Beck Water

This is exactly right. I normally think Brandon Beane is a pretty straight shooter, but I winced when he said that thing about not wanting to suck enough to draft Chase. It reeked of excuse-making to me, exactly for the reasons you said - there were quality WR available where we drafted or for a modest draft move trade.

People took it that way, but I think it means the Bills weren't happy with the production of Tanner Gentry or the potential of the guys they had on the PS at the time. The Bills were straight up desperate for bodies at WR after week 9 when Kumerow went on IR. We only had 4 healthy WR (Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Shakir) and we were elevating and activating Tanner Gentry for 2 games until we signed John Brown. It's pretty notable that even after we signed Brown, McKenzie got 52% of the snaps to Brown's 16%, 64% to Brown's 5%, 56% to Beasley's 14%, 36% to Beasley's 9%, 56% to Brown's 12%. Beasley and Brown didn't get more snaps until McKenzie was out with a hammy for the MIA WC game and probably still not 100% for the Bengals. NOW, overall, did the Bills think they needed to move on from McKenzie? Clearly they did, or they wouldn't have gone out and paid Harty $3.745M then cut McKenzie and signed Sherfield, who had roughly the same yards last season as McKenzie did. But it's also pretty clear that they didn't sign Brown and Beasley because they thought they were better than McKenzie last season; they signed them because they were desperate for a fifth body at WR who had the potential to play better than Gentry, a PS guy, or a guy off the street with no knowledge of our offense.

C'mon Man. KC has a 1A+ receiver. His name is Travis Kelce, and he was 3rd in the league for receptions, 8th for yards, and had the highest catch % of receivers with the top 10 yards. You don't get to discount him just because he's a TE and not a WR. So yes, KC had a 1B or at least a #2 WR with Juju S-S. I don't know if generically a team needs to have a 1B or even a strong #2 at WR, but when they have as little run game as the Bills have, they'd better have a bit more at WR than the Bills had last season, or 1A is gonna get locked in a vault. Where, BTW, Kelce apparently can not be placed because of his size and physicality.

TBH, the dream I have regards getting a WR high in the draft for the change....so I kind of hope we don't pay OBJ what he wants, because I think it's either-or-not-both. And if we want to stay competitive, we really do need to "draft and develop".

I can always be mistaken, but I think fans need to let go of their OBJ dreams. Beane isn't gonna pay him what he wants And frankly, I think there are only so many recovering ACLs a team should be betting on I hope you're right about the rookie in round 1-3. Round 1 or 2 preferred, for me.

He's got enough years and games they may have him on a vet salary benefit contract, where they pay him vet minimum ($1.08M) and a small signing bonus, but he only counts as a 2nd year player against the cap ($940k)

Didn't go to the combine (undrafted) 4.45 at his pro day At least he's not a Smurf - 6 ft tall and 203 lbs, 32" arms. From Vanderbilt in 2017 He may be penciled in as the #5 or #6 WR, but I'm not sure he's just Kumerow's replacement as a primarily ST guy. He played 58% of Miami's snaps on offense (611 out of 1009 plays per PFR, apparently 422 per PFF? Unclear on discrepency.). Apparently played about half his snaps from the slot and half outside. 417 receiving yards on 30 receptions last season, 3rd on the team. For comparison, McKenzie had 423 yds on 42 receptions. I'm thinking he's kind of a back-up plan to Harty and Shakir, in case Harty goes down injured and Shakir doesn't take that desired step as a slot, but also he is someone who is big enough to play other roles than returner on ST. Although that didn't go well for the Dolphins in our first meeting....he's the "Butt Punt" blocker.

There's a weekend lag in the Bills announcements and in the NFL office announcements, absolutely But most of these rapid announcements come from the players' agents to the "NFL insiders". Agents, Rapoport, and Schefter work Sundays. f

Doesn't necessarily mean too much, but in his post-season presser Beane said something about we thought Lawson played well at the end of the year and we'll have to see what happens in FA. About Phillips, he said "he needs to have surgery and he's going to have a long road back" or words to that effect. My translation of Beane-speak is that is if Shaq doesn't have a huge market, Beane will offer him a vet minimum deal, maybe even a vet salary benefit deal, but that he will wait and see how Phillips recovery progresses from surgery before offering him.

You aren't going to free up $9.7M of cap by cutting Tre' White this off season. In fact it would cost you $6.7M additional cap this off-season, or half of the free cap we currently have.

Oh good question! Well played, Sir! Ouch.

Thank you for putting a good bit of thought into this. I understand what you're thinking about - how many of the Bills currently signed players are really solid to make the 53 man roster? And where do they need to add? I think you did a pretty good job of identifying that. One thing to keep in mind is that the Bills aren't looking to fill a 53 man roster at present. They're looking to fill a 90 man roster to go into training camp. So another way to look at it is that the Bills currently have 61 players under contract by my count (look at Spotrac and add up the ones that are lined out because their salaries are lower than the top 51.) A couple of those were actually on the roster last year (Quintin Morris is an example. So the Bills are actually looking to add 29 players between now and training camp. In addition to 6 draft picks, they will likely add 6-10 undrafted rookies, and 13 or so FA. And at the bottom of the roster, those guys will battle it out and a couple will make the 53, then another handful will make the practice squad. For some of the needs you identify (such as a DE to stopgap Miller), the Bills may actually like someone they've already got signed such as Kendal Vickers, who played a couple games for the Raiders. Same thing on OL. I know I will be hella disappointed if you're correct and our "improvements" to OL consist of Connor McGovern, a 31 yr old "fringe" OT like Brandon Shell (is that who you mean?) and a Day 3 C/G prospect. But that's not on you for possibly making an educated guess about what the Bills will do, it's on the Bills for undervaluing the OL. Signing Fournette or Elliot would make no sense (IMHO) because if we don't have a solid run blocking OL they won't help us. BTW currently Matt Barkely is on the roster giving us 3 QB.

Good lord! Is "Gas Mask Guy" Tunsil that good?

Good post. Right now Spotrac shows us at $13.6, with the dead cap from Saffold and Phillips taken out of the top 51 and everyone but Dane Jackson included. Dane's contract must be less than $2.7, let's call it $1.6 for the sake of argument - that gives us $12. You mighta mis-heard Beane. The rookie top-51 cap is $5M, not $3 - Spotrac has it if you scroll down the Bills page, I learned that after I calculated it myself 😲 It's early days to worry about PS - we have to worry about that at the same time as we have to worry about the 53 man roster, not top-51, but I thought Beane said last year they needed $5M. Some crunching, if we have 6 vets earning the max and 10 players earning rookie PS scale, that'd be $4.2M. I would expect Beane to extend a player or two to lower their current cap hit to cover that, and generate a bit of reserve. Bottom line, we have some money left to sign FA or make a trade - at least $7-8M. so if Beane doesn't do it - it's because he doesn't want to do it.

This last part is absolutely true. "Nobody Cares, Work Harder" as Harbaugh would say. Ya gotta play the hand you're dealt, fly the weather you find, etc etc. But if you agree that Allen was NOT in a poor situation offensively starting out in B'lo relative to Mahomes starting out in KC, and that KC's defense "has also sucked most of the time Mahomes has been there", I have a beach cottage in Batavia NY for sale, Wanna buy? Neither are true.

Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. Who a player is, especially on OL, is a moving target. Because a player has been better, doesn't necessarily mean that he will be better. Father time is undefeated and injuries do take a toll. Last year, we brought in an aged vet with an injury history to give us quality LG play for a year. It didn't work out. Seumalo is an aging vet (not as aged as Saffold, but will be close at the end of his contract) with a distinguished career and a significant injury history. McGovern is a young player with development ahead of him. The Bills chose to go with a younger player, whom they feel is a better fit on their line. I had high hopes for Saffold, and it didn't work out. We'll see how this works, but I can't look at it in the abstract and say "Seumalo has been a great guard on a great OL therefore he automatically will be better than a guy who filled in capably for the Cowboys." I will be very disappointed if the Bills don't still add a couple of players - an OT and if they don't draft OL fairly high.

Let's wait and see how the details unfold. In theory, McGovern's contract is similar at 3 yrs/ $22M. But his cap hit this season is $4k, and he's guaranteed $8k. Those are always the details that matter - what is this year's cap hit, what is actually guaranteed. Also, Seumalo is 29. McGovern is 25. If the Bills feel Kromer can develop McGovern and he can lock down LG long term, it would explain in part why they chose him. The $400k savings per year are chicken feed, but let's see the details of Seamulo's contract. All $8k/yr contracts are not equal.

I think there's a lot of FA left before comp formulas come into play. Thanks for the link and the education though!

Oh, wow that is total Weak Sauce. You'll make a general statement, blah blah' someone will refute it with specific points and examples - "Too Long to Respond to All of This" blah blah. I always use points not yards for defensive ranking because....wait for it...points are what win games. That isn't an arguable, so to speak, point. Especially when a team is ahead, a D can give up all kinds of yards, and it means nothing. But make an agenda out of it - then you get to explain how you looking at yards and IGNORING points when you said KC's D has "sucked the whole time Mahomes has been here" isn't a Big Honkin' Agenda on your part. You're a piece of work, you know that? I started out saying, quote: "I don't think people are arguing that Mahomes isn't the top QB in the league right now. I think he cemented that by changing a lot of his offensive cast (still has Kelce though) and still winning a Championship." And you respond "stop trying to discredit PM". I'm clearly not trying to discredit Mahomes, I'm pointing out that your statement "it’s weird that people act like Allen was in soem (sic) terrible situation and mahomes had so many advantages" is Bunk, Period. Allen WAS placed in a terrible situation relative to Mahomes, who took over the keys of a top-5 offense with experienced coaching, top players, and a top backup. The reason you aren't going to respond to all of this is not because it's "too long", but because you can't, not rationally. There's no question that a lot of young QBs are hurt by constant churn on the coaching staff and especially at OC. But the point is, Daboll did not start off as "COTY" in 2018. He had a learning curve at OC, a learning curve as a QB mentor, and a learning curve as a Leader of Men. All one has to do to demonstrate that is listen to his interviews in 2018 and 2019 and compare them to interviews in 2020 and 2021. One of the smartest things Daboll did as HC was hire a good OC (Pat Mahomes QB coach as a matter of fact) and a good DC, then give them space.

I don't think people are arguing that Mahomes isn't the top QB in the league right now. I think he cemented that by changing a lot of his offensive cast (still has Kelce though) and still winning a Championship. Relative to Mahomes, Allen was in a terrible situation: 1. Mahomes got a full rookie year to watch and learn behind a very capable veteran QB with one of the top offensive coaches in the league at his side. 2. In year 2, 2018 Mahomes was given the keys to a ready-to-drive sports car of an offense that had been 6th in points and 5th in yards in 2017. Kareem Hunt at RB 1300 yds; Tyreek Hill at WR; Travis Kelce at TE. Decent OL book-ended by Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, Mitch Morse at C. Mahomes ELEVATED that sports car and made it work better, but the car and all its components were there. 3. When Mahomes did take over, he had another capable and experienced veteran in Chad Henne backing him up and helping him on the sideline, and a very good, experienced QB coach in Mike Kafka In contrast, Allen was declared not ready to start and took #3 snaps most of the preseason, then was flung into the fire halfway through Game 1 when it was clear Peterdude was still a hot mess under center. His OL couldn't block - Vlad Ducasse at LG got him impaled, Russell Bodine was a mess at C, Miller and Mills on the R side - Aye Yi Yi. It was Daboll's first year with the Bills as OC and he had a bad track record elsewhere. I couldn't figure out what he was trying to accomplish on many plays, even allowing for poor execution. Allen was throwing to Zay Jones, Robert Foster (who couldn't run routes or track the ball) and Fat Kelvin Benjamin. Frankly, I think Allen picked up some bad habits that year he's still working to shake, such as bailing from the pocket and trying to make things happen himself because he had no one else he could count on. Daboll improved a lot from 2019-2021 but even there, there would still be a play or a handful of plays every 2nd or 3rd game where I'd be "what were you trying to do?" - that 3rd and 5 backward pass to Singletary in the 4th Q vs Pittsburgh would be an example. Even McDermott couldn't extenuate that one!!!!! The line has improved, but it's never IMHO been a top line - middle of the pack, no more - and we've never had a good run game besides Allen. The WR improved in 2019 and more with the addition of Diggs, but we've never had the equivalent of the Kelce-Hill 1-2 punch or even the Kelce-Tiktokboy. Kelce is in a class of his own where teams just can't cover him when he's "on". "KC's D has sucked most of the time Mahomes has been there" Get Out of Here with that, Bad Take. It wasn't so good his first year 2018 - 24th - but since then 7th, 10th, 8th and 16th. They moved on from 2018 DC Bob Sutton to Steve Spagnuolo in 2019 and have been solid to good ever since, despite regularly rebuilding their player personnel at LB and DB. Chris Jones and Frank Clark are Beasts. Anyway, I don't think there can be real argument that Allen is still in a worse situation than Mahomes as far as his OL and skill players, leaving coaching out of it. It's why so many of us are pretty fierce to see the Bills really invest in offense this off-season, because we don't want to see Allen turn into Rodgers or worse, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck - a QB whose career was prematurely truncated because his team let him down and didn't protect him well enough or put enough talent around him.

Do you believe Daboll came to Buffalo as a "coach of the year" level coach? Or did he grow and develop during his time in Buffalo? I know how I see it. Good question. What do you think the answer is? Spoiler: the reason is that the pro athlete is, in fact, just as sensitive or more so as the fans, and when dissed in public can't let it go

Thanks for putting this together, Virgil FWIW on their Combine "One Bills Live" segment, Brown and Tasker hosted Greg Cosell. He talked about the Bills needing a "3 level wide receiver" who can stretch the field vertically as well as run option routes, play inside, and play the intermediate game. Cosell suggested Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers as two players who could fit that description and contribute immediately for the Bills. He thought one of them would likely be there at 27. Flowers is 5'9" and 182 lbs with 29" arms. I know that Beane and McDermott are firm believers in the adage "it's the size of the fight in the dog, not the size of the dog in the fight", but, in a league where all the players are fantastic athletes, it seems to me that height and arm length do matter for WR. I don't want to see the Bills build another team where "our WR are Smurfs" as in 2019 (and our Smurfs got neutralized by press man coverage and uncalled holding in several games, including the playoff vs. Hou).

OK, different from 2021 then when Kumerow was one of the gunners?

What did Anderson do on ST for the Chiefs?

What role did Kumerow play, then? Thought he was one of the gunners as well. Anyway, I think TBN is incorrect that the Bills are going around making decisions about each guy who is owed a (relatively small) roster bonus. I think the decision on McKenzie was driven by feeling that Harty (and Shakir, and Hines) can fill every role they saw for McKenzie next season and do it better, so bye! Unless they signed someone who they have on film as a top notch gunner AND a Dime back AND can play Nickel, I agree, Neal stays. But then, I did think that $250k-$350k was too small an amount not to bring McKenzie into camp to compete and clearly the Bills valued his $2.2M now more than his camp competition, so you never know.