Beck Water

Well, we're gonna have to agree to disagree on this one. I think Beane prioritizes what the coach wants much more than you believe.

A good GM will try to acquire players the OC identifies as necessary to execute his vision of the offense. After 4 years of relative consistency under Daboll, the Bills have now had 3 OCs in as many years. Why would one expect consistency from changing OCs with different visions as to what our offense should look like? Dorsey's vision of the offense appeared to involve small shifty guys (McKenzie, Hines, Harty, even Shakir). So far, it looks like Joe Brady's vision of the offense involves more power and less finesse. Week 1 thru 10 with Dorsey as OC the Bills were a heavily pass-favored team, and it wasn't always working - whether because of the receivers, or because of Josh Allen's sprained throwing shoulder, I don't know. 58% pass, 42% run. Week 11 thru 18 with Brady as OC, the Bills were a run-favored team, 48% pass, 52% run Whether that was driven by the personnel at hand, or reflects what Brady really wants to do with a free hand, I don't know - but I would say that moving on from Mitch Morse to Connor McGovern and drafting Coleman would argue that Brady wants the offense to look different.

Aaron Quinn believes both Shorter and Cephus will show out well in training camp and preseason, generating a lot of "buzz" amoung excessively enthusiastic and devoted fans (stans = stalkers + fans) who will gather together in a vocal support group (hive). Basically that they're gonna be the new Isaiah Hodgins

I don't know where you're finding that. He had 0 catches last season, because he was suspended indefinitely by the league last April for gambling on games, and re-instated this April. He had 2 catches the previous year (2022), that would be in part because he was put on IR (can't find for what. 2021, also IR with shoulder injury. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/quintez-cephus/32004345-5042-2041-b441-60bc9cb55ad1 Basically another guy who "if he didn't have bad luck with injuries, he'd have no luck at all" - he had a broken leg that cost him a college season. But he also has some shady ***** in his past besides the gambling suspension https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quintez_Cephus Does make it kind of puzzling that the Bills seem to hold up their noses at recent draft picks who may have issues.

The problem with KJ Hamler (and Cephus for that matter) is that they've been plagued by injuries. Hamler has had two torn ACLs (HS and pro), two hammies serious enough for IR as a pro, a torn pec, and pericarditis. If it weren't for bad injury luck, he'd have no luck at all. Isabella came out with questions about his hands, and has never managed to get on the field very much. The positive thing is he saw some ST snaps last season - not as the returner, but presumably as a gunner due to his speed. So if Brady has plans that require a guy with their skillsets, it f'in sucks that we didn't take a draft shot at a similar profile player who hasn't racked up the years of ?? If we're talking dark horse WR at the bottom of the roster, Bryan Thompson interests me. He's not a super speedy guy, but the draft profile I found (and I had to dig) had very positive things to say about his route-running abilities and release moves, and concluded he was worth stashing on a PS for a year to see if he could develop. So we signed him as an UDFA and stashed him....now we'll see.

Yes. That's what makes it frustrating. Cook has the potential to be a talented "freakazoid" for us, if he could clean up those issues a bit.

I hate to break it to you guys but he ran a 4.62 40 yd dash He needs to ***** catch the ***** ball and ***** hold on to it. 11.1% drops and 4 fumbles is not acceptable for a featured guy.

I think it's both. As a GM, it's Beane's job to supply his HC and coordinators with the players they tell him they need to build a top team. If Sean McDermott didn't insist upon a full DL rotation as a core part of his defensive strategy, Beane wouldn't be constantly focused on signing FA and drafting capable DL players or guys that they are confident they can develop into capable DL players. What's more, McDermott is - loaded word, but, fixated? on the characters of his DLmen. His defense critically depends upon the DL maintaining run gap integrity and not just pinning their ears back and going after the QB. There's a story that when Andy Reid fired McDermott as DC in Philly after 2 11-5 and 10-6 seasons where the D went from 4th to 19th to 21st, McDermott immediately started gathering feedback from players, coaching assistants, former players. One of the key feedback he reportedly got, from a respected player, was "you got to make sure all your players are bought in (to his system). He took it to heart. That's one reason McDermott is slow to move on from guys he perceives as "bought in" even if they're under-performing or injured excessively (Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, etc), IMO That said, I had a piece elsewhere before the draft about Carolina's pattern drafting for offense, and I absolutely see echoes of that in how Beane prioritizes defense - he'll say he doesn't, but he does. People like to talk about the Bills drafting Carolina players, but the real issue IMHO is Beane having internalized Carolina's lack of urgency about supplying premier offensive talent to go around their star QB. But you can see Beane's flexibility in terms of what offense he is supplying. Daboll and Dorsey wanted small speedy guys hence stockpiling Nyheim Hines, McKenzie, Deonte Harty. Looks as though Brady may have different ideas about our offensive identity hence Keon Coleman. Agree. "Rebuild" was what McDermott started and Beane continued when he arrived. It was said at the time as a critique of Whaley that the Bills had the fewest drafted players on their roster. But as part of the rebuild, Beane jettisoned any player he could get any kind of reasonable draft pick return from. And many of the guys they jettisoned, went on to play multiple years for other teams, it's not like they can't ball. Darby for a 3rd round pick; Cordy Glenn to move up 9 slots from 21 to 12 in the first round; Dareus for a 5th round and to shed cap etc etc (there are more I forget now). He didn't do that because they had better (at the time) players on the roster, he did that because he was collecting draft capital to move up and get a QB at all costs, so he had to move on from anyone he could get value from. This was a re-set because we were soldiering on with the same core cast of players hoping to change this and that and get them a ring, and it hasn't worked out, but they've aged out. So we're moving on.

Huh? Allen is under contract through 2028 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/25102/josh-allen Perhaps you are misunderstanding the "potential out" phrase in Spotrac? It indicates the point where the team would take less dead cap hit to trade or cut the player than the cap hit to keep him on the roster. But it's not the player's choice.

Here's an article that suggests, maybe they are https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39632786/xavier-worthy-nfl-combine-40-yard-dash-becoming-obsolete

With Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman in the room, those WR meetings are NOT gonna be dull

TBH I'm totally lost. I feel like it's the NFL's equivalent of ESPN's "total QBR", something that requires so much code no ordinary human can understand it. I want a formula I can sit down with a pencil and paper and a big-button calculator and grind through I can't even figure out what the floor is for a qualifying contract. I'll stop griping now https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks Anyway, we lost Gabe Davis, who signed for $13M AAV We lost Leonard Floyd, who signed for $10M AAV We signed Curtis Samuel, who signed for 3 yr, $24M or $8M AAV but evidently he doesn't count? Everybody else we lost or signed is apparently too small potatoes. So it seems to indicate a 4th/5th for Gabe and a 5th/6th for Floyd?

I dunno, but just to temper expectations I would think any signings would take place after May 1 - or are we 100% out of the comp pick business anyway this season? I would think Gabe Davis and Tyrell Dodson would help us get something....

And with Detroit, he had a decent QB throwing to him in Goff, but he was injured and placed on IR, only played 11 games.

Right. Josh Allen ran a 4.76. Ask any of the DLmen or LB who've chased him around the back field or any of the LB or DB who've chased him down the field if they think he plays faster than that. I've noticed that - Coleman looks slow and kind of lumbering when he runs and then you notice all the guys scurrying after him . So we'll see what we'll see when he has 11 guys with NFL speed chasing him. Article on 40 yd dash usefulness: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39632786/xavier-worthy-nfl-combine-40-yard-dash-becoming-obsolete It quotes one GM, Brandon Beane:

On the highlight tape - the hurdles LOL. STOP THAT, BOTH OF YOU! YOU BOYS STOP THAT RIGHT NOW! I guess this is where sometimes folks wonder if Beane and McDermott's focus on bringing in high-character fellows holds us back. The Colts took some risks on high ceiling/big red flag guys in Mitchel and the Edge guy with the neck problems. No Riskit, No Biscuit.

FIFY

I think this is a fair take. But given the Bills picks, where in particular do you think they could have taken higher talent at more premium positions?

Not only that - he offered to share it with the lady reporter "we can go half". Smooooooooth...... I would say he's got the "handle the press corps" down pat.

I would like to know what DJ Chark has left, myself. He was a legit "fast guy" coming out - 4.31 40-time. He showed he can put up 1000+ yd season with "meh" QB like Minshew and Foles throwing to him. He had some very bad luck with a broken ankle early in the season for 2021, and then an ankle injury early in 2022 that put him on IR. 500+ yard guy the last 2 seasons despite that and a rookie QB on a bad team in CAR last season. He's only 27. On the other hand, if he still has it physically, it would be surprising he's still on the FA market, so IDK.

Gabe was on the Bills 4 years. In 2021, he had 10 receptions for 242 yds in 2 playoff games. In 2022, starting 15 games, he had 48/836 reg season plus 8/147 in playoffs and in 2023, he had 45/746 regular season. In the latter half of this year where "Josh's connection with big limited non-separating Gabe Davis detereriorated to the point of non-existance" according to you, he had 2 games of over 100 yds: Philly 6 for 105 and LAC 4 for 130. Would you like to find an example of how Josh thrived better with "fast, shifty WRs who separate well" during the latter half of last season? Oh, that's right, you can't - because Khalil Shakir, who was playing very well, had 2 games of over 100 yds, Jets 3/115 and Mia 6/105. But in that latter half, big bodied TE Kincaid had 3 games for 80+ yds. I would personally say there were other things going on at the end of last season that affected passing game production including but not limited to: Josh's throwing shoulder sprain; a new OC; and whatever tf was going on with Diggs, our #1 receiver, that affected everyone's production. Do you really want to 'hang your hat' on Gabe Davis as an example of how Josh has "not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation"? It seems to me at times, Josh clicked with him Just Fine. The shoe-string sideline catches in the 2020 Indy game, for example, or the 2021 KC game where he went off for 8 catches, 201 yds and 4 TDs. #FACTS: Josh racked up more yards with Davis than he did with anyone else but Diggs. Now you can nitpick that statement, but the fact is, Josh was pretty productive with Davis. He certainly liked to target him downfield, whether he had separation or not, especially after Beasley was gone. OK, so we've had what? 6? smaller, more shifty WR - Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Sanders, McKenzie, Crowder. 3 of them (Diggs, Beasley, Brown) Josh had arguably more success with than with Davis. 3 of them (Sanders, McKenzie, Crowder) did not seem to have a good connection with Josh; I would say he had a better connection with Davis than with them. Maybe forming a connection might have more to do with the capabilities of the receiver and what other threats were on the field, and less to do with the receiver's size? Which brings me to where you have a valid point - Gabe Davis was a limited receiver in that he was stiff and ran a limited route tree which, for whatever reason, he couldn't seem to extend. He was also frequently hampered by ankle injuries. But where's the logic to extend that to all big bodied receivers? Are you trying to argue that they're all gonna be stiff and run limited route trees and not develop because Davis was that way, and Fat Kelvin was...well, Fat Kelvin? That would be.....illogical. But let's cut to the chase: The Bills didn't draft Keon Coleman at the top of the 2nd because they think he is stiff and runs a limited route tree and can't separate. They drafted him because they think he is a high-ceiling guy with exceptional hands and catching skills, who will be able to use his basketball-derived flexibility and weight shift abilities to rapidly improve his route running and his release moves. If you listen to Beane's presser, he is very explicit about this (17:39): he says Keon has "a really good release package for a college player, kid who's 20" and that "it'll improve - he's gonna play tougher corners so he's gonna have to improve with it" He said "Of the bigger guys, we thought his release was as good as any." Beane doesn't think he's a super-slow guy: he said he has much faster game speed, "noting the Bills had access to his GPS information in college, which pegged him closer to the 4.5 range". Beane said he is good against press. So, one of two things is true: Either Beane and his scouts assessment of Coleman is correct, and he'll develop in to "all that and a bag of chips" and be able to fill that X receiver role; Or, they're mistaken, and the various media draft scouts and pundits are correct. But I don't think it has anything to do with Josh thriving more with small shifty receivers than with big, above-the-rim, wide catch radius guys. It has everything to do with the quality of Brandon Beane and his scouts' player personnel evaluation abilities.

IT'S A TRICK! It's true, but meaningless; what big-bodied WR catch meister WR has Allen had the opportunity to form a connection with? The only one I can think of is 2018 Fat Kelvin, who, as I noted above, was RIP at the time with the only pass he was interested in being preceded by "puff, puff,..." He had the lowest catch rate in the league at the point where we released him, commentators had been noting his lack of effort on the field for weeks, and neither the Mahomes-led Chiefs nor the Giants @Logic, you started this out by stating "Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation." When, other than rookie year with Fat Kelvin, in Josh's 6 years in the league, has he played with "big bodied WR", whether they struggle with separation or not?

I had exactly the same question. The only big-bodied WR I can recall Josh Allen having on the Bills was Fat Kelvin Benjamin, for 12 weeks during which he seemed RIP (retired in place), with the league's worst catch rate of 35%. It wasn't just Josh Allen, either, since after the Bills cut him the Chiefs (with Pat Mahomes on pace for an MVP season) picked him up, and couldn't get anything out of him.

LOL I came here to say, "what, we wanted a guy Spencer Brown could call 'shorty'? Niiice, does that mean he can not get poached?

Punt return guy, OK that explains it. I was like 5'9" CB with 8" hands and 30" arms, WTF Beane?