Beck Water

I Hear You, for staying comfortable, colder dry weather is always much easier than cold rain. But, the hard part of cold rain is staying dry especially when pressure from sitting/bending knees pulls the raingear against your body, so I thought the skirt thing was genius for a situation where one isn't moving around.

Always enjoy Kubiak's analysis and his grading system, which is based on "do your job on each play" and doesn't get swayed by the ooohs and aaaahs. He started out a critic of Josh, then started seeing more and more good plays. I think he's been a fan for a while now. Writes a great piece where he breaks down plays and explains why it works and such - always a good read, especially online where the film clips and diagrams show up well. But he's usually critical of Josh not getting down when he runs, taking unnecessary hits, etc. Now, I think he's been abducted by aliens and replaced by a replicant. Prove Me Wrong @JoshBarnett I don't have a problem with the run play call per-se. But Allen doesn't just "jump into a pile of defenders", he goes up as though he's trying to hurdle Devin McCourty and friends in a QB sneak type play. And in slow mo it doesn't look so bad, but Allen gets hit hard in the head by defenders running to the pile, hard enough that I thought he might get pulled and sent to the "blue tent of doom" by the INC. It was 2nd and 8. If Josh didn't go up over the defenders, he wouldn't have gotten the first down, but he would have made it 3rd and short, 3rd and 2 maybe if he trucks McCourty a little. And he wouldn't have gotten a "line drive up the middle" from Devin McCourty's helmet or his head snapped forward by Myles Bryant. OK, it's still a fine analysis, worth reading IMO. But that play makes me wince every time I see it, so while I agree it was a well designed play called at a good time, I can't believe Kubiak didn't have anything critical to say about Josh choosing to go up in the air like that. Even Allen said "he's got to make better decisions than that, that one hurt" in the post-game show. PS for those who don't think it's fair to criticize Davis for not running the same route as well as Diggs did, there's a good explanation why this is a route that really has to be "sold" to the DB and that makes all the difference. Davis is capable of making that sale - differently than Diggs, but same result - but for whatever reason he didn't/couldn't.

There's a post by Shaw66 somewhere describing his cold/wet outfit. It features cutting the bottom off a hefty trash bag and wearing it like a skirt, among other tips.

FWIW this is still going on today https://nypost.com/2022/10/06/bengals-joe-burrow-ive-forgotten-parts-of-games-after-hits/

This doesn't exactly make it sound as though OBJ is healthy enough to contribute.

Depends upon the point trying to be made. If we're asking "how likely is it that the guy will drop a catchable ball?", % is the correct way. If you're responding to someone who's claiming we couldn't find 14 drops or bad plays to make a "lowlight reel" for Diggs, pointing out that they have the same number of scored drops is relevant. Drop stats are usually pretty conservative and differ between the outfits putting them out, so it's a pretty good guess that if there are 7 scored drops, there are as many again "catchable" balls that weren't scored as drops, especially out of a much higher number of targets. Again, not at all trying to rag on Diggs who is legit one of the top receivers in the league, but to point out that every receiver has bad plays, and a player's "bad play clips" aren't a fair picture at all.

He got $1.75M counting his $0.5M signing bonus, but it's not clear to me if that was normalized to a year, or if he got that for the 8 games he was with the Rams. Much as I would enjoy the sweet, sweet sight of Jerry Jones tears, I can't see driving a multi-year cap decision with the desire for them.

Understood, that’s what I meant…it wasn’t just Knox bad catch % that was concerning, though, it was his # of drops. To his credit, he faced it and put a lot of work into an eye coordination training program and seems to have improved. I hope you’re right it will change. Knox is open a lot, with (as I said in another thread) often enough green around him to plant a Christmas tree farm and trim the trees on the way to the first down marker. But this year, he’s being used a lot to chip and release, or as the outlet. The reason that’s probably relevant to bring in here, is that when Josh is not looking at Knox and his prospective Christmas Tree Farm, sometimes he’s fixed on Gabe Davis and forces a ball to Davis which would be a total circus catch (if not a hospital ball) if caught, or which is jumped and picked, or just thrown away in Gabe’s direction. He’s so good, and he’s the only WR currently on the team who has shown the ability to make those “Damn! OK!!!!” Catches. But he’s 8th for # drops on the listing where Gabe is #3 (of course, as a %, Diggs is lower).

You’re quite correct on Davis having a low catch %. I thought the concern with Knox, was less the overall target % than the drops. That’s my concern with Davis, anyway - not so much the overall catch % when targeted, but his scored drops, and his failure to haul in some balls that are difficult enough they aren’t drops, but the #1 or 2 WR on a team really should make. As far as his overall catch % I was watching film on a couple games, and frankly, Josh Allen does him no favors. He’s been locking on to Davis as a target and if he can’t make the throw, he throws it away - at best. At worst, he tries to force it in there, resulting in the route being jumped and a pick. But yes, even if we grant him a pass on his overall catch % Davis doesn’t make catches he could and should. My intended point, which I’m sure I could have made more clearly, is that if I wanted to put together a film clip of 14 bad plays by Diggs, I could - because as good as he is as a WR, he has had as many scored drops as Davis at this point, and some of them are balls that you look at and say “Damn, you gotta catch that!”. I acknowledged that Diggs does have more targets (and an overall higher catch % of course) so his “good plays” tape would be longer.

Fair point, and I didn’t mean to be singling you out as one of the tar and pitchforks crowd. I should have written to be clear I was speaking more generally there. It’s true that Davis is nearer the top of the league in “drops” than we’d like our #2 receiver to be, and some of them would have been game-impactful plays. I’ve pointed this out before. There have also been balls that aren’t scored drops and were contested, but that we’d really like to have someone besides Diggs who can reliably catch. But it’s also true that he’s made some difficult contested catches that swung the game for the Bills. IMO, it’s also true that Josh Allen has been doing Davis no favors. He routinely throws to him in close coverage and sometimes off target. Anyway, I think we can both agree that Davis needs to up his hands game and his route game. But he seems like a fierce competitor who cares about his craft, so let’s hope he will.

That’s just nasty, IMHO. FWIW, Diggs has the same number of scored drops as Davis (on more targets, of course) and a number of “damn, can’t believe he didn’t get that one” catches. Just as you can make any player look marvelous if you put together a highlight film, you can make any player look terrible if you put together a lowlight film. You could also put together a highlight film of Davis and say if he drops a couple of those we have 5 losses. Look, Davis has had his struggles and he needs to “be the man he can be” and step up his game, but I hate this “let’s flog the whipping boy” approach.

“Ya gotta carry out the fake at least all the way to the sideline, don’t you? Hobble a little bit or something.” Yeah, that was blatant.

It’s the sort of thing the Pats love to do, that has too much “plausible deniability” for the refs to view it as a foul. “Oh, did I kick him in the head? I surely didn’t mean to, I was just getting up”. Like Mac Jones nut-shotting the opponent’s safety, right before the guy picked him, which served him right. (Hmmm, who was that….I was watching a Manningcast, and Peyton and Eli were commenting on it, so it must have been the Bears.)

I didn’t notice extra fidgits, but he did seem a bit uncomfortable - I put it down to maybe he’s fighting a cold (because of the signs in his face) I know, I’m just trying to riff on it because of the “dog ate my donut” story. Losing your donut to the dog must be extra hard if you’re fighting the munchies.

He’s sad because his dog stole the donut he took home on Friday and ate it! Actually he looks to me as though he’s fighting through a cold. There’s something about the face - kind of hollows under the eyes, a bit of puffiness leading out from the nose that creates lines underneath it, his mouth was open as though he can’t breathe well through his nose, and he overall looks tired.’ Maybe he and Beane were burning the midnight oil having roster discussions. I can not imagine that for McD! Although, if it were true, it would explain the extreme sadness about the dog eating the donut he took home. I bet Belicheck’s dog wouldn’t dare eat his donut.

Bills didn't have too much trouble defensively with the Dolphins offense in September - 212 yds offensively, 15 1st downs - even with 4/5 of our starting secondary out for various reasons and missing Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips. What do you see the Phins as having improved on offense since then? It was our offense that struggled to clinch the deal in the red zone, and to protect Allen as we started the day without Mitch Morse and our OLmen were dropping like flies. Since then I see us as having improved on offense by finding a better run game and a more patient passing game. My biggest worry is the Bills OL.

No Cheetahs on the Jets?

The contract voids when he's released. I don't *think* the Panthers have any salary guarantees to cover.

Here's the thing I found on Gilliam: Gilliam is a regular on ST, taking 80-85% of the ST snaps. And the Bills are known to keep players on ST when they're too injured to play on O or D. So I think he got hurt. In other news, Hamlin not to be suspended for the Jakobi Meyers hit, but he could be fined (SO bogus):

Preview of Jets at Bills (among others) Will come out in 4 hrs I would actually be happy to hear "Day to Day". I'm concerned for the dread high-ankle-sprain "week to week"

OK more injuries to get updates on: In addition to Dawkins and Quessenberry, Jordan Phillips.

Welllll....we have 5 games left. $5M, or $1M/game, is $18M over a 17 game, 1 bye season. Toss in a couple million of incentives and you're there.

Not sure if the betting odds thread is desired as the game week thread, wasn't obvious to me Let's let Dion Dawkins start off the crazies Does anyone know when we hear from McDermott and the coordinators? Would normally hear Monday after a Sunday game. Stuff I wanna know: 1) Bills Injury report. I think Gilliam was reported to not be taking ST snaps (or any snaps) in the 2nd half of the NE game. Front and Center: what is the status of Dion Dawkins ANKLE? Have we all been holding prayer vigils/sending "Get Well" cards? How about Quessenberry? Even if Dion can go, unless he's healed up we're one bad snap away from....Bobby Hart? Who else are we worried about? 2) Jets Injury report. Quinnen Williams left the game at least briefly yesterday. Sometimes guys "play through" an injury that keeps them out when it stiffens up and swells. Anyone else? 3) Marquez Stevenson Watch. Has to be activated December 7 or placed on season-ending IR, I believe.

Oh, now, that makes me happier. I hear they're staying on the West Coast all week this week, though, so they're not making back-to-back flights out there. And you're right, no sympathy here.