Beck Water

Tre Wingo talks over the Bills "ugly" win with Andre Reed Fun fact that came out: That was the 8th straight game where the Jets D did not allow 100 yd rusher OR 100 yd receiver. Jets D is legit. Consistent, and Legit.

I think that 2nd link doesn't include yesterdays game. At least, it shows Diggs and Davis both with 6, which, I'm pretty sure, was the case before Sunday. Pro-football-reference has now updated and shows them both with 7 Point made earlier (sorry don't remember by whom) that # drops doesn't tell a complete story, since (for example) Diggs has more than twice as many targets as Davis. looks as though they just updated it to include Week 14. You Sure About That? This site says "through week 14" https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php Looks like Tampa and GB 1st This site looks like it just updated to include week 14 and calculates drop %, which I think is fair. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/advanced.htm Bills seem to be #6, right after....the Dolphins Straight numbers has Bills #3, again tied with Dolphins, Green Bay #1

Shouldn't we wear all white if it's a snowstorm? Make us harder to see? Or are we wanting our WR to stand out so Josh can find them?

Tua got married Got mad the reporters learned Just thought that was weird

Don't tell me let me guess - they're describing this as "wide open" and "a ball he should have caught"? Despite this happening?

Couple of Baldy's Breakdowns

Be nice if "Lord_of_Jord" gave the source for his stats Enquiring minds wish to know: is it also a problem for the Miami Dolphins (tied with the Bills at 23) and the KC Chiefs (1 fewer drop, 22)? In his postgame presser, McDermott was asked about that play call and said "we had a good play call there and liked it, just got to execute a little bit better right there". He seemed very matter of fact and not like he was covering something up, so he does not appear to agree with you.

OK, I'll add in a bit more detail here and say on the all-22 plays I've watched, our receivers actually did win eventually and come open. In fact on one play I watched 2 out of 3 came open. But you're absolutely correct, by the time that happened, the OL had broken down and Josh had to take a checkdown to Cook. I'm rolling off the top of my head here, but IIRC at the point where the WR came open on their relatively deep routes, 3.3 or 3.4 seconds had elapsed and Josh needed to throw at 2.5 or 2.6 seconds. It's the problem I see with Dorsey's "deep routes or checkdowns" play designs.

I don't wanna rain on your parade, here, but Mike White completed 28 of 47 passes and the 19 that didn't wind up in the WR hands were not all throw-aways. Do you really think the difference between 28/47 (59.6%) and 16/27 (59.2%) is where you want to run up your flag for "show(ing) him how it's done"?

I agree that McKenzie should be focused on improving and stepping up, but if it's a contest and clearly for "fun", I don't think goofing around with fans for an hour or two on his evening off indicates lack of focus or interferes with that. But again, it has to be managed carefully to avoid being a bad look, like excuse making.

I'll put this a step further. You can usually tell something about how teams view guys by looking at their contracts. Crowder signed a 1 yr contract for $2M: $1.12M salary, $795k signing plus workout bonus. McKenzie signed a 2 yr contract with guarantees only this season, $1.35M salary, $700k signing plus workout - it's really a 1 yr contract with the team's option to hang onto him for a second season if they wish. They really signed for about the same $$. That says to me that the team did not view either Crowder or McKenzie as the starter going into camp; the team wanted them to compete and either platoon them, or "best man win".

I agree with you, but I'll wait and see how it comes across. In the past at Mister's Isaiah has kept it pretty real and sometimes hands-on, from salsa-dancing to demonstrating with his hands why catching a hard thrown ball is painful on the thumbs after a while. He may not make it a personal spat. If it is, I do agree with you it's not a good look. If McKenzie comes across as making excuses for what McDermott regards as "a need to be better with fundamentals" on the offense (not calling out McK specifically), he's gonna find himself in the dog house.

I hate to say it and there are reasons behind it, but yeah - especially in the first half, the OL had a huge impact on the game. I'll cross reference this here. There was a declined penalty on the 2ndary, but basically all of our 5 accepted penalties were on the OL, and a couple of additional penalties were declined because the result of the play was bad enough that the loss of down was more significant. That's 5 penalties for 35 yds, and put us consistently in x "and long", mostly in the first half.

Correct. Dawkins was flagged 1x for false start and 3x for offensive holding yesterday (once was 3D and declined). 3 of them were in the 1st half. No penalties in the 4Q. That's 3 of the Bills 5 accepted penalties right there. The other two were on Mitch Morse or Josh Allen (ineligible downfield) and Rodger Saffold (false start). There were a couple of other declined penalties on the OL - offensive holding on Saffold was one. I don't know what 'regressing' means to you, but there's not a mystery as to what was going on. Dawkins is playing on a high ankle sprain, and isn't as mobile as he normally is - against what's quite possibly the best DL in the league, certainly one of the best 3 or 4. He's not doing it because he loves to play on a high ankle sprain, he's doing it because he and the coaches believe he's a better option to protect Josh than Quessenberry, also playing on an injured ankle. I don't think that's regressing, I think that's playing hurt.

Oh, wow, OK. So since the bye week, with this Jets game being an exception, the Bills have had 6 straight games above the league average 120 rush yds per game. Prior to the bye, we were just under the league average with 118 per game; after the bye, average of 148 (including yesterday's below-average rushing). Allen averaged 7.8 rush attempts per game prior to the bye, and 7.4 after the bye, so the improvement is not Josh running more. That usually means improved OL play. I think it's a point that Josh has been taking more sacks (1.7 before the bye, 2.7 afterwards). I'm not sure that's entirely on the OL - someone has stats on the time Josh holds the ball, and I think he's been doubting himself over pulling the trigger trying to avoid interceptions, and maybe not trusting that the ball will go exactly where he wants if he doesn't have time to set and throw, instead of feeling confident he can sling it on the run. Bottom line, with a big exception of last game with Quessenberry in at LT and this game with Dawkins gimping into the locker room pre game and playing on a high ankle, I'm not sure the OL is really playing worse and where they are, I'm not sure it's "regressing" and not playing hurt.

Thank you for the data. To the OP's point - 2 run plays to RBs on 1st down, for 0 and for 1 yd. I think that Dorsey's assessment of their DL was that we weren't going to be able to run the ball very successfully against the Jets DL and LB. Quinnen Williams is a beast, and him having to leave the game ~ halfway through helped us a lot. I think it's notable that 10 of our 24 runs were Josh Allen. Aside from his 16 yd run, Motor had 7 runs averaging 3.2 ypc. Cook was less successful with 1.5 ypc. Again, I can't argue with your point that we need to run the ball more effectively, but I'm also wondering how that is to be done this season.

OK, but when you see something like that, it's good to ask "why"? Let's have a careful look at the chart, which I'm not sure Mr sharpndpensel did. What I see is that all but 2 of Josh's completions were within 5 yds of the LOS, an area where completions over the middle are difficult and dangerous (because of the risk of batted balls). At least one of the longer completions was actually a short completion to Dawson Knox, with good YAC. I think the completion on the L sideline was to Gabe Davis. So I doubt the Bills game plan failed to pick that up, what I think was happening was that Allen was having to live on short dump-offs and had to move out of the pocket before anything deep (L R or C) opened up. The Jets were also pretty determined not to let Allen roll out to the R, which they did last game.

Concur. We under-invested in offense this off-season.

Concur. Big difference in the Bills offensive success without vs with Quinnen Williams in the game. It's getting to that point for me. I don't mind criticism but I like it to be mindful and sensible, which means grounded in observations and facts and not just dumb (he sucks, he drops everything, he drops more than he catches, he's regressing, the OC should be fired etc etc etc)

There's also the question of, if Josh was being pursued does he have time to set and throw? I think one of the problems with his UCL injury is that he needs to pay more mind to good mechanics to throw on target.

So, I haven't seen game film of yesterday and I have a hard time telling what's really going on from TV broadcast. But what I saw for a few games has been, Dorsey's answer to defenses relying on their DL to bring pressure with 4 (or 3) and blanketing the field with 7 (or 8 ) has been to send 3 WR on deep routes and have 2 outlets chip and release for a short passing game. So we either have deep routes that develop late, and we're not getting the protection to wait for them to develop, or we have outlets who chip and release, which makes them not as quick targets as they could be, and sometimes not available with a clear passing lane. Sometimes he sends a receiver or an RB out to the flat. I think Dorsey's idea is that we hit those outlets quickly and accurately, they get 8-10 yds a pop, and it will either get us to the EZ or knock the defenses out of that type of coverage, freeing up the deeper routes. (Daboll had a different approach involving getting Beasley open underneath and scheming guys open deep). This actually worked very well against the Patriots. The problems are, 1) Josh doesn't necessarily make those short "outlet" throws accurately, especially on the move or under pressure. They were his least accurate throws in college and pre draft, and some of the last he improved. 2) Mentally, Josh strongly resists taking the checkdown, and even more resists taking the checkdown promptly, when it is most effective and will get the most yards. 3) when the TE and RB are expected to chip and release, they aren't always available as outlets - if they can't get off the block or are delayed getting off the block. It also becomes predictable. Dorsey needs to mix it up more IMO.

I don't think that's the common use of the word. It usually means returning to a previous, lesser state. So are you thinking the Bills OL returned to how they were playing earlier in the season, or last season, and if so, when? If they are playing poorly, for a variety of reasons including injury and a high level of skill from the opponent, that may not be "regressing". The reason I don't see that as a nitpick, is that it's important to understand why something is happening if you want to change it.

Question: what does "regressing" mean to you? People like to toss that word around a lot (along with "yips"), but it's not always clear what exactly they mean by it. When you have a LT playing on one leg 2 1/2 weeks out from a "high ankle sprain", is that "regressing" or is that "playing injured"?

We both have truths, are mine the same as yours? -Jesus Christ Superstar