Beck Water

Wait, Cris Collinsworth is not a HOF WR? JK I knew that, it's just his affect

I Don't Think So That said.... I had the impression McDermott is nonplussed and a bit at his wit's end with some of Josh's decision making the last couple weeks, and that if he had hair left, he'd be pulling it out. He said there's a balance there, you prepare, you put the work in, and there's calculated risk, calculated being the operative, the key word. He was asked if he felt the Bills had dodged a bullet there with the turnovers, and he said "Yeah. I mean, that's not the way you want to live your life, if you want to win games. That's proven, in the NFL. I trust our players, though, that they're going to take great ownership of it, and get it corrected." Later, he said "it's something that's been addressed, directly, indirectly and will continue to be addressed, one way or the other, as we continue down the road here." Not quite sure what "one way or the other" could mean, LOL. On the other hand, going back up to @Bocephuz OP, on his Tuesday appearance on Kyle Brandt's Basement, Josh said that he felt he only made one really bad decision in the Dolphins game, and that was the deep throw to Brown. I don't know if I agree with that; I think on 2nd down, a decision to throw to a tightly covered Beasley with 2 other defenders in the vicinity, vs Diggs short of the chains but very wide open, really ought to be considered.

Listening to McDermott's press conference earlier today. He seemed a little distracted. Anyway, he praised the heck out of the Bengals: "Skill level is off the charts, Joe and what he's accomplished to this point as a QB in this league. He's extremely smart, accurate, the list goes on, he's an elite QB for good reason. Then the skill that they have with the receivers, the tight ends, the backs, they're as skilled as there is in the league" To listen to him talk, you'd think that their back is rushing for 4.6 ypc and ours for 3.9 ypc, instead of vice versa. You'd think that their TE had 517 yds receiving and ours had 414, instead of vice versa. I do give them the edge at WR. Their top 3 WR account for 2837 yds, our top-3 for 2688. I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I know McDermott's mantra is "humble and hungry", but just as there's a line between aggressive and reckless, there's a line between humble and recognizing your opponent, and doubting yourself. I hope he's on the "right side" that's all.

That's where I am. I don't think this is something that's gonna heal up quickly for Phillips Milano was at one point "one arming" it with a partially torn pec. He came back, but the Bills shut him down with IR (was 3 games at the time), then worked him back in with a "snap count"

Now wait a minute here. Nothing wrong with cinnamon in chili However, I draw the line at allspice and cloves. What the hell are you making there, Chili or medieval-style Mince Meat Pie? Cleveland I believe @Ethan in Cleveland

Don't Know what they're saying, Don't Care to go look. They can't have it both ways though. Either they get the "Great Coach and Team" Karma points for being touched by the tragedy that unfolded on their field and reacting to it in a human way (so pausing the game was a mutual decision). I think they deserve them, myself OR It was a Bills-driven decision while the Bengals really wanted to continue a game where it looked like we just saw a teammate die on the field with "you just want an excuse, you want no part of us, you Weenies!" in which case they can Bite my *****-Covered Shoesole. Either Or, Not Both. They're a talented team. 7th ranked offense in the league, 6th ranked defense in the league. Sounds like they think they're better than whoever is 2nd at both Guess we'll find out

Indeed it does. Let us please not neglect that Singletary contributed one of the most difficult, hard fought 7 yard runs I've seen from a Bill to gain the first down and let us close out the Dolphins game. Then there is his role in pass protection, where he was a Boss. In his presser today, the normally chary of praise McDermott said outright that he thought all of our backs played really well this week but then called out Devin in particular and said he was "really proud of him" That's where I am. I think opening Crowder's 21-day window is a win-win situation for both sides. One, if there is an injury (avert!), he may be ready to step up and contribute. Two, Crowder is an UFA this off season; assuming he wants to continue his career, it's a signal to potential suitors in FA that the Bills thought he was healing well and likely to be able to contribute.

We can't have them all active. Diggs and Davis are locks. Pick 3 more: McKenzie Shakir Beasley Brown Crowder Gonna be interesting to see how the coaches see them. My bet would be we don't activate Crowder unless we lose someone (avert) to injury or possibly if the trainers decide McKenzie can't go The thing is, speed and agility are 100% his thing, so does being 90% put him back to the realm of ordinary players?

And that's fair, but I think the counterpoint some are making is that it's harder to break a habit of making overly risky decisions with the ball when you need your A game for those 10-20% of the games, than it is to just play your A game all the time.

That's a really good question. The Bills have a lot of option routes in their offense, where the idea is that the WR and QB read the D and choose an option based upon what they see. This works GREAT when they all see things the same way, and not so great when they don't. There's no question that with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, a lot of in-game experience left the building after last season. In fact, they may need a bit more route definition on their plays going forward.

I might agree, I might not agree - can you help me understand what you mean by "awful" mistakes? I think a number of throws that were a bit off target were affected by pressure.

Great stuff @Bocephuz, Thanks! I did not catch that Bates was assigned to pull on a "fake run". If that is correct (and I'm not doubting what you see, but interpretations can vary) given the field position and the aggressive nature of the Dolphins pass rush, I can not over-emphasize what a Stone Cold STUPID call I think that would be. Spencer Brown is becoming a theme as a problem. I caught an interview with Maddy Glab and Micah Hyde on the corny M &M show they do where he kind of mocked Bates for being a detail oriented guy with a pen and notebook taking copious notes. Brown needs to step up his game. Maybe Kromer needs to buy him a notebook. Anyway someone needs to take him in hand. Someone - think it was one of the Cover1 guys - commented that the OL did a good job picking up the zero blitzes, but the 4 and 5 man pressures (where I assume there were twists and stunts) was something they were "working on." Do you have any input there from what you saw? Josh had Morris completely open on a crosser 4 yards past the LOS, with a passing lane. It was 1D Morris could easily have made it 2nd and 3 or 4. Josh had Diggs shallow and completely uncovered on the R side of the field, about 3 yds past the LOS on 2nd down but could easily have gotten 5 yds and maybe more to make it 3rd and 5 or less. So obviously, errors on both throws, but disagree that Josh should have thrown it away because he had options Post I wrote in another thread on the John Brown INT, if you want to have a look and weigh in. Post I wrote in another thread on the Beasley INT, if you want to have a look and weigh in

Silver lab. Though there is controversy whether silver labs are a thing, or crossbred Weimaraners. I'm tickled by the little Josh interactions with the dog during the show. You see little hints of the scope of the Josh personality. The dog brings him a toy, expecting to be indulged and play, the dog gets on the furniture, clearly easy-going loving 'dog parent'. Then "You quit your whining back there!" said in a No Nonsense, I mean Business voice and the dog is like 'whoops, OK Boss!" Just seems like a microcosm of some of the Jordan Palmer stories and his summation "He's a Sweetheart, but I wouldn't want to Mess with him!"

Leslie Frazier would like to know. Did he say when on the weekend the interview was going to be? If he interviews Sunday after the game, in theory not too much impact. ??

I could be unique, but I feel like this thread is very Bad Juju.

I mean, I think every fan and every QB thinks that to some degree, right? We feel that as long as we have Josh Allen we've got a chance, right? Burrows will learn that his team has a window. It starts when he gets his 2nd contract. Boyd and Higgins are FA after this season, as is DJ Reader and Jonah Williams their LT. Hendrickson and Mixon FA in 2025. It's not that the window slams shut, but it gets smaller and harder to squirm through and depends a lot on being able to pluck talent from the later part of the draft and from lower-tier FA. He shouldn't feel like an underdog. He's the QB of the defending AFC champions, and he probably feels like he came one canceled game away from hosting this game.

Let's take this piece by piece. "We signed 2 WR off the street that no one else wanted...." True. We did this because we lost 2 WR to injury and had our backup plan poached on waivers, and late in the season, they had disproportionate value in an offense they already knew (ie, dude off the street who already knows our offense and has a comfort level with Josh >> possibly more talented dude off another team's PS. "and gave them a good amount of snaps" - True. Beasley got 31 snaps (42%), Brown got 21 snaps (28%). Shakir's snap count also increased to 30 (41%). In part this was because we had a starting WR out for the game due to injury. He's one of the premier Whipping Boys on TBD, but he has been getting ~57% of the snaps all season, so that had to be filled somehow. Brown and Beasley have been running around 12% of the snaps, so 30% more for Bease, 14% more for Brown, 12% more for Shakir = 56% of the snaps. That's what happens when injuries bite, Next Man Up. "Teams have figured out if you bracket Diggs the other weapons aren't consistently stepping up". Some truth. In the first half, no other receiver had more than 3 targets. Diggs had 7 receptions on 8 targets for 114 yds. Acting upon your premise, the Fins took him away in the 2nd half and he had 0 receptions on 1 target. Then the rest of the Bills receivers had 9 receptions on 16 targets for 132 yds,. The Bills still got some production in the run game (total 26 for 107 yds; 13 for 64 in the 1st half, 13 for 43 in the 2nd half. It's not as though our offense was completely shut down; 173 yds of offense in the 2nd half with Diggs being 'taken away' vs 275 yds WITH 2 interceptions in the first half. We got 10 first downs, we converted 4 of 8 3rd downs which is excellent, we scored 14 of our 34 points. I believe the Bills were being more conservative in the 2nd half after the Josh Allen strip sack gave the Fins a defensive strip-6 (with good reason!), but it's not as though our offense was shut down. "The offense is mostly just Josh Allen making magic happen" Again, some truth, but begs the question "is that because it's a system incapable of operating in any other way, or is it because Josh Allen is choosing to try to force magic to happen a little too much, instead of operating within the system?" Simms thinks so, others may think differently.

Keep in mind it was a "walkthrough" and we saw a scary change last week

Tell me more about this "wide margin"

Chris Simms is an Allen Homer and his "take" all season has been that the Bills offense is too dependent on Josh Allen to create plays in the passing game and to generate running offense. It follows he must believe that the Bills aren't running a capable offensive system that would support Josh playing within it. (they waffle a bit, but Erik Turner of Cover1 has expressed that same viewpoint at times) I find it interesting to compare and contrast his view with that of Kurt Warner, whose OBL interview a few weeks ago I summarized in a different post up thread (recommend giving it a listen) who explicitly states that he believes the Bills have a "good system with a lot of good solid concepts" (~7:45 in), and who basically seems to believe that Josh is feeling the need to play outside the system and create offense, when he could let the defense dictate where he goes with the ball and let the offense work for him. I will say that in general, when Josh has gone to the other weapons on the system, like Knox, McKenzie, Morris, Gilliam, Cook, Singletary - they have made those plays for him. Gilliam, Knox, Singletary, and Morris are all rocking catch % >70% and McKenzie and Cook are right around 65%. Shakir is still a "work in progress", but hopefully he's turning the corner with 3 receptions on 5 targets (though, c'mon man! on that drop) Anyway, so, there are different viewpoints on the Bills offense out there from pundits. I tend to believe Kurt Warner has forgotten more Ball than Chris Simms and Erik Turner will ever know, so I'd go with his assessment (also, because when I look at film where Josh has thrown picks, I usually see alternatives) but, YMMV. Oh, one other thing - the Bills run game has improved, independent of Josh Allen, the last 8 games. 1st 8 weeks: 124 rush ypg, Allen 49 rush ypg: 75 rush ypg other than Josh most recent 8 weeks: 146 rush ypg, Allen 38 rush YPG: 108 rush YPG other than Josh. It's not up to "league average" but, league average includes significant rush yard contributions from about 6 QB, enough to influence the average I think.

On the fumble machine thing, I put up data on this partly through the season where I characterized each fumble as QB/C exchange, strip sack, or fumble while running. At that time, the majority of Josh's fumbles were on QB-C exchange or strip sacks. So unless you have data that differs for the last 3-4 games, your characterization of Josh as a "fumble machine" when he runs has been wrong to date. That said, I don't like the way Josh holds the ball when he runs, either. TL;DR for what follows: the problem with an immensely physically talented QB like Josh who can actually make all these plays, is that you can't just get in his grill and yell "stop doing this, always do that instead" without limiting or removing his special play ability. Instead, it's about refining and molding his decision making, and that's much harder and takes more time. Kurt Warner did an interesting interview with Brown and Tasker where he talked about how as a QB, he had no option but to learn to read the D and make correct, fast decisions because he simply couldn't make the special, Unicorn plays Josh makes. He points out that as a HOF QB, he threw a lot of turnovers and that if you're an aggressive QB who pushes the ball down the field, he believes you will make more good plays than bad so turnovers don't bother him so much. That said, he talks about how he thinks it's hard to for a QB to live in a place where he has to make 15-20 special plays per game and that to be successful against the best defenses in the playoffs, a successful playoff QB has to be able to see and take the layups and maybe make 4-5 special plays per game. He says he believes the offense in Buffalo is a good solid system (that would support Josh playing "in system" more). He talks about how he'd like to see Josh play more in system in the red zone and not feel that he needs to run around and create so much. He acknowledges that he was NOT one of the guys who can do all the special stuff that Josh can do, so he doesn't fully understand that mindset, but he says that one reason Mahomes and Allen are so special is that they CAN do both things well (play in system as well as create outside the system) and acknowledges that it must be a hard thing to balance out when you're used to making so many big plays. I know some here don't like Kurt Warner's QB Confidential pieces on Josh but I think it's a fascinating listen. My impression is that Daboll had no fear of lighting into Josh and setting him straight on anything. They had a relationship built from the ground up, when Josh was coming into the league and depending upon his coaches to help him develop. Daboll had the carrots, and Daboll had the sticks. Now Josh is an established star, and he basically spoke up for Dorsey and got him the job so Dorsey is, to some extent, dependent upon Josh's good will. We can kind of see that Dorsey is "low man on the (coaching) totum pole in that McDermott stuck him with John Butler, the DB coach, as his "Passing Game Coordinator" and Joe Brady as his QB coach then Mike Shula as "Senior Offensive Assistant". Joe Brady is a great X's and O's guy, but outside of the backup QB Josh no longer has a real QB coach on the sideline with him who can coach QB vision or technique if something is getting away from him. And while Daboll was unquestionably "running the show" by his 3rd year, I think Dorsey is running "Offense by Committee" and feeling his way. Bottom line, I think the offense lacks a "single voice" and possibly lacks someone who feels like they have the clout to set Josh straight. And I hope that's a problem they solve in the off-season because we have Russ Wilson as the shining example of what happens when an undoubted QB talent grows beyond being coachable. I do think that Dorsey is overall feeling his way successfully. Josh has said things in interviews about realizing that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field and see things the same way or it doesn't work, and that it took some doing but they're getting to a good place now (this was weeks ago, around the Thurs. nite games).

Part of it is our OL. The Bills O kind of lives in 11 personnel - not to the same extent the D lives in nickel, but it's something like 72% (anyone got stats, especially individual game stats, please Bring 'Em). This season, Singletary and Knox have been kept in to block - a lot- while 2 or 3 of the WR run deep or deep intermediate routes. McKenzie is often an immediate checkdown option in the flat, sometimes he runs a deep crosser where he's a threat because of his speed. Knox (more often) and Singletary (less often) chip then release onto a route, but it's of necessity a shallow route. That workflow limits the route trees those latter 2 can run. IMHO the #1 thing the Bills could do in the off season is invest significant resources in improving the OL. If we could actually block 4 DL or 4 DL and a LB with hat-on-hat, and use Knox in routes which he showed last season he has the skill set to run, that would help a great deal. Morris, IMHO, is also underutilized as a receiver where I've been impressed at times when I've seen him. That release on the route where he scored the TD was Sick.

I have a healthy "ignore" file now. Neat, sweet, can't be beat. Preserves me from the temptation to respond to a troll (or a poster who is not a troll but psychologically unable to acknowledge a valid counterpoint). Greatly improves the board experience, 4 of 4 stars, highly recommend.

Being able to run a screen well would be a very helpful alternative against the cover0 blitz It would also open a lot of things up for us. I'm not sure why the Bills are so inept at them - on an early thread it was suggested that one reason they don't work well is because of how defenses play the run threat Josh presents.

That's the "party line", but I'm not sure it's correct. Part of that is because of Allen's known tendencies, teams know they can choke down on the guys who are past the sticks and pay a cursory nod to the shallow guys. For example, on the play where Josh threw to Beasley who was closely covered by 1 defender and had 2 others in the vicinity - on the opposite side of the field, Dawson Knox ran a route that effectively picked the defender off Diggs and left him totally open for a while before the defender who had him closed the gap. Romo even commented during the broadcast that Allen has Diggs wide open on the opposite side of the field. On the deep INT to Brown, I believe he was the only receiver on the field as the Bills put a heavy set on the field against what Miami showed as a cover 0 blitz. But then when they dropped, the Bills two TE and Gilliam broke out into routes. There were crossers at two levels by Morris and Knox, who was drawing the attention and leaving Morris wide open with a passing lane to him, as well as Gilliam running up the sideline and carrying 2 defenders with him. People here are "oh, Dorsey should give Allen checkdowns" "Dorsey should scheme guys open", usually when Allen throws a pick, there is an alternative open, Allen just doesn't choose to take it.