Beck Water

I do not want to see even a healthy Klein attempting to chase down and tackle Fields. Milano please.

Someone posted under the pics that they're from 2016

LOL no problem. I think Cover1 did a post-game analysis on Youtube. Might have been a good one in TBN; Joe B's postgame mostly talks about how great Milano was but not much about the how and why of what the Bills did. I'll keep looking myself, because I seem to recall that Frazier did throw some wrinkles into his normal 4-2-5 The thing that's stood out to me when I've heard opponents talking about Justin Fields is, they all talk about how fast he is, including guys who have played Lamar Jackson regularly.

So you might be interested in reading up on some of the stuff written about how the Bills defended the Ravens earlier this season. The thing about putting AJ Klein on the field is you're typically taking a faster guy off of it. In 2020, SF was Milano's first game back from IR and they had him on a snap count I think. So no alternative. Typically Milano is one of our best defensive players (esp. with Von Miller hurt) and I don't think it would serve the Bills well to take him off the field. Interesting question with Justin Fields: where does he usually get his yards? My impression is he gets to the edge and heads up field, not much up the middle. I think Montgomery runs between the tackles, though, so it's not as though you can abandon covering the middle of the field.

Didn't want to start a new thread for this. Nice film piece from Cover1 breaking down Dawson Knox game against the Dolphins.

Diggs overall on the season to date, 78% of the snaps. That's lower than last year or 2020, when he was on the field 89%. Varies game by game from 64% to 95%. Varies. Justin Jefferson on the field, 96% of the snaps. Career high, previously 82%, 89% Tyreek Hill 76% of the snaps A. St Brown 78% Davante Adams 96%, prev with GB 85% Michael Pittman 94%, prev 78%, 88% It varies and obviously some of the top guys are on the field more, but some about the same amount.

Question: how do you tell it's him taking himself off the field, and not a signal from sideline or a word from another player as substitutions are made? Diggs was the field almost every play. 86% of the snaps vs. the Dolphins. He was not on the field for a whole 11 snaps out of 78 snaps. I don't think those 11 snaps were "numerous times after receptions". I think for the most part, they're dictated by the play and the personnel package it requires - for example a heavier set with 1 RB 2 TE or 2 RB 1 TE, where we only have 2 WR on the field (even then, the 2 WR may include Diggs more often than not). But sometimes they want Davis and a slot or gadget guy, or (when he was active) Davis and Shakir. I would love to have a source for the personnel sets the Bills use but I'm too cheap to pay for SIS or the like.

Well played, Sir! Well played!

Chris Simms unbuttoned on the Mia at Buffalo game Still thinks the Bills "aren't dominant on defense" and just depend on Josh Allen Magic to win. Agree? Disagree? I don't get it. That ain't fearlessness in them pics that's foolishness. Now put a goal line and an endzone, then it's fearlessness

That's one of those where I wish I could see one of those little moving diagrams. I think Allen had to make his decision and throw before it was clear Diggs was gonna shed his defender like that

Which is why it would not make a lot of sense to move Brown to guard as some are suggesting (maybe that's in another thread)

If you wanna play "shoulda coulda woulda" how about Creed Humphrey going 2 picks after Boogie Basham?

I posted on this in the game week thread. Either they weren't happy at all with how Bryant played in his limited snaps against the Fish (10 I think) OR They're very confident Jordan Phillips can go OR They're very un-confident in the progress of Bates ankle and Morse head

I'm not sure I agree with giving him a pass on the Strip sack. It's like, yeah, it's extending the clock on the play a long time, but that's Allen's game. Hopefully he continues to improve. I hope he won't need surgery and will be able to put in a full off season of strength training at an NFL level this year.

Apologies if I missed this up-thread: I did not see Brandin Bryant being the one cut to make room for Boettger. Either the Bills are very confident in Oliver having come out of the game OK and Jordan Phillips being ready to go... ....or they were not happy with how Bryant played in his 10 snaps against the Dolphins ...or they are not confident at all about Bates ankle and Morse's head I'm worried about that last possibility.

I give no ***** if Sammy is sad. He's laughing all the way to the VIP section of the club with his near-$70M career earnings. Last time I saw him on the field with Green Bay, he looked like a freakin' tight end. Fat Kelvin, move over!

I didn't see the Jags particularly as a "let down game". I could be misremembering, but I didn't feel we'd gone over the top, all out against the Dolphins the previous week - not that we didn't play hard and play well, but we were coming off a bye week and it seemed like a regular, solid win.

And Baldy on our defense. This was a preview of the Mia game so it features the Jets

DANG! Will you look at that release off the line by Quintin Morris. I kind of want to see more of that guy! Here's a "Baldy Breakdown of the entire GWD. Excellent play, but a point to ponder: the DPI against McKenzie was totally legit IMO and to Baldy (which likely means more). But, there was an equally legit DPI in the EZ against the Giants that was NOT called and clearly lost the game for them. It's one of these "was it there in time/wasn't it?" plays - Diggs eventually gets open against Xavian Howard on the R side of the field. But, I think Josh has to throw it before it develops enough to be sure. Anyway, we got the DPI and it worked, so....

We were on our heels against the run to my eye, because we'd made up our mind to limit the pass I think one might consider that the Bills D made adjustments, and the Fish thought they could have more success passing against those adjustments. And, they kind of did, right? to the tune of 13 unanswered points in the 3Q But the difference in run and pass wasn't as extreme as you might think. First half, Fish were 126 yds on 14 rush attempts but 8 of 16 on pass attempts for 91 net yards passing When you take out Mostert's 67 yd attempt, 59 yds. Second half, 63 yds on 11 rush attempts, even more effective (except we didn't let them break a big run), but 9 of 14 for 126 yds net yards passing. It's not like they "abandoned" the run. They had like 47% run in the first half, and 44% in the 2nd half.

You're weird LOL

Davis had a very good game against Miami. 6 targets, 4 receptions, 56 yds. Josh did not try to force the ball in to him or throw it away in his direction because he remained too well covered. Josh threw it to someone else who was not so well covered, and the passing game worked better. Davis has been running more than just "go" routes all season. His best route is probably the The problem has been that he either hasn't hung on to the ball, or that he's well covered with a high probability of a PD, or an INT if the throw is a bit off. The way to get the offense to take off, is to target whoever is open.

With all respect, I think that's a mistaken hope. Diggs was "fed" the ball against Detroit. He wound up with 8 catches on 15 targets or 53% catch Diggs needs to get the ball when he's open. If Josh has time, Diggs will usually work his way open. He's very good. But especially when the OL isn't holding up against the pass rush du jour, we need to do more of what we did vs. Miami: spread the ball around to other targets. Take the quick shots. Then when the defense is like "oh, we're being nibbled to death, we need to stop it", throw to Diggs. Nate Geary: And Diggs needs to stop getting visibly pissy on the field and throwing his helmet (IMO) when someone else is targeted and he thinks it should be him. He doesn't know the timing, he doesn't know what Josh is seeing, he's putting a lot of pressure on his QB. Contrary to what people say, this is far from saying "I was open, throw to me, I'll make you right" on the sideline or "I Got You" in the huddle. The above didn't stop Diggs from getting his targets BTW, he got just as many.

The thing is (and here is where I believe analytics really need to be localized), the Bills have shown a pattern of "let down games" 2020: big win over the Seahawks -> 17 unanswered 3Q points to Cardinals, L; hard fought playoff win over Ravens -> bad AFCCG loss to Chiefs 2021: big win over the Chiefs -> close loss to the Titans; big win over the Saints -> close loss to the Patriots 2022: big hard-fought win over the Jets, then the Dolphins -> ? what will happen in super-cold away game vs. the Bears? I think there are probably some reasonable rationales. For example, the team's key players may "put it all out there" in a win and come out of the game hampered with dings and dents or injured, making it harder for the team to play its best the following week. How do you know that was specifically the night de-ice capability, and not an ATC ground delay?

Eh. While I hesitate to respond to someone who is "feeding the filthybeast" (aka Miami/NE fan troll), Mac Jones did have a solid year last year, including a 9 game stretch with 8 wins and 1 OT loss and wins over good teams like the Titans (who beat us, we may recall). I think a lot of the difference is that last year, he had an OC in Josh McDaniels, who had a solid offensive system and who knew how to shape it to his QB's strengths and teach his QB to function in it. This year, he's got former Patriots DC and disastrous Lions HC Matt Patricia, and former Patriots ST coach and failed Giants HC Joe Judge. I see no evidence that either of them know much about how to craft an offense to a team's strengths or develop a QB. Basically, his support system was surgically excised and replaced with a pair of crutches.