Beck Water

Great question. I think it might have been one of those pre-game interview sessions Chris Simms does before Sunday Night football? *rummage rummage* yeah, here it is. Discussion of how he works out 15 minutes in. I think people are misunderstanding what he said, he said he doesn't do barbell lifts or military press, does do some dumbbell lifts, focus is on keeping his upper body flexible and pliable - that's a lot different from not doing upper body workouts or upper body strength training at all. Anyway the whole interview is really good IMHO, Josh talks about his mechanics a lot and you get to watch him standing there just tooling around with the ol' Arm Cannon for most of it. Good listen.

Not doubting you, but wondering from that photo how he looks "bad thiccc"? Serious Q Looks like he muscled up his calves, thighs and butt, which several running QB have discussed as being important for speed

Dude, if our competition for #2 receiver next year is between Davis, Shakir, and Sherfield all I can say is that Beane isn't paying attention to what's going on offensively. Don't get me wrong, I think Sherfield is a totally reasonable pickup by Beane for $1.77M as a guy who may be a step up from Kumerow as the #5 WR who must contribute on ST and can maybe do a better job actually playing WR in case of injuries, or see the field as a downfield blocker. Sherfield couldn't crack the lineup in AZ or SF. Now I'll grant that in AZ, he was behind Fitzgerald then Hopkins, Christian Kirk, their TE, and Andy Isabella in whom they invested a 2nd round pick. In SF, he was behind Deebo Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk and then Juan Jennings came on. But still, we're talking about wanting to improve our WR talent to compete with the best in the league, so....if he can't beat out 7th rounder Juan Jennings, or Andy Isabella who looks like a 2nd round bust right now, that looks like a bit of a "maybe" to hang your hat on as a potential #2. He had a reasonable year in Miami as the #3 WR behind two #1 WR who kept opposing DCs awake at night (Waddle and Hill), Good for Him. We didn't think McKenzie's 423 yds on 42 receptions and 64.5% catch % on 54% of the snaps were good enough production for #3, so I assume we wouldn't have thought Sherfield's 417 yds on 30 receptions and 58.8% catch % on 60% of the snaps is enough. As the saying goes "Maybes don't fly in September"

So in Astro's notebook, what is "PFA" as in his notes "None in PFA" "2 PFA" etc? If I'm understanding correctly, the numbers circled at each position represent the player's ranking on Astro & Associates "BuffaloFAMbase Big Board" at https://buffalofambase.com/2022/05/23/big-board-buffalofambase/ Which actually makes it a bit hard to interpret since that Big Board is apparently updated regularly. For example, it references a LB at #35, but currently LB Trenton Simpson is the closest LB at #34; it talks about a QB at #52, but #52 is currently LB Jack Campbell. The closest QB is Hendon Hooker, currently #57 etc etc.

yeah, I don’t know that guy’s sources, but, he had ‘em

Ryan Talbot put this out https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/04/nfl-draft-2023-buffalo-bills-top-30-visit-zoom-and-private-workout-tracker.html

I remember what you're talking about. It might have been a link to Dean Kindig ( @Astrobot) who no longer posts here? If I'm remembering correctly, it was Some High Level Stalking - tracking the visits Beane and his various FO team and scouts had made to different college campuses and games during the Fall College Football Season. Is that what you were looking for? No, if I'm correct, that's not what he's talking about. He's talking about something that actually tracked Beane's visits during the fall.

I guess you're correct that I did read like "completely dismissing him". I suppose the "conspiracy theory" tone of his filing ticked me off, along with what seems to be the implication that because Fred's Honda Civic or Aubrey's Audi avoided a collision, therefore a loaded truck should be able to do so or it's negligent driving/bad maintenance. Some of our relatives drove over-the-road and then county maintenance trucks for years, so we've heard lots of stories about what life looks like on that side of the steering wheel. I do understand @1ManRaid's point that it's the litigator's job to cast a wide net for initial discovery. Yeah, I didn't understand that part, unless the police at the scene did not consider him a "DUI suspect". I looked up Florida law and you're right as far as DUI: I guess what the lawyer is saying is that the truck driver wasn't considered a DUI suspect so the police didn't insist upon a blood sample at the scene, they asked and he declined? Because otherwise, you're right, he doesn't get to decline.

So as I understand it, the NFLPA ended their ride service with the rise of Uber and Lyft, but Uber and Lyft and taxis are all options. Something like 2/3 of NFL teams used to have "player protection" ride services, dunno if they're still operating. A number of sports agents, as I understand it, have a 24 hr concierge service for their clients where they call a toll free number and whatever they need, the concierge will shake a tailfeather to "make it so". My car insurance has roadside assistance. Call the number on the insurance card. So many options for a wealthy young person who wants to head out for a night of fun. That is a possibility. And if it's true that he declined to provide police with a blood sample, that's sketch. I can't disagree, I'm just saying that the fact that other vehicles avoided Haskins while the truck didn't doesn't mean there's a problem with the truck or its driver, trucks having different physics and ergonomics.

It sounds as though they're trying to blame someone - anyone. I don't find it hard to believe that a handful of cars might manage to brake and avoid a pedestrian but the driver of a vehicle with less maneuverability and more mass/longer braking distance might not. Doesn't mean it's the dump truck driver's fault. When you're a truck driver and you know you have blind spots, you can't just swerve into another lane without risk of hitting another vehicle/losing control. Still a very sad ending to Haskins' life.

So to this point of more 3 LB sets, I made a post a bit ago looking back at the Bills defense of 2017 (pre-Edmunds), when our MLB was Preston Brown and our OLBs were Zo Alexander and Ramon Humber (then Matt Milano). The Bills defense was 18th on points that year, and I think both our DL and our secondary have been upgraded since then. The principal problem IIRC was they could either shut down the run, or the pass, but struggled against an offense proficient at both. Now, our DL has been reworked since then - DL that year was Shaq Lawson-Kyle Williams - Adolphus Washington - Jerry Hughes with Marcell Dareus in the mix for the first 5-6 games (and helpful in run D). I think Rousseau - Oliver or Phillips - Jones or Settle - Epenesa is better, and adding in Von Miller cinches the clinch. But, if they play more base, and put Bernard at OLB 1) that takes Johnson off the field, and he's good enough that's probably a downgrade 2) who do you see at MLB? I'm not sure what you mean NFL.com (crappy as well)? I will say this: I dunno about NFL.com's grades or their little projection para, but the actual scouting report which is written by Zierlein - when I come back to a scouting report after a guy's been in the pros a couple years and re-read it, I find myself nodding my head.

If you want a peak at Spector, hit the 4Q of the Week 5 Pitt game, we were up big and they called off the dogs.

According to Spotrac, Jordan Phillips is getting $3M this season It's not straightforward to figure, because it is incentivized and those have to be divvied into Likely to be Earned (which count against the cap) and Not Likely to be Earned (which count against next year's cap if they're earned) But No Way is he getting $750k plus incentives - vet minimum salary for a 9 or 10 yr player is $1.065M, and the NFLPA would not allow a player to be paid a lower salary than that. It looks like Phillips is getting $1.805M salary (well above vet min), $500k signing, $100k workout, plus $35k/game active roster bonus and from $200 up to $850k for sacks. So at a minimum, Phillips gets $2.4M (salary + signing bonus + workout bonus), but the NFL considers him likely to get 11 games x $35k per game or $385k roster bonus and $200k sack bonus for 3 sacks "likely to be earned". So $2.985M if you wanna be picky. Rounds to $3.0M TBH Spotrac has a note about his sack bonuses being "noncumulative" which I don't understand - I think it means he doesn't get to add up the sack bonuses so he doesn't get a maximum of $1.65M in sack bonuses if he gets 8 sacks, but I'm not sure. That would explain the initial confusion between a report that Phillips got "up to" $4.7M, vs. the contract that's in Spotrac. That's not $750k plus incentives. That's $2.4M plus incentives, and the NFL considers $600k of the incentives for active roster and for sacks "likely to be earned", so they count in his cap.

I'm certainly not gonna step into a vortex about how many posters on this board act or a straw man about "scrubs vs Gods". I'm only concerned with discussing the contention made that KC has "worse talent" or that the Bills had "better/more" offensive weapons. If you reference my previous post, it seems pretty clear that KC had more depth contributing at RB and more pass-catching from an RB (Singletary was #5 in the league for drop %). Then there's the fact that Juju SS led his team in receptions and yards in his 2nd year (111 receptions, 1426 yds) after a 917 yd, 58 reception rookie tour. So he's been productive with 2 QB and 2 OCs in 2 different schemes at this point. Davis was certainly was given a lot of opportunity to contribute after being limited in his opportunities his first 2 seasons, but while personally, I would hardly call him a scrub or say he isn't a decent #2 WR, I would have to say that in terms of productivity Smith-Schuster has certainly got the edge, and I think part of that is better route running and better hands. That brings us to McKenzie vs MVS - and I have to say, I think KC overpaid for MVS and didn't get the ROI they expected, but again - MVS production in KC last season was very consistent with his previous production in GB, it's not like he hadn't put up similar numbers for different OCs and a different QB. While, given more opportunity, McKenzie had more production - but not what was hoped for. I think it would be pretty hard to argue a higher degree of talent there vs. MVS. I would never deny that Reid has become a strong offensive mind in the game, whereas Dorsey is just putting on his big boy britches and hasn't yet shown that they fit. But I think it's easy to conflate 3 separate things - talent, scheme, and execution (across the offense, not just one player). I saw players schemed open and not thrown to a good bit last season in Dorsey's scheme, so I don't think it's so simple as saying Oh Reid schemes those guys open and Dorsey doesn't. I also saw open guys targeted who muffed it for us - Singletary is damned close to leading the league in drop %, Davis and McKenzie are right up there. Seems to me that's on them, not on the scheme.

? Phillips contract is $2.79M plus incentives, of which enough are "likely to be earned" to make it a $3M contract I'm not sure where you're getting 750k plus incentives, that would be way below vet minimum salary for a player of his tenure. So Phillips got $4.8M last season and $3M this season, which likely reflects the "efficient FA market" weighing in on his value and while it's far from vet minimum (~3x higher), it agree with the point that injuries and production do influence FA value - - which kind of loops back to the point that, while not perfect, what a player is offered in FA is a reflection of how 32 GMs in the league perceive their productivity.

Well, if you look at the stats at Pro Football Reference, the leader in drops is Zay Jones with 13, followed by Amari Cooper with 12 and Ja'mar Chase with 11, then Austin Ekeler, Courtland Sutton, Gerald Everett, Deebo Samuel, Gabe Davis, and Romeo Dobbs all at 9. Right on their heels would be Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Stefon Diggs with 8. Which is why I think drop % is an important metric because a lot of those guys have a high # of drops due to having a high # of targets - but as a % of their targets it's not so bad.

Jordan Phillips isn't getting vet minimum. What you point out is true as a general principle, of course, but would you agree that a generally healthy, 27 yr old Juju Smith-Schuster was signed to a much higher FA deal than a generally healthy 28 yr old Isaiah McKenzie because the FA market evaluates SS as more talented than McKenzie?

It's certainly true that FA don't always offer the ROI the signing team hopes for, but overall seems to me that if a guy is being offered a multi-million multi year contract vs a 1 year, vet minimum contract, it's because talent evaluators around the league believe that one is more talented than another. Sort of the football version of the "efficient market"

Yes, he named Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers. His contention is that the Bills need a "3 level" WR who can both stretch the field vertically, run intermediate routes, and play in the slot. He thinks both those guys could contribute. I'm a bit concerned about Zay Flowers size - but mostly about the "frustrating drops come with the package" line in his scouting report https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zay-flowers/3200464c-4f57-7002-1160-832e9618f0fd So what is your argument that they have "worse talent"? What are your criteria for evaluating this?

Where is this stat that Davis was leading the league in drops? (Spoiler: according to this, he wasn't)

KC receivers last season >300 yds: Kelce (#3 in league for receptions, #8 for yards) Juju S-S (#24 for receptions, #24 for yards, signed for $8.5M/yr, $16M guaranteed) MVS (#93 for receptions, #55 for yards, $11M cap hit this year) Jerick McKinnon (#81 for receptions, #67 for yards) Justin Watson (#234 for receptions, #145 for yards) KC running backs last season ~ 300 yds or more: Isaiah Pacheco (#25 in yards, #33 in attempts) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (#66 for both) Jerick McKinnon (#68 for yards, #65 for attempts) Bills receivers last season >300 yds: Diggs (#4 for receptions, #5 for yards) Davis (#79 for receptions, #33 for yards) Knox (#81 for receptions, #80 for yards) McKenzie (#106 for receptions, #96 for yards, signed for vet minimum) Bills running backs last season >300 yds: Devin Singletary (#26 in yards, #30 in attempts) James Cook (#45 in yards, # 55 in attempts) I would like to understand and evaluate your argument that the Bills had better/more offensive weapons than the Chiefs last year, and still have better/more. Thanks. Both teams had a top quality #1 receiver - Kelce vs Diggs KC had better production from their #2 and #3 receivers - #24 and #55 for yards vs #33 and #80 for yards KC had better production from their #4 receiver - #67 for yards vs # 96 for yards Bills may have had a slight edge in their #2 back but KC had a deeper RB room with 2 quality #2s For FA, KC had a FA signed for 3 yr, $8.5M a year while the Bills had a FA signed for vet minimum and another for a VSB (vet salary benefit) contract if you want to consider Crowder. So the Market spoke pretty loud and clear there. Seems to me based upon data, that KC had the talent/production edge on offensive weapons last year and since SS was their only FA loss, the majority of the talent is still there.

Since I assume they host other players and positions as well, what is the point? How are they supposed to "hide interest" in different positions?

Again FWIW Greg Cosell, who watches a ton of film and seen a few drafts, and who knows enough to stay away from putting out Mock Drafts in public, thinks that at least 2 WR with talent sets that would match what the Bills need will be available at 27. Whether the Bills see them the same way is another question.

Fair point that top vet MLBs don't earn as much as top vet WR. For example, the top 12 WR contracts are all over $20k in AAV; the top 8 "Edge" contracts are over $20k; only the top 5 MLB are over $15k. I'm not quite sure how that folds into the prediction that "Campbell will be a bill for 4-5 years then walk". Depending upon the team's overall makeup and depth at different positions, it could be equally true that a 1st round pick who makes good at edge or WR would be a Bill for 4-5 years then be traded or tagged and traded, or let walk if they don't live up to expectations?

I can’t even figure out the point or argument you’re trying to make. You said the Ravens had money for OBJ but not Jackson. Ravens are reported to have offered Jackson a high money contract but without the full guarantees he wanted. The second fact is that the have a $32M franchise tag on Jackson - twice what OBJ reportedly has signed for Therefore your statement is disproved. WTF Josh Allen has to do with this, beats me. If Josh played out his 5th year option with no contract because the Bills offered something market-appropriate that he wouldn’t sign, then franchising him would have been on the table, but Josh employs agents and a more standard negotiating process