Beck Water

To your first point, Right On. The Bills may not be as good a team as the Bengals, especially without two key players on D (Miller and Hyde) and with others playing hurt (Poyer, Phillips) or out (DaQuan Jones). On the other hand, the Bengals may not be as good a team as the Bengals, especially with 3 backup OL (my point being, both teams were missing important players, no excuse there) But the question really isn't whether the Bengals roster and coaches, in some abstract sense, are better than the Bills roster and coaches, in some abstract sense. They may be, they may not be; you can think they're not, I wouldn't fight you over it. I think the point people are trying to make, is that the loss, and the way the Bills lost, doesn't necessarily reflect some abstract humongulous talent differential between the teams (more in a minute), but rather a difference in the intensity level with which the teams approached the games. The Bengals came out hot and gave us everything they had; the Bills looked flat, as though they'd already given everything they had and were writing post-dated checks. It was a horrible, terrible, no good very bad game. Then the following week, the Bengals (IMHO) looked flat against the Chiefs, as though the Bengals had already given everything they had and were writing post-dated checks themselves. Not as flat as the Bills had looked the week before, but still, plenty flat. I can't tell you why. I can tell you, that when a team is flat, there's apparently not some magic reset button the coaches can push. As far as talent level: The Bengals are a talented team. They lost to the Steelers, the Ravens, and split with the Chiefs (regular season W, playoff L) and ended the season 12-4. The Bills are a talented team. They beat the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Chiefs in the regular season 13-3 with wins over a number of the same teams. I don't know if the Bills are better in terms of roster and coaching than the Bengals, or the Bengals are better than the Bills. I can say that, playing in the same conference against many of the same opponents, winning against some teams they lost to, It's not likely that as of last season, there was some gaping talent chasm - which some people here seem to think there is. Whether that will be true next season, Can't Tell Yet.

Again, very well written and well thought out post. To the point about roster and lineup: The Jaguars beat the Bills last season. In fact, the Jags kind of embarrassed them. I don't think anyone would look at last year's Jaguars roster, and say "they were a better roster" and certainly not "they were better coached". But the Bills came out flat, like "yeah, nothing to worry about here" (or maybe they were all out partying, who knows) and the Jaguars got psyched up "look at them over there, they aren't acting like they want it, they don't deserve to win, let's prove we deserve to win" and that was that story. The Jags were the better team - that day. The point is, in the modern NFL, the talent difference is not so large over an entire team that other factors can't come into play. I had the chance to chat with a former OLman, a name you would recognize. One of the questions I asked was, why sometimes a team that's not so good defeats a favored team; or, a less-talented player wins against a dominant player. As you might imagine, he kinda waffled and said a lot goes into it blah blah. Sometimes the opponent's coach finds weaknesses and has a better plan. Sometimes the opposing player does a great job of watching film and identifies some tendencies they can exploit. But he said (and this is interesting) it's much more mental and emotional than I might think. He said the most successful players aren't necessarily the most athletic talents, but the guys most driven mentally and most able to turn themselves up emotionally week after week. That if a team plays a really tough game and pulls out all the stops to win one week, it can be hard to physically recover, put the same level of mental focus into preparation, and get back to the same level of emotional intensity the following week. He said sometimes one team just comes in fired up and knocks the "better" team off kilter. And that can change during the game. We were talking about Ryan Fitzpatrick coming in as a rookie, setting a record (I don't remember for what - comeback by a rookie?) and defeating the Houston Texans (the Rams were behind 3-24 at the half, and won 33-27) - everyone liked Fitz, and he threw everything he had into the game so the team turned it on and went harder while the Texans were "wait, what just changed?" But also that sometimes you can't tell the reason why the team is flat, and the reasons the team is fired up might seem petty or silly to outsiders. My kid now works in Lafeyette, IN, home of Purdue. I don't think anyone would argue that Fairleigh Dickinson had more talent than Purdue, but they were the better team - that day.

All I can say to this is: Thank You. It's so well put that there's really nothing else to say.

Incredible, isn't it? "Oh yeah, these guys were great players for years but they stopped playing or didn't play as well after major injuries therefore they must suck" At the risk of sounding like an Andy Reid apologist, let's take it further. The Chiefs won the Superbowl in 2019 a year after their 1st-year starter won league MVP. You can't do that without a good OL, you simply can't. Then they lost the Superbowl, tore down their OL completely, went right back to the conference championship the following year with a rebuilt OL that sustained a bit better run game, and won last season with that OL. (Still very much an OL built to support the passing game tho) So they won 2 Superbowls in 4 years with two completely different OLs, and this guy wants to tag Reid as being a poor OL talent evaluator and having bad OLs. Now let's go back a decade or more to 2009 when Reid rebuilt the Eagles offense around a running miracle on cleats named LeSean McCoy and had a top-10 offense for 3 years with QB named McNabb and Vick. Completely different style of offense designed around McCoy's skillset in the run game, but amazingly enough, one of the players he brought in (a C named Jason Kelce) is still playing in the league and has won 2 Superbowls himself since then. No doubt, because Reid is a poor evaluator of OL talent. It boggles the mind. I con only pray that the Bills FO might become subpar at evaluating OL talent to that degree. All I can think of is that the chosen screen name "Einstein" must be intended as ironic.

How to tell us you didn't read the OP without telling us you didn't read the OP: "Each of the 10 units are ranked 1-32 based on current rosters (assuming Rodgers on NYJ for now) and weighted based on positional importance"

Just guessing, but I'm thinking that maybe he doesn't rate Davis that highly and that Harty (who missed a lot of games last season with a foot injury) and Sherfield (who had 1 good season playing behind two top receivers in the league, Hill and Waddle) aren't considered legit as weapons. I'm not saying they can't be or don't have the potential to be, but I think one would have to say they would be assessed as "not proven"

I'm not saying there's an agenda, or a problem. To the contrary - I'm pointing out that expert opinion is usually worthy of respect. I am pointing out that digitizing a subjective opinion doesn't make it empirical

Huh? Thought Colts slot last season was Parris Campbell, now with the Giants Do Pittman (6'4") and Pierce (6'3") really play that much from the slot? If McKenzie had choices, I can't say he chose poorly to hitch his wagon to Steichen and a Colts team populated by giants (at WR)

But the assertion is, he's basing the rankings upon the current roster at this point in FA and prior to the draft, correct? (I'm not disagreeing with you, just clarifying my own understanding of what the rankings are supposed to represent)

They definitely were separate Achilles tears, different sides. That's why I was wondering if he tore the 2nd one because he had unconsciously compensated for the first - maybe not because of the strength of the Achilles but other reasons (flexibility, strength) He's only got 1 more year in the league than Edwards and Bates (26 1/2 next fall) and 2 more than Connor McGovern (26 next fall). Does calendar age really make that much difference for an OLman? As OL starters, I go with the axiom you can't improve by keeping things the same. The R side of our line was not good enoughlast year, and either Brown backslid, OR, he looked better playing next to Darryl Williams at G in 2021 than Bates in 2022 which would say something for quality.

Yep, that's my sense. In other words, it's his subjective opinion that he's trying to quantify numerically, to make it appear empirical and data-driven. 11 or so years ago, our family was trying to make a decision on where to send our child to middle and high school. I had us each write down our "gut impressions" of the schools and rank them in order best match to least match, entirely based on our subjective opinion. This wasn't good enough for my spouse, a multi-degreed engineer. Spouse came up with 6 categories on which we were each independently to rank each school numerically from 1 to 5, then sum the scores to produce an "objective, empirical" ranking. I did my honest best. Wanna hear the spoiler? The numerical rankings we each came up with differed - but exactly matched our individual subjective ranks. Huh. I'm not trying to diss Mike Clay on his subjective opinion. The opinion of a knowledgeable person is always worth hearing. I just don't care for the modern trend for trying to add gravitas to opinions by digitizing them.

You aren't scrutinizing facts, that's my point. Facts are a complete story, positive and negative; omitting positive results when pointing to negative results is not factual. It's a form of crafting a narrative, which is a form of scapegoating, Mr Clown. Do whatcha like, but I'll call it the way I see it as well; don't expect to dowhatcha like while telling me to"slow down on people who share my viewpoint". I'm done here though.

So the Rams actually opened a 21-day window for him to practice with the team, but then didn't activate him. That's the story I guess we'll never hear - had he lost too much "game shape" during his time on IR recovering from his 2 concussions? - did he start having symptoms again when he started practicing so he couldn't be activated? - was it a "business decision" on the Rams side, where the Rams had just lost 6 games in a row and decided to shut down Matthew Stafford, so the risk of bringing him back and having him concussed a third time and potentially carried on the IR rolls outweighed any competitive benefit? - was it a "business decision" on the part of Edwards and his team, to ensure that he was healthy at the start of FA?

So a point worth remembering is that Ike started 10 games at LG for the Bills in 2021. When the Bills abandoned the Cody Ford Project after 3 games, Boettger was their first choice ahead of Feliciano and Bates. They then experimented with Feliciano for two games, switched Feliciano to RG and moved Boettger back to LG when Brown was injured, but then they stuck with Boettger at LG until he got hurt. Dawkins really liked playing with him, coining "you say Boettger, I say Stallion" and both Beane and McDermott referred to his injury as "very significant" in the same sentence as losing Tre White. Now, that's not to say in the grand scheme of things, we shouldn't be looking for better but the Bills did like him better than Bates, who started at RG all last season, and better than Feliciano, who started at C for the Giants all 15 games (though the G-men didn't bring him back) Primarily - I think it's an unanswered question whether he can regain the same form playing on 2 repaired Achilles. Sometimes athletes compensate for an injury on one side, making the other side more likely to be injured. Then when both go, they can't get back to the same level. More than just a $50k signing bonus, the Bills have him at the very lowest level of contract, a VSB contract where he's paid vet minimum but counts against the cap as a 2nd year player. I think that reflects similar uncertainty in minds around the league about whether he can come back from the 2nd Achilles.

Well, we all know that players can develop their technique beyond what they show pre-draft, too, and clearly Edwards did so. I hadn't thought about Edwards as a potential RT add, but given that Kromer worked with him - "at all 4 positions" as the man himself said - Kromer ought to know if Edwards has potential at RT that might let him compete or even put him ahead of Brown. I like the add even more now. I thought it was interesting that Edwards declined to discuss his concussions last season.

No, you're not mis-remembering at all that Ike had 2 Achilles injuries. The first was in college his Sr year (2017) - the other side from the one he tore last season. He was signed as an UDFA but not until mid-May and the recovery is probably why. I don't think it kept him out of training camp his rookie season. Come to think of it, that 9 month recovery timeline might be one reason the Bills expected him back earlier in the season, though they did say he'd had a setback. In his interview (linked above) he mentioned that unless the OLman is a C, Kromer tries everyone at all 4 other positions. So evidently he had the opportunity to compete at RT. You may be correct playing at LG was just an attempt to put the best 5 on the field and Havenstein was better, but I looked up his draft and combine report and a lot of it sorta translates to me as "projects at G in the NFL" https://www.nfl.com/prospects/david-edwards/32004544-5733-7483-3a0b-c9cc2e7a9e47 Stuff like "slides are quick but might not gain enough ground" "outside hand gets erased opening path to his QB" etc. But it is notable that when they were down Whitworth and their swing T, the Rams did start Edwards at LT for a game, and it wasn't a disaster.

Well, that's definitely true. Who was it, Pat Shurmur, who quipped "I don't know any QB who says 'Hey, let 'em come up the middle, I can handle it' I just don't know that the C and G are especially more important to a QB like Josh. Obviously the Blind Side is still critical, and a number of Josh's critical sacks and strip sacks have come rolling to the R. But for sure, the QB can't step up into the pocket if there isn't a pocket.

Oh, intriguing thought. I'm gonna go with "no", in that typically if a guy has the tools to succeed at T in the league, that's where they put him. And typically, if you sign a guy because he's looked good at one position, you don't want to ask him to learn a new position. However, fun fact - Edwards actually started a game at LT in 2021 when both Whitworth and his backup Noteboom were ruled out with Covid. The Rams won, 30-23. Stafford was not sacked. I agree with you that the Bills have a type. On the other hand, when drafting and signing FA to type produces a sub-par OL with a non-existent run game year after year, at what point does the FO need to evaluate whether their type is the best fit for what they're trying to accomplish?

So your solution on what to do if the draft were today, is to trade (what? a draft pick? a player? who?) for an aging and recently-injured former great with a high salary like Hopkins or Evans, then spend more cap $$ on a 1 year rental of Bobby Wagner, who has fallen off in coverage the last year or so? Then use the late round picks we have left after trading for Hopkins to try to upgrade from Oliver, a former 1st round pick, and Spencer Brown, a 3rd round pick? Brilliant. Why didn't Beane think of that? PS Kyle Allen is here as our current backup QB

I agree with you about what they should do Objectively assessing Beane's MO, I think his pressers translate to "we're gonna give Brown another year" I think making our biggest FA signing a G and bringing in a formerly good G to compete signals we're not gonna be drafting a G I hope I'm wrong.

What Dawkinstein said and @davefan66 as well, and no, running out to buy an Apple won't solve some of your problems. You need to isolate your computer from the internet and disinfect it. Depending upon how good the hackers were, and how good you are, this may be a job for professionals. My SIL had good luck with Geek Squad. If the computer is old enough that you might consider replacement anyway, replace it. You also need to change ALL your passwords, especially passwords to banks, ASAP. Also change your security questions. Don't give the same answers to the new ones. Make up *****. "Where did you meet your wife?" "Tattooine" "What was your first car?" "Austin Martin" that kind of thing. Invest in a good secure password program and keep track of the questions and answers there (and keep it OFF your infected computer). Don't forget to change router and modem passwords and update their firmware if not current. Lock your credit with all 3 credit bureaus. This will prevent thieves from opening new credit cards in your name. Be aware that malware may be embedded in any backups you make of docs or data, so those have to be scanned with good software before you let them back on an uninfected machine. Be aware that the very best (or worst depending upon perspective) malware will disable anti-malware software and produce a specious "no malware found" report. Good luck. Because of my streaming habits we got trojan infections on the computer I used until we set up a separate computer to run Linux for the purpose. Most of the malware barfs on Linux.

LOL are you actually, seriously, using the fact that a player, or more than 1 player, failed to come back from serious injury to argue that they weren't good players before they were injured? So if a player rips both knees out, or has back surgery, or only plays one season after coming back from an Achilles tear at age 30, it somehow is supposed to prove they were bad before they were injured? C'Mon Man. You're becoming a caricature. ChiefsPlanet LOL the fan site most Chiefs fans regard as a cesspool of bad opinions and fan rabidity

It's not gonna work. He's not gonna stop because you say that. 50 of us could say that and he's not gonna stop

Ha Ha. For definitions of "always" equal to "only in 2022, when he was rehabbing the achilles he tore late in the 2021 season. Seriously, I don't see the Bills re-up'ing him if they didn't think he'd be good to go for TC.

I'm really not clear on that bit about the G and C being more important. I think with the O operating so much out of shotgun, and with Josh sometimes dropping back from that, the DL can go wide and get a clear bead on Josh if the OTs don't have good lateral movement. Obviously I'm trying to wipe it from my memory banks, but I seem to recall the Bengals rushing wide from the right side and just beating Brown like a drum.