Beck Water

Dude, I think you are mixed up about a bunch of things. PFF provides all kind of data. Some of it is relatively raw data - what formations a team uses in different down and distance situations, what formation was used against it, success rate. Catch % of different WR on different routes. Coverage tendencies on ST given game situation and distance. They are very good at that data. It is indeed impressive, and it's widely used by teams. Then there are the player grades. Especially for OL and DL, the PFF graders are NOT primarily comprised of "former NFL players, coaches and scouts". They are comprised of low-level grunts, many of whom have never watched football and are being introduced to it for the first time (being a UK based company). They get some training on what to score and are then turned lose to do it. Their scoring is reviewed by people who know more, but it's far too much weekly data for the higher level experts to review in depth So, the PFF player grades are variable in how useful they are. They can see, for example, that two receivers have run routes and end up very close to each other, which probably wasn't what the play desired - but which of them ran the correct route? They can see that coverage broke down - but who missed the assignment? They don't know. It gets even worse with OL and DL play because they're guessing what the blocking assignments were on OL and what the gap assignments were on DL. They may be educated guesses, but they're just guesses. If you think they've got a former OLman or a former OL coach or a former DLman or a former DL coach breaking down every play based on expert knowledge of that specific team's schemes and tendencies, guess again. Then you have situations where Milano graded very poorly in a game against KC - but he clearly excelled at what the Bills had asked him to do, which was spy on Mahomes and attack once he was flushed to one side. Anyway, the player grades are primarily a tool designed for fantasy football and marketed to the general public. I would be astounded if teams based their evaluations of their own OLmen, or OLmen they sign, on PFF grades, and nothing you've quoted above provides any evidence that the ydo.

Why, on "love to see Mitch"? Canonically, we want a backup who can come into a game or start a couple games and give us a 50/50 chance to win. Overall, that's what we had with Keenum. Statistically, that's what we'd have with Mitch, but frankly, he played like a Lost Boy for Pittsburgh last season. Did not look like a guy who can lead a team at all, whereas I had a sense that the team would have followed Keenum, they knew he couldn't make the throws that Allen could but they trusted his head for the game.

That's pretty faulty logic. The Cowboys have McGovern ( a 3rd round pick) penciled in as a backup behind Zach Martin, their highly paid right guard and Tyler Smith, last year's 1st round pick. Like any team that's paying their QB 12% of their cap and then a couple other guys well, the Cowboys operate on a "Stars and JAGs" model. "Good backup we can't afford" behind a very promising 1st round pick and a top guard they're paying as such, is not the same as "not a good player". There's also the relativity factor. DaQuan Jones on the Redskins was a backup, behind Daron Payne on the depth chart. He was a very good player for us last season. Is he a star, No. Is he potentially a good player, better than "very average", Yes. He could, actually. I won't type the names, but we have had LG who have been worse than Saffold in the last 5 years. That is depressing. See above. It is certainly possible to be worse than Saffold. But I will be very disappointed if signing a backup G/C from the Cowboys is the extent of our OL investment, just as signing Saffold was pretty much the extent of our OL investment last season. Not Enough.

Could be. Though Dawkins struggled in 2020 after he caught Covid, until he was playing next to Boettger then Bates. And I thought Brown played better next to Williams in 2020 than he did last year next to Bates.

To be fair, the people who think PFF OL grades are crap and the people using them to support their opinions are not necessarily the same. In fact, I think they're pretty much a disjoint set. I thought Bates played better on the L side in 2021 than he did on the R side in 2022.

I guess they had to make some kind of gesture what with paying Mike White 2 yrs/$8M

My guess would be that an extension for DaQuan Jones might be in the work. He was a Force last year. He is turned 31, but interior DLmen can be effective longer. IF we're losing Poyer, I also wouldn't rule out a small extension for Hyde though that's dangerous business with him coming off the neck surgery. Oh, wow - just saw that Matakevitch is said to have signed a 1 year, $2.5M extension - yowza.

Just me, but I wouldn't worry about the draft picks just now. I don't think Beane is. We only need top-51, which is gonna be about $5M. Beane will keep restructuring and tweaking contracts after FA. He'll be using that $9M $15M to sign FA now. Oh, good catch - I didn't see that Spotrac hadn't put in the Milano extension. Agree, McGovern is said to be $4M this season, and I'm betting Matekavich and Lewis are minimal deals, so close to a wash. That's exciting, it means we still have close to that $15M for FA.

Most of the specific reason is that the Bills were $19M over the cap and he needs some $$ to sign some guys (not necessarily big splashes, just guys) and to sign draft picks, with all the FA the Bills have. Good questions. Spotrac already has Martin's contract accounted for and shows us $15M under. No details on McGovern yet, that's reported as $4M against the 2023 cap, so leaves $11M. I would assume Matakevitch and Lewis are pretty low budget moves, vet minimum type. Maybe leaves about $9M Edit: I missed that Spotrac didn't have the Milano restructure, so more like $14-15M

Interesting! Spotrac shows that as an option bonus of 5 - $3.2M per year - so I assumed that had already been exercised. But, if it's due coming up - yeah, I see your calculations. He could be traded for a $21.6M dead cap, which is indeed only $1.3M more than his current year cap hit. Still, in a tight cap year, for the Bills to trade one of their two most talented offensive players, take any cap hit at all, and lose his services - the payoff would have to be pretty damned big. I did not know that one couldn't designate a trade post June 1, though that makes sense now that I think about it. Thanks!

I know. My point was, Mango isn't the only one who rolls eyes at his trolling.

LOL Bease called him out

I think "Some body" is mis-understanding what they read on OverTheCap, which is a bit confusing. https://overthecap.com/player/stefon-diggs/3994 In a trade designated "post June 1", it's true that Diggs would cost $11.8M against the cap this season, as his guaranteed salary would go to the trade partner. But Diggs has a $7.5M prorated bonus due in '24, '25, and '26, then $3.2M due in '27. That sums to $25.7M dead cap hit in 2024 for the Bills if they trade him, and designate the trade their single "post-June 1" move. $11.8M + $25.7M = $37.5M, which agrees with the dead cap hit reported for a pre-June 1 trade. I think you know this, but also to be understood is that in a post-June 1 scenario, Diggs counts against the Bills cap at his current $20.3M cap number until after June 1.

I don't think this guy is particularly credible, but here are the remaining FA LB as of like 30 minutes ago. Rumors have Okereke going to the Jets. Edit: and now Singleton said to be re-upping in Denver Isn't the DraftDiamonds guy Damond Talbot? Yeah, googled - he's the "owner". I think Ryan Talbot is related to him - not brothers but cousins or something. So it's not necessarily independent confirmation, but like @boyst says, Damond is good at building relationships with the small school guys and maintaining them, and David (hard to believe it now) was a small-school guy.

Awwwww man! C'mon Pack hijack them airplanes for more ransom!

2 year, $16M is pretty strong money for a backup OK, well, there is that "up to" weasel-word in there so I guess we'll see.

I didn't think the Jets were engaging in widely publicized tampering, but...... It's just weird. He's literally $40M of dead cap to them this year, when they only have something like $19M. They need to come up with an extra $9M of dead cap just to trade the guy. I hope the Packers hold the Jets up for some good comp Sean Payton checking Russell Wilson into hospital for treatment of his shoulder or elbow and coming to visit him like he did with Brees.

Thank you. I don't follow the Bears a lot, but it was my impression they were playing majority Nickel. Smart teams typically don't pay top dollar for a FA with the intention of using them in an entirely different way than the way they succeeded enough to become top dollar FA.

Who are these teams who base OL contracts off OL PFF grades?

I scanned this thread and saw no answer to this question. Since you've been awake, Bright Eyes, I await your elucidation of this mystery.

No Darnold

I know I'm late to the fair here, but as this report pointed out: Why would the Packers give Rodgers permission to seek a trade, when trading him is gonna cost them a small fortune in dead cap?

We're not going back to a 4-3

Do you think the Bears are going to play a conventional 4/3 with Edmunds outside?

It kind of is a bizarre move. While Roquan Smith's contract sounds huge (5 years, $100,000), it's $45M guaranteed at signing with very moderate cap hits the next 2 years. We'll have to wait for the details, but 4 years, $72M with $50M guaranteed - for that, you'd think they could have kept Smith who IMHO is the better player.