Beck Water

So as I understand it, the NFLPA ended their ride service with the rise of Uber and Lyft, but Uber and Lyft and taxis are all options. Something like 2/3 of NFL teams used to have "player protection" ride services, dunno if they're still operating. A number of sports agents, as I understand it, have a 24 hr concierge service for their clients where they call a toll free number and whatever they need, the concierge will shake a tailfeather to "make it so". My car insurance has roadside assistance. Call the number on the insurance card. So many options for a wealthy young person who wants to head out for a night of fun. That is a possibility. And if it's true that he declined to provide police with a blood sample, that's sketch. I can't disagree, I'm just saying that the fact that other vehicles avoided Haskins while the truck didn't doesn't mean there's a problem with the truck or its driver, trucks having different physics and ergonomics.

It sounds as though they're trying to blame someone - anyone. I don't find it hard to believe that a handful of cars might manage to brake and avoid a pedestrian but the driver of a vehicle with less maneuverability and more mass/longer braking distance might not. Doesn't mean it's the dump truck driver's fault. When you're a truck driver and you know you have blind spots, you can't just swerve into another lane without risk of hitting another vehicle/losing control. Still a very sad ending to Haskins' life.

So to this point of more 3 LB sets, I made a post a bit ago looking back at the Bills defense of 2017 (pre-Edmunds), when our MLB was Preston Brown and our OLBs were Zo Alexander and Ramon Humber (then Matt Milano). The Bills defense was 18th on points that year, and I think both our DL and our secondary have been upgraded since then. The principal problem IIRC was they could either shut down the run, or the pass, but struggled against an offense proficient at both. Now, our DL has been reworked since then - DL that year was Shaq Lawson-Kyle Williams - Adolphus Washington - Jerry Hughes with Marcell Dareus in the mix for the first 5-6 games (and helpful in run D). I think Rousseau - Oliver or Phillips - Jones or Settle - Epenesa is better, and adding in Von Miller cinches the clinch. But, if they play more base, and put Bernard at OLB 1) that takes Johnson off the field, and he's good enough that's probably a downgrade 2) who do you see at MLB? I'm not sure what you mean NFL.com (crappy as well)? I will say this: I dunno about NFL.com's grades or their little projection para, but the actual scouting report which is written by Zierlein - when I come back to a scouting report after a guy's been in the pros a couple years and re-read it, I find myself nodding my head.

If you want a peak at Spector, hit the 4Q of the Week 5 Pitt game, we were up big and they called off the dogs.

According to Spotrac, Jordan Phillips is getting $3M this season It's not straightforward to figure, because it is incentivized and those have to be divvied into Likely to be Earned (which count against the cap) and Not Likely to be Earned (which count against next year's cap if they're earned) But No Way is he getting $750k plus incentives - vet minimum salary for a 9 or 10 yr player is $1.065M, and the NFLPA would not allow a player to be paid a lower salary than that. It looks like Phillips is getting $1.805M salary (well above vet min), $500k signing, $100k workout, plus $35k/game active roster bonus and from $200 up to $850k for sacks. So at a minimum, Phillips gets $2.4M (salary + signing bonus + workout bonus), but the NFL considers him likely to get 11 games x $35k per game or $385k roster bonus and $200k sack bonus for 3 sacks "likely to be earned". So $2.985M if you wanna be picky. Rounds to $3.0M TBH Spotrac has a note about his sack bonuses being "noncumulative" which I don't understand - I think it means he doesn't get to add up the sack bonuses so he doesn't get a maximum of $1.65M in sack bonuses if he gets 8 sacks, but I'm not sure. That would explain the initial confusion between a report that Phillips got "up to" $4.7M, vs. the contract that's in Spotrac. That's not $750k plus incentives. That's $2.4M plus incentives, and the NFL considers $600k of the incentives for active roster and for sacks "likely to be earned", so they count in his cap.

I'm certainly not gonna step into a vortex about how many posters on this board act or a straw man about "scrubs vs Gods". I'm only concerned with discussing the contention made that KC has "worse talent" or that the Bills had "better/more" offensive weapons. If you reference my previous post, it seems pretty clear that KC had more depth contributing at RB and more pass-catching from an RB (Singletary was #5 in the league for drop %). Then there's the fact that Juju SS led his team in receptions and yards in his 2nd year (111 receptions, 1426 yds) after a 917 yd, 58 reception rookie tour. So he's been productive with 2 QB and 2 OCs in 2 different schemes at this point. Davis was certainly was given a lot of opportunity to contribute after being limited in his opportunities his first 2 seasons, but while personally, I would hardly call him a scrub or say he isn't a decent #2 WR, I would have to say that in terms of productivity Smith-Schuster has certainly got the edge, and I think part of that is better route running and better hands. That brings us to McKenzie vs MVS - and I have to say, I think KC overpaid for MVS and didn't get the ROI they expected, but again - MVS production in KC last season was very consistent with his previous production in GB, it's not like he hadn't put up similar numbers for different OCs and a different QB. While, given more opportunity, McKenzie had more production - but not what was hoped for. I think it would be pretty hard to argue a higher degree of talent there vs. MVS. I would never deny that Reid has become a strong offensive mind in the game, whereas Dorsey is just putting on his big boy britches and hasn't yet shown that they fit. But I think it's easy to conflate 3 separate things - talent, scheme, and execution (across the offense, not just one player). I saw players schemed open and not thrown to a good bit last season in Dorsey's scheme, so I don't think it's so simple as saying Oh Reid schemes those guys open and Dorsey doesn't. I also saw open guys targeted who muffed it for us - Singletary is damned close to leading the league in drop %, Davis and McKenzie are right up there. Seems to me that's on them, not on the scheme.

? Phillips contract is $2.79M plus incentives, of which enough are "likely to be earned" to make it a $3M contract I'm not sure where you're getting 750k plus incentives, that would be way below vet minimum salary for a player of his tenure. So Phillips got $4.8M last season and $3M this season, which likely reflects the "efficient FA market" weighing in on his value and while it's far from vet minimum (~3x higher), it agree with the point that injuries and production do influence FA value - - which kind of loops back to the point that, while not perfect, what a player is offered in FA is a reflection of how 32 GMs in the league perceive their productivity.

Well, if you look at the stats at Pro Football Reference, the leader in drops is Zay Jones with 13, followed by Amari Cooper with 12 and Ja'mar Chase with 11, then Austin Ekeler, Courtland Sutton, Gerald Everett, Deebo Samuel, Gabe Davis, and Romeo Dobbs all at 9. Right on their heels would be Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Stefon Diggs with 8. Which is why I think drop % is an important metric because a lot of those guys have a high # of drops due to having a high # of targets - but as a % of their targets it's not so bad.

Jordan Phillips isn't getting vet minimum. What you point out is true as a general principle, of course, but would you agree that a generally healthy, 27 yr old Juju Smith-Schuster was signed to a much higher FA deal than a generally healthy 28 yr old Isaiah McKenzie because the FA market evaluates SS as more talented than McKenzie?

It's certainly true that FA don't always offer the ROI the signing team hopes for, but overall seems to me that if a guy is being offered a multi-million multi year contract vs a 1 year, vet minimum contract, it's because talent evaluators around the league believe that one is more talented than another. Sort of the football version of the "efficient market"

Yes, he named Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers. His contention is that the Bills need a "3 level" WR who can both stretch the field vertically, run intermediate routes, and play in the slot. He thinks both those guys could contribute. I'm a bit concerned about Zay Flowers size - but mostly about the "frustrating drops come with the package" line in his scouting report https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zay-flowers/3200464c-4f57-7002-1160-832e9618f0fd So what is your argument that they have "worse talent"? What are your criteria for evaluating this?

Where is this stat that Davis was leading the league in drops? (Spoiler: according to this, he wasn't)

KC receivers last season >300 yds: Kelce (#3 in league for receptions, #8 for yards) Juju S-S (#24 for receptions, #24 for yards, signed for $8.5M/yr, $16M guaranteed) MVS (#93 for receptions, #55 for yards, $11M cap hit this year) Jerick McKinnon (#81 for receptions, #67 for yards) Justin Watson (#234 for receptions, #145 for yards) KC running backs last season ~ 300 yds or more: Isaiah Pacheco (#25 in yards, #33 in attempts) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (#66 for both) Jerick McKinnon (#68 for yards, #65 for attempts) Bills receivers last season >300 yds: Diggs (#4 for receptions, #5 for yards) Davis (#79 for receptions, #33 for yards) Knox (#81 for receptions, #80 for yards) McKenzie (#106 for receptions, #96 for yards, signed for vet minimum) Bills running backs last season >300 yds: Devin Singletary (#26 in yards, #30 in attempts) James Cook (#45 in yards, # 55 in attempts) I would like to understand and evaluate your argument that the Bills had better/more offensive weapons than the Chiefs last year, and still have better/more. Thanks. Both teams had a top quality #1 receiver - Kelce vs Diggs KC had better production from their #2 and #3 receivers - #24 and #55 for yards vs #33 and #80 for yards KC had better production from their #4 receiver - #67 for yards vs # 96 for yards Bills may have had a slight edge in their #2 back but KC had a deeper RB room with 2 quality #2s For FA, KC had a FA signed for 3 yr, $8.5M a year while the Bills had a FA signed for vet minimum and another for a VSB (vet salary benefit) contract if you want to consider Crowder. So the Market spoke pretty loud and clear there. Seems to me based upon data, that KC had the talent/production edge on offensive weapons last year and since SS was their only FA loss, the majority of the talent is still there.

Since I assume they host other players and positions as well, what is the point? How are they supposed to "hide interest" in different positions?

Again FWIW Greg Cosell, who watches a ton of film and seen a few drafts, and who knows enough to stay away from putting out Mock Drafts in public, thinks that at least 2 WR with talent sets that would match what the Bills need will be available at 27. Whether the Bills see them the same way is another question.

Fair point that top vet MLBs don't earn as much as top vet WR. For example, the top 12 WR contracts are all over $20k in AAV; the top 8 "Edge" contracts are over $20k; only the top 5 MLB are over $15k. I'm not quite sure how that folds into the prediction that "Campbell will be a bill for 4-5 years then walk". Depending upon the team's overall makeup and depth at different positions, it could be equally true that a 1st round pick who makes good at edge or WR would be a Bill for 4-5 years then be traded or tagged and traded, or let walk if they don't live up to expectations?

I can’t even figure out the point or argument you’re trying to make. You said the Ravens had money for OBJ but not Jackson. Ravens are reported to have offered Jackson a high money contract but without the full guarantees he wanted. The second fact is that the have a $32M franchise tag on Jackson - twice what OBJ reportedly has signed for Therefore your statement is disproved. WTF Josh Allen has to do with this, beats me. If Josh played out his 5th year option with no contract because the Bills offered something market-appropriate that he wouldn’t sign, then franchising him would have been on the table, but Josh employs agents and a more standard negotiating process

I heard it a little differently - that he doesn’t lift weights with his upper body. I expect he does functional strength training type stuff, which does build muscle but with more attention to strengthening small stabilizer muscles and maintaining flexibility

I'll put some tea leaves down to be read and explain my basis. I think Diggs got a bit out of control last season in demanding the ball at every opportunity. Evidence supporting this: 1) Isaiah McKenzie show, talking about being assigned to "baby sit" Diggs on the sideline and calm him down (I think this was after the Tenn game). Diggs wanted another TD (he already had 3, and the Bills won 41-7) 2) "mic'd up" film of Diggs approaching Knox on the sideline later in the season, 2nd MIA game I think. Knox has just made a good reception, Morris caught a TD earlier. Diggs comes up to Knox and wants recognition for drawing coverage and Knox thanks and praises him and says that arm-over Morris used to get a release for his TD, he must have been watching Diggs. Diggs says "tight ends need to cool off, I Need My Bag!". As he walks away, Beasley says "I'm lucky I got to touch that *****" (***** = ball, referring to his reception earlier in the game). Knox finished the game 6 receptions on 8 targets for 98 yds, Diggs 5 on 9 for 60. 3) Dorsey repeatedly talking in pressers about how the offense works better and players stay more engaged when they spread the ball around. Presser after the CLE game was one of these. In the CLE game, Knox and Davis had more targets and more receiving yards than Diggs (who was 4 of 5 for 48 yds). 4) IIRC after that game there were a lot of questions about how your top receiver only gets 5 targets. In the next game, McKenzie had 6 receptions on 10 targets for 96 yds. But also in that game, Diggs had 8 receptions on 15 targets for 70 yds and Josh appeared to be forcing the ball to him. 5) Josh talking about Case Keenum in the locker room and how Keenum helped him with suggestions on how to "handle some of the players" on the team. Keenum was Diggs QB during the "miracle in Minneapolis" playoff season. Is it excessive dot connecting? 🤷‍♂️ The dynamics of the WR room, in contrast to previous years, did not dampen or rein this in. -In 2021, Manny Sands was past his prime but it's hard to argue with 3 consecutive >1000 yd seasons and playing with Peyton Manning. If Sanders spoke, the room would listen. -In 2022, the most senior WR on the team was McKenzie, who had previously been a "bit player" and a "gadget guy". After McKenzie was signed to his first multi-year contract, Diggs tweeted about McKenzie "owing him money" so Diggs may have put in a word for him to get him signed. All signs point to Senior WR in 2023 could not influence Diggs if necessary. -Prior to 2022, Cole Beasley was in many ways Josh's "guy", the one he looked for when he was in trouble and needed 1Ds. Beasley had a significant role in helping Josh develop his skills to dissect defenses as a QB. If Josh chose to target Beasley in a clutch situation instead of Diggs, there was nothing to say about it. In 2022, Beasley was gone -I think it's significant that Davis and McKenzie reportedly went to Beane and lobbied for Beasley to be brought back at the end of the season. People think Beasley was brought in to replace McKenzie, but that's not what the snap counts say. I think the other Sr WR (Davis and McK) in the room may have lobbied for Beasley to be brought in because the dynamics in the room were out of whack and they were trying to fix it. I felt the whole season was a bit of a push-me-pull-you between Josh trying to get Diggs "his bag" vs Josh trying to execute the offense as Dorsey conceived it. This isn't necessarily selfishness on Diggs part - he was head and shoulders above every other WR on the team in skill and execution. So it's a fair argument that the best thing to do with the ball was get it to Diggs at every opportunity, as he was the most likely to run a great route, catch it, and secure the catch. I think the solution is to have another WR on the team who is closer to Diggs level - not the same skillset, but a different skillset - who is hard to argue against being a "go to" guy.

I think these are valid points, but the proof will be in the "pudding" on draft day. Replacing Isaiah McKenzie with Deonte Harty and Jake Kumerow with Trent Sherfield are reasonable moves with a potential "higher ceiling", and replacing Rodger Saffold with Connor McGovern and adding David Edwards are potential upgrades to pass pro, but none of these 4 moves count as significant upgrades. If this is part of an off-season plan that also includes adding significant offensive pieces in the draft, that will be great. If it's a token nod to the offense while drafting defense with our top 3 picks or even defense with 2/3 top picks, it's lip service. Beane talked about having to redo their "positional value" or some similar lingo. I think that means deciding how positional value factors into their draft board. At its best, it could be a depersonalized way of saying "we need to invest more on offense" vs. having a DC and OC pound the table and glare at each other. At worst, it could be used (consciously or not) as a way of reinforcing a defensive-minded HC personnel priorities.

The Bengals game was not the only game in which Diggs was directing visible unhappiness at not getting the ball at Josh Allen, both on and off the field.

I wonder what quality of financial advice Lamar receives? I'm sure he's not particularly spendthrift and has the smarts to head off shysters - but net present value is a challenging concept to convey

The thing is, I don't think the bit you quoted is actually true: "Roman's most impressive feat was devising an outside-the-box offense around quarterback Lamar Jackson, producing the NFL's most prolific offense in 2019. But Roman never came close to replicating that unpredictable and dominant attack." Roman didn't devise an outside-the-box offense for Lamar Jackson. He essentially had the same offense in San Francisco with Kaepernick and then in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor. The thing which made it different and for a while, more successful, in Baltimore, is that Lamar Jackson is a great athlete where Kapernick and Taylor are good - a better, more elusive runner; a better (compared to those guys) passer with a stronger arm. What limited Roman's offensive success was, first, that in his early years in the league Lamar was limited as a passer. Once enough film was out and the savvier DC's knew what throws he wouldn't attempt (or wouldn't succeed at) they could focus their defense. As Jackson improved in his passing (and multiple players and coaches have commented favorably on this), he started to be limited by Roman's passing offense, which isn't that well designed. Again, this is something that was commented upon back in 2015-2016 when Roman was in Buffalo. Finally, Roman's offense got "solved" by enough teams that it was no longer as successful, and he couldn't adapt. The Ravens made an interesting choice in hiring Todd Monken as OC. He oversaw a rush-heavy offense in Georgia, but previously a pass-heavy offense in Tampa Bay in 2018-2019. So he appears to be flexible and willing to adapt what he does to the talent he has on hand. I don't think that releasing Roman and hiring Monken indicates that the Ravens necessarily want to go in a different direction than Jackson. I think they decided that Roman had a chance to "shoot his shot" and it wasn't good enough to get them to the next level.

? They franchise tagged Jackson There are also reports that they offered him a very competitive contract financially, he just didn't like the terms (not 100% guaranteed)

I think it's very unlikely that any changes McDermott wants to implement would involve switching up to a 3-4 type D with a true NT. The kind of things we're more likely to see would be some of the stuff Cover1 put together on his Carolina D where he did things like double A gap blitzes or rolling the DE inside and having LB on the ends, some drop some rush but who? I do think Beane (and McDermott) over-value under-sized players. In HS and for McDermott, in college, they succeeded as players who were not as big or tall as some of their peers, and who just out-worked and out-competed them. The whole "not the size of the dog in the fight, size of the fight in the dog" trope is something they both personally lived and had some success with. And I do somewhat understand where they're coming from - there was a time when I thought the Bills were too much into the opposite strategy, like drafting and trying to develop players who had ideal measurables but who really weren't "all that" as football players. James Hardy at 6'6" in 2008 comes to mind. A guy can have ideal physique and athleticism but if he isn't dedicated to his craft in all aspects (rehabbing injuries, watching film, burning desire to be great) he won't make it. The thing is, once you get to the top level of teams where the players are equally fired up and dedicated, big man wins.