Beck Water

Yes, McKenzie has had some bad plays. But as a matter of CHHF (cold hard football facts) he has had the 2nd highest catch % of the WR on the team all season, second to Diggs - and 3 scored drops for a 6% drop %, just a little bit higher than Diggs with 7 scored drops for 5.5%. And at times he's been wide wide open and overlooked while Josh threw deep to a double-covered guy. We can agree that improved consistency is a goal for him if he wants to stick around.

See, this is not what I'm seeing. Yes, Daboll ran a lot of layer concepts. In 2020 the "intermediate" layer was pretty deep, 10-15 yds and Josh feasted there. In 2021, teams started playing consistent 2 deep, trying to get pressure with 4 or even 3 with stunting and players dropping out vs blitzing, and flooding the middle of field with DBs. It's one reason Beasley was not able to be as consistently effective or gain as many yards on the same # of receptions (it wasn't all on him declining physically). Dorsey started out with more layered concepts, but of recent I feel he's gone away from that to deeper routes and short checkdown routes. I see McKenzie in the flat or on little short comebacks (I know those have a specific name), OR, he's one of the 3 WR running downfield routes (usually clearing routes for Diggs and Davis) and it's Knox and the RB as the checkdowns. McK's clearing routes have been less effective because he hasn't been getting targets and the DBs are like "ha, don't be silly, we're looking at you, Diggs". TD vs Lions was a route where Diggs cleared for McK, the DBs stuck to him like bees on honey, and McKenzie got the grab. FWIW it's not just me, Erik Turner and Nate Geary on a recent Cover1 piece said the same thing about seeing less layers and more "Deep or very shallow, nothing in between". It's why I think if 2020 Beasley walked back in the door today, he wouldn't necessarily have the same success - the way Dorsey is using the slot receiver is different. Now, of course, the chicken-and-egg question can be asked, but I really think it's a philosophical thing. Daboll felt the way to beat teams that flood the middle of the field was by scheming guys open as you say with misdirection, stacked routes, picks, etc - or maybe he did that because he knew Josh behaved as though he's allergic to checkdowns. Dorsey feels the way to play a team that's decided to flood the intermediate to deep parts of the field is to hit the checkdowns and burn them for 10-15 yds over and over and over again until they decide to try something different or you reach the EZ, and Josh, take the checkdown ***** he can get you 20 yds if you throw it on time. But Dorsey and Allen haven't been on the same page, because Josh feels that he has the arm talent to fire it in to tight windows on a double-covered deep guy and the leg talent to extend plays and wait 4 seconds for a WR to get open deep. Hopefully the Pats game is the start of them being more aligned.

Exactly. As someone said, "your body adds up all the bruises and bumps you take in your 20s, and sends you a bill in your 30s". I don't think anyone wants to eliminate the running part of Allen's game. We just want him to be smarter about it - don't fight for "every blade of grass he can get", slide or go out of bounds more.

I will say this. Harbaugh said about Lamar Jackson, "when he runs, he's in control". There's something to the point that when Josh runs, he has more control over how he gets hit vs standing in the pocket where he's vulnerable when he's setting to throw.

We'll see. In fairness, I will say that most of the punishment Allen took against the Pats last night was IN the pocket, standing in to make a throw with a rusher bearing down on him, or maneuvering behind the LOS to throw. Judon and Uche are legit

LOL love your stories. Hypothetical I'm sure. You're exactly right about some of Allen's runs. I remember that one vs. the Lions. Then there was the stupidity against the Pats where he was surrounded by red shirts and launched himself up into the air. Damned near got his head taken off, in a totally legal hit no one could question. Even Allen said "that was bad, that one hurt". I think some of Allen's poor late game decision making that has cost us games, just may be influenced by taking those hits and getting his "bell rung" a little bit. Needing a breather to regroup mentally is one reason McDermott repeatedly says he wants an RB rotation, but the QB doesn't get a breather - so maybe he should act a bit less like an RB. I hope Allen got a stern talking-to at halftime.

LOL no. In the post game thread, I put up a couple screen shots (credit to Erik Turner of Cover1) that pretty well exemplify what I've been seeing. Some combination of Knox, McKenzie, and an RB have been open short to intermediate on the majority of our passing plays. Allen has not been looking to them. The answer to "where are these guys, and why aren't they contributing?" has often been, they're there, they're open, they're generally not being used. It looks as though Dorsey's idea of the answer to teams playing 2 high safeties, rush 3 or 4, flood the field with DBs, has been to send 3 WR on relatively slow developing routes, get at least 2 guys open very short who have all sorts of room (because the DBs are all busy covering 3 receivers). If Allen hits these guys in time, they can get the first down and very likely more. Allen has been literally overlooking his short options and trying to buy time and force the ball in to 3 WR covered by 7 defenders. Early in the year, with no dings and dents on him and pinpoint accuracy, it worked more often than not. But the answer to "where have those guys been?" is "right where Allen found them last night". Now - the Lions game was a little different. I think we were running a lot of 5 WR looks, spreading the field, and when McKenzie was open it was often open quite deep. But vs. the Patriots, he was running quite "conventional slot" routes and making good catches for 1st downs.

So Greg Cosell's usual Friday segment on OBL was spent dissecting the NE game. Worth a listen Tidbit. 10:25 in. Brown brought up that the Bills have run 4 total plays out of "ten personnel" (he means 10 personnel, 4 WR 1 RB and 0 TE). He says we haven't seen it in weeks, but I think we ran it against Detroit? Maybe I'm wrong, I assume Brown watches more film than I do... ....anyway, his point is we showed that personnel set 4x vs NE with Cook as the back, and we ran from it all 4 times - for 27 yds. Cosell gives a nice explanation of how this 4 WR personnel set influences run defense and can help break a bigger run play.

I'm not ready to annoint Cook yet. It's very important to the Bills to have a back who can pass protect well. Is Cook that guy? Uncertain. re: intermediate area I'd like to bring up this screenshot from the Cook 14 yd catch-and run again. I double-dip here because I'm a lazy butt - feel free to correct me anyone who's been watching more film, but I think you could find quite a few similar screen shots where the details are different - you could have McKenzie off to the L standing on the 22 hash or Knox in the flat - but the story is similar. The Patriots tried to pressure with, actually it looks like 3 guys and one assigned to mirror Josh Allen. All seven of their other defenders are BEHIND THE FIRST DOWN LINE, and most of them >10 yds off the LOS. Josh has been holding onto the ball for 2.72 seconds. For something like 1.72 seconds, Knox has been so freakin' open with so much green around him, he could plant a Christmas tree farm and shape the trees on the way to the 30 yd line. Cook was open earlier in the play, but Josh refused to pull the trigger earlier because he was looking deep. Thankfully Cook was "QB friendly" this time and shifted to an open passing lane, Allen found him, and he gained 14. He could have had more if Allen didn't wait until the two defenders said "oh, *****" and headed for Cook. For a QB like Kurt Warner or like Dorsey likely was in college, this is read and react territory. You've got 7 LB and DB in the vicinity with 3 receivers vs. 2 targets who leaked out from pass pro WIDE OPEN. You hit one of them ASAP, before the deep guys go "Oh, waitaminnut, who's got Cook? Who's got Knox?". Let them gain 14 or 20 or 28 yds and if it's only 7 yds, no problem, now it's 3rd and 1 and the football still belongs to the Bills. Then I believe Dorsey's idea is, after the D gets burned on 5 or 6 or 15 of these plays, the DC says "Oh, wait a minute, Allen is taking the checkdowns today and those guys have serious wheels and it's killing us, time for a different plan!". Then it's 5 DB on 3 WR which means one guy is singled and there's a better chance to scheme one open. We start seeing Dorsey roll out the passing concepts with intermediate routes again. And if the D doesn't adjust, who cares, keep running the same style of play until the D proves they can stop it. You've just gained 85 yds and you're posing in the endzone. This is where my ears pricked in the Fitzy interview when Josh said that the QB has to be an extension of how the OC sees the field and it's taken some time but he thinks they're getting to a good place now, or words to that effect. I think what Josh sees on the field is - "I know I can make this happen". He will try to force a throw in. And if he does have the protection or can extend the play, he's not entirely wrong. In fact, as Cook makes the catch and we're 3.6 seconds into the play, you can see that Diggs has beaten his guy deep, and Gabe Davis may be coming open on the crosser (though there's a defender who could read Allen's eyes and play robber, and the DB in trail could play in the ball). But then if he misses, we're in 3rd and 8 and a penalty or a misfire takes us off the field. TL;DR I'm coming to the feeling that what's been wrong with the offense isn't either on Dorsey or Josh but on a mismatch in philosophy and view of the field, and hopefully if Josh is right that they're getting to a good place now, things will start clicking.

Well, both tackles were beaten like drums, Allen was under duress most of the game, we gave up a strip sack with a vicious hit from Allen’s blindside, and lost a TD to a holding penalty. Some would say that’s not good, even if it’s understandable. Well and to someone else upthread, this is why I thought Sal’s arrow up on the OL would be controversial. Yeah, we had a good day in the run game, and yeah Quess playing hurt, but YIKEs

Um, are you serious in asking that question or just yanking my chain? Of course not. I quoted 3 paragraphs that made one specific point, out of many points made in the article, out of a very long article. The whole article would require scrolling through about 9 screens full of just writing.

Here's a snippet about Crowder from the Athletic Article on this weeks game:

Joe B article from The Athletic. Paywall

Sal Capaccio's take Agree? Disagree? Discuss.

And tagging in here. Here's a screen shot from the TNF "Prime Vision" option Turner put up. This IMHO totally illustrates what some of us are saying about Dorsey's play design. Three receivers are running routes 10-15 yds from the LOS at this point, and are pretty well covered. Allen has always, all his career, looked PAST the 1st down marker. So he's been throwing to one of these guys, trusting his arm and forcing the throw at times. (Spoiler: two of the receivers are running deep crossers and Diggs, I think it is, eventually blows past his guy and comes open downfield. Given time, those routes do work) But it's not that he doesn't have options. He's got Knox (I think) who has chipped and released and has no one within 10 yds of him. Then he has Cook, who this time (thank you!) makes the right move to find the throwing lane, catches the ball, and gains about 12 YAC for a nice 14 yd pickup and the 1st down.

Since some of us were "down" on Cook for faking out his own QB and not being QB friendly last week. Here's Cook last night "doing the Right Thing". YES!!!!

No flaming from here. There are times when you change coaches or offensive coordinators and all of a sudden a guy who looked "Seriously?" becomes "Damn! OK!" Example would be Daniel Jones, who looked functional for a rookie under Pat Shurmer/Mike Shula. Then he started looking pretty clueless under Joe Judge/Jason Garrett & Freddie Kitchens. Lo and behold, Daboll/Mike Kafka and a healthy run game and Daniel Jones seems serviceable once again. You'd like him to be collecting a few more passing yards per game, but everything else (TD/INT ratio, completion % etc) you can win with. Agree, Tua would be another example of the difference a good OC and HC can make, but TBF adding Hill to Waddle didn't hurt. I would put Mac Jones in the same category - I don't find him likeable or charismatic, but give him his propers. He was able to be a perfectly functional QB under Josh McDaniel, in an offense based on making the right reads and getting the ball out in rhythm, then taking a few deep shots when they're there. Completion %, 22 TD to 13 INTs, YPG - those were all good enough QB play to win with, supported by a good run game and a top D.

Judon is a very good player. He is currently leading the league in sacks with 13. 2nd in QB hits, 8 in TFL. He's a terror. The Bills have pretty much had a Plan for him ever since 2019 when he strip-sacked Josh Allen in Baltimore for a sack-fumble TD. Leaving Sweeney to block him, leading to a holding call, was a plan I guess - but it was a Bad Plan.

Nice. A few more of Baldy's Breakdowns:

I can see where that sounds a little unreasonable. But this is what you wrote that I was responding to: "McKenzie......has made mistakes many times on his routes that hurt us this year." Now a lot of us fans can remember plays during the season that we feel really cost the Bills, be it a fumble or a dropped ball or whatever. Since you feel McKenzie has not just "many mistakes on his routes" but that specifically have hurt us this year, I just thought you might be able to remember a few of those route running mistakes as far as at least what game, what quarter etc etc. to where a fellow fan could go have a look. Because to the entirety of what you said: "McKenzie is not the answer in the slot. He is a gadget player, he isn’t a guy who can make a tough catch in traffic or get tough yards. He also is not a refined route runner and has made mistakes many times on his routes that hurt us this year." - I mean, C'mon - you're talking about a guy who followed up a 6 reception, 1 TD, 103 Y/Sc game where he mostly caught deeper balls, with a 5 reception on 5 targets, 44 yd game, where some of those yards were tough. And he's looked to me as though he's improved pretty damn well on his routes. So in that context, what you say seems to need a bit of evidence to bolster it. Yes, McKenzie has had mistakes, so have basically every skill player on the team this season. OK, so you don't want to depend on McKenzie, even though he has had good games and, to accompany his mistakes, has actually contributed 5 TD and 25 1D to go with his gaffes (and not from gadget plays). Instead you want to see less McKenzie (who has contributed) and more Shakir (who has not contributed much, yet, in the ~16 snaps he gets every game), to "develop Shakir" - even though as you point out: I think you might want to re-think this a bit. There seems to be some logical inconsistency. BTW, Davis has almost the same catch % this season as his previous seasons, and his drop % is just a bit higher. So I'm not sure where the surprise is.

The Bills do have a sports psychologist on staff, and I'm sure they've had him or her work with Allen from time to time. But the "Need to be sure every possession ends with a kick" mantra dates from 2019, or at least that's when I heard Allen saying it first.

Best tidbit from that interview: On Dorsey: "Dorsey's great..he's a fiery competitor....Still some things that we're working through in terms of how we're seeing things, and you know, as a QB you have to be an extension of the offensive coordinator when you're on the field. Takes a little bit of time, but I think we're getting to a pretty good spot."

He's the assistant OL coach, Ryan Wendell