Bottom line: Josh Allen has already charted his own path so I think we know nothin’ about what’s going on and what his prognosis is.
I think the best info that we have is from Carson Palmer. He talked about when he tore his UCL, it didn’t hurt and he finished the game, but the next week in practice some of his balls would just drop and become dirt balls. Not every ball, he said every 3rd or so just wouldn’t go where he wanted. He rested and scar tissue formed. Josh Allen had a less severe tear his rookie season and was out 5 weeks (4 games plus a bye I think), and was wearing a brace and seeming kinda tentative a couple weeks more.
Josh Allen hasn’t rested. He got a PRP injection (confirmed by Josh) which normally take a couple weeks to start working. I think he’s somewhat hesitant and while he says he doesn’t feel it during a game, it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s pretty sore (and maybe moving backwards in healing) after games where he’s throwing 40+ passes like Minn or Detroit. I think the bigger effect may be limited practice during the week - he isn’t going on the injury report as limited, but he said in an interview it does limit how much he throws. Maybe he doesn’t throw for guys after practice, or repeat a throw several times to get it right.
The one thing I know is that the human body can flout established medical protocol and show a remarkable ability to heal while being used - there are cases of long distance hikers, say, who injure an ankle and keep hiking, and gradually get better while hiking every day carrying a heavy pack while medical advice would say a month or 6 weeks of rest is indicated. It takes longer but eventually the healing is as good or better
WE’re at 5 weeks. My guess would be that he’ll start to feel better in a couple more weeks (6 or 7) but that’s only a guess.