him in practice and recording his GPS output and 2 games, Tampa chose to return him to the practice squad after his 2nd game, and Beasley chose to retire and go home instead of learning the offense and competing for another shot at the roster. He took what most people interpreted as a public shot at the personal troubles of a HOF QB on his way out the door instead of the usual "Thank you to Tampa Bay for the opportunity. I've reached the difficult decision that it's time for me to retire" He could indeed. McKenzie has been getting snaps, though - 55% on the season. What he's not been getting is targets. Then the question is "why"?

In hindsight, that was probably Carolina's mistake with Cam Newton - making a strategic decision that an all-world QB could compensate for a mediocre OL and middling WR corps, and I share concerns that Beane is going down a path to replicate that mistake. No, but the point is the Bills did have 7 games of film where he looked better than Vlad Ducasse (a very low bar) but not good. When you go back and look at it through the lens of that off season, the Bills were determined to immediately upgrade the OL to "serviceable" in front of Allen so it was a numbers/position game. It's been hashed out here a bunch of times, so I'm not gonna go into more depth on it here.

What are you talkin' about? Teller started 7 games for the Bills at LG in 2018 Did they give him enough time or, in hindsight, make a talent evaluation mistake, sure. But c'mon man don't revise what factually occurred.

I haven't seen him play, but I know he's been starting for the Raiders. So if he can start somewhere in the league as a rookie, OK. The one that really torques me is 2021, Boogie Basham in the 2nd round 2 picks ahead of where KC took Creed Humphrey, when we'd already drafted for DE in the 2nd round of 2020 and the 1st round of 2021. Humphrey isn't just starting, he's starting for one of the best teams in the league. I know we had Morse at C, but Humphrey said he could play guard and I believe it from his physicals. We coulda done what the Bills did with Eric Wood, play him at G a season or 2 and then moved him over. And I hear "don't draft for need, but Basham is a guy Beane reported telling "don't be satisfied with your role as a backup, go out and compete to be a starter" - in the 2nd round, after a year, that's what you're telling a guy? Grumph.

I don't believe I'm exaggerating your meaning. I think I understand it very well. I just disagree with you, to the point where I think you have a very bad take. I think Beasley was very very good, maybe elite, slot at his peak and he showed it in Buffalo. "Eclipsing 1000 yds" is not a good metric for a guy who plays almost every snap from the slot. Guys who grab more yards from the slot are usually guys who play elsewhere 40% of their snaps. I didn't like his public behavior last year, I don't agree with his public stance on a number of issues, but I say "Give the Man his Propers" as a player. He was a Baller, and in the 2019-2020 window with the Bills, he was in fact a very very good if not elite slot. Characterizing him as "catch the ball and fall down" is just wrong. In 2019-2020, ~40% of his yards came after the catch. In 2020 he was responsible for more than 20% of the team's passing 1D. I don't have the Beasley nostalgia of others. People aren't considering that while it's using the same terminology, 70-80% of the offense is new. I don't think Dorsey doesn't see the slot position the same way Daboll did, and if 2020 Beasley walked in the door there's no guarantee that he'd be used in the same way that made him so productive in Daboll's offense. But give the man his propers; at his peak here he was very very good, and saying he wasn't is just a bad take. Period.

This. To be fair, the first thing out of Beane's mouth after 2021 was "we need a closer on defense" "we didn't affect the QB enough" and he spent the Big Splash on Von Miller.

Um. Are we watching the same games? -not that many draw plays -in most plays, not that many underneath throws - a lot of the time by design, the routes are often either check downs or deep routes and little in between -we do have checkdowns almost every play but Josh seldom takes them. he takes them more than he used to but that's not often Clue: when the leading receivers on the team for yards, all have 10 Y/R (and #2 is pushing 20 Y/R) that's a hint that the offense may not be designed around quick release dump-offs and underneath throws. The RB only has 30 receptions, and the offense is #24 in the league for YAC, so it's not cuz they're making it up after catch.

Um, wanna go look at those rosters and come back and say that?

You could. But an intended point I made in another post was that, when given the opportunity to stay on the practice squad and do what the PS guys do with no immediate outlook of making it on to the 53 man roster, in Tampa - Beasley "nope!'d " right outta there. I don't think he's interested in grinding away on the PS doin' what the unsung PS guys do to help the team. Geary and Turner on one of the Cover1 podcasts said "the Bills have 4 NFL WR right now" Ouch for Gentry

As a practical matter, teams keep 5 or 6 WR on their roster, and usually the 5th and 6th guys have to play ST. KC has 5 right now, with a starter on IR. Buffalo started the year with 6 on their roster and has 2 on IR. There is no way we are going to be able to accommodate 7 bodies in the WR room with 0 of them significant players on ST. So yeah, Fantasy.

Why do you think it's a change of heart, just because someone threw him some looooove on twitter and he liked it?

This is a bad take. Beasley was certainly a top slot receiver in the league for his first 2 years in B'lo and arguably instrumental in Josh's development as a QB who could make reads and throw guys open. True that his performance fell off by several metrics (Y/R, 1D etc) last season, and his performance became more inconsistent game to game.

To be fair to Cole, he wasn't cut. He'd been elevated from the practice squad for two games as one of the two "free elevations", and reverted to the practice squad after each game. Practice squad players are free agents. But I do sense a little "salt" there. Yes, I'm just inferring things, but take a gander at the Tampa Bay transactions page: No one else got their practice squad contract terminated twice 😄 Now Beasley did have his agent announce his retirement October 5th, so maybe it's something around that, but I chuckled when I read it. Like "she's not only merely dead, she's really quite sincerely dead". Anyway, facts: In 2 games, Beasley had 4 receptions on 5 targets for 17 yds and 1 1D from the Bucs. Now that's more than the Bills have been getting from Shakir, but....

What, on the "team first" "correctspeak" stuff? Listen to the interview. What would you call that? On the "wanted to get it on tape", yes. Yes, I am, it's an inference. But look, these days it's no secret the NFL rosters are made up of "stars and JAGs". The stars have big cap hits to cut them and oodles of guaranteed money, they can buy a house and a couple of Porshes. The JAGs are getting paid just over league minimum with little or no guaranteed money. Some try to get month-to-month leases or live in hotels because they know the Turk could visit any day the team feels it has an opportunity to improve heir position. They're realists, they gotta be. Part of them genuinely loves the team and their teammates and wants to help it win, and part of them knows they could be on the street tomorrow. McKenzie is one step up from a JAG - he got a small signing bonus and most of his salary this season is guaranteed, but it's nothing the Bills couldn't move on from if they in fact, make a play to sign OBJ or if John Brown still "has it" and the team decides he would contribute more than McK down the stretch or if Crowder comes back and the Bills decide that he serves them better or (subject of this thread) they decide they need Beasley. In that situation, a WR who just put a 6 reception, 1 TD, 103 yd game on tape is in hella better shape than a WR who had 7 receptions on 9 targets for 57 yds in the last 4 games.

I'm gonna buck the trends and go with Knox. I think we need a run game, and I think with Dawkins out and Brown playing like a turnstile in pass pro we're going to need good blocking from our TE to both pass and to run.

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/isaiah-mckenzie-i-just-had-to-wait-my-turn-and-it-came He says a lot of very team-first and "correctspeak" stuff about how important divisional games are. He was asked "how badly did you need that game?" and he says "I've been wanting it for a while, I just had to wait my turn and it came, I took advantage of my opportunities when it came" "going into this game, it gives me some confidence, I just want to help the team win" - all very best-behaved teamspeak. But in between he says "I just wanted to put it on tape". Who worries about "putting it on tape"? Guys auditioning for a new team, that's who. IMO. He cracks a genuine smile and seems genuinely thrilled to have John Brown back.

I think you're exactly right that the Bills didn't expect McKenzie to replace Beasley. They expected to replace Beasley with 4 different guys: 1) Platoon McKenzie and Crowder. Taron Johnson commented that switching them off was a nightmare to cover because they were so different. The two of them together would project to 72 receptions, 744 yds, 50 1D over 16 games - which is quite reasonable production from the slot. 2) The Bills made it clear they wanted a pass-catching RB and I believe they intended to replace part of the route package Beasley ran with passes from the RB. That hasn't quite worked out. Cook has not stepped up in that role yet (that route vs the Lions - UGH) 3) As a former QB, I think Dorsey wanted to see a big body (Dawson Knox) across the middle. But we've been needing Knox to block or at least chip and release, and something was going on with him - I think he was struggling to catch in practice or something after losing his brother, because before the Browns game, Knox had less than half the targets of last year. Hopefully that's turning around. People are dissing McKenzie because there are a crowd here who are reactive AF. He's had a handful of very visible gaffs, most of which arguably aren't entirely his fault. He's the "class clown" so he makes himself a target, especially in the absence of "ooohs" and "ahhhs" plays like Davis vs. Pittsburgh, even though other players have made at least as many FU's some of which arguably are their fault. We see the same phenomenon with other players, Jackson or Taron Johnson have struggled recently for various reasons and people are here "bench him" "cut him" "he's trash" "he plays like *****" blah blah. Now we're getting into canonizing the backup QB territory. Yes, Crowder contributed. Yes, his contributions were important and are missed. But c'mon man, the guy had a catch % <50% when he broke his leg. He had 1.5 receptions, 1 1D per game and 15 ypg while rocking 33% of the snaps. That is in no way "hidden MVP" territory.

OK, who we cut to put him on the roster? Gabe Davis, the only apparent deep threat on the team and 2nd on the team with 650 receiving yards (also 5 TD) Khalil Shakir, our newly drafted guy who has shown some flashes, and who many have praised and wondered they don't see more? Isaiah McKenzie? He's the populist choice here with many clamoring for his head, but he's contributed 6 TD and 21 1st downs (projects to 10 TD and 34 1D in 16 games) and he just had a 103 yd game. As Cover1 put it, "he's the only receiver on the team who can consistently outrun a DB and get open". If you read between the lines of McKenzie's locker room interview this week, he knows it could happen, I'm not sure it's the smart move. Not sure it's the smart move to cut any of these in favor of a guy who's been sitting on his sofa and who "took his ball and went home" in Tampa when asked to live on the practice squad and play ST, especially when it's not clear he'd be nearly as effective in Dorsey's play designs.

Oooooh....anyone wanna make a bet that didn't get played in the WR room and the OL room meetings? Maybe on a tape loop. I can't disagree with him. We were hoping that Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and most of all Mr Big Contract Dawson Knox would step up. That has not happened to date.

In order to elevate Gentry, we would have to cut someone from the 53 man roster. He's had his 3 elevations for this season (first one was Pittsburgh)

Good place to put this: Bills have until 4 pm EST today to make any roster moves, including PS elevations. The more you know....

Patriots All-Access coverage of the game It's long with a lot of fluff in there - it's like an amalgamation of all the various little feature pieces and interviews the Bills do during the week. Some key points: -It's gonna be Devin McCourty's 200th game. Kraft showed up during his presser and presented him with a special framed collage. It's a bit of a big deal for them -Mention that the Bills D is "dinged up" but still a good D -Mention that the Bills have been "sloppy in the details" with "too many turnovers". "he's thrown 7 turnovers in the last 5 games". It's True! -They feel that means the Bills are vulnerable, but, as one of their commentators said "It's like you're getting a Porsche, and you find out you're getting the base model. It's still a very nice car" -I didn't hear mention of our two big "Out for the Game", Von Miller and Dion Dawkins. On OL, the Patriots have perennially fielded a good OL with backups, so they may under appreciate how big that may be for the Bills. Still, we did manage to function against the Lions, so Think Positive. -Not just Belicheck, but several player interviews (which may more accurately reflect what the coaches are dinning into them) stressed Josh Allen's running ability and his ability to break big runs, so they need to work together and contain him. Josh recently had games of 86, 84, and 78 yds rushing (the Browns game was an outlier with 3 attempts for 7 yds) so perhaps there is reason for that stress. Matt Parrino believes Patriots Week is still a big deal to Sean McDermott: Says that things get very buttoned-up in press conferences, media availability in practice shrinks, the Bills were late out of practice on their Thursday-equivalent (which would be Monday).

Yeah, truthfully...this is my biggest concern. I think Dorsey is still in that stage of his development as an OC where he gets all caught up in the X's and the O's and forgets about the Jimmies and the Joes. We have a backup LT and a guy who unfortunately, probably should be a backup RT playing against Judon. Dorsey Better Have a Plan for him. They're both good run blocking tackles, so maybe we can get something rolling on the ground. Would also be a fine day for a short passing game. Belicheck seems focused on preventing big plays and preventing long Josh Allen runs. So maybe there will be some room for that.

Now That was a Fine Piece of Work. Oh..... OK Roll Highlights, I Guess?