Beck Water

With respect, I think they’re a bit separate issues. It’s the difference between Davis being on the field 65-75% of the snaps as a WR vs another 10-20% to block on screens and run plays True Dat. But they would likely be on the field 60-ish % of the snaps. Davis and/or Sherfield will be used as blockers, which is why it’s important Sherfirld showed he can really catch last year. But he’s a very good downfield blocker Kumerow’s value was minimized because his abilities as a receiver were minimal, so he telegraphed the play I’ve probably been unclear. Davis was on the field primarily as WR2. But he got such a high % of the snaps vs other receivers, because he was usually on the field for 4, 3, and 2 WR sets due to his blocking ability in run plays Really shouldn’t have to be a choice, but Dorsey might have to stop living in (1,1) personnel. Gilliam is a legit route runner and receiver for a FB and Morris is a legit route runner and receiver as a TE (his blocking is improving). So Dorsey has options, where putting a (2,1) or (2,2) set need not telegraph run Yep That may be a legit way of looking at it, but we still IMHO need an upgrade at receiver. It may be a good reason to draft a rookie WR and not a high price vet who may sulk if his snap and target count aren’t high enough

Davis gets as many snaps as he does because he was the best blocker of the WR and it isn't close. He was the WR who stayed on the field in (2,1) sets (2 RB, 1 TE) and blocked downfield, in situations where KC might run a (2,2) set and bring in Grey as their 2nd TE. That aside, I was saying during the season that Knox needed more targets. He finished the season with the best catch % on the team. He was often assigned to chip and then release into short routes though.

I actually think the disconnect may be a bit different. People go further than saying he's not a #1B, and say he's not a #2 because he's too inconsistent and doesn't help the Bills move the chains reliably. That opens the question, though, what is Davis being asked to do? I think there are two types of #2 WR, (the #2 being the guy with the 2nd most targets): for want of a better term, I'll call them "move the chains" guys, and "vertical stretch/deep outlet" guys. In 2020, the Bills #2 WR was undoubtedly Cole Beasley. He was #2 in targets, yards, and ....1st downs with 53 In 2021, Beasley was still the #2 WR in targets and receptions, but his yards and 1st downs took a nosedive to 34. Cole was absolutely a "move the chains" type #2. People think Dorsey's offense = Daboll's, but Cover1 has made the point that it's the same terminology, but many of the details differed. Last season, Gabe Davis was not asked to be a "move the chains" type #2 very often. He was asked to be a vertical stretch or deep outlet guy, bringing in throws with overall lower completion probability. IMHO the real problem for the Bills at WR last year was that we lacked a move-the-chains Beasley type guy. Some combination of Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, and Knox were supposed to be That Guy, but it didn't work out for different reasons. So I'm not sure we need to replace Davis, so much as we need to replace Beasley, and I'm not sure Shakir is that guy - some people don't think he has the quickness to be a slot, and last season I don't think he understood zone coverage enough.

News flash: People do not always react proportionally and with common sense, especially when they have been consuming alcohol combined with other drugs.

Just a minor note that I think this is ESPN's brainchild, not PFR. Other than that, you make some good points with which I overall agree.

For anyone interested, here's some background explanation on these numbers. It's basically a bit of a Frankenmetric, based upon someone observing each route and deciding if the receiver is open or not 0.2 seconds before the QB throws, and so forth so on for all 3 metrics (what was the hypothetical catch probability given some hypothetical WR and then + or - on that - if it was a gimmee 99% catch probability catch and the WR muffs it, big down-score; if it was a low probability circus catch, big up score). https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores I'm a simple Beck, and I like simple stats that anyone can measure, and that don't require vector analysis of position, direction, and velocity of all 22 defenders or whatever they do. I can't put ESPN's total QBR frankenstat out of my mind. But, if you like that sort of thing, There Ya Go. For those who love it, or even just want to understand it, here are the numbers Walder refers to: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ Diggs ratings: 83 open, 81 catch, 43 YAC / overall 83 (4th in the league behind AJ Brown, Jefferson, and Lockett Knox ratings: 57 open, 48 catch, 34 YAC / overall 47 (73) I. McKenzie: 62 open, 36 catch, 33 YAC / overall 43 (86) Davis ratings: 45 open, 37 catch, 42 YAC / overall 37 (100) (FTR, new WR Trent Sherfield scores 50/40/36//overall 43 (86). Harty not enough playing time to score.) Bills last season (Diggs, Knox, Davis): total 167 [Diggs Knox McKenzie would total 173, but Davis targeted much more] Compare to Chiefs: Travis Kelce ratings: 78 open, 65 catch, 50 YAC / overall 75 (10) Juju Smith-Schuster: 49 open, 60 catch, 52 YAC / overall 56 (46) Marquez Valdez-Scan: 26 open, 46 catch, 29 YAC/ overall 23 (110) Chiefs last season (Kelce, SS, MVS): total 154 Bengals, total 217 Eagles, total 224 Dolphins, total 179 Giants, total 185 Anyway, I'm not sure this passes the "eye test" once you're past about the top 10 guys - do we really believe George Pickens is a better WR than Jamaar Chase, Davante Adams, and Deandre Hopkins? Or that Isaiah Hodgins is a better WR than Adams, Hopkins, or Amon-Ra St Brown? Which is how this lines 'em up. Enjoy, and believe it or don't.

Now wait a minute, wasn't that you over in another thread predicting that the Bills go defense early in the draft per usual? Make up your mind, Either Or, Not Both

To be fair to him, Settle injured a calf muscle (I believe it was) in Week 1, didn't play week 2, Q for week 3, but came back and saw an unusually high number of snaps the next couple of weeks because Oliver and Phillips were both out. Settle is primarily a 1TDT and normally rotates with DaQuan Jones. Round 1 AND 2? I don't think so. Not with having just signed Harty to the 2nd biggest FA contract, signing Sherfield who I believe is the #5 or 6/Kumerow replacement, and having Diggs Davis and Shakir already on the roster. Where would two guys fit?

Well, Jeebus, just pay someone to keep your car gassed up for you then, Hawkman! And double for you, Diggs!

He can be sound in run defense. He's perfectly capable of it. It's a choice with him, like Allen passing up the short chain-mover for the lower percentage deep bomb. In his first go-around with Buffalo, he tended to sacrifice run gap integrity in favor of getting a jump in pass D. Last year he was mostly better, though I saw Edmunds chewing his ass a few times. That would be a good question - with Edmunds gone, who will keep him on task?

Good question. We carried 9 DLmen last season before Von Miller was hurt (I'm pretty sure), 5 DE and 4 DT. So maybe this season we would carry 4 DE and 5 DT if we draft one? I expect to see Beane negotiate an extension of DaQuan Jones after the draft, and he's talked about being unable to re-sign Edmunds due to needing money to re-signing Ed Oliver and Gabe Davis. Don't know what we'll see there.

I hope that's an "up to" $3M

I'm not "in the know", couldja 'Spill the Tea'?

I'm up-front I don't follow college football, but look at who Zierlein lists as Sanders comparable: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/drew-sanders/32005341-4e29-0589-5c62-ee6a75833b2f Here's Zierlein on Jack Campbell https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jack-campbell/32004341-4d36-4731-433d-b35acfc680bc What I get out of that is, Sanders has shown more ability to rush the passer through the gaps AND as an edge rusher, can play sideline-to-sideline, but may need development in coverage and in run defense and tackling; Campbell is the better defender in zone coverage and run defense but has not shown pass rush chops? Not that Zierlein is definitive, but often when I watch a player in the pros for a couple years and then go back and read his "strengths" and "weaknesses" I find myself nodding.

I guess my thinking (and I could be off base here) is that AZ can maximize his trade value most easily by trading him to a team that has the cap space to absorb his current contract and negotiate (or not) at their leisure, rather than as a precursor to being able to register the trade. As you allude, that latter position effectively gives Hopkins strong influence as to whether the deal takes place and possibly even an effective veto, despite voiding his no-trade.

So catch me up here: is Sanders an MLB or more of a 3-4 OLB pass rusher/EDGE? And don't we believe McDermott when he sits in front of the media and tells us how Tyrel, Terrel, and Baylon all play the Mike and it's a good thing for us to have them in an open competition to start at MLB because they deserve a shot, it's a lot but there's a first time for everyone? 😏 https://www.buffalobills.com/video/sean-mcdermott-discusses-bills-plans-for-open-competition-to-replace-tremaine-ed

LOL. I will survive. Seriously - we all have to remember that pre-draft and pre-season predictions are all based on the idea that a team's past performance predicts future actions. The Bills have gone defense with 2 of their top 3 picks 3 of the 5 years Beane has been here. They've used a first round pick on defense 4 of those 5 years, a 2nd round pick on defense 2 of the 4 years we've had one, and a 3rd round pick on defense 2 out of 5 years. Then, add in at this point in FA we appear to have more holes on D - MLB, DT, and DE if Miller isn't back to start the season - and the logic of pundit drafts makes sense. Now I may write impassioned posts about how it's time and past time to invest a quality pick in the WR position, but at the end of the day, It Is What It Is.

When you have a coach nicknamed "Riverboat Ron" for his aggressive playcalling speak about needing to rein McD in, That's Saying Something.

I mean, it is what it is. A bunch of these twitter guys love to court notoriety by throwing stuff at the wall and nodding knowingly when something sticks. And yes, if he's right, I'll be happy to show my receipts. But the more we hear, the less I think something will happen with the Bills. Beane likes to work like an Orca whale, he glides below the surface ripple-free and you hear nothing until BAM there it is. And the Bills make it clear to other GMs and agents that's a condition. Even the NFL insiders like Schefter and Rapaport say that the Bills are one of the hardest teams to get info on. That could be. My guess would be to some team with a lot of cap space to burn and no clear #1 receiver, where DHop can go and be The Man like he was with Watson. Chicago, Detroit, or the Panthers would be my 3 guesses, worth whatcha pay for 'em. I know who Tim Graham is, and I agree his word means more than ErieCountyBulls, but to be honest I don't think he's as connected to the team any more as a bunch of others and in truth - he has, in the not too distant past, shown the tendency to seek attention on Twitter.

You know, it's a really sad day when fans seem to worry about playing keep-away with a good player vs. getting the players who best suit our specific, Buffalo Bills team needs. Of all the arguments that can be made for making a move on DHop, "keeps him off the Chiefs" is total weak sauce. Fer cripes sake, the Chiefs went to last year's Superbowl with Kelce as their top receiver, Tiktok Boy as #2, and MVS/Hardman. In the game itself, Hardman DNP and MVS went down, and Mahomes rolled his shoulders and threw to Jerick McKinnon and Justin Watson (2 for 2, both 1D). Watson was a 5th round never-did-much from TB signed as a FA. McKinnon was a 30 yr old journeyman on his 3rd team. We have no evidence KC even particularly wants Hopkins, and if they do and don't acquire him, the Magic 8 Ball says "don't worry, we'll find someone"

I think Wes Welker would want to be counted as a top receiver - he was top 10 in the league for yards for a stretch of years, #2 at one point which is damned impressive from the slot. Brandon Cooks perhaps. And take the "maybe" off Edelman. As for Gronk, this is a drum I've been beating when some folks have made the argument that the Chiefs didn't have a #1 WR let alone a #1B. Leaving aside one's opinion of TikTok Boy (I think he's a solid 2 if not a 1B, my opinion) - Mahomes has Kelce. A top receiving TE who can run routes inside and out, counts. Gronkowski was a pioneer at that. For 5 of Brady's superbowl appearances (3 of his wins) he did indeed have Gronkowski, who was a top-10 receiver in YPG for 2 of those years and top-15 2 more. The thing is, NE offense with Brady was built on being a well-oiled machine fed by Tommy. I don't want to take away from the guys we've mentioned, who were great route runners with strong hands. But the scheme helped a lot.

I want to hear from the guy who spoke to Josh Allen's cousin at Walmart

I couldn't believe what you wrote about Kelce. OMG now I'm even more steamed about that guy, top-10 receiver year after year AND he costs them so little. 13th,9th,3th,15th,11th in receiving Y/G since Mahomes took over and damned near impossible to cover. He must be one of the best values on the planet, even though he is the #2 paid TE in AAV (behind Kittle) Yeah, that's my beef - Beane hasn't taken a shot at WR on Day 1 or 2 since he took over as GM, and it's one of the highest paid, highest value positions in the NFL, most worth drafting high in terms of ROI if he works out. The Bills need to take more shots! People critique Gabe Davis, but the Bills have gotten great value from him for a 4th. Sometimes guys are drafted higher because (wait for it) they're seen as more talented. Likewise people beef about the Bills not giving Shakir more playing time, but honestly, the Bills give players the playing time they earn, rookie or not, and it's not uncommon for a 5th round player to need some time to adjust to the pro game and master his assignments in a complex playbook. Guys usually aren't drafted in the 5th because they're fully developed and ready to roll into town and rumble.

I liked him and wanted him in a Bills uni BEFORE he was a Patriot