Beck Water

So many moving pieces! 1) if there's less need for Knox to chip and block, I would hope he could become more productive in the passing game 2) BUT, the other questions are - how is Dorsey using Knox in the passing game? I can't point at metrics, but my sense is that Dorsey was not as good at scheming the TE open than Daboll, and Daboll was not as good as Reid/his offensive assistants are. - has Knox himself developed the physical aspect of his game running routes? He developed this "Rambo" rep after he trucked and ran over a couple guys early in his career, but I don't think he scores very high on the route separation metrics. The Cover1 guys pointed out a couple times that despite the Rambo reputation, he really isn't a very physical player. He doesn't try the subtle (and sometimes not subtle) push offs and arm-overs and so forth of a Kelce. He's developed in the last couple years but has he developed enough? - If he's well used in the scheme and physical/polished enough in his route running to get open, WILL ALLEN TARGET HIM? I need to take off my shoes to count the number of times last season I saw Knox nicely open underneath while Allen chose a much riskier throw - but Knox would have either gained solid yardage making it 2nd or 3rd and short, or even gained the 1D. Great questions, but too many unknowns to answer

I don't disagree that Davis needs to get better. Josh stated after the game that he was trying to "dirt" the ball to throw it away. Why would he say that if it were a "normal" low throw? We will have to agree to disagree on your interpretation of what happened on that play.

We'll have to agree to disagree there. I think Beasley was being held before the ball got there, and should have played the ball differently - extended his hands for the catch instead of trying to body-catch it, possibly taken a step towards the throw - both of which might have made the holding more obvious to the refs. Josh was forcing it a bit, but not outrageous like some of his other INTs. But, IMHO, the majority of Josh's INTs were far more on Josh than on the WR, poor decisions or poor throws. And I don't say this because I'm historically easy on WR and hard on Josh - to the contrary.

I dunno. Tampa Bay won the division at 8-9. The Falcons were 7-10 and lost ~4 games by 3 points or less and one by 4 points, including a game against NO they lost by 1 point. There's the axiom, get to the playoffs and anything can happen. But you know, Ty Dunne has to collect clicks somehow.

It makes perfect sense for Jim to feel that way. He wants Josh to have what he had, in Thurman Thomas. I'm not sure it makes perfect sense for the Bills to go after a star running back at this point. They just used a high draft pick (2nd) on a good pass catching RB who gained 5.7 Y/A and converted 25 1D on 89 touches last season, plus another 5 1D and 8.6 Y/R in the passing game. Kid only saw 269 snaps; if he can handle a larger workload, he could contribute very nicely. The thing is, Jim and Thurman also had Howard Ballard, Kent Hull, Jim Ritcher, and Will Wolford on OL.

Having watched a bunch of those throws, I disagree. One INT, in the Jets game, Josh threw to a spot where Davis wasn't. Josh took responsibility, and clearly one of them was wrong about where Davis should be, but I don't think we can know who it was. Steelers game - DB was between Davis and the ball, in perfect position to jump it - could argue that Josh expected Davis to run his route differently, one of them wrong The other 4, were balls that should not have been thrown. GB game - Josh dirted the ball yards short of Davis on one, on the other made an off-target throw back to the middle of the field, intercepted miles before it got to Davis. Two bad throws that shouldn't havebeen made. Vikings game - Bad throw way short of Davis with defender between Davis and the ball. Defender jumped the route. NE game - dangerous throw intercepted by McCourty way short of Davis, should not have been thrown, nothing Davis could have done There are two reasons why INTs are occuring at an anomalous rate. One is that the WR is making mistakes or not being sure-handed with the ball, like the ball that bounced off Beasley's chest into a defender's hands in the MIA playoff game. The others are that the QB is making bad decisions or bad throws, or that the team's self-scouting on what plays they call in different situations is poor, and defenders anomalously know what's coming.

While there is uncertainty as to whether Damar will play (and perhaps as to whether White will resume his old form) I would think they would try to bring in a couple more players. I'm thinking 5-7th round. It's not a tough prediction since the Bills have drafted 1 or more DB 5th-7th rounds every year Beane has been GM. Most have them have stuck on the team. DBs drafted in these rounds include (2018) 5th - Siran Neal (plus Taron Johnson in the 4th) (2019) 6th - Jaquan Johnson (2020) 7th- Dane Jackson (2021) 6th - Damar Hamlin, Rachad Wildgoose (2022) 6th - Christian Benford Rachad Wildgoose is the only one who didn't stick on the Bills, and he's started games for the Jets (2021) and for the Commanders (2022) and is still on their roster. Jaquan Johnson is the worst of them, and he's played 60 games for us in the last 4 years, with a starting role on ST. But, I think people who thought we might draft a safety early may be able to stand down.

No need to cut Jaquan Johnson. As you noted, it was his 4th season. He was a FA, and we moved on.

I think that’s too rich for the Bills blood.

No anecdote needed. It’s factually documented by pro-football-reference https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_advanced.htm 6 while targeting Davis, 3 targeting Knox, 2 targeting McKenzie But, is that on Davis, or on Allen for forcing the ball in there? Or somewhat on Dorsey for not realizing that play ha been ing nosed by D’s and he needed to put it in the back of the playbook? I’m going with most were more on some combination of Allen and Dorsey.

I guess “not a lot of hoes” is where we’ll have to agree to disagree. We went into last season, IMO, not having done enough on the OL. Basically, added Rodger Saffold coming off a shoulder injury and that’s it. We also went into the season on hope that Gabe Davis and McKenzie would work out as starters and that Crowder would stay healthy. I see those as holes, and think they could productively have added a G or a WR to compete vs. reaching on a LB. I can’t disagree with your assessment that he looked like a reach at the time and needs to be shown to be different.

Way too many ‘ifs’ there. Agree with your first assessment, “clickbait from Florio”

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jack-campbell/32004341-4d36-4731-433d-b35acfc680bc I don’t know; you be the judge

And that’s a fair assessment

you know, I can 100% be on board with someone who disagrees, but if you don't buy in to Gunner and Shaw's Mike Williams comparison - give it its propers that theyr'e trying to craft a comparison, it's not just "writing words". But that kind of gets to my point about, "what are the Bills ASKING Davis to do?" If they're asking him to be their chain mover....he's failing If they're asking him to be their lower percentage "deep guy", then maybe he's doing what's asked and the real problem is the lack of a reliable "chain mover", which the Bills weren't asking Davis to be

Thanks! So what I saw from Milano in the years where he got injured, was that even if he was out of position he would stick out an arm where he might injure his pec or scurry to get into position to make a hit where he might pull a hammy What I think I've seen the last 2 years is that he's worked on his shoestring tackles, where if he's out of position and can't make a solid hit, he'll just get the guy by the feet and hang on. (Rapp who we recently signed seems to do the same thing) And, it seems to have worked because (knock wood) he's missed fewer games thelast 2 seasons Now, what I saw a lot last 2 seasons is Milano would slow a guy up and Edmunds would get there (because Milano had slowed the guy) and seal the deal. Not sure how that dynamic will work without Edmunds - guess we'll find out.

Yeah, I started a thread with info on that 2017 defense because I thought it might add some insight in how the Bills might try to adjust without their Primo MLB

I believe I'm the one who crafted that argument, the argument being that the Bills actually weren't asking Davis to be a "move the chains" receiver running "move the chains" routes last year, and the problem was we didn't get enough chain-moving from the receivers who WERE running those routes (Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, Knox). So maybe you already know my answer, but, I am concerned that Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield are NOT enough to address that issue - Harty because he's been injured so much and is so small; Shakir because he couldn't seem to figure out how to dissect zone coverage last season: and Sherfield because the only time he's been productive is in Miami, with defenses scared to death of Waddle and Hill. I do think we have answers on the roster - the TE on many teams is the go-to "move the chains" man and Knox now seems able to catch; Cook and Hines could be very productive as well in the short passing game - but Dorsey and Josh have to figure out how to use them effectively. So I see a good sized "3 level WR" who can play outside and at the intermediate level, as the bigger need.

@Xwnyer, that's by definition not a drop. You may be right that a good number of the targets he doesn't catch were underthrows - that would fit with what Carson Palmer said happened to him when he tried to throw with a partially torn UCL. But they wouldn't be "scored" as drops, because the definition of a drop is a ball that a receiver can catch with "ordinary" effort - meaning it arrives within a rectangle defined a little differently by different organizations who score them (the NFL does not), but it's something like from just over the head (arms still bent) to mid-thigh and side to side just outside the shoulders. That's the reason why many people complain that the "drops" statistic doesn't reflect many balls they see as "an NFL WR should have had that" catchable balls, a ball the receiver could catch by dropping to his knees, or jumping, or extending his arms fully to the side.

Just to be clear, I'm not calling him a bust, that would be unfair based on 1 start. He was playing a lot on teams last year. But in McDermott's Bills defense, if you look up the snap counts from any game 2019-on, Milano, Edmunds, Johnson, Poyer, Hyde, White, and Jackson would play every snap (barring injury, avert!). Now it doesn't have to be that way, but as long as it is, I'm saying it's a poor use of a third round pick to draft a backup at a position where you don't typically rotate. He's all those things. He's a smart football player too, by all accounts. The only critique I have is that part of his get-up-and-go has got-up-and-went with age.

Certainly if they drafted Bernard intending him to just sit on the bench and back up Milano, it seems like a wasted pick If they intended him to back up Edmunds, he seems like the wrong body type, too small, arms too short. He can theoretically pack some muscle onto his frame as Milano did but he can't change his height or his arm length. I wonder if they thought about trading Milano and keeping Edmunds, and that's why they drafted Bernard?

I do understand what you're saying. But at the same time, IMHO Beane and McDermott have gone, let's call it, unnecessarily far into the weeds of "demotivating and demoralizing" the LB on the roster if there's not a genuine competition, and drafting a 1st or 2nd round pick, whom everyone knows will be given a chance to start sooner or later, isn't too genuine. I don't recall that. It makes sense, in that he's very Milano-like in physique and intangibles. However, I stand by my assessment that if he was, Milano's health and his snap usage means it's a pretty poor use of a 3rd round pick. Sort of along the lines of GB drafting Jordan Love in the 1st and letting him sit on the bench for 3 seasons. I would love to see the source where you find him playing DE for the Hokies. He played OLB (and also inside at times). He did not play DE or edge AFAIK, nor was he a pass-rushing OLB.

Huh?

I know you're just the messenger, but Boy Graziano's message is weird. Why would the Jets and Packers be in "no hurry" to get their deal done? You would think the Jets would want to firm up their cap space and draft picture, and ditto the Packers. I could certainly see OBJ wanting to see who the QB is FR FR before signing with a team though.

I mean this in the nicest way, as a suggestion, but if you don't know what Edmunds played in college, why not either ask, or look it up, before pontificating? He did not play DE in college. He was not projected as a pass-rushing OLB or edge in the draft. A team does not field the #2 D on points, #1 on yards, if 1/3 to 1/2 of the field is unattended. Be Better. Who are those two top 100 pick guys? (I honestly don't know)