Beck Water

I agree with you that there were better cap (and talent-building) strategies. I think it was clear that Diggs relationship with Allen was bad, and had been bad for some time - certainly by the end of the 2022 season. But usually, when guys want to win and recognize talent, they suck it up and figure out how to work together professionally. I don't know - it may have been a combination of things - declining abilities by objective metrics like GPS tracking of speed and separation; crappy relationship with the QB which didn't allow a "mind meld" that could compensate; organizational headaches - all leading to a decision to sell as high as they could and eat up the cap hit this season, while coping with a huge talent deficit at WR. I think I agree with your fundamental point, but suggest looking at it as "QB plus handful of pricey guys". Usually that's the QB, a DB, an OT, a DLman, and a receiver. Taking a peak around the league, on the Ravens we see 6 players who are nomming up >5% of the cap: Jackson, CB, FS, LT, TE, ILB, with DE Madubuike just below it at 4.31%. Chiefs: Mahomes, G, RT, TE, SS w DE Omenihu just behind them at 4.3%. Dallas: Prescott, DE Lawrence, WR, G, CB with Michael Gallup (5.4% of the cap) on the books as a post-June 1 cut and T just behind at 4.3%. Rams: Stafford, Cooper Kupp, DT Aaron Donald coming off the books post June 1, RT and G with a 2nd G just under at 4.96%. So the Bills, starting the off-season with Allen, Diggs (was about 10%, now 12% dead), Tre White (6.4%), and Von Miller over 5% then with Matt Milano 4.87% and Dion Dawkins 4.5%, didn't have an unusual cap allocation. The problem really wasn't the cap allocation, it was ROI from 3 of the 6 players at the top of the allocation. Diggs at the end of 2023 and in the 2022 and 2023 playoffs, did not provide good ROI. Tre, missing 2 of the last 3 seasons due to injury, ditto. Von Miller, missing effectively half of 2 seasons and playing at a "JAG" level the rest of last season, ditto ditto. Tre' is still young enough by CB standards to have been able to contribute barring repeat injury. Diggs, it wasn't unreasonable to expect good ROI through at least this next season - he signed a 4 year extension at age 28, Miller was the big swing-and-miss by Beane. When you look at the top-paid Edge players, Miller's age at signing sticks out - at least 3 years older than the next closest guy. Beane took a risk offering him that long of a contract with that much guaranteed, and it didn't pay off. Edit: to point out that Miller is also the only FA signing in the Bills top-cap collection. Everyone else was either developed here, or acquired by trade on a moderate contract (Diggs) and extended based on performance on the Bills team.

This is true. On the other hand, some of the 1000+ yd receivers the Bills have had on the roster were arguably worse than what we have now. For example, I listed the Bills 2018 receiving corps in another post. The 1000+ receiver we had, was Kelvin Benjamin. Would you like to make an argument that the 2018 WR corps was (at least on paper) better than what we have now? Yeah, he had a 1000+ yds as a rookie and >900 the next year he played (3rd league year), but his 2017 production was rather puny. Just out of curiousity, not disbelieving you but who was that 1000+ yd in the NFL WR we started 2014 with? Or started 2017 with, for that matter?

@oldmanfan what you say may very well be true - it may also be true of the organization overall. We hear various references from guys who have shown themselves to have accurate inside info or connections to people who do, to Diggs pulling various 'stunts' that 'hurt the team' or saying that Diggs and McDermott don't get along or "Diggs is definitely a problem". I thought it was notable that Diggs "Goodbye" instagram post got very few responses from Bills players - I think Dawkins "until next time" which included a pic of him side-eye'ing Diggs, was the only one. Then there was Allen's carefully crafted response in his OTA presser referring to Diggs as "his brother" followed by a Bills Social Media tiktok of the guys arriving for OTAs featuring the unseen cameraman calling Shakir "Brother" to which Shakir gets in his face and says "Don't Call Me That Again" then Dion turns back from the door and goes after the cameraman for saying "Goodbye, Brother". I took that as distancing themselves emphatically from the kind of "brotherhood" Diggs and Josh had at the end. In contrast, there are people with some connections like Joe Buscaglia who say Diggs is a "misunderstood dude", and that he's very emotionally intelligent and thoughtful and self-aware (how that computes along with Diggs in-game and post-game actions, I don't know) The main point is, trading Diggs was NOT a move that had to be made to release us from "cap trouble" The secondary point is - there are rumors about friction in locker rooms all the time and guys not getting along, but players don't usually get slung out the door for it at the expense of cap space and a deep performance hit to the WR room, unless they break team rules or otherwise behave unprofessionally (slacking on the field). Superficially in terms of numbers, the sensible roster building course would be to draft a guy they could bring on at whatever rate he needs while Diggs is still here for a year, then part ways. So I would tend to believe there may have been actual performance reasons which might, added to "bad locker room chemistry", lead to a premature parting of the ways. For example, the Bills have cold hard facts about Diggs performance in practice and games from GPS tracking. They might know his performance in the 2nd half was hampered by a nagging injury. Perhaps their medical staff recommended a procedure like a back or oblique muscle repair, which Diggs got additional opinions about and decided against, whereupon the Bills decided to swallow their cap hit medicine this year and move on because they believed the juice he brought wasn't gonna be worth the squeeze, by November.

mods, please move to OTW (or annihilate) if considered more appropriate For those who missed it, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker was invited to give the commencement address at Catholic Benedictine College in Atchinson, KS. Here's the transcript: https://www.ncregister.com/news/harrison-butker-speech-at-benedictine He's entitled to his views, although he seems to have crafted it on the "if I haven't offended you yet, just wait a minute" principle. https://apnews.com/article/kansas-city-chiefs-harrison-butker-e00f6ee45955c99ef1e809ec447239e0 The NFL has now disavowed his comments https://wapo.st/4dIi9MK (gift article, should work) "The NFL said Thursday that it disagrees with the views expressed by Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker during a commencement address last weekend, calling itself “steadfast” in its commitment to inclusion." “Harrison Butker gave a speech in his personal capacity,” Jonathan Beane, the NFL’s chief diversity and inclusion officer, said in a written statement provided to The Washington Post and other media outlets. “His views are not those of the NFL as an organization. The NFL is steadfast in our commitment to inclusion, which only makes our league stronger.” Personally, when you're addressing an audience of young women who just worked hard to earn a degree, I think the minimum the commencement speaker could do is to respect that effort. "Some of you may go on to lead successful careers in the world, but I would venture to guess that the majority of you are most excited about your marriage and the children you will bring into this world" - how disparaging of their efforts and hard work! All I can say is I hope his kicks next season follow his views, and go Wide Right.

Well put. @HappyDays, where did you find the stats about man vs zone coverage %? I don't disbelieve it at all - in fact I thought I heard it elsewhere, Cover1 maybe. And it was a comment I found myself making while watching games, 'they can't get open vs. man'. But I'd love to know how it compares to 2022 and 2021. In 2020 and 2021, I would believe the Bills may have faced one of the lower percentages of man coverage, because we had a lot of guys who could get open against man - in addition to Diggs, we had Brown, Sanders, Beasley, McKenzie I do think we usually had someone open, but it was often a check-down guy who might end up short of the sticks, and Josh still has his allergy to taking the checkdown quickly when that option can lead to good YAC. I also do think that clever scheming could have gotten WR open vs man more often. Dorsey seemed to like plays which combined both zone- and man-beater elements, which meant there might be only 1 or 2 options against man. I think that's why we did some better under Brady, and to me, "what will Brady's offense look like?" is one of the key unanswered questions for the upcoming season. But even with great scheme, it still helps to have someone stretching the field vertically.

Couple of things here just correcting misunderstanding. First, the NFL stats define a deep throw as traveling more than 20 yds past the LOS. So when I, at least, am talking about a vertical threat or a boundary receiver stretching the field, I'm not just talking about 40 yd throws (though for a QB who starts out in shotgun and takes a deep drop, 20 yds past the LOS can become 40 air yards, so there's that). NFL NexGen Stats show that the best QB typically have CAY between 4 and 7.5 yds - so a throw which travels 15 yards past the LOS is a pretty deep throw. That's really what we're talking about - stretching the defense deeper than 5-10 yds past the LOS. Otherwise you get the same effect which makes the last 10 yds of the Red Zone more challenging for offenses to operate in - you just get more bodies piling in to a shorter space. And yes, certainly clever scheming helps get guys open (along with the refs letting pick plays and push offs slide) but only so much. Second, yes, you're correct Gabe Davis got open deep and he didn't have a great 40 time. Speed is only one factor in a WR being a successful vertical threat, and maybe not the most important overall. He has to be able to get a clean release off the line against physical coverage and quickly get past the area where contact is legal. That takes deceptive body language/footwork and strength. Then, he may have to be hand-fighting and holding off the DB all the way down the field. Davis had a strong release and great hand-fighting skills and he could break DB's ankles. Cheers!

With respect, I think you're thinking may be a bit off in several regards. I did a post before the draft where I looked at the number of WR drafted in early rounds and where the most successful WRs were selected. It's definitely not always "the top 2 or 3 WR taken turn out to be the best". So yeah, you're right, out of 7 1st round WR probably only 2 or 3 will be quality NFL players, but which 2 or 3? That's why teams take shots. And no, in terms of % of draft picks who succeed, teams don't have "as good a chance to hit" as they would on the 7th WR drafted in round 1. Statistically it's something like 25-30% success at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd round, falls to more like 20% in rd 3 and by rd 5 it's more like 10-15%.

You know, I really want to believe this. I honestly do. Benjamin was, in fact, a #1 WR in Carolina for 2 seasons, sandwiching a year on IR. And while it wasn't as good, projecting out his first 8 games he might well have finished as their #1 in 2017 with the Ghost of Cam Newton throwing to him. Kerley was actually leading SF in receptions and receiving yards in 2016 with Kaepernick throwing to him. He was suspended then cut half the 2017 season with the Jets and Josh McCowan, but certainly could have called him #3. I think it's fair to say in hindsight, he had nothing left and got suspended for PEDs because he was trying to flog his body through a season. It lasted 1 game here. You may be right. The Curtis Samuel signing was reminiscent of Beasley to me - steady guy who has produced consistently from the slot. I'm not sure who is analogous to Brown, though? The thing is, Diggs did NOT have to go to "get us out" of cap trouble. It would have cost us less cap this year, and at least allowed us to shop at Price Cutter or Aldi.

I don't think HappyDays is being entirely facetious here. I don't want to get into a p*ssing match about what constitutes "throwing downfield" (official NFL stats count it as >20 yds from the LOS) and whether vertical passing wins playoff games. I have been highly puzzled by folks who don't seem to think we need a downfield, vertical threat at WR but who also talk about forcing defenses to cover the entire field. The thing being, if there isn't enough of a downfield, vertical threat to scare the opposing DC, defenses choke down on the short and intermediate stuff. 3.4 yds per attempt moves the chains, but it requires precise and mistake-free football to perambulate the football down the field and score that way. We don't know what Coleman is in the NFL, but some of the film on him in college suggests that he struggles to get open vertically downfield, and is at his best as a "big slot". Since I like sources I'll dish: Cover1 / NFL Draft Profile / Greg Cosell on OBL pre-day 2 : post draft Samuel can get open, true, but in his best season in Carolina he had two 1000+ yd WR playing with him. In Washington, he had Terry McLaurin. It's a lot easier to eat as a slot if you've got a good boundary receiver drawing attention away from you. Samuel has never been a #1 and more than likely, that may be an unrealistic expectation. Similar comments about Shakir and Kincaid - both had good seasons last year, behind Diggs and his 107 receptions for 1183 yards and Gabe Davis with his 45 receptions for 746 yds (mostly deep, 17 y/r on average). Again, it's a different challenge for these guys to get open when they're #2-4 on the WR depth chart vs. without that #1 drawing attention

Piss isn't sterile. #FACTS I was totally gobsmacked when we traded Stefon Diggs. I expect him to be super-motivated to rehab and train his ass off this off season and lay down some good numbers for the Texans instead of visiting Paris for Fashion Week and attending Coachella during OTAs as he did in the 2023 off season. I *think* the WR is better for 2024 than it was for Allen's rookie season but when I walk through it point by point, I wind up wondering if it's wishful thinking: Kelvin Benjamin - 2014 Panthers 1st round pick with 1000+ and 900+ seasons along with two torn ACLs in his medical history and a torn meniscus the previous year. Well-paid and highly Demotivated. Zay Jones - 2017 2nd round pick who had meagre yardage and major hands issues his rookie year but we hoped a torn labrum was responsible and all better now. Jeremy Kerley - 8 year, 5 team journeyman whose best seasons were 827 and 667 yds Andre' Holmes - 8 year, 4 team mostly ST journeyman, best season 693 yards Robert Foster - fast UDFA with limited college play who needed to be cut and signed to the PS to get him to take it seriously Isaiah McKenzie - fast gadget guy who couldn't run routes at the time, claimed off waivers from Denver mid-season It really bothers me that I write the above and feel the need to second guess whether we're really better at this point.

I've already responded a couple times, but this particular post struck me because it explicitly stated what was otherwise implied. Combine measurements Cooper Kupp 6' 2" 204 lb 4.62 40-time (he plays faster) Amon-Ra St Brown 6' 0" 197 lb 4.59 40-time Stefon Diggs 6'1" 195 lb 4.46 40-time Unless you want to extoll a 0.13 or 0.16 sec difference in the Underwear Olympics, they're physically very similar players. They dominate physically not because Diggs is larger or more powerful than Kupp or St Brown, but because of how they use their bodies to juke DBs out of their jocks and break their ankles, the crispness and timing of their routes, their skill at hand-fighting and arm-overs, and their abilities to track the ball and adjust. I would VERY MUCH like the chance to do the experiment as to whether Kupp or St Brown would continue to be as productive on another team, namely OURS. It's entirely theoretical, 'cuz it's not gonna happen but my reaction would be 100% X-rated and unfit for a "family" board. Most of the top WR who have been traded or signed as FA have been similarly productive for their new teams, at least for a year or so. Where they fail to stay productive, it's typically not the new team or system that fails them, but their own bodies (ACLs for Beckham, hammies and MCLs for Hopkins etc). Father Time is undefeated.

I agree with your overall point that Beane has not given the WR position its propers. However, 2022 started the season with Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, Khalil Shakir as the developmental rookie, and Jake Kumerow as the ST guy/backup X By the end of the season, it was Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Shakir, with Kumerow and Crowder both on IR and guys getting elevated off the practice squad. Tanner Gentry was seeing meaningful snaps. Now Beane's roster handling can 100% be justly criticized - Hodgins looked more promising than the other PS guys, and Beane, short on healthy CBs, exposed him to waivers knowing his buddy Joe Schoen with the Giants was desperate for WR at that point and would likely snap up a WR he'd helped to scout and draft. So let's understand the signing of Brown and then Beasley to our PS in context, for what it was - signing some backup depth guys to be active on game day in case of injury to the starters, who remained Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and Shakir. Viewed in that light, they knew the playbook and Josh had familiarity with them, so it wasn't a Bad Thing and arguably a better thing than just elevating randoms like Dezmon Patmon or Keesean Johnson off PS. If you want to criticize Beane's handling of the WR position from 2022 on, criticize the line-up that started the season - the thought that Davis was ready for an expanded role as the #2 instead of the backup platooning with Brown and then with Sanders; the thought that McKenzie was able to step into being a full time slot.

Von Miller, as pass rusher somewhat agree. He's a good run defender though, and that's all about shared responsibility to maintain gap integrity. Could not disagree more about Milano. Feel that stating his play is about individual skills vs. choreography and teamwork, represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the complexity of a modern zone defense and the choices the LB and slot corner and DB need to make depending upon how they read the play and the routes being run. Every guy on that defense needs to understand not only what his role is on the defensive play as called, but how that role changes based on pre- and post-snap motion and route options and this especially applies to the LBs and the slot corner. Intense teamwork is necessary, especially in McDermott's defense. The defensive players aren't only reading the offensive players, they're reading each other's body language3 - there was a discussion a while back about how Hyde took the wrong angle on one play because another defensive player (think it was Dodson) looked left rather than straight or right, which indicated to Hyde that the other player was set up correctly for covering to his L, so Hyde went R. Meanwhile the RB blew by Dodson to his L. Have also been some in-depth discussions here about how a particular defensive coverage is actually executed (at the college level) and exactly how the defensive responsibilities shift in response to the routes the receivers are actually running. It's very choreographed and very intricate. I'll try to find one.

Tap the brakes is fine for sure. Keep in mind this is a guy who had 42 targets and 3 drops last season - with 15 yd/target average meaning he was the deep target. Just as with Gabe Davis, the low catch % is partly a function of throw-aways over his head and uncatchable balls. As long as his feet work and he gets downfield fast he could have a role (so could Claypool, for that matter) I could be mistaken, but I think he might have his timeline slightly fuzzy and be referring to Shakir, not remembering that the timeline went: Davis walks in FA Curtis Samuel signed Diggs traded

What is an admission? Signing MVS? Nonsense - MVS has something Coleman doesn't, independent of what he may or may not contribute next season, vertical field-stretching speed Yes, he's the Beane prototype of a low-floor, high-ceiling type high draft pick, but that doesn't mean he won't contribute. I think your list is way off. First of all, Diggs is not replaced by Samuel. Samuel would be a closer analogy to replacing Beasley, who had a skill set we've been lacking the last 2 seasons - though Samuel can line up outside more. Samuel is not a #1 WR, never has been, unreasonable to expect him to become one. Last season, Harty was the #4 WR, and Sherfield was active on game day primarily for ST. He was the Kumerow replacement and intended to sub for Davis or Diggs in case of injury. Sherfield wound up playing more offensive snaps either in run centered game plans like DAL and LAC (good blocker), because Davis was injured (MIA and 2 playoff games), or because Diggs was taking himself out. Oh, well, yeah, and because Harty apparently sucked. Sherfield will be replaced by Mack Hollins. Hollins is a stud blocker and has been a ST captain apparently like, everywhere he goes (We're looking to replace a bunch of ST regulars including Siran Neal, Matekavich, Dodson, and Sherfield - so I would give Hollins the edge) Our KR will probably be RB Ty Johnson or that tid-bit of a 6th round CB we drafted (Daequan Hardy) with Coleman as an outside shot if we don't like him at WR I would guess the WR corp at more likely: Coleman MVS/Claypool (I predict in the end, there will be only one) Shakir Samuel Hollins battle between Shorter, Shavers, "the battle of the 2nd round picks" Hamler vs Isabella, Thompson, and this year's UDFAs Johnson and Keys But That's just how I see it I think any "it's going to be tough for him to contribute initially" stuff from Beane and McDermott are just "managing expectations for the rookie" talk, not an indication that Coleman will be inactive.

I'd just like to point out an apparent contradiction. You say that Kupp and Kelce don't have any physical skill that stands out. Then you point out that they have "good physical skills to move where they have to move and to catch the ball". It seems from some of what you've written that you equate elite physical skills with measurables like size and speed. My point is that elite physical skills come in other forms. Kelce has (or had) elite physical skills - he has the fluidity and ability to cut on his routes of a receiver, and elite hands/ ball tracking perception, at the size of a TE. That means among other things, he can push off subtly and get away with it, and then of course that he's almost always open a foot over the DB's best vertical. Diggs in 2020/2021 had elite physical skills - not speed, but burst; ability to cut sharply and juke the defensive back; ball tracking skill and hands. Those are the elite physical skills I see that stand out in Kupp and in Amon-Ra St Brown and several other top receivers.

OK, so I think there are a couple of things here. The first is, I think that your idea of McDermott's view is absolutely correct. I think he 100% has the philosophy "teamwork is better than individual stars" and values generalists - a Taron Johnson who can cover the slot receivers like a DB, but who can also play the run like an undersized LB; a Poyer who can play interchangeably between free and slot safety, but also come up into the box and both cover like a slot corner/light linebacker or play the run (the way they substituted for Milano, right? play Dodson against the run but then bring Poyer up to cover and backfill safety with Rapp). So I want to introduce two contrary notions for you to chew over: 1) a guy like Milano or Taron Johnson, generalists who can play sideline to sideline and cover but is also a thumper against the run and can penetrate into the backfield, are far from "dime a dozen" - it may be actually harder to find and develop a guy like that, than it is to find a guy who has one great skill. That may mean the team winds up paying these guys, not like a top dollar star because the market doesn't value their position at top dollar - but significantly more than 'replacement cost' for longer, just because of that challenge in finding and developing them 2) when it's crunch time, in the playoffs, these generalists may fall off at specific skills leaving holes the opponent can exploit. So then you need some guys who are elite at what they do, period. I think McDermott reluctantly came around to that idea on defense, and that's why we saw the team taking some rifle shots such as paying Von Miller the Big Bucks in free agency and re-upping Tre White at a good price. Of course, we all know how that came out, with injuries. So now let's apply that to your idea that "every receiver on a well functioning passing team will do multiple things well". In principle, it's fantastic. But in practice, receivers do tend to have specialized sets of skills where they're elite, and other skills where they're good, or maybe OK. Justin Jefferson, for example, started his career with the Vikings as a downfield threat averaging 16 yds per reception. Then he supercharged himself into a league leader in 2022 by developing into a complete receiver who could play any position including from the slot. Is he a great slot receiver, no, but he can play from the slot well enough that the defense has to worry about it, and that's how he went from 88 receptions/1400 yds to 128 receptions/1800 yds at a cost of 2 yds/reception (from 16 down to 14). So he would be an example, perhaps, of exactly what you're talking about here: a guy where the system needed him to do more than go deep and who wound up with better production from that 'generalist' approach. Back to the Bills: we have two receivers in Samuel and Shakir who can technically line up anywhere and run any route, and a very promising TE who was used short last season but may be able to do more than that. But that doesn't mean they have elite or even very good skills everywhere. Shakir may be able to stretch the field vertically if the refs are throwing DH and DPI laundry and he's not facing the opponent's #1 corner, but when it comes to crunch time, in the playoffs, it may become a hole the opponent can exploit. We don't have that guy who can face the other team's #1 corner and double coverage and still get open. The thing is, with Diggs on the team last season, it appeared we still didn't - that's what Greg Cosell described as "the reality on film". That's the Achilles Heel of the "every receiver on a well functioning passing team will do multiple things well": 1) it's actually harder to find and develop guys of whom that's truth. There are plenty of guys who think they can, and long for a broader role, but can't (Beasley thought he could play downfield and talked about that when he came to Buffalo. Spoiler: against a top defense, no, he really couldn't). 2) At crunch time, you may wind up with several guys who do things well, but no one who is elite. No freakazoids. And that may be enough to win, but not enough for a Championship.

Hey. At least you can take props for your clear lack of prejudice. Yeah, Cover1 has been steadily moving from an X's and O's centered approach (which is hard to find) to an analytics/fantasy football centered approach (which is kind of dime-a-dozen IMO) When the X's and O's type guys are talking, I listen. There are 3-4 guys who post here fairly regularly who have stronger football backgrounds than the best of the Cover1 guys, Spoiler: if they disagree on a point with Cover1, pick them.

No question about it. But the fact is, his offensive output as a QB has risen and ebbed, and I tend to think the OC and talent around him did have an impact there. Just sayin! Fair points well made. Certainly I would argue that Denver showed that as HC, Hackett had been promoted above his level of competence. I guess from what @Malazan and others are saying, maybe there are questions about whether in fact Hackett had ever truly had responsibility for the game plan and calling the game, since people believe Matt LaFluer called plays in Green Bay and it was believed Marrone did so in Buffalo and Jax.

Obviously, if St Brown were projected as a league leading receiver, he wouldn't have been drafted in the 4th round. But as has been pointed out, the draft is no sure thing. Players who teams grade lower, outperform players projected to be better every year. That doesn't mean they're a "dime a dozen", it means something about them was over- or under-weighted. When you put up height, weight and 40 time and ask "what physical talent does he have that makes him elite?", it appears as though you believe height, weight, and speed are Where It's At for talent. When the Bills WR got together in Florida in the 2020 off season after the Diggs trade, Dion Dawkins said some thing to the effect of "until I watched Stefon Diggs that day, I had no idea a human being could be that good at football". Diggs (6 feet, 195 lbs, 4.5s 40) had at the time, elite physical abilities to deceive a DB with his hips and feet, to knock off DB hands with physicality, to run crisp and deceptive breaks, and to change speed during his routes so that good angles become bad. It's not his size weight and speed, it's how he is able to use them. And that's true of most of the elite WR in the league. Yes, the quality of the OC, the QB, and the other receivers also matter, but it's like cooking - the chef still needs quality foods. Just to be clear, by "you" here, you're not referring to myself, yes? Because I'm certainly not saying that. (I would say the same goes for St Brown)

Yes, as the league stands today, you're overstating the case. I don't understand the quality fact and analysis basis of saying that there is "nothing much about St. Brown or Kupp that allows them to demand targets, either". I would agree that neither St Brown nor Kupp appear to be diva-type WR, but typically when a guy gets that many targets, there's indeed something about him that's demanding them - he's getting open and/or he's demonstrated his ability to make contested catches or catches in traffic. They're getting the targets, not just because they're somehow in the "right place at the right time", but because they've demonstrated they have the physical and mental abilities to deserve those targets. They aren't just "dime a dozen" guys who showed up in the right place at the right time and could be replaced by any of 11 other receivers. I'm not arguing that Coleman (dark horse), Kincaid, Samuel, or Shakir could not become 1000 yd receivers - in fact, I devoutly hope that you're right, and one or more of them do. But the fact of the matter is, when it comes to Samuel and Shakir, they have had opportunity in the league and have not demonstrated the ability to do so. Samuel in his 8 year career has shown himself to be a dependable slot and gadget guy who can line up outside at times, and claim close to 100 targets a season in 60-ish % of the snaps, on the regular. Shakir has advanced to claim 50% of the snaps, and I thought he took a big jump last season in his route-running and his ability to release, but he just hasn't he hasn't shown signs of what Kupp or St Brown did their initial years in the league. Could he be a slow developer, sure. He did come from a lower level of competition at Boise State, with a lot to learn. Kincaid showed flashes. He is so smooth, he has great hands, he runs nice routes. Of anyone on the team, I have the highest hopes for him. The question is: how will the Bills use him? He had 91 targets and 9 Y/R last year. It's hard to break 1000 yds with that. He'd need like 140-ish targets. I was told that Utah used him differently, on deeper routes, and he did well. Time will tell I guess. As far as whether the Bills will have >4000 yds passing this season, well, the Chiefs did last year - 4,183 to be exact. And, they did it without a 1000 yd receiver, though Kelce and Rice came close. But again, the fact is, they weren't an elite passing offense last season until near the end and the playoffs. Their defense and run game carried them.

So this is a series of interesting points. First off, I would say, if we thought Shakir ready and able to lock down a top WR role, we probably wouldn't have used our biggest FA signing on Samuel, who actually is a more Shakir-trajectory kind of a receiver who started out slow and earned his way from 30-ish to 50-ish to 86% of the snaps, with production rising from 13 y/g to 38 y/g to 57 y/g (under Brady as OC). I think of both as Swiss-army-knife type guys, who can play from the slot but also run routes outside. I think it's pretty clear that the Bills don't want a stable of "Swiss-army-knife" type guys. They want a big guy who can get off press and win contested catches with DBs draped all over him, and they don't feel 100% confident he joined the roster when they drafted Coleman hence the shot at Claypool. They also want a fast guy who can stretch the field, hence the MVS signing. MVS is a guy who is a legit field stretcher. His lowest Y/R is 15, his best season was 20. Claypool, in his first two (successful) seasons, was a 14 Y/R guy. I think it's been pointed out that while Diggs managed 17 Y/R the year before Buffalo traded for him, that really wasn't his bread-and-butter either before or afterwards. Now to the elite offense/spreading the ball around bit. That's essentially what KC tried last season, and it took them to the Superbowl - but their offense was NOT elite last season. They were what, #15 on points scored? They rode their #2 defense through games. They had a rusher close to 1000 yds and two receivers close to 1000 yds in Kelce and Rice. But even Kelce, who I would argue has been the Chief's #1 receiver since Mahomes was handed the keys (there were 2 years where Hill had more yards, but in one of them Kelce had more targets and receptions) - Kelce's targets and YPG declined to levels he hasn't seen since 2016. A bit of an aside, and not intended to argue against your overall point about #1 and #1/#2 WR, but last season, 2 of the 4 final teams (Ravens, #4 offense on points, and 49ers #3 offense on points) were run-first teams who rush more than they throw, but in very different styles. Baltimore's leading rusher for yards is their QB Lamar and they were 30th for passing attempts. Zay Flowers, their #1 receiver, had 77 receptions for 858 yds and after him, they spread the ball around pretty well - OBJ and Agholor, their two TE Andrews and Likely. The 49ers on the other hand, despite being #32 for passing attempts, had two 1000 yd receivers in Aiyuk and Kittle, and a 3rd 900 yd-ish receiver in Samuel. And, they were not very different in targets - 105, 90, and 89. I'm not sure who you'd say their undoubted #1 receiver was. On the other hand, you can by sure and by damn tell who their #1 RB is in Christian McCaffery. Their offense clearly runs through him, one of the few big trades where one can seemingly say the receiving team got their money's worth, as long as he's healthy. Anyway, a bit off your point, but I thought it was interesting to bring up in the context of #1 and #2 receivers - that essentially, 2 of the 4 final teams were run-centric teams and, I would argue, the two who played in the Superbowl, really didn't fit the pattern of having a clear #1 target at receiver and 3/4 arguably didn't have an elite passing game. Then of course, in terms of top offenses last year, the Cowboys and Dolphins very much fit the #1 or #1/#2 target pattern. I just thought it's worth pointing out that there are other ways to win (defense) and to run an elite offense, but unless Brady envisions James Cook transforming into Christian McCaffery, I really hope he's not planning to try to adopt the Ravens run-Lamar-run model.

to amplify on this a bit: Kupp had close to 100 targets his rookie year and racked up 58 ypg. His second year, which was cut short by injury, was over 70 ypg which is pretty well the level he stayed at while getting more targets, until he did 'break out' during the Ram's SB season after they traded Stafford for Goff. But he was on the field 75% of the time starting his rookie year, and that only went up. The point is, he was on the field and contributing strongly from his first year, bar injury. Similar kind of thing with St Brown - he was contributing 54 ypg his rookie year and that went up to 73 then 95 ypg, but he was also on the field 75% of the snaps his rookie year and that only went up. With Shakir, I don't remember that "roster bubble" bit in pre-season. I think it was more we were looking harder at the guys who actually were, with the usual crop of "pre season heroes" from open practice. But while he had his "why don't we see more of him?" fans his rookie year, his catch % was 50% and he wasn't running sharp routes. He worked hard between his 1st and 2nd seasons, and it paid off big time in a huge jump in catch % from 50% to 86.7%, in playing time from 29% to 52% of the snaps, and a jump in YPG from 12 to 34. But no, Kupp and St-Brown were NOT on similar early year trajectories to Shakir. Nothing like. And of course, your point is valid that just because a guy looks good in limited snaps and when he's the #3 target in terms of how teams focus their attention, his production won't necessarily scale when he gets more snaps and a higher level of defensive attention (see Davis, Gabe)

I love your writing, as always. This is a drum you've been banging a while now, though, and I think it ignores a bunch of contrary evidence. First of all, on the "WR are the new RBs" thing. You omit all the rule changes the NFL has made to protect the QB and favor the passing game, in search of a more exciting visual spectacle. Bluntly put, the number of fans excited by a grind-it-out battle between two strangling defenses is far lower than the number of fans excited by an "oohs and aaahs" laser light show between a top QB and his receivers pushing the ball downfield. The NFL has taken that into account with the rules. This means that the passing game, favored as it is, has become more efficient than the running game. In the battle for who ends the the game with the most points, that naturally means teams value what gets them those points. You have valid and good points about the physical skills and abilities of players coming out of college these days and the narrowing gap between "great" and "good" players. But I don't think that's the major driver of the lower value on RBs these days. I think rule changes favoring the passing game, and a lag in the "arms race" so to speak, between the type of defenses and defensive players necessary to shut down a high powered passing attack vs. a high powered running game, are more significant. Also, please keep in mind that the strong contributions of a receiver drafted in the 4th round like Amon Ra St Brown or the 5th round like Stefon Diggs, is not on the face of it evidence that "WR are a dime a dozen" and many are able to succeed in a good offensive system, but that draft evaluators are trying to predict NFL success for guys coming out of different levels of college competition, and the draft is far from an exact science. That seems to be conflated a bit, above. You also seem to disregard the effects of "father time" when considering the career trajectories of players like DHop and OBJ. They went from greatness, to hired guns, not because "WR are a dime a dozen now" or because they were system fits who lost their luster in a new system, but because of the unrelenting impact of hundreds of hits and in some cases, the need to rehab and recover from significant injuries, on their level of talent. DHop had a great season full of luster the year after he was traded to ARI - #3 in the league, just behind Adams and Diggs. The next two years, he struggled with hamstring injuries and torn MCLs. Likewise OBJ - he had a top-notch career derailed by a serious ankle facture in 2017, put up similar numbers in 2018 with the Giants and 2019 with Cleveland, then he tore his ACL which he's now done twice. Last, I'd like to look at the impact of a Tyreek Hill. Tyreek Hill is a physical freak, yes. But he's had league-leading numbers with two different teams and QBs, not just because he's a physical freak, but because he played next to a future HOF physical freak of a receiver in Kelce in KC and next to another top WR in Miami in Waddle. I would say this opposes your argument about "dime a dozen" WR - not only are top receivers significant, but top offenses usually pair two of them together. Kelce and Hill in KC; Hill and Waddle in Miami; Chase Higgins and Boyd in Cincy; AJ Brown added to Devonta Smith in Philly. Then there's a point that however large the impact of truly top WR may be, it's ultimately limited by the quality of the team around him. Let's look at a guy like Davante Adams, who had 5 successive probowl seasons capped by 2 successive all pro seasons in GB. He had arguably as good of a season with a lesser talent in Carr throwing to him in LV the year after he was traded - #3 in the league, probowl, All-Pro - yet it ultimately lacked impact on team wins because of the quality of the coaching and team around him. Do you really want to make the argument that the Bills passing offense was as strong in 2022 or 2023 with Diggs, Davis, and who? vs 2020 or 2021 with Diggs, Beasley, John Brown or Emmanuel Sanders, and Davis? If WR are "dime a dozen", shouldn't it have been? Ultimately, I think talent level does matter - and the Bills have been fighting since 2021 to get back to that level of talent in the WR room. OK, enough opining. Let's turn our attention to some hard evidence regarding this "WR are a dime a dozen" or "WR are the new RBs" though. First, Follow the Money Franchise Tags. Currently WR have the 4th highest franchise tag values, right after QB, DT, and LB. Franchise tags, of course, reflect what teams are actually paying players at different positions. So why is that, if WR are now regarded as "a dime a dozen"? Next, Follow the Draft. Can we agree that teams tend to consistently take shots in the first two rounds, particularly the first rounds, at player positions that are of high importance to their team's success? That's why we see so many QBs consistently drafted in the 1st, even though teams know very well that they won't all become Franchise Guys - teams know they need a QB, and other teams will be taking their shots. Well, WR are one of the most numerically common positions drafted in the top 2 rounds and especially, the first round, for the last 6 NFL drafts. 2019 1st: 2 2nd: 7 2020 1st: 6 2nd: 7 2021 1st: 5 2nd: 5 - 3 of those 1st round WR were drafted in the top 10 picks 2022 1st 6 2nd: 7 - 5 of those 1st round WR drafted in the top half 2023 1st 4 2nd: 4 2024 1st 7 2nd: 4 - 3 of those 1st round WR were drafted in the top 10 picks. Seems to me that if WR were truly a "dime a dozen" now a days, teams wouldn't be using up so much top draft capital in the 1st round, and the 1st 2 rounds. Cheers!

The rumor at the time Hackett was OC in Buffalo was that Marrone was putting together the game plan and calling the plays, to the frustration of players and of Hackett himself. I agree Hackett was promoted beyond his sphere of competence to be HC in Denver, but he did manage to put together a pretty good offensive season in Jax with Blake Bortles as his QB. So there must be something there. Logic says that Rodgers wouldn't have the hard-on for Hackett he apparently has, if Hackett didn't bring something offensively valuable to the table. I really don't want to become a "Hackett apologist", I'm not saying he's all that and a bag of chips, I'm just saying that logically, it's unlikely he's trash.