Beck Water

Can someone talk me through the meaning of DVOA (use small words and speak slowly)? And yeah, I've read their blurb at https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods I THINK what this means is the Bills offense has very good results vs nickel D, and somewhat bad results vs. base D (which, I don't think we face too often) while the Dolphins defense has good results when running a base defense, but poor results when running a nickel What do the numbers in parentheses mean? By the way, Aaron Schatz is the one who referred to Allen as a “parody of an NFL quarterback prospect” and said “I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen.”

Correct

We can discuss that, but first let's discuss your contention that the Bills have "too many 3 and outs" while they're factually LEADING THE LEAGUE in 3rd down conversion, and 29th for number of punts. How do you reconcile those things? I'll hang up and listen.

Has not worked for NFLPA since 2008. Had a scandal while there. Have thought he was a low-character guy since the Losman incident.

How about if we check some data? -Sam Martin 29th in punting for the league, 45 punts. Still 29th in punting even if you correct for 17 games -#2 in PPG with 28 -#1 in 3rd down conversion % with 50.3% -even with our vaunted RZ woes, ended the season #9 in RZ % with 60.3% Comparing Martin to the Maytag Repair Man over the 1st 3 weeks was a bit silly given that we had 4 offensive TO against the Rams. It's not a Good Thing to keep your punter bored on the bench if you change possession with fumbles or picks. Much better to "end every possession with a kick".

Did he (Taylor)? The Bengals went into the Bills game 11-4 while the Ravens stood at 10-6. If the Bengals lost later in the week then had a short week to prepare for the Ravens, they could have lost not only the #3 seed, but the div. championship

Normal fans wouldn't, of course. I don't think you're talking to a normal fan here, though. I'm not sure about the 50/50 chance, but finishing the game certainly didn't present any guarantees. At the point where the game was suspended, Cincy was rolling down the field on our D and we had gotten stopped on 3rd down and left 4 points out there. And, we were down 2 DBs.

Greg Tompsett perfectly captures the Enigma that is Davis I'm not sure what "have made efforts to ensure he is their #4 when healthy" means What does it mean? I know you didn't say it but you quoted it so.... MVS is in fact the KC #2 WR. Who is supposed to be #2 and #3? Now...the catch is, he's their #3 receiver, because their #1 receiver is a TE, but even so, who is #3 that would make him #4? But still..... KC signed MVS to a 3 year, $30M contract and he's currently #6 on their cap with $11M hit this year. Given that teams usually spend contract $$ according to their intended contribution, I think it's pretty hard to make an argument that KC didn't intend MVS to be their #2 WR. As far as Davis, he is #33 in the league for yards, #3 for Y/R, tied for #14 for TD. It can not be denied he has some attributes of a quality #3 WR. The yards, the Y/R, the TD catches. I think what people are looking at is the WR corps on the other top teams. We look at Cincinnati with Chase, Higgins and Boyd. We look at KC with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, and MVS. We look at Philly with AJ Brown and Davonte Smith. Even Miami with Waddle and Hill And we go "Dang! Those guys are a Problem for a defense in a way our receivers just Aren't". I suppose we can now cue the posts about me having some unreasonable Davis fan-boy socks now just as I took ***** for it when I objected to all the "cut McKenzie, he totally sucks, he drops more than he catches, he never makes a play" crap But the OP idea "bench Davis and start Brown" is just as cray-cray to me. Davis is a significant part of the Bills 13-3 record. His drops are on him, and he's had a handful more throws we really expect a top NFL WR to catch, but Allen and Dorsey have done him no favors both with play design (he often gets the deeper, lower percentage routes), with tendencies (Allen will make a contested throw to Davis whenever Diggs is covered, instead of taking a shorter more open option), and with making uncatchable throws in Davis direction that get charged to Davis as targets. Allen has also become predictable with the throws to Davis in the RZ, resulting in INTs. He's not a bum or "not a #2 WR", he's just part of a talent gap the Bills have at WR between ourselves and some of the other top teams this season. The problem I think Davis has right now is that the talk is in his head and he's lost some confidence in himself. I think there's something going on with the WR room/coaching.

Your memory is not failing you a bit here. That's who Joe Croom is, and he is indeed the one who shot the Diggs practices

That could be many things

Defenders recognizing plays happens to just about every offense by this time of the year, and the Bills have some formations that are "tells". I think Cover1 said that only about 20-30% of the offense has been retained from Daboll to Dorsey. Part of the issue is personnel. In Beasley, Allen had a slot receiver who could reliably diagnose and get open against zone coverage. Allen trusted Beasley and they talked about how they worked together to watch film and discuss how they were going to play certain looks. He also had a canny veteran who could get open against both man (provided he wasn't getting held) and zone coverage in Sanders, who could also play in the slot. That guy is not on the team this year. McKenzie is better able to get open against man coverage. He's spottier in his abilities to get open against zone. But rightly or wrongly, I just don't think Allen feels a rappore with McKenzie or watches film with him the same way he watched film with Beasley. The "Tell" was something McKenzie said after Allen hurt his elbow and was limited in practice, that Allen told him "I didn't realize you were running that route that way, can you run it this way instead?" Why would it take until week 9 and an injury for that conversation to take place? Something is broken there, which was working with Beasley. Maybe it's communication with Chad Hall who then coaches the WR on what Dorsey and Allen expect of each route. Maybe it's that with canny veterans Brown then Sanders and Beasley, guys just "knew" stuff that McKenzie and Shakir and Cook need to have spelled out and be explicitly told. People in another thread are responding to data that Dorsey isn't using Davis in the slot as much as Daboll did by saying "Dorsey should put Davis in the slot!". Well, it's not so simple. If you have Diggs and Sanders releasing and you put Davis in the slot, you get 3 WR running a route. If you have Diggs and McKenzie releasing and you put Davis in the slot, you have 2 WR running a route if the defense presses or jams the receivers. There's a personnel issue driving usage. The bottom line is with Crowder breaking a leg and Shakir perhaps not developing and contributing as the Bills had hoped, then Davis and McKenzie not being ready to take that step, the Bills have a talent gap at WR.

This is probably true. I spent the first year of Daboll's tenure here trying to figure out WTF a play design was supposed to actually do, and a good part of the second year being able to see what Daboll was trying to do but thinking it was either 1) too cute or 2) ineffective

C'mon Man. Yes, sometimes the reads are deep to shallow. Sometimes the pre-snap or post-snap read is that there's an unblocked defender so the QB is supposed to take the quick route. We've all seen Josh dealing with that situation by evading (or stiff arming) the defender and buying time, buying time when the shallow routes are there. That's not a "function of the offense" or the play design.

I mean, I'm all for the screen game. But when have the Bills been able to run a conventional (not a bubble) screen in, like, the last 4 seasons? There have been threads about this.

Then the majority of Allen fans think incorrectly Allen running is part of the Bills arsenal of weapons and its impact on defenses is part of the game plan It has to be realized (and this is a point Kurt Warner and others have made) that on some "broken plays" where Allen runs or delays and makes a totally improbable throw, there is an "easy" button waiting for him in the form of a short throw with YAC to be made, but Allen seldom takes those when they are most effective (that is to say, immediately). We have seen both. Sometimes Allen misses the throw (wheel route to Hines). The problem is, other teams scout tendencies. Since it's been well known most of the season that Allen will ignore short quick completions with YAC in favor of trying to force the ball in to a double-covered receiver downfield, offenses play us accordingly. It's relatively hard to scheme up "easy completions" when there are 3 guys running routes and 5 DB in coverage plus a dime or LB who can choose what to do. Allen has spoken about this indirectly in his pre-Thursday night interview with Fitz. He said that the QB has to see the field as an extension of the OC and that has taken some time, but they're getting to a good place now. The implication is that Allen was NOT seeing the field as an extension of the OC at times. I think it's true that there has been a disconnect between Allen and Dorsey at times. In the words of Josh Allen, "Okay"

Like most people, Troy Vincent is complicated. As NFLPA President for 4 years, he did some good things, such as starting a program to prepare players for Life After Football, which became the "NFL Business Management and Entrepreneurial Program". He's also been a vocal advocate against domestic violence, speaking about his personal experience as a child. Then, as NFLPA president, he was accused of disclosing confidential personal and financial information about player agents to his business partner, to build his financial services company. In any event, Vincent hasn't been involved in the NFLPA for 14 years, so whether or not they're looking out for the players no longer involves him. In the NFL: Vincent was said to be the source of the false "deflategate" info that the footballs were all under-inflated by 2 lbs and the original 4 game Brady suspension ( a conflict of interest). Florio broke this. He is not a Vincent fan, it's quite clear. I think it's reasonable to suppose that any Buffalo Bills front office personnel still left from 2004-2006 would not be Vincent fans either, because of the Losman incident. But I don't know who those people would be. I thought McDermott and Beane and the Pegulas did a pretty thorough housecleaning. It's pretty clear that the "EASY" button for the NFL here, was going to be if the Bills and Bengals went back on the field and finished the game. So I don't find it far-fetched at all that someone from the NFL, and Vincent is in line to be that someone but would Goodell be far behind? tried to push to make that happen. I don't believe that Buck and Aikman just "made ***** up" about that 5 minutes to warm up, nor that Aponte and McDermott and Taylor were on the phone for a long time outside the locker room because the NFL was in agreement that it would be insensitive and inhumane to continue. Yeah, No Way McDermott said that (sacriligious - and if he in fact believed that he Lord came down and said 'play the game', then McDermott would consider himself bound to Follow the Lord), No Way Beane said that he's far too "smooth" verbally and politically (a good thing). They've also been very "loose lips sink ships" and buttoned up about their organization.

Actually, a player has died on the field before: Chuck Hughes, Detroit Lions, 1971 However, only 1 minute was left in the game. The Bears were leading 28 to 23. So they just let the clock run out. I think legally and medically, a patient who is undergoing attempts to revive them is not considered dead until those efforts are discontinued. But I understand the point. By the "player died because breathing/heart stopped" definition, Belicheck spoke of an incident in 1997 with Reggie Brown. In his case, the cause was neurological, a brainstem/spinal cord injury. Brown received CPR on the field because he wasn't breathing, but woke up 45 minutes later in the hospital and was able to breathe. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2017/12/22/breathing-reggie-brown-relives-injury/108850952/ Again, it was the 4th Q, ~ halfway through, with the Lions leading 13-10. But they did continue the game, which ended in a Lions win 13-10 That in fact, may have been one reason why the NFL delayed making a decision to suspend the game....they may have hoped Hamlin would regain consciousness in the hospital and send a message to the team and the teams, and the Bills would change their minds and feel they could "play for 3". But 1997 was a different era of the NFL and McDermott/Taylor are different coaches than Bobby Ross, and Bill Parcells - who was said to refer to guys who went to the training room more than he thought they should as "the player" rather than by name or by number. What was different about the Bengals game, was that for the first time two coaches with the philosophy of caring about their players and building a bond of love came face to face with a life-or-death tragedy. If they were sincere about walking the walk they talk and "some things are bigger than football", then the right thing to do was say "our focus should be on our injured brother, we can't continue without risk of emotional and physical injury to the players, we got to call the game". I believe McDermott said that outcomes (he didn't say, but I assume being held to forfeit, losing a game check, and dropping to #3 in playoff seeding) were discussed in the locker room and the consensus viewpoint was "we don't care, we're not finishing the game". Then Taylor and his captains came over and made it clear they were on the same page. So in the end, with both head coaches and the players on both teams in agreement, the NFL had the choice between "act like a jerk, or show class". It was pretty clear at that point which side of the PR coin was which. I can't fault the NFL for delaying a decision and talking things through. But I think Troy Vincent made a poor choice to throw ESPN and their crew under the bus and act as though it was never in doubt that the NFL would suspend the game, because I think there is evidence that there was, in fact, doubt and discussion (from the NFL side): 1) Burrow warming up 2) Diggs giving the team a pep talk and the defense putting their helmets on 3) Buck saying both teams had been given 5 minutes to warm up and they were going to continue the game 4) no one from the NFL reaching out and correcting ESPN

Yeah, but no "Deep Throat" from the Bengals has been "off the record" contradicting Troy Vincent's "that would insensitive" story 'Course officially, no one from the Bills has done that either... That would be the reason to fear "retribution" of a subtle sort

Florio, who I have varied opinions about, makes a reasonable point By basically pointing at the experienced and well-connected ESPN broadcast team of Joe Buck and their rules expert Parry as basically saying what they did on air without any league source or justification, the league basically set up an “Us vs Them” situation with ESPN. If the league and Vincent has been willing to acknowledge that there was a lot of confusion in an unprecedented situation, there’s a standard protocol that was going to be implemented until it became evident that this wasn’t a standard situation and it called for a different approach - no one would be talking about this. But by trying to paint the NFL entirely as a sensitive, kindly organization wholly on top of a basically unprecedented situation, and ESPN as full of baloney, Vincent triggered the Press Reflex to research the story and get to the bottom of it.

Same for Diggs getting the players to huddle up and giving them an impassioned speech, and the Bills players defensive players putting their helmets on. Don’t see that happening if no one in a position of authority (NFL) hadn’t told them they were expected to warm up and get back to the game.

So Troy Vincent played for the Bills for 3 years from 2004 to 2006. He is the player who broke JP Losman’s leg during his rookie year. The whole bit about Troy Vincent being the wrong person in the wrong position at the wrong time, “he wants to be the hero but he will never take accountability”, sounds like someone who has formed an opinion about Troy Vincent from personal experience with him. - possibly while Vincent was in Buffalo and did not take responsibility for breaking the leg of a red-shirted player who was intended to be the team’s QB of the future. I’m not sure who that would be, but probably someone who’s been around the Bills for 14-15 years. Edit: I agree with you that would ABSOLUTELY not be McDermott who said that about the Lord coming down, pretty sure he would consider that. blasphemous. Beane is also much too politically savvy to go “off the record” with stuff that might put him in an adversarial position with the NFL or disadvantage his team with the NFL, and it doesn’t sound like his word use.

Oh I agree with you there. Please do not use the name Rob Boras and the term “offensive coordinator” as a title applying to that name near me. At least give me a minute to leave the room and shut the door behind myself, or put on some good noise cancelling earbuds, first It was, and there were objections that it disadvantaged candidates from winning teams, so they changed it.

Does anyone think this is a good idea? (Giving Murray significant input into the next head coach selection - not just “talk to these guys, give us your impressions” but input?) To be fair, he might focus on his wife too, or is she his GF? What the hell was that about, can anyone explain to me? I can’t blame LaFleur for having a player who can’t control himself when he’s triggered…these guys are all walking a fine line with control. We’ve had 2 players here who struggled with it during their careers, Incognito and Jerry Hughes.

There are a lot of posters here who are scared of everyone and everything. Somehow the Bills have tied a franchise-best W record of 13 wins (previously achieved by the same coaching staff in 2020) while: -our HC makes horrible in game coaching decisions -our OC can’t scheme guys open -our DC can’t make adjustments or use our DBs properly -all three inexplicably don’t play the best players on offense and sometimes on defense -or they play them in the wrong position (see Edmunds, Tremaine) -we have no talent on OL or at WR I’m sure I missed some stuff It’s perplexing to me how this happened

LOL you don’t get to choose I think McDermott feels Frazier deserves a shot, and Frazier feels he deserves a shot, but someone who is hiring a HC has to agree I tend to agree with you In fact, if I were Dorsey, I would be “No Thanks, More to Learn First” but There are only 32 of these jobs in the world, and people who eventually want one, tend to seize any offer they get