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Everything posted by Beck Water
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Poyer is on the practice squad. Players on the practice squad are generally only on the field if all of the better athletes are unavailable. Cam Lewis was also only on the field when the better athletes were unable to go. Ditto AJ Klein - he only saw the field when the LBs ahead of him were injured. Who exactly are these available better athletes at the position he was playing, that he kept off the field? Levi Wallace was a starter, so you got me there. But I'm curious as to the identity of the superior athletes you feel he was played ahead of. Dean Marlowe? Jaquan Johnson? Siran Neal? Who are these proven veterans, better than Poyer, who are lining up to sign to our practice squad?
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With this, I can't argue. Last year with Hyde, it was "OK, they're trying to jump-start Bishop." But if you're continually jump starting your car, there's quite likely something wrong.
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Edmunds, despite some of the views here, was a contributing player from his rookie year. He wasn't the Luke Kuechly McDermott hoped for, but he was a capable NFL player. A better analogy would be 2nd rounder Cody Ford, drafted as a RT. He didn't hold his position down as a RT, so they kept moving him around the line hoping he'd be good enough somewhere until after 3 years, they gave up. Or Kaiir Elam, who was hoped to be getting it after his 2nd year when he showed flashes, but sucked last season. IMO, a justified criticism of Beane's personnel strategy isn't so much poor drafting, as it is sticking with a guy a year too long when he isn't playing up to expectations. I guess you could refer to moving on late from a draft pick who doesn't pan out as a "type I error", and moving on froman actual capable player too early as a "type II error. Beane and Co are 100% "type II averse" guys. This may actually be McDermott - he's been quoted several times as saying players really take a step in their 3rd season. The problem with that as a player development philosophy, is it basically assumes the team will only get 2 good years out of a 4 year contract. You Do You, Boo. No one on the field for the Bills is "out of position all the time". The Bills 11th on points was their worst D since 2020. You simply don't field a top-3rd D in the NFL with players who are "out of position all the time". Are there mistakes, Sure, but the problem with a mentally quick guy who physically doesn't have it is he can understand where he should be, and be there, and still not close the deal.
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All this, but also, I think they use camp as a barometer for what leadership is already in the room. Bernard, for example, took over the LB room immediately. It was his room, and he was willing to get in anyone's face when they weren't doing their job. Guy could have 5" and 105 lbs on him, Terrel Bernard don't care. Rapp can barely control himself. Hamlin doesn't seem like a "get in your face" kind of guy. If Bishop was behind the scenes in camp seeing things the way he needs to see them and ready to lead the room, Poyer be home on the sofa now.
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No. No, he isn't. I'm not saying Hamlin is great but he's serviceable, and Poyer just isn't. His mind is willing but his body can't get him there. It's like AJ Klein, when the Bills brought him in in 2020, he was 29 yrs old and after some teething pains when he took over for Milano he played well and even took home "defensive player of the week" honors. But by 2022 he had fallen off considerably, and by 2023 at age 32 he was cooked. He understood what he was seeing, he knew where he was supposed to be, he simply couldn't get there.
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He's this year's Micah Hyde, there to get in the head of Bishop and provide vet leadership to the other safeties. It doesn't help the guys in the room to watch film obsessively if they don't have the top-level knowledge of what they're looking for. Poyer >> Hamlin in his instincts, but No. Last year it was to be seen that his mind was willing but his body didn't answer the bell. Instincts only take you so far.
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Practice squad, perhaps?
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"We all" doesn't seem to include a number of people here. Yes
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A lot of our local media seemed to favor keeping him. 4 pm EST although at the end, the NFL often runs a backlog processing things
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I wanted to "bump" this because these data are very important for people to understand. The point still stands that for a successful team, the relevant comparators are probably other successful teams, not all 32 teams. Overall it supports the point I've been making for years based on my own data mining - the chances of landing a capable NFL player - not a star, not a legend, just a guy who can "do his job" on the roster - is something like 50% in the 1st 20 picks of the first round, falls to 30% bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, 20% through the 3rd round, and 15% ish or less after that.
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Yeah, it's hard to know what went on with Motor. He played out his rookie deal on the Bills with 3000+ yds which is value for a 3rd rounder. On the other hand, the Bills clearly weren't overall happy with him or they wouldn't have drafted Moss and then used a 2nd on James Cook in the last year of that deal. I do have to say overall during his tenure here, the OCs committment to the run game is best described as "tenuous" or perhaps "nonexistant". Hard to tell which came first there - the lack of quality player personnel to depend upon in the run game, or the poor design and execution of run plays to fit with the skills of the players. You would have a more reasoned opinion there than I could. I could be mistaken, but I didn't think they were grooming them for the same roles? Or was Strong playing boundary? I thought they had Strong playing nickel and dime back.
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The Eagles did follow up their SB winning season with 3 mediocre seasons and 1 bad season, so there's that.
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Huh? Cody Ford was drafted in 2019, the year after Allen. He wasn't even a gleam on Beane's draft board during the trade up to the 2018 draft. Singletary was the 10th pick of the 3rd round, and I think one of the clearest commentaries on Singletary's mediocre rookie season was the fact that Beane drafted an RB in the 3rd round the following year. I don't disagree with Beane's track record being better than many think it is (it's harder to draft consistently and well than many here think, and the overall "bust" rate is higher than people think). It's also a valid counterpoint that Beane has earned his way into a harsher comparator set of only the top GMs
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This actually surprises me quite a bit. Somewhat implies that they're happy with both Hairston and Tre White I think. Jackson has played teams (though I have no opinion on how well) in the past when not starting.
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The comparator being top teams, competitive year after year, vs all 32 teams is a fair point. Beane should be compared to Veach (Chiefs), Roseman (Eagles), DeCosta (Ravens), Snead (Rams), Lynch (SF), Holmes (Lions); very good point.
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Beane in the 2nd round: 2018: traded as part of the move-up-for-Allen-and Edmunds strategy 2019: Cody Ford, drafted as RT. Bust from that perspective, though injuries may have played a role; started 9 games at G for Bengals last season 2020: AJ Epenesa. Slow start to his career, but signed 2nd contract with the team and seemed to take a step last year 2021: Boogie Basham. Bust from the perspective of quality DE for us. 2022: James Cook. Just signed 2nd contract 2023: O'Cyrus Torrence: thought we liked him? 2024: Cole Bishop. Early to tell, but looking like he doesn't "get it" so far 2025: TJ Sanders: Def too early to tell. So if we give Beane a mulligan on 2018 and a TBD for 2024 and 2025 (which I think we should) we have 5 2nd round picks, 3 good, 2 busts so 60% That's actually rather better than what I believe to be league average for back of the 1st/2nd round, which I think is like 30-40%
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Cook signed👀 - 4 / 48 / 30 mil guaranteed
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
Well yeah, but the "only Active 53 counts" lasts for what, 8 days? before everyone on the team has to fit under the cap - dead cap, 53 man, IR, PS right? -
Cook signed👀 - 4 / 48 / 30 mil guaranteed
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
According to Spotrac, the Bills currently stand at -$28.32M in cap space. -
Cook signed👀 - 4 / 48 / 30 mil guaranteed
Beck Water replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
Interesting point, @ganesh According to Spotrac, this year's $5.6M guaranteed was altered by the contract. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/76939/james-cook They have him as a $3.5M cap hit this season. The only carry over from his rookie deal seems to be the $355k chunk of his amortized rookie signing bonus for 2025. Guaranteed money is a new $9M signing bonus, this seasons $1.28M salary, and part of his 2026 salary. I don't like the way Spotrac lists it - his 2026 salary is $2.01M base plus a $7.4M option bonus the team can amortize if they choose (Spotrac assumes they will choose). $5M of that $9.41M is guaranteed now, and the rest is injury-guaranteed now but fully guarantees early next Feb. So right now, as best I can tell, Cook has $15.28M that is fully guaranteed now, plus an additional $13.54M that is injury guaranteed now but will fully guarantee in increments ($4.4M Feb 2026, $6.22M of 2027 salary the 5th day of the 2026 league year, then an additional $2.91M of 2027 salary the 5th day of the 2027 league year). Cook collects $10.28M in new, guaranteed money this season - which is a lot more than $5.6M. He has an additional $5M of 2026 salary guaranteed to him right now, plus $18.4M in injury guarantees of future salary right now. It's a much better deal for Cook than playing out the final year of his rookie contract and guarantees his future financial security, but it's also a pretty well structured deal for the Bills. -
Since Rasul Douglas isn't on the team, that's a low bar At the point of stating the obvious, the difference would be that Ingram knows our scheme
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McDermott - "Still looking for that other safety"
Beck Water replied to HappyDays's topic in The Stadium Wall
Now that was a Shot Across the Bow I believe McDermott said it's the hardest position to learn in his defense (I would have thought that would be MLB, but whatdoIknow)? Hardest to learn not the same as "most important"