Beck Water

I don't want this to happen, but it's low hanging fruit to predict that you and those like you will celebrate McKenzie's departure only for so long as it takes the new "upgrade" guys Harty and Sherfield to make a gaff in a game or two. This board seems to like to choose "escape goats" where folks dwell on every mistake and discount every good play, while other players seemingly have their mistakes overlooked or forgotten.

My point remains. We've been told that KC prioritized OL, unlike the Bills. So if their off season moves project their OL to be struggling and worse, what does that say about their judgement/priorities? (obtaining a RT to play LT for them worked out pretty well for them with Orlando Brown)

Hmmmmm. Well, any time I say something like this, it turns out to be what the Bills actually do OK, now wait a minute. Those grades put KC as having a worse OL than we did. I thought KC was our example of a team that valued the OL and improved it so we should emulate them? (either that, or this is fun and those grades should be taken with some salt)

The DT rotation we had in 2023 was not as successful at penetrating and pressuring the QB as most would like, but they were pretty successful at keeping the OTs off the LB so they could do their LB thing. The main issue I saw with Bernard from his limited game is that he seemed to understand where he should be most of the time (he had a handful of mistakes), and get there most of the time, but he couldn't close the deal and make the tackle once he got there. He got trucked.

Except that the cap situation for all teams doesn't stay static. Teams which have great cap situations with rookie QB and a couple WR on cheap deals, have to pay them. It's a mistake - a pretty big one. He's still under contract to the Cardinals, it would be a trade.

So now you're puzzling me. You say in your previous post, that you think we've got the skill positions covered. In this post, that we (already) have a room full of receivers who can make more than enough catches. Then you say that Emmanuel was proven, but "turned out to be not so good". But in 2021, he had 42 catches for 626 yds, 14.9 y/r, 31 1st downs on 77% of the snaps - compare with Davis, who had 35 receptions for 549 yds, 29 1st downs, 15.7 y/r on 91% of the snaps. So if those #s for Emmanuel Sanders "turned out to be not so good", what do you say about Sanders, whose numbers were actually a bit better? I'm having trouble parsing both those notions. I'm glad you're confident, but I think we're way short of having the "skill positions covered". I think we have some guys with potential - but it remains to be seen whether they can haul in Josh Allen "Piss Missiles" in cold wet weather and make enough plays. We have strong agreement about "work on the line", because we're not going to be able to put two RBs on the field (especially Cook and HInes) unless we improve at RT enough that we don't need Knox over there to chip, nor will Harris run anything like what he has, nor will Josh Allen have time to attack deep reliably.

Worse, GM speak - during FA

They seem to be viewing him more as a Parris Campbell replacement https://coltswire.usatoday.com/lists/colts-free-agency-isaiah-mckenzie-instant-analysis-2023/

It's a good question. The Colts PRs last season were Keke Coutee (who is a FA) and Hines (who they traded to us). KR Isaiah Rodgers and Dallis Flowers still on the roster.

No, because McKenzie wasn't an UFA this season, he was cut.

Tell me more about your Jim Bob Cooter love

I look at this and go back and forth a bit. Fundamentally, I agree much more than I disagree that the two biggest areas for improvement are OL and Dorsey, with Allen re-discovering his willingness to play a more diverse game and take advantage of the timely short pass to a player who can create YAC a strong third. That said, let me ask you this: the Bills came out of 2019 with John Brown as a proven >1000 yd receiver and Beasley as a 67 reception, ~800 yd slot. They went into 2020 with Stefon Diggs as #1 and Brown and Beasley as #2 and #3, then added Davis as a promising rookie "ahead of schedule". Do you feel we are anything near to the same place as far as proven WR talent to where we were going into the 2020 season? Likewise, in 2021 we went into the season with Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders (a more complete WR than Brown with several >1000 yd seasons and still capable), Beasley just off an almost-1000 yd season, and Davis just off a promising, 35 reception 600 yd rookie year. Do you feel we are anything near to the same place as far as proven WR talent to where we were going into the 2021 season?

I'm not sure what you mean by "They already made the decision to" and "the money is tied up". Could you explain please?

Yeah, there are what you might call "type I" and "type II" errors in draft-and-develop; "type I would be reaching a false positive conclusion that a guy's "best football is ahead of him" and he can still develop into the player he was drafted to be. "Type II" would be reaching a false negative conclusion, and giving up on a player as "not gonna cut it" too early. Beane stuck with Cody Ford through 3 seasons before trading him, and looks likely to stick with Spencer Brown through 3 seasons. So the Spencer Brown "type II" error (if so it proves) may take place on the same time frame. I assume you're speaking of Wyatt Teller, and actually, I don't think either of those errors were committed with Teller. For one thing, Teller's development with the Browns (again, assuming that's who you're talking about) did not take place on the timeframe you speak of. Teller started 9 games for the Browns the year we traded him, 11 games (where he was starting to look good) in his 3rd year, and became a Pro Bowler (not an All-Pro) in his 4th season - a much more gradual development than "immediately became an All-Pro elsewhere" implies. I think the error with Wyatt Teller was in how the team fundamentally values OL traits. Beane demands positional flexibility from backup OLmen or guys who might be backup OLmen that season - they have to be able to play both sides as G and ideally perhaps C as well. So keeping a guy to develop at LG or RG is assigned a lower priority than keeping a guy who can switch to either side and maybe play C. That's why the Bills kept Ryan Bates, Ike Boettger, and Spencer Long over Teller.

I can agree with that. There are lots of ways to create "enough" offense. But I would argue you need at least 2 elite playmakers of some sort - a RB, a TE, a slot - or maybe one elite and two very good players. In any event, the Bills were short last season, and I'm not sure the FA moves to date fill that gap. I'm hoping they intend to look in the draft.

You lost me at the "have you looked at the stats?" for the OL. We know that Allen's mobility and his willingness to bail out of the pocket and extend the play or run, make stats on sacks rather deceptive when evaluating the actual OL quality. I believe McDermott has acknowledged that Allen was affected in the pocket more than they'd like. He's also developing bad habits - Greg Cosell has commented on how you can't tell why Allen will leave the pocket (eg, he may be feeling phantom pressure) and Kurt Warner that he will bail from the pocket when he has a play if he stays and throws. I think that means at least as much as sack stats in assessing OL quality. JMO. Yes, it's one game, but it's one game against the team that played in the Superbowl in 2021 and the AFCCG in 2022. We also scored 24 or fewer points in 7 games, 3 of which we lost. If the goal is for the Bills to take a step and win a championship, is the best metric really how many points we score against any 'ol team on our schedule? Or is it appropriate to focus on how we score against the top competition in the league, like KC and Cincinnati, or top defenses like the Jets? I disagree that we don't need better WR. We'll see if Shakir takes a step - I'd love to see it. But when I watch the top teams in the league, I see WR running routes and making catches that pretty much only Diggs on the Bills can pull off.

Premium FA, No. I had hopes of a draft pick though. 2nd round maybe. The thing is, we heard exactly the same song from Beane about Cody Ford. He was playing hurt, he had surgery off-season and didn't get in a full season of conditioning, I think we'll see that he's one of our best 5, weren't those the lyrics? Same theme slightly different words with Brown. I would love to be wrong and to see Brown make a big improvement. In some of the Bills "fluff" pieces, Brown comes across as a guy who not only doesn't grind in the film room and meetings, but who mocks out others who do (Bates). That's not a guy who is going to make the steps the Bills need from him.

It reached its nadir in 2011 with the Bills. For most of the rest of his career, and especially after Bill O'Brien benched him in Houston, Fitz did a bit better with the picks. And for the most part, in the rest of the career, it was his brain writing a check his arm couldn't catch, not the "I expect you to run this route, but you ran that route" that we saw with Stevie.

This is the sort of signing that I really don't know how I feel about. If he's on a cheap contract, it makes sense to bring back someone who knows the offense for camp and etc. He's got Game, and there wasn't that big a fall off from Brown to Quessenberry last season. But that's a very low bar to say "not that big of a fall off from Brown to Quessenberry". We simply can't improve our OL by keeping it the same, so if it's "Conner McGovern and a mid-round rookie" my heart just sinks.

It would be naive to think that our GM Beane is speaking "the whole truth" in his pressers. But he sure talked as though we couldn't possibly re-sign Edmunds because that would mean being unable to sign Gabe Davis and Ed Oliver. I think the Bills FO likes Davis a lot more and sees his problems as being a lot smaller and fewer than Bills fans do. I really want to see the Bills draft an offensive player other than RB high in the draft this season, but I think it's a real concern that the Bills don't see it that way. Me, my major concern is these phantom ankle sprains that allegedly hamper him from running good routes for half the season, two years in a row. How do you figure that 85% chance? I would like to believe you. IMHO, the place where the Bills really need to upgrade is on OL. Giving Allen a higher feeling of security in the pocket and a bit more time there will help all the WR. BOOM! You nailed it ...... IF the OL is improved. Knox can be freed to be the receiver we want him to be, and our RBs can be freed to contribute in the pass game more, IF the OL is improved. That would be IMHO, awful.

Says they're all hers, no multiple births. Up until the arrival of hormonal birth control in the 60s, it was not that uncommon for a woman to bear 16 children. If she married at 18, went through the change at 51, and had a kid every 2 years, that's 16. The difference was, before the arrival of vaccines, antibiotics, and the rest of modern medicine, it was not unusual for a contagious disease like diptheria to go through the family like a scythe and wipe out 5 or 6, another contagious disease to take a few more before their 2nd birthday, an infection following an accident or a broken bone to take out a few more - so the family size would wind up at 8 or 9.

Kelce does split wide and run out patterns to the sideline at times (you might be surprised how much), but that's probably a quibble. They're not his bread and butter, I agree. But the thing about Kelce is, he doesn't need to be able to get great separation with speed. He can do a subtle push-off that helps him separate, but at 6'5" and 256, it takes a very athletic CB and help in coverage to defend him because it's "always open a foot over his head" and if the CB leaps to make a play on the ball but Kelce catches it anyway, he's gone. As far as slots and TE NOT being the most physically gifted receivers on the team (emphasis yours) - Do you really want to make an argument that Kelce isn't one of the most physically gifted players on the KC team? I wouldn't go there myself. I agree of course that KC tailors their offense to him, but I'm not sure what your point is - offenses all tailor to their best skill players. We tailored to Beasley. And for that matter, do you want to argue that 2020 Beasley wasn't one of the most physically gifted players on the Bills team in his prime? Think of that one-handed leaping sideline catch during the AZ game. Not the fastest, no, but one of the most physically gifted, yes. I think you might also be surprised at how much, when you look under the hood, the "most gifted WR on the team", the #1, for many teams, actually lines up in the slot or in a stacked formation. I believe Diggs played about 30% from the slot this season, and I remember hearing that one of the drivers for Jefferson's phenomenal season with the Vikings was that he played much more from the slot last season. Bottom line, I don't think you get to exclude Kelce from being the Chief's #1 receiver on the grounds of "living over the middle", unless you also look at how much all the other top receivers last season "lived over the middle" and exclude them too, and look at how much other teams tailor their offense to their #1. It's analogous to discounting the Bills run game as too reliant on Allen, then comparing to other teams without subtracting out their QB contributions - a lot of the deck re-shuffles.

Agree. That's fundamentally what Chan Gailey taught in his version of E-P offense - "beat your man, get to the spot". There's a downside, though, which was that when Stevie did something Fitz didn't expect or they weren't on the same page, we got some awful interceptions.

Yes, I agree - the Jets need to pull the trigger much earlier. Not just chemistry, but they need a playbook tailored to the strengths of their QB whoever that might be. But they've already limited their options at QB. Who will they move on to, at this point? My point was only that I think GB kind of has the Jets over a bit of a barrel here.

Well, no, not exactly. The contract gives Rodgers an "option bonus" of $58M, exercisable between Mar 17 and Week 1. If it's exercised, it amortizes over the life of the contract and GB owes Rodgers $31M this season but it makes him less tradeable in future years as it gives them more dead cap. But they have until Week 1, so they can sit and wait.