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Everything posted by Beck Water
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So this is kinda like the Dolphins version of Cover1 Network? Eh, sometimes those guys know something
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The Commanders released RB J.D. McKissic.
Beck Water replied to Bag of Milk's topic in The Stadium Wall
Doubtful. They were very thin on punt returners with Crowder and Hyde on IR, and Shakir wasn't 'all that' -
Tre' White coined it
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Source on Twitter? 'cuz I was just searching Rapaport and Schefter and etc and none of them have it. With a "big cheese" like Rosenhaus as his agent you think they'd know
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Whoaoa, Isn't that leaving it a bit late? Matsko has an OL coaching pedigree reaching back to the St Louis Rams in the days of the "Greatest Show on Turf" and their SB win (1999-2005)/strong offense - 4 out of 6 years #1 or #2 offense. Definitely a WCO based on the timing of the QB footwork and the routes matching up, correct reads and accurate throws, although Martz did demand extended protection of the OL for a vertical passing game. Then after a bit of moving around, he stuck with Rivera and the Panthers from 2011-2019, basically Newton's entire tenure as starter (during which they had 4 playoff appearances and a Superbowl loss, and I never thought Newton had a good OL). Then he moved to Washington with Rivera. Wonder what happened there? Did he finally tell them they were asking him to make chicken ***** into fried chicken on the OL?
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Right. Well, I guess technically OBJ wasn't one of his weapons in Green Bay, but... If Rodgers doesn't like Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin, the Bills could take them off their hands.
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If you're not confused and you know how it works, then why are you confusing the data teams pay for, and the PFF grading system? If you read carefully what I wrote, nothing I said refutes the idea that former players and coaches do work at PFF - just the contention that they're intimately involved in the play by play, game by game analysis that produces the PFF player grades. Listing names does not argue that point. Nor does saying the initial analysis is QC'd. How carefully is each play QC'd and by whom? I'm outta here. Your choice of screen name is too ironic for me.
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Last season, the R side of our OL could be summed up as: Not Good Enough (actually, so could our L side but) So basically, your thinking is that Beane is just moving air molecules around when he talks about protecting Allen, and there will be no real effort to improve upon the weaker side of the line?
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Nyhiem Hines Restructures - Takes a pay cut to stay in Buffalo.
Beck Water replied to Draconator's topic in The Stadium Wall
Can you identify what you're keying on for us? He's so indistinguishable that...wait for it...some put him in an ignore file and never respond to him -
Dude, I think you are mixed up about a bunch of things. PFF provides all kind of data. Some of it is relatively raw data - what formations a team uses in different down and distance situations, what formation was used against it, success rate. Catch % of different WR on different routes. Coverage tendencies on ST given game situation and distance. They are very good at that data. It is indeed impressive, and it's widely used by teams. Then there are the player grades. Especially for OL and DL, the PFF graders are NOT primarily comprised of "former NFL players, coaches and scouts". They are comprised of low-level grunts, many of whom have never watched football and are being introduced to it for the first time (being a UK based company). They get some training on what to score and are then turned lose to do it. Their scoring is reviewed by people who know more, but it's far too much weekly data for the higher level experts to review in depth So, the PFF player grades are variable in how useful they are. They can see, for example, that two receivers have run routes and end up very close to each other, which probably wasn't what the play desired - but which of them ran the correct route? They can see that coverage broke down - but who missed the assignment? They don't know. It gets even worse with OL and DL play because they're guessing what the blocking assignments were on OL and what the gap assignments were on DL. They may be educated guesses, but they're just guesses. If you think they've got a former OLman or a former OL coach or a former DLman or a former DL coach breaking down every play based on expert knowledge of that specific team's schemes and tendencies, guess again. Then you have situations where Milano graded very poorly in a game against KC - but he clearly excelled at what the Bills had asked him to do, which was spy on Mahomes and attack once he was flushed to one side. Anyway, the player grades are primarily a tool designed for fantasy football and marketed to the general public. I would be astounded if teams based their evaluations of their own OLmen, or OLmen they sign, on PFF grades, and nothing you've quoted above provides any evidence that the ydo.
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Why, on "love to see Mitch"? Canonically, we want a backup who can come into a game or start a couple games and give us a 50/50 chance to win. Overall, that's what we had with Keenum. Statistically, that's what we'd have with Mitch, but frankly, he played like a Lost Boy for Pittsburgh last season. Did not look like a guy who can lead a team at all, whereas I had a sense that the team would have followed Keenum, they knew he couldn't make the throws that Allen could but they trusted his head for the game.
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That's pretty faulty logic. The Cowboys have McGovern ( a 3rd round pick) penciled in as a backup behind Zach Martin, their highly paid right guard and Tyler Smith, last year's 1st round pick. Like any team that's paying their QB 12% of their cap and then a couple other guys well, the Cowboys operate on a "Stars and JAGs" model. "Good backup we can't afford" behind a very promising 1st round pick and a top guard they're paying as such, is not the same as "not a good player". There's also the relativity factor. DaQuan Jones on the Redskins was a backup, behind Daron Payne on the depth chart. He was a very good player for us last season. Is he a star, No. Is he potentially a good player, better than "very average", Yes. He could, actually. I won't type the names, but we have had LG who have been worse than Saffold in the last 5 years. That is depressing. See above. It is certainly possible to be worse than Saffold. But I will be very disappointed if signing a backup G/C from the Cowboys is the extent of our OL investment, just as signing Saffold was pretty much the extent of our OL investment last season. Not Enough.
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Could be. Though Dawkins struggled in 2020 after he caught Covid, until he was playing next to Boettger then Bates. And I thought Brown played better next to Williams in 2020 than he did last year next to Bates.
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To be fair, the people who think PFF OL grades are crap and the people using them to support their opinions are not necessarily the same. In fact, I think they're pretty much a disjoint set. I thought Bates played better on the L side in 2021 than he did on the R side in 2022.
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Dolphins Pick Up Tua's 5th Year Option
Beck Water replied to Mike in Horseheads's topic in The Stadium Wall
I guess they had to make some kind of gesture what with paying Mike White 2 yrs/$8M -
My guess would be that an extension for DaQuan Jones might be in the work. He was a Force last year. He is turned 31, but interior DLmen can be effective longer. IF we're losing Poyer, I also wouldn't rule out a small extension for Hyde though that's dangerous business with him coming off the neck surgery. Oh, wow - just saw that Matakevitch is said to have signed a 1 year, $2.5M extension - yowza.
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Just me, but I wouldn't worry about the draft picks just now. I don't think Beane is. We only need top-51, which is gonna be about $5M. Beane will keep restructuring and tweaking contracts after FA. He'll be using that $9M $15M to sign FA now. Oh, good catch - I didn't see that Spotrac hadn't put in the Milano extension. Agree, McGovern is said to be $4M this season, and I'm betting Matekavich and Lewis are minimal deals, so close to a wash. That's exciting, it means we still have close to that $15M for FA.
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Most of the specific reason is that the Bills were $19M over the cap and he needs some $$ to sign some guys (not necessarily big splashes, just guys) and to sign draft picks, with all the FA the Bills have. Good questions. Spotrac already has Martin's contract accounted for and shows us $15M under. No details on McGovern yet, that's reported as $4M against the 2023 cap, so leaves $11M. I would assume Matakevitch and Lewis are pretty low budget moves, vet minimum type. Maybe leaves about $9M Edit: I missed that Spotrac didn't have the Milano restructure, so more like $14-15M
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Diggs unfollows Buffalo, follows Cowgirls 🤷♂️
Beck Water replied to DaggersEOD's topic in The Stadium Wall
Interesting! Spotrac shows that as an option bonus of 5 - $3.2M per year - so I assumed that had already been exercised. But, if it's due coming up - yeah, I see your calculations. He could be traded for a $21.6M dead cap, which is indeed only $1.3M more than his current year cap hit. Still, in a tight cap year, for the Bills to trade one of their two most talented offensive players, take any cap hit at all, and lose his services - the payoff would have to be pretty damned big. I did not know that one couldn't designate a trade post June 1, though that makes sense now that I think about it. Thanks! -
Diggs unfollows Buffalo, follows Cowgirls 🤷♂️
Beck Water replied to DaggersEOD's topic in The Stadium Wall
I know. My point was, Mango isn't the only one who rolls eyes at his trolling. -
Diggs unfollows Buffalo, follows Cowgirls 🤷♂️
Beck Water replied to DaggersEOD's topic in The Stadium Wall
LOL Bease called him out -
Diggs unfollows Buffalo, follows Cowgirls 🤷♂️
Beck Water replied to DaggersEOD's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think "Some body" is mis-understanding what they read on OverTheCap, which is a bit confusing. https://overthecap.com/player/stefon-diggs/3994 In a trade designated "post June 1", it's true that Diggs would cost $11.8M against the cap this season, as his guaranteed salary would go to the trade partner. But Diggs has a $7.5M prorated bonus due in '24, '25, and '26, then $3.2M due in '27. That sums to $25.7M dead cap hit in 2024 for the Bills if they trade him, and designate the trade their single "post-June 1" move. $11.8M + $25.7M = $37.5M, which agrees with the dead cap hit reported for a pre-June 1 trade. I think you know this, but also to be understood is that in a post-June 1 scenario, Diggs counts against the Bills cap at his current $20.3M cap number until after June 1. -
Bills have shown interest in Lavonte David.
Beck Water replied to MAJBobby's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don't think this guy is particularly credible, but here are the remaining FA LB as of like 30 minutes ago. Rumors have Okereke going to the Jets. Edit: and now Singleton said to be re-upping in Denver Isn't the DraftDiamonds guy Damond Talbot? Yeah, googled - he's the "owner". I think Ryan Talbot is related to him - not brothers but cousins or something. So it's not necessarily independent confirmation, but like @boyst says, Damond is good at building relationships with the small school guys and maintaining them, and David (hard to believe it now) was a small-school guy. -
Awwwww man! C'mon Pack hijack them airplanes for more ransom!
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Mike White going to Dolphins to backup Tua
Beck Water replied to Gunsgoodtime's topic in The Stadium Wall
2 year, $16M is pretty strong money for a backup OK, well, there is that "up to" weasel-word in there so I guess we'll see.