Beck Water

To my point about Allen playing as though the "governor" were off his Ferrari - Allen had gotten markedly better about taking the checkdowns in 2020 and even better in 2021. And even last season, he had games where he methodically moved the ball down the field - the loss at Miami, the win at KC. Last season, he mysteriously stopped taking those chain moving throws AND started running like a maniac again. The $93.7M question for Allen, Dorsey, and McDermott is how to reverse that trajectory.

His point is: if the board is flooded with it, by definition it is NOT an unpopular opinion.

I'm sure, but I searched the thread for what I thought to be likely keywords and couldn't find it.

I musta missed the actual news about AZ's price. Is that what they want? The 49ers took a lot of criticism for giving up essentially the heart of their draft board this year (2nd 3rd and 4th) plus a late pick (5th) next year. But, they got a 26 yr old player under contract for 4 years, with a minor salary in 2023 and a reasonable $12M/yr going forward. And, he was a true difference maker. To ask that for a 31 yr old player who gets $19.5M this year and $14.9M next, for a guy who only played 19 of 34 games last two seasons, ended 2021 with an MCL injury, took PEDs and was suspended 6 games in the healing process, and reportedly missed the last two games of 2022 because he "tweaked" that injury - Wow. I do NOT want the Bills to pay that price. Maybe that's just me. But Hopkins would not be a "final piece" for the Bills. We need an MLB, another 3TDT, and IMHO at least solid RT competition for Brown. Rapaport is legit, but to take what he tweeted and apply it to the Bills sounds like heavy speculation to me.

I dunno, Gunner. Last season Josh was pulling ***** he hadn't pulled since his rookie year and somewhat his 2nd season. Hurdling guys, trucking guys. It was like someone took the governor off his engine. He was not doing that stuff in 2020 and 2021 to the same degree. I think he must have finished the season bruised and beaten to hell, and it hindered him, and he and McDermott both know it. I don't think you'll take it out of him entirely, but I don't see why he can't at least go back to what he was doing in 2020. Have you looked at the all-22 to verify that there were no underneath options that would have moved the chains om some of those? I have not. I ask, because in earlier games where Josh was throwing deep a lot, there actually were players open underneath that would have gained yards (on 1st and 10) or moved the chains (on 3rd and 4, 3rd and 2. I can't tell you if Josh doesn't see them, or doesn't trust them, or doesn't trust himself to hit them. But I can tell you they were there in previous games, and I believe they were probably there against Cincy.

Absolutely! As I said, totally understandable to want an upgrade - but let's give the guy credit for what he's asked to do and what he's done.

In fact, he does not lead the league in drops https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/receiving_advanced.htm He's like 14th in drop percentage, which I think is the most meaningful number. I'm not saying he doesn't have too many drops, but why exaggerate? What are their metrics? Because by passer rating when targeted, he's pretty low - but that's a metric that speaks at least as much about the QB and when/how he targets the WR. Gabe can have a low passer rating when targeted because Josh is throwing it away in his general direction a lot, or throwing him off-target, uncatchable balls. By most metrics which most people use to assess WR, he's quite a bit better than that - you know, receiving yards (33), yds per game (34), Y/R (2), TD (19) 1D (49). His catch % is low though (186) but again, I'm not sure that's all on him - I think Josh did him no favors with the target #s. That's not to say that you, or I, or the Bills, shouldn't be wanting an upgrade at #2, but why not recognize what the guy did, and did well?

Concur. Also as I've said elsewhere, Beane has talked about "his process" for want of a better term - he likes to focus on our impending FA, on FA, and make contract changes/extensions only as he needs to to get under the cap and sign his FA. Then the draft. Then he gets to work on contract extensions.

There had been talk the previous fall when Diggs went AWOL and got fined. But the Vikes said "no". When it happened, there was none of this long dragged out schtuff. Diggs tweeted something about a new beginning, Beane's people called Vikes "hey, is he available?" and the next thing we knew he was in Buffalo.

Why should we give credence to a dude called "ErieCountyBulls" who is following almost as many people as he has followers? I mean, I know a guy has to start somewhere but for someone who joined Twitter in 2014, 9 years ago, those are miniscule numbers Has this guy ever said anything else that shows credibility? https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/sports/bills/brandon-beane-address-deandre-hopkins-speculation?utm_campaign=sharebutton&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=WGRAM

I think we'll see a DaQuan Jones extension, and possibly from comments Beane has dropped an Ed Oliver extension. Beane has made it clear in the past that before FA and the draft, he focuses on renegotiating contracts/extensions only as needed to generate cap. Then after the draft, he gets busy looking at extensions. I'm sure they'll draft DL as well, the question is where?

Crass to follow my own post, but I got news On Ed Oliver. Beane sounds like he plans on him being here and even mentioned extension: Also, it's reported Jordan Phillips has been to Buffalo on a FA visit. Since he knows the facility, I would assume that would be for a physical check and maybe a look at how he's working out, maybe a chat about the defense?

I mean, I read his scouting report - I read Bernard's scouting report. I never said that I thought speed and size are the only things that matter. I asked how the two of them differ. Your answer?

Please say more about this belief. Seriously - based on his scouting report, preseason, the 6 games where he saw snaps on ST (mostly early in the season), the 12 snaps he saw on D - whatcha got? PS in case not clear - pure request for information and understanding

So you can't change who he fundamentally is, but you can change how he applies who he is. Fundamentally, Josh Allen is very competitive. So if you persuade him the best way to win is to give other people the ball and let them make plays, that's what he'll do. If he gets into a mindset like "Sebastian the Frog" where "You want it done right, you got to do it yourself", he'll run. Case in point: Josh ran less in 2019 and 2020. Less attempts per game, less yards. In 2019, he was given Brown and Beasley. In 2020, Diggs. So Josh saw that the way to win was to get those guys the ball and let them make plays. In 2021, Emmanual Sanders was not what we hoped and Beasley had fallen off, and the run game was moribund, plus, teams had figured out how to defend us more effectively. So, Josh ran more. In 2022, even more so - the scheme was less effective, the way Josh was executing it was less effective, Josh went into "superhero" mode. Get him more tools, and he'll use them. INteresting perspective. I think he had several. One was named Lee Smith and he was traded to Atlanta in 2021. One was named Daboll and is now coaching in NJ The damage they do to black cars - yeah, looks ain't everything

Interestingly, a very similar statement using very similar language was made in another thread about 6 days ago, and corrected there (see below) "Ironically, the one time Beane DID give up pretty quickly and trade a drafted player away, said player immediately became an All-Pro elsewhere. Unfortunately, that incident only seems to have increased Beane's willingness to stick it out with other, lesser players." Teller did NOT instantly develop into an All-Pro guard. In his 2nd season (1st with the Browns) he started 9 games, then 11, then in his 4th year went to Pro-Bowl (was not all pro). Not taking away that today he is a very good guard, but it wasn't "instant all pro" when he went elsewhere. The explanation has been made multiple times. @Bleeding Bills Blue's explanation is correct, minus a few details. The Bills were determined to give Allen a functional NFL center. They demand positional flexibility from their backup guards. Morse was in concussion protocol most of training camp. Teller was slated into a backup role, but was not as good at switching sides as Bates and Boettger, nor did he have experience starting at C like Long or show promise at C like Bates. So Teller was odd man out. In hindsight, both Feliciano and Bates can play C and play it better than Long, but the GM has to make decisions based on the info he has at the time.

Someone when this was first brought up asserted that some fantastic number - 3/4 or 2/3 or something - of head coaches call plays on one or the other side of the ball. When I asked "who are these coaches then?" or where the info game from I got blown off, but it's actually an interesting question to me. Here's a list of NFL HC, anyone know how many of them call plays? I went on a picnic with my Dad and came home with my Mom....Wait, What?

Interesting approach! How does Hamlin affect your S assessment if he returns? One place where I differ is at WR; I view it as an area where it's difficult to get a true upgrade at the #1-3 position in FA because the position pays such a premium. In FA, one over-pays for aging talent. Thus, I view it as a priority to attempt to draft the best guy we can get our hands on. We haven't drafted a WR above round 4 in 6 years, and we badly need a talent infusion. Don't get me wrong, I like the Harty signing as a high ceiling/low floor shot at #4 and the Sherfield signing as a potential upgrade at #5 since, like Kumerow, he can play teams. But last season showed me we were far from set at #2 and #3, and our depth/development pipeline is currently nonexistent. Another place where I differ is at DL. We currently have 3 of last year's 4 DL rotation under contract. We don't have 2 3TDT of starting caliber on the roster, and unless we plan to extend Oliver, we will have 0 on the roster next season. So it seems like a fairly basic roster need that has yet to be filled. I don't agree entirely, but Ryan O'Halloran's TBN piece is pretty good: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/ryan-ohalloran-bills-have-stood-pat-on-defensive-line-in-free-agency-an-addition-is/article_a736556e-cbf8-11ed-ac35-2b92af8fa11c.html

It would be very odd if the Bills drafted him in the 3rd with no plans to develop him as a starter on D. Beane certainly sounded as though starting Bernard at MLB might be a consideration. And I repeat the question (to the multitudes, not just you) I asked above: Different language is used in the scouting reports, but how is this guy Daiyan Henley different from Terrel Bernard, except for 2 3/4" longer arms and a 0.05s faster 40 time?

I have had this thought for a while. I think when they were players themselves, both Beane and McDermott were undersized players who overachieved for their size. They have also seen the success of players like Kyle Williams. So I think they are both "it's the size of the fight in the dog, not the size of the dog in the fight" type talent evaluators. And there's something to that. I'm told on very good authority by a very big man that much more of football than fans think is mental, not physical. But in the big games, where both teams are very good and willing to play hard and have similar athleticism and skill, the "M" part of the old "F = MA" equation comes into play. IMO, the Bills OL and DL in the Superbowl years tended towards undersized great players, and was one factor behind the SB losses. I am concerned that Beane and McDermott overvalue smaller players. I freely admit that I do not follow college football, but when I read his draft report it has Edmunds-esque language. Help my understand how the Edmunds comparison is far from the truth: "Henley’s playing style can be described as more active than instinctive. His inconsistency in reading keys and anticipating the play flow is mitigated somewhat by his speed and talent to wrap and finish in space. He has excellent range and does a nice job of stepping downhill to challenge blockers and running lanes. There are some eye-catching production totals in the takeaway column and favorable physical elements to his game, but inefficient movement combined with recognition delays could push him toward a backup and core special teams role in the future."

Washington State is a small school? Asking....my knowledge of the college football pecking order is slim.

Just to point out here that I don't think it's a sure thing that Hamlin is going to play The Bills, I believe, have listed Lewis as a CB at this point vs. as a backup safety Mayden is the PS guy they hope may develop You're not gonna want to hear this, but pretty sure Zayne Anderson was signed as a ST guy. 0 snaps on defense, 60% and 69% on ST. ST is also primarily Neal's role That leaves Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, possibly Hamlin with an **, with maybe Lewis and Neal as "break glass in emergency" kind of choices Regarding Neal: as I understand it, the Bills core ST coverage/protection unit has been Tyrel Dodson, Tyler Matakevich, Reggie Gilliam, Siran Neal, Taiwan Jones, Jake Kumerow, and Jaquan Johnson. @GunnerBill correct me if I missed anyone. Johnson has signed with Vegas. Jones and Kumerow are still unsigned The Bills have signed Zayne Anderson and Trent Sherfield, both with a lot of ST experience, so possibly they are going to move on from Jones and Kumerow. I see Sherfield as a big upgrade on Kumerow because he's proven he can actually play WR vs Kumerow, who came to us with Rodger's endorsement but has disappointed. Anderson may actually have potential at Safety because he's young and could develop, vs. Jaquan Johnson who got his chance to play and, 'nuff said. So no, I don't think they're going to move on from more than half of their core ST coverage guys in one year. Neal isn't getting paid because the Bills regard him as so critical as a Dime back and backup safety, he's here because they regard him as a key part of their ST who actually can contribute on D when asked.

That's what I took out of McDermott's comments in the SI article I linked above - that maybe right now he's leaning "no", or at least if he's leaning "yes" he might decide to change his mind on the way in the door.

Well. As some know, I'm still salty about Boogie Basham when Creed Humphrey was on the board so I, too, see improvement at C and a long term plan there as a Strong Need. But Morse is still under contract for 2 more years, and the Bills seem to like Bates as a backup C and perhaps McGovern as a 3rd string. Bottom line, I'm with you, but I don't think the Bills have any plans to draft a C, at least not in the first 4 rounds.

You may disagree, but many think that signing Connor McGovern and Dave Edwards changed up our draft needs at IOL So one theory on the Danna and Holcomb coaching hires is that the Bills may intend to change how they play their safeties somewhat.