Beck Water

I believe I'm the one who crafted that argument, the argument being that the Bills actually weren't asking Davis to be a "move the chains" receiver running "move the chains" routes last year, and the problem was we didn't get enough chain-moving from the receivers who WERE running those routes (Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, Knox). So maybe you already know my answer, but, I am concerned that Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield are NOT enough to address that issue - Harty because he's been injured so much and is so small; Shakir because he couldn't seem to figure out how to dissect zone coverage last season: and Sherfield because the only time he's been productive is in Miami, with defenses scared to death of Waddle and Hill. I do think we have answers on the roster - the TE on many teams is the go-to "move the chains" man and Knox now seems able to catch; Cook and Hines could be very productive as well in the short passing game - but Dorsey and Josh have to figure out how to use them effectively. So I see a good sized "3 level WR" who can play outside and at the intermediate level, as the bigger need.

@Xwnyer, that's by definition not a drop. You may be right that a good number of the targets he doesn't catch were underthrows - that would fit with what Carson Palmer said happened to him when he tried to throw with a partially torn UCL. But they wouldn't be "scored" as drops, because the definition of a drop is a ball that a receiver can catch with "ordinary" effort - meaning it arrives within a rectangle defined a little differently by different organizations who score them (the NFL does not), but it's something like from just over the head (arms still bent) to mid-thigh and side to side just outside the shoulders. That's the reason why many people complain that the "drops" statistic doesn't reflect many balls they see as "an NFL WR should have had that" catchable balls, a ball the receiver could catch by dropping to his knees, or jumping, or extending his arms fully to the side.

Just to be clear, I'm not calling him a bust, that would be unfair based on 1 start. He was playing a lot on teams last year. But in McDermott's Bills defense, if you look up the snap counts from any game 2019-on, Milano, Edmunds, Johnson, Poyer, Hyde, White, and Jackson would play every snap (barring injury, avert!). Now it doesn't have to be that way, but as long as it is, I'm saying it's a poor use of a third round pick to draft a backup at a position where you don't typically rotate. He's all those things. He's a smart football player too, by all accounts. The only critique I have is that part of his get-up-and-go has got-up-and-went with age.

Certainly if they drafted Bernard intending him to just sit on the bench and back up Milano, it seems like a wasted pick If they intended him to back up Edmunds, he seems like the wrong body type, too small, arms too short. He can theoretically pack some muscle onto his frame as Milano did but he can't change his height or his arm length. I wonder if they thought about trading Milano and keeping Edmunds, and that's why they drafted Bernard?

I do understand what you're saying. But at the same time, IMHO Beane and McDermott have gone, let's call it, unnecessarily far into the weeds of "demotivating and demoralizing" the LB on the roster if there's not a genuine competition, and drafting a 1st or 2nd round pick, whom everyone knows will be given a chance to start sooner or later, isn't too genuine. I don't recall that. It makes sense, in that he's very Milano-like in physique and intangibles. However, I stand by my assessment that if he was, Milano's health and his snap usage means it's a pretty poor use of a 3rd round pick. Sort of along the lines of GB drafting Jordan Love in the 1st and letting him sit on the bench for 3 seasons. I would love to see the source where you find him playing DE for the Hokies. He played OLB (and also inside at times). He did not play DE or edge AFAIK, nor was he a pass-rushing OLB.

Huh?

I know you're just the messenger, but Boy Graziano's message is weird. Why would the Jets and Packers be in "no hurry" to get their deal done? You would think the Jets would want to firm up their cap space and draft picture, and ditto the Packers. I could certainly see OBJ wanting to see who the QB is FR FR before signing with a team though.

I mean this in the nicest way, as a suggestion, but if you don't know what Edmunds played in college, why not either ask, or look it up, before pontificating? He did not play DE in college. He was not projected as a pass-rushing OLB or edge in the draft. A team does not field the #2 D on points, #1 on yards, if 1/3 to 1/2 of the field is unattended. Be Better. Who are those two top 100 pick guys? (I honestly don't know)

Then that's a *****-up use of a third round pick, if they intended Bernard as "insurance" for a player at a position which takes 100% of the snaps when healthy. In the last 2 years, since Beane and McDermott gave their "the only thing, and Matt knows this, is availability" before they re-signed him, Milano has played 18 and 17 out of 19 games the last 2 seasons, so possibly he may (as @BADOLBILZ once pointed out Eric Wood and another player whose name escapes me did) have learned how to play a bit more within himself so he lowers his injury risk instead of going balls-to-the-wall every play. Time will tell. I believe I've seen changes. Anyway: Logically, a third round pick should be used on a player you intend to see the field regularly as a starter or as a backup at a position where rotation is expected every game, not on a backup to see the field 3 games in 2 seasons. That's where you draft a guy in the late rounds. Look at our other 3rd round picks: 2018: Harrison Phillips was a backup but at a position where McD is married to a rotation. He saw 38% of the snaps in 16 games his rookie year and was starting to see more before his ACL year 2. 41% his 3rd year, 55% his 4th. He's a backup, but at a position where backups see 1/3 to 1/2 of the snaps every game, and they moved on when it was clear he wasn't good enough to start for them. Left in FA. Now starting for Minn, a playoff team. 2019: Devin Singletary, starter at position where McD is married to rotation. 67% of the snaps his rookie year, 62% overall. Left in FA. Dawson Knox, starter. 64% his rookie year, 87% and 80% his last 2 seasons, Extended. 2020:Zach Moss, backup at a position with rotation, 45% of the snaps his rookie year, 42% of the 2nd year. Traded because he wasn't working out 2021: Spencer Brown, starting at RT. Whether he should be or not is another question, but the intent was clearly to start him. Like John Miller, our 2015 3rd round G who has since started for 2 other teams, Brown can play in the NFL, just maybe not at the top level we want, so perhaps an upgrade is needed. The point is, while a 3rd round pick is not a sure bet as a starter or a long-term building block, it better be used on a player who will see the field regularly. I would say before 2022, the Bills were 4 out of 5 in drafting a player who can see the field regularly with their 3rd round pick, with Zach Moss as a bust. 2 out of 4 in getting a player who starts for them, with the jury still out on #5 (Spencer Brown). That's actually pretty good - success rate in the 3rd I think is 20 or 30% league wide. And there's this: Last year, we went into the regular season with a former 5th round pick (traded a 1st) at #1 WR, a 4th round pick as #2, and 2 5th round picks (McKenzie and Shakir) as the #3 WR. WR, one of the highest paid, highest value skill positions in the draft with most ROI to get high production from draft picks. Yeah, No. If the Bills drafted Bernard with the idea he would back up Milano and be a depth piece at LB, that was a terrible use of a 3rd round pick, especially a guy who Lance Zierlein of NFL.com forecast as a 5th round pick. I mean, maybe you're right, Lord knows his lone start last season was NOT promising, but I hope not. Dylan Parham, who started every game for Las Vegas at G last season, was drafted one pick later than Bernard. Parham did OK as a run blocker and struggled in pass protection, but then, so did our FA signing Saffold. So it's not as though there wasn't a guy on the board they could draft and try to develop as a starter.

Terrel Bernard has superior physical skills but Man! did he look "lost in space" in that game he started for Milano last season, and when he did get to the right place at the right time, I have visions of him getting trucked 5 yards on every tackle. Dodson physically has the edge over Klein, but Klein has it all upstairs over both Dodson and Bernard. Hyde calls him "Coach Klein" for a reason - he's lost a step or two physically where he never was "all that", but he's great at diagnosing the play and figuring out where everyone ought to be. I'm pretty sure they typically keep 6 LB on the 53 man roster. Milano, Bernard, Dodson, Matakevich, Spector is 5. Spector, unless he's improved markedly, is a candidate for PS as he played limited ST snaps early in the season and was inactive every game from week 11 on. So they probably have room on the roster for a draft pick AND Klein or another savvy vet FA. I see value in adding Klein as a vet in the room teaching the young guys how to prepare. In actual playing time, it's a very young room short of Milano. It would be good to avoid a situation like we had in the QB room in 2018 where it was Allen and Peterdude - no vet who could help interpret film and teach the guys how it's done.

Well, being Beane, he did use qualifiers, and sure, I would expect another addition. But I don't think it's a sure bet that they're going to go LB in the 1st or 2nd round** https://www.buffalobills.com/video/brandon-beane-want-to-be-competitive-every-single-year 3:29 in, listen for your self "Losing Tremaine and looking at that MLB position, is there more of an emphasis on looking at that position in the draft, or is it going to be more of an internal competition or bring in someone from FA?" "You know, sometimes your answer is on the roster...Tyrell, getting Dodson back on a 1 year, him, obviously we had the two draft picks last year in Bernard and Spector, they've been in our program a year, obviously they're going to be a lot more prepared for the pro game and our defensive system, it's a competition and we'll continue to look, whether that's cap casualties, free agencies, if there's a player in the draft. It'll be competition, we're not going to state now or on one month or two months this one's the starter, they're all going to get a chance to compete and best man wins." So those are the tea leaves, read them as you will. I don't think he was saying at all "we are limiting ourselves to those three" (in fact I'd be shocked if they didn't eventually sign a guy or draft another guy), but if it's a true "best man wins" situation, that doesn't usually align with a 1st or 2nd round pick - if a team uses heavy draft resources on a player, he's really expected to start. Tre Edmunds played 100% of the snaps from Game 1 his rookie year. Or, Beane could be doing the "how do you tell a GM is lying pre-draft? His lips move..." thing and so could McDermott. But it's a bit of a dangerous game, to tell players on the roster that there will be open competition, if you then bring in a guy who by draft slot or salary is obviously heavily favored to take the job. Then, of course, there was the CF where the Bills had "QB competition" in camp 2018, resulting in AJ McCarron being traded, Peterman given the job, no vet on the roster, and Allen starting halfway through Game 1 after being denied starter reps in preseason practice and games. That was ugly.

So, then, what's your explanation of why the Bills drafted Terrel Bernard? We have 4 linebackers not named Milano on the roster. Matakevich is 30 and has started no games for the Bills, played less than 100 snaps, I Get It, he's there for ST. Dodson is just turning 25, he's said he feels he can start in this league (I dunno if I agree). Matakevich was a 7th round pick of Pittsburgh, Dodson undrafted - prime territory for picking up ST guys. Bernard was drafted in the 3rd round. That is NOT a round where a team should be drafting a guy they don't feel can start. If it's just "coach speak" to let him compete for the starting MLB gig, why was he drafted in the 3rd?

You mean you don't believe Beane that the answer at MLB is on the roster, or McDermott's speech about how Tyrell, Terrel, and Baylon deserve a chance to compete for the starting MLB role? It's really hard to understand why the Bills drafted Bernard in Round 3 if they didn't believe he could start in some role

Apparently the entire NFL is the Oprah Winfrey of 1 year contracts right now

Nice add to the convo. I don't pretend to be up on the consensus chatter, but I looked them up. NFL draft profiles, anyway, had a 1 grade on Jefferson, 1-2 on Aiyuk and Reagor, and a 2 grade on Higgins. They mention Jefferson as being an "inside/outside possession receiver" which I don't think translates to "only a slot" - the thought was he could be used as a vertical threat or a slot, but maybe not a full route tree? I think a big driver for the Diggs trade was getting a polished, already-NFL level WR who could help level-up their raw QB vs. at the end of the 1st round, a guy who might need some time to develop. In Allen's 3rd year, the clock was ticking on making up their mind as to whether he was The Man and worth extending to a big contract. Yeah, I was really ticked off by Beane's "don't want to suck badly enough to draft Ja'Marr Chase". We were drafting at #9 in 2019, and while apparently it wasn't a great year for 1st year WR talent, we could have chosen a WR in the 2nd who could have really helped us. DK Metcalf went at the bottom of the 2nd and AJ Brown midway. GTFO Beane with this "suck badly enough for Chase" or do-nothing false choice.

Since I know nothing about the kid, I looked up his draft profile https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-downs/3200444f-5768-6145-dd60-3fbae406310a I kind of did 😬 when I got to "undersized slot with an oversized will". I'd kind of like to see us have a couple normal-size WR. I do think Harty is on the team now and getting paid pretty well, because the Bills think he can succeed in the slot at least part-time. But you could be right - it seems I've heard other people mention him

Um, yeah. But they don’t fill the position need at DT DT market is really hot this off season

With respect, I think they’re a bit separate issues. It’s the difference between Davis being on the field 65-75% of the snaps as a WR vs another 10-20% to block on screens and run plays True Dat. But they would likely be on the field 60-ish % of the snaps. Davis and/or Sherfield will be used as blockers, which is why it’s important Sherfirld showed he can really catch last year. But he’s a very good downfield blocker Kumerow’s value was minimized because his abilities as a receiver were minimal, so he telegraphed the play I’ve probably been unclear. Davis was on the field primarily as WR2. But he got such a high % of the snaps vs other receivers, because he was usually on the field for 4, 3, and 2 WR sets due to his blocking ability in run plays Really shouldn’t have to be a choice, but Dorsey might have to stop living in (1,1) personnel. Gilliam is a legit route runner and receiver for a FB and Morris is a legit route runner and receiver as a TE (his blocking is improving). So Dorsey has options, where putting a (2,1) or (2,2) set need not telegraph run Yep That may be a legit way of looking at it, but we still IMHO need an upgrade at receiver. It may be a good reason to draft a rookie WR and not a high price vet who may sulk if his snap and target count aren’t high enough

Davis gets as many snaps as he does because he was the best blocker of the WR and it isn't close. He was the WR who stayed on the field in (2,1) sets (2 RB, 1 TE) and blocked downfield, in situations where KC might run a (2,2) set and bring in Grey as their 2nd TE. That aside, I was saying during the season that Knox needed more targets. He finished the season with the best catch % on the team. He was often assigned to chip and then release into short routes though.

I actually think the disconnect may be a bit different. People go further than saying he's not a #1B, and say he's not a #2 because he's too inconsistent and doesn't help the Bills move the chains reliably. That opens the question, though, what is Davis being asked to do? I think there are two types of #2 WR, (the #2 being the guy with the 2nd most targets): for want of a better term, I'll call them "move the chains" guys, and "vertical stretch/deep outlet" guys. In 2020, the Bills #2 WR was undoubtedly Cole Beasley. He was #2 in targets, yards, and ....1st downs with 53 In 2021, Beasley was still the #2 WR in targets and receptions, but his yards and 1st downs took a nosedive to 34. Cole was absolutely a "move the chains" type #2. People think Dorsey's offense = Daboll's, but Cover1 has made the point that it's the same terminology, but many of the details differed. Last season, Gabe Davis was not asked to be a "move the chains" type #2 very often. He was asked to be a vertical stretch or deep outlet guy, bringing in throws with overall lower completion probability. IMHO the real problem for the Bills at WR last year was that we lacked a move-the-chains Beasley type guy. Some combination of Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, and Knox were supposed to be That Guy, but it didn't work out for different reasons. So I'm not sure we need to replace Davis, so much as we need to replace Beasley, and I'm not sure Shakir is that guy - some people don't think he has the quickness to be a slot, and last season I don't think he understood zone coverage enough.

News flash: People do not always react proportionally and with common sense, especially when they have been consuming alcohol combined with other drugs.

Just a minor note that I think this is ESPN's brainchild, not PFR. Other than that, you make some good points with which I overall agree.

For anyone interested, here's some background explanation on these numbers. It's basically a bit of a Frankenmetric, based upon someone observing each route and deciding if the receiver is open or not 0.2 seconds before the QB throws, and so forth so on for all 3 metrics (what was the hypothetical catch probability given some hypothetical WR and then + or - on that - if it was a gimmee 99% catch probability catch and the WR muffs it, big down-score; if it was a low probability circus catch, big up score). https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores I'm a simple Beck, and I like simple stats that anyone can measure, and that don't require vector analysis of position, direction, and velocity of all 22 defenders or whatever they do. I can't put ESPN's total QBR frankenstat out of my mind. But, if you like that sort of thing, There Ya Go. For those who love it, or even just want to understand it, here are the numbers Walder refers to: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ Diggs ratings: 83 open, 81 catch, 43 YAC / overall 83 (4th in the league behind AJ Brown, Jefferson, and Lockett Knox ratings: 57 open, 48 catch, 34 YAC / overall 47 (73) I. McKenzie: 62 open, 36 catch, 33 YAC / overall 43 (86) Davis ratings: 45 open, 37 catch, 42 YAC / overall 37 (100) (FTR, new WR Trent Sherfield scores 50/40/36//overall 43 (86). Harty not enough playing time to score.) Bills last season (Diggs, Knox, Davis): total 167 [Diggs Knox McKenzie would total 173, but Davis targeted much more] Compare to Chiefs: Travis Kelce ratings: 78 open, 65 catch, 50 YAC / overall 75 (10) Juju Smith-Schuster: 49 open, 60 catch, 52 YAC / overall 56 (46) Marquez Valdez-Scan: 26 open, 46 catch, 29 YAC/ overall 23 (110) Chiefs last season (Kelce, SS, MVS): total 154 Bengals, total 217 Eagles, total 224 Dolphins, total 179 Giants, total 185 Anyway, I'm not sure this passes the "eye test" once you're past about the top 10 guys - do we really believe George Pickens is a better WR than Jamaar Chase, Davante Adams, and Deandre Hopkins? Or that Isaiah Hodgins is a better WR than Adams, Hopkins, or Amon-Ra St Brown? Which is how this lines 'em up. Enjoy, and believe it or don't.

Now wait a minute, wasn't that you over in another thread predicting that the Bills go defense early in the draft per usual? Make up your mind, Either Or, Not Both

To be fair to him, Settle injured a calf muscle (I believe it was) in Week 1, didn't play week 2, Q for week 3, but came back and saw an unusually high number of snaps the next couple of weeks because Oliver and Phillips were both out. Settle is primarily a 1TDT and normally rotates with DaQuan Jones. Round 1 AND 2? I don't think so. Not with having just signed Harty to the 2nd biggest FA contract, signing Sherfield who I believe is the #5 or 6/Kumerow replacement, and having Diggs Davis and Shakir already on the roster. Where would two guys fit?