Beck Water

Heard a couple of posters here referring to Josh Allen as a "turnover machine" when he runs. Thought it might be of interest to look again at when and why Josh has fumbled this season. I did this earlier (forget when) but a number of games and fumbles have rolled since then. All data are from boxscores on Pro Football Reference Josh has fumbled in 10 of 17 games this season 16 total fumbles (6 fumbles lost) Aborted snap 5 (2) Sack 9 (4) Run 2 (0). The runs are short yardage; in one case Josh lost it on a shotgun snap, scooped it up and ran in for a TD, in the other it was a short run, fighting to avoid a sack. Strip sack is now the most common cause of fumble (more than half), as well as 4 of the 6 lost fumbles Aborted snap 2nd, with 1 of them appearing to be Josh's fault. This is much higher than usual and most likely have to do with 3rd string C or with injury to the C. Interestingly, 6 of the fumbles and 3 lost fumbles were against MIA (1 aborted snap, 5 sacks) Kudos to Josh because earlier in his career, he did fumble an alarming amount when he ran, but for the most part he seems to have gotten to grips with this problem (pun intended) - though I still don't like the way he holds the ball when he runs.

Oh Jesu, Jaur, I did NOT need that visual before bedtime. I'm fragile that way.

So if you're here to talk ball, be the bigger guy, let it roll off your back and show what you're here for. Otherwise you gotta see that posters like myself who are here to talk ball. look at your little jibs and put downs and understandably think you're here on an opposing fan board to start something vs. to share info. You mentioned that Burrow has a bunch of INTs off tipped balls. Allen does also, of course. Any feeling on how many of Burrow's 12 picks are off tips, and were they tipped at the line or in pass defense? I would say usually tipped at the line for Allen, though the WC game featured a pick that was deflected off the receiver's chest/defenders arm. This season, Allen went through a bunch of inexplicable, WTF? interceptions where Bills fans were "what are you DOING?" He had some inexplicable throws in the dirt, for example, and one was picked off on the GB goal line by Jaire Alexander; Allen said he was trying to throw it away but I don't think most people believe that since, from the GB3 Allen could easily hurl it through the back of the EZ. You probably heard some stuff that he tore his ulnar collateral ligament and was thought to need to miss 2-4 weeks; he played that week, but his play was off for a while, lower passing yards, lower completion %. Weather played a role as well - cold rain; snow; bitter cold and wind - but Allen has shown before he can play in weather, so some think the UCL was bothering him and still might, though to a lesser extent. Allen asserted that it didn't bother him during a game, but before the Miami game our OC Dorsey praised Allen for "getting to the point where he can do everything and make all the throws he needs to make" and it's really only the last couple games that the deep ball has re-appeared. There was a stretch week 11-14 where I don't think Allen completed more than a handful of passes more than 20 yds. Of course this coincided with some bad weather games as well so Who Knows? But the ol' Arm Cannon appears to be in good fettle right now.

Well, no, but you might ack that people interpreted you as they did, because of how you wrote it, not "LOL" at them. It's not a matter of my liking, after all, but of writing being how we convey ideas. Like when I write confusingly (which happens more often than I'd like) and people misinterpret I'm like "I could have phrased it better, this is what I meant" To put a little ball in here, I would agree they are both excellent, but very different QBs. You mentioned Allen fumbling. I haven't updated it but about 3/4 of the way through the season I went through and binned every fumble into 3 categories: 1) QB center exchange 2) sack 3) while running The finding was that very few of Allen's fumbles this season have been on runs (hope that continues, as he did have ball security issues as a runner earlier in his career). The largest number were on the QB center exchange, with strip sacks #2. The cause of the QB center exchange problems, were getting down to our 3rd string center in a couple of games, and also Morse (starter) trying to play through an elbow injury/come back a bit too soon. Hope this is sort of the content you came for.

It's this kind of thing. Whenever something is directed at you in the least little way, you one up on the personal attack. "little fella" "a few fragile ones like you" "if it hurts your feelings" blah blah, I'm not motivated to do the sort of research I used to but it's caught my eye because it's piling up. We've always welcomed fans of other teams who as the guidelines say "come here in the spirit of good sportsmanship and with the intent to exchange good dialog with Bills fans". I can't fault your responses to boyst 'cuz pugnacity is his schtick and "find what you bring", but it's otherwise getting a bit deep in here for "just here to talk ball". At least, when I walk into a room of strangers and want to establish my cred as someone who's here for the discussion the phrasing quoted above is not how I'd go on. It seems more of an "I want to get in your face and bump chests and establish I'm the big dog" kind of behavior JMO take it or leave it now back to talk ball.

Um... if you mean that Allen can throw the ball further than Burrow, then your statement "“I think Josh is an awesome player and would never say he is overrated even tho his only trait that he has over Burrow is rushing (he can throw it a mile)” does not make sense. This is getting to be piled a bit deep here.

You could always try listening to Mike McDaniel's postgame presser I swear I thought I'd wandered into a private counseling session and a football presser broke out

Sticking a bunch of people into an ignore file does not censor them; they are still free to post whatever they like, but I don't have to read it and be aggravated or tempted to reply to persistently antagonistic or attention seeking behaviors (thus amplifying them). Since I'm here for my own enjoyment talking football and it makes the board more enjoyable for me, that's how i roll. YMMV.

Yes. Cincy IIRC has pretty much a quick rhythm passing game, and Burrows is expert at knowing where his "answer" is and finding it.

Allen said that his brother Jason caught endless passes for Jordan Palmer's group when he was prepping for the draft in 2018, and that he could play TE. His father Joel once said in an interview that Jason was actually the better athlete of the two, but that he went to college on a baseball scholarship and hurt his back, ending any chance for a pro sports career. Personally I want someone to show up at a Bills party in a Gorilla suit

So you may have all this, but that was a play where the Bengals rushed 4 and left 7 in coverage. They had a bunch formation on the R and Knox on the L. There wasn't a hot read or a quick outlet pass unless that was supposed to be Knox. Josh dropped back and was bouncing a bit, almost standing still, waiting for something to develop downfield. Something strange about where Shakir was headed vs. where Knox was, can't tell you what's up there except I don't think that's what was designed. Dawkins was beat and was holding, but Josh had maybe 2.5 seconds? Not enough for the play. Here's a shot just a bit earlier. See what I mean? Dawkins beat like drum. Brown about to be beat. At this point, pocket to step into prognosis does not look positve although Morse regrouped and Saffold came over to help Bates.

But what are your feelings about their reaction to our reaction to their reaction to our reaction on their reaction? He's alive, so

I was going to say that Josh didn't have a pocket to step into or time for the hot read, but actually he did have room to step up, and he could have pitched it to Singletary, I think. But those decisions are bam-bam and an instant earlier, it looked as though both Morse and Bates were gonna lose their guys. Singletary did a good job of being QB friendly.

You are absolutely correct. Dawkins was beaten like a drum. Was holding, too; didn't help him. seems to me like we don't run draws very often

I'm reminded of the joke about the mule trained with loving kindness. McDermott may need to bring a stick I do have the impression that for all the "holy spirit" that Morse joked about coming out of Dorsey, he doesn't have the pipeline into the space between Allen's ears that Daboll constructed and I'm not sure he has the capability to construct it. 🤷‍♂️ We may have to live with it, but I don't think McDermott has any intention of living with it. I think what I come up with for the throw to Brown, is that some thing was off there, but without knowing the play, none of us outside OBD can know what. Brown 100% did something unusual with his route - he checked or paused. If McD, knowing the play, felt it was a bad decision, and Josh is willing to acknowledge that, I have to go with them. Totally agree that Josh should have read the blitz and looked for the hot read.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure they did that at times earlier in the game as well

I'm spitballing from memory, but I think we did rush only 3 in our earlier game against KC. We were trying to be confusing with coverage, showing blitz and then dropping into coverage but leaving an LB as a spy (Milano). It was one of the things that stood out about having Von Miller, that we were able to get effective pressure with 4 or even (if my memory is correct) only 3 at times. Well, Hey, Y'all

Wait, Cris Collinsworth is not a HOF WR? JK I knew that, it's just his affect

I Don't Think So That said.... I had the impression McDermott is nonplussed and a bit at his wit's end with some of Josh's decision making the last couple weeks, and that if he had hair left, he'd be pulling it out. He said there's a balance there, you prepare, you put the work in, and there's calculated risk, calculated being the operative, the key word. He was asked if he felt the Bills had dodged a bullet there with the turnovers, and he said "Yeah. I mean, that's not the way you want to live your life, if you want to win games. That's proven, in the NFL. I trust our players, though, that they're going to take great ownership of it, and get it corrected." Later, he said "it's something that's been addressed, directly, indirectly and will continue to be addressed, one way or the other, as we continue down the road here." Not quite sure what "one way or the other" could mean, LOL. On the other hand, going back up to @Bocephuz OP, on his Tuesday appearance on Kyle Brandt's Basement, Josh said that he felt he only made one really bad decision in the Dolphins game, and that was the deep throw to Brown. I don't know if I agree with that; I think on 2nd down, a decision to throw to a tightly covered Beasley with 2 other defenders in the vicinity, vs Diggs short of the chains but very wide open, really ought to be considered.

Listening to McDermott's press conference earlier today. He seemed a little distracted. Anyway, he praised the heck out of the Bengals: "Skill level is off the charts, Joe and what he's accomplished to this point as a QB in this league. He's extremely smart, accurate, the list goes on, he's an elite QB for good reason. Then the skill that they have with the receivers, the tight ends, the backs, they're as skilled as there is in the league" To listen to him talk, you'd think that their back is rushing for 4.6 ypc and ours for 3.9 ypc, instead of vice versa. You'd think that their TE had 517 yds receiving and ours had 414, instead of vice versa. I do give them the edge at WR. Their top 3 WR account for 2837 yds, our top-3 for 2688. I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I know McDermott's mantra is "humble and hungry", but just as there's a line between aggressive and reckless, there's a line between humble and recognizing your opponent, and doubting yourself. I hope he's on the "right side" that's all.

That's where I am. I don't think this is something that's gonna heal up quickly for Phillips Milano was at one point "one arming" it with a partially torn pec. He came back, but the Bills shut him down with IR (was 3 games at the time), then worked him back in with a "snap count"

Now wait a minute here. Nothing wrong with cinnamon in chili However, I draw the line at allspice and cloves. What the hell are you making there, Chili or medieval-style Mince Meat Pie? Cleveland I believe @Ethan in Cleveland

Don't Know what they're saying, Don't Care to go look. They can't have it both ways though. Either they get the "Great Coach and Team" Karma points for being touched by the tragedy that unfolded on their field and reacting to it in a human way (so pausing the game was a mutual decision). I think they deserve them, myself OR It was a Bills-driven decision while the Bengals really wanted to continue a game where it looked like we just saw a teammate die on the field with "you just want an excuse, you want no part of us, you Weenies!" in which case they can Bite my *****-Covered Shoesole. Either Or, Not Both. They're a talented team. 7th ranked offense in the league, 6th ranked defense in the league. Sounds like they think they're better than whoever is 2nd at both Guess we'll find out

Indeed it does. Let us please not neglect that Singletary contributed one of the most difficult, hard fought 7 yard runs I've seen from a Bill to gain the first down and let us close out the Dolphins game. Then there is his role in pass protection, where he was a Boss. In his presser today, the normally chary of praise McDermott said outright that he thought all of our backs played really well this week but then called out Devin in particular and said he was "really proud of him" That's where I am. I think opening Crowder's 21-day window is a win-win situation for both sides. One, if there is an injury (avert!), he may be ready to step up and contribute. Two, Crowder is an UFA this off season; assuming he wants to continue his career, it's a signal to potential suitors in FA that the Bills thought he was healing well and likely to be able to contribute.