Beck Water

Hey, what's the allotted time interval for making a pick tonight? I oughta know but I don't and can't quickly find it.

I take your point that you were just repeating what you heard. I could be mistaken, but I think the counterpoint wasn't whether or not you said it, but just repeating info one hears without taking a little minute to check. I kinda see the point, though it can be tedious to verify stuff.

This. Not to you but to everyone else - teams watch film and learn to ignore the plays/players the team won't use. That's part of how Lamar Jackson got "solved", right? teams learned he would only throw between the hashes, he wouldn't take the sideline throws. Last year, the Bills couldn't run very well, and didn't have a guy who Josh Allen trusted to be on the same page and open for the short/intermediate slot routes vs. zone. So they could choke down on Diggs and Davis with no harms.

Notable is his Zierlein draft profile, which essentially describes him as a receiver. The reason "TE take time" is that they're asked to master the nuances of blocking technique and blocking assignments - which are NOT simple - as well as route trees and play design. I'm sure the Bills will ask him to block, but the smart money says the Bills indeed view him as a big slot.

Yeah, if you look at that kind of amusing vignette on the Bills website, he had the Cowboys (26) hat ready-to-go on top of the pile. Meanwhile, his buddy was hunting desperately for the Bills hat - I think they had no idea the Bills were that interested in him, but they had an idea the Cowboys were.

I think Beane loves him dual sport guys - -baseball/football for S and DB (both Hyde and Poyer were high-level baseball players in HS) -basketball/football for WR and TE One of the things that made Stevie Johnson so hard to jam on the line were his basketball moves. Beasley and McKenzie both played basketball - Beasley at 5'8" has video out there of him dunking, McKenzie claims he can dunk but I've seen no proof.

A pass from 10-20 yds is classed as an "intermediate" throw, so I'm not sure what point your data show. How many throws did Josh take, especially at the end of the season, that were 0-5 yds? And what was his on-target percentage - not catch %, where maybe the RB or receiver dug him out by reaching or going low, where he threw a ball the receiver could catch in stride? I'm sure there is a source for these data, but I don't have one.

I had the same thought. Would not surprise me if any "War Room" photos of Dorsey show deep holes under his eyes.

Um..if we're moving a piece (Oliver) to gain a piece, then who is our 3TDT opposite Phillips (who is good, but struggles to stay on the field)? That piece has to be replaced. DHop's 2023 salary is $19.4M, 2024 is $14.9. Last I looked, swapping a guy with a $10M salary for a guy with a $19.4M salary requires additional moves to be manageable. I promise, the 31 yr old Hopkins is not signing up to take a pay cut, so the way to make it "manageable" is to extend Mr 31 yr old, "I needed PED to heal from my last injury" for 4-5 years.

Exactly. In his 2018-2020 prime, Beasley was a 1D machine. 39, 37, 53 1D, falling off to 34 in 2021 with a corresponding fall-off in the Bills offense. Last season, McKenzie had 30, and not all from the slot. Look at Philly. His yardage totals aren't outstanding, but Goeddert has been a 1D MACHINE For them. 42 and 40 the last two seasons. Look at the Falcons. Pitt had 43 1D as a rookie, with the Ghost of Matt Ryan hurling the ball. The question isn't whether a strong route-running TE can contribute on a team without 2 great WR. Clearly they can. The question is whether Josh will target him.

Same here.

FWIW, Chris Simms, who may have watched a minute of film in his life, guessed him at 4.5. Yo! @Buffalo716! Put your scouting hat on, watch some Dalton Kincaid highlights, and give us your best guess.

What the hell games are you watching?

I think you can cross Hopkins off. I don't think Beane sees Hopkins as that "one splash move that will get us over the top", and even there - he didn't trade picks for Von Miller. Question: What contending teams do you know of who are paying top dollar to their QB and not one, but two, WR? Not teams that HAVE a great QB and two great WR like the Bengals, but teams that are PAYING them. That's the issue here. We're paying Josh, we're paying Diggs, we got to try to draft a great receiver or pluck an undiscovered FA gem off the depth chart

And yet, at times, it was so. It has been so with other receivers. When he came out, Josh actually struggled the most with accuracy on short passes, which fed into his natural desire to go for the "kill shot". One of the reason why our receivers don't get the YAC, historically, is because Josh won't take the underneath throw until he's absolutely certain he can't go deep (by which time coverage has caught up enough to tackle promptly), and even then he will make dangerous throws deep into coverage. He "got over" this and was absolutely surgical in some games early in the season - but then "reverted" or "regressed" late in the season. If it's true that he had to revert to his early-career lateral throwing motion vs. his now-preferred rotational motion due to the UCL tear, perhaps that explains it. BTW, what's your feeling now on PRP injections? IIRC a bit ago, you weren't at all a fan. I admit, it does seem a bit hoo-doo to me.

Part of it, to my eyes, was the role they had him in. Yes, he was running routes, but a lot of his routes were chip-and-release short routes - flat, pivot, angle, option return, "sloppy" return or reverse return, whatever ya call it. Those are the routes Allen historically does NOT want to take, with the exception of throwing to Beasley with whom he'd built that trust. Josh "got over it" and started to use these to good effect at times in 2021 and early 2022, then regressed mid-to-late last season. Was Dawson open on those routes? At times, WIDE open. At other times, I do think Knox still reads the defense wrong, or at least differently than Allen does, and isn't where Allen expects him to be. I think that was a problem with McKenzie and Shakir as well. What I saw worked out down the stretch, is that Brown played a bit better and needed less help so Knox was free to run more of a route tree. When he ran deeper routes Allen targeted him sometimes. He's still (I think) inconsistent in his ability to release against press man - as Cover1 points out, despite the "Rambo" rep he isn't necessarily very physical. I think Kincaid is different, because I think he'll be used more as a "big slot" than a conventional TE. So whatever the slot role was supposed to be with Crowder/McKenzie, I think that's where we'll see Kinkaid.

Chuck Pollock has Jumped the Shark: https://www.oleantimesherald.com/sports/what-were-bills-thinking-taking-a-tight-end/article_194ac0ad-52d5-5069-b417-471ba096d058.html Chuck? Chuck, is that you?

Thanks, Days. Latter led me to this, which has injury info on a number of prospects: https://fantasyinjuryteam.com/2023/04/11/2023-nfl-draft-injury-concerns/

On DT: The Bills currently have 8 or 9 DT on the roster....(counts) 8. I haven't been impressed by Ankou, Bryant etc. but they keep getting looks, in particular we keep bringing back Bryant. I know little about Cortez Broughton other than he was drafted by the Chargers and KC picked him up before the Bills signed him, or Kendal Vickers other than he played for Las Vegas. I think it's fair to say they're all pretty much career journeymen. I think we will probably extend DaQuan Jones. I think Beane has just been waiting for after the draft, he's said before that he likes to take things sequentially: FA and what contract renegotiations he needs to get through FA; then the draft; then extensions. Oliver is a puzzle to me. He flashes at time, then he disappears. He's not IMHO consistent enough as a 3TDT to merit a big extension, but you hate to see the Bills move on from 2 back-to-back 1st round picks for a 3rd round comp pick. I'm with you in being on the "Offense Flow", but I think Beane has telegraphed they will draft a DT if one they like falls to them. Frankly it wouldn't shock me if the next two picks were D and we pick up an OL or WR in the 5th or something. I don't think they're content with LB. Unless I'm mistaken, there's only 1 LB drafted so far.

I guess in defense of the a-hole ness, some people are just following along on social media these days, so they don't know when the network is on commercial break or has a delay.

OK, not worried so much about missing the bowls, but not testing at either day seems a bit troubling. Regarding cleared by multiple doctors - Just saying the Bills have been burnt by this in the past. We'll hope it's different now.

Is anyone else concerned that he missed the Rose Bowl and didn't complete the athletic tests at either the combine or his pro day due to a "back injury"?

Yeah, can we wait until the kid has done something in the NFL before we start pronouncing on nicknames for him? His nickname shall be....whatever he earns

Congratulations, take a bow!

I admit I'm not "in" on the nuances of Rodgers contract, but I noticed this intriguing little sentence on his Sportrac entry: "2023 Option Bonus: $58.3M (guaranteed, must be exercised between March 17, 2023 - Week 1, temporarily moved to 2024 in trade/restructure)" Rodgers has a $47M option bonus in 2024 as well. I don't think that option bonus is gonna stay in 2024. I think the Jets will renegotiate his contract, and I wish them Good Luck