Beck Water

Interesting approach! How does Hamlin affect your S assessment if he returns? One place where I differ is at WR; I view it as an area where it's difficult to get a true upgrade at the #1-3 position in FA because the position pays such a premium. In FA, one over-pays for aging talent. Thus, I view it as a priority to attempt to draft the best guy we can get our hands on. We haven't drafted a WR above round 4 in 6 years, and we badly need a talent infusion. Don't get me wrong, I like the Harty signing as a high ceiling/low floor shot at #4 and the Sherfield signing as a potential upgrade at #5 since, like Kumerow, he can play teams. But last season showed me we were far from set at #2 and #3, and our depth/development pipeline is currently nonexistent. Another place where I differ is at DL. We currently have 3 of last year's 4 DL rotation under contract. We don't have 2 3TDT of starting caliber on the roster, and unless we plan to extend Oliver, we will have 0 on the roster next season. So it seems like a fairly basic roster need that has yet to be filled. I don't agree entirely, but Ryan O'Halloran's TBN piece is pretty good: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/ryan-ohalloran-bills-have-stood-pat-on-defensive-line-in-free-agency-an-addition-is/article_a736556e-cbf8-11ed-ac35-2b92af8fa11c.html

It would be very odd if the Bills drafted him in the 3rd with no plans to develop him as a starter on D. Beane certainly sounded as though starting Bernard at MLB might be a consideration. And I repeat the question (to the multitudes, not just you) I asked above: Different language is used in the scouting reports, but how is this guy Daiyan Henley different from Terrel Bernard, except for 2 3/4" longer arms and a 0.05s faster 40 time?

I have had this thought for a while. I think when they were players themselves, both Beane and McDermott were undersized players who overachieved for their size. They have also seen the success of players like Kyle Williams. So I think they are both "it's the size of the fight in the dog, not the size of the dog in the fight" type talent evaluators. And there's something to that. I'm told on very good authority by a very big man that much more of football than fans think is mental, not physical. But in the big games, where both teams are very good and willing to play hard and have similar athleticism and skill, the "M" part of the old "F = MA" equation comes into play. IMO, the Bills OL and DL in the Superbowl years tended towards undersized great players, and was one factor behind the SB losses. I am concerned that Beane and McDermott overvalue smaller players. I freely admit that I do not follow college football, but when I read his draft report it has Edmunds-esque language. Help my understand how the Edmunds comparison is far from the truth: "Henley’s playing style can be described as more active than instinctive. His inconsistency in reading keys and anticipating the play flow is mitigated somewhat by his speed and talent to wrap and finish in space. He has excellent range and does a nice job of stepping downhill to challenge blockers and running lanes. There are some eye-catching production totals in the takeaway column and favorable physical elements to his game, but inefficient movement combined with recognition delays could push him toward a backup and core special teams role in the future."

Washington State is a small school? Asking....my knowledge of the college football pecking order is slim.

Just to point out here that I don't think it's a sure thing that Hamlin is going to play The Bills, I believe, have listed Lewis as a CB at this point vs. as a backup safety Mayden is the PS guy they hope may develop You're not gonna want to hear this, but pretty sure Zayne Anderson was signed as a ST guy. 0 snaps on defense, 60% and 69% on ST. ST is also primarily Neal's role That leaves Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, possibly Hamlin with an **, with maybe Lewis and Neal as "break glass in emergency" kind of choices Regarding Neal: as I understand it, the Bills core ST coverage/protection unit has been Tyrel Dodson, Tyler Matakevich, Reggie Gilliam, Siran Neal, Taiwan Jones, Jake Kumerow, and Jaquan Johnson. @GunnerBill correct me if I missed anyone. Johnson has signed with Vegas. Jones and Kumerow are still unsigned The Bills have signed Zayne Anderson and Trent Sherfield, both with a lot of ST experience, so possibly they are going to move on from Jones and Kumerow. I see Sherfield as a big upgrade on Kumerow because he's proven he can actually play WR vs Kumerow, who came to us with Rodger's endorsement but has disappointed. Anderson may actually have potential at Safety because he's young and could develop, vs. Jaquan Johnson who got his chance to play and, 'nuff said. So no, I don't think they're going to move on from more than half of their core ST coverage guys in one year. Neal isn't getting paid because the Bills regard him as so critical as a Dime back and backup safety, he's here because they regard him as a key part of their ST who actually can contribute on D when asked.

That's what I took out of McDermott's comments in the SI article I linked above - that maybe right now he's leaning "no", or at least if he's leaning "yes" he might decide to change his mind on the way in the door.

Well. As some know, I'm still salty about Boogie Basham when Creed Humphrey was on the board so I, too, see improvement at C and a long term plan there as a Strong Need. But Morse is still under contract for 2 more years, and the Bills seem to like Bates as a backup C and perhaps McGovern as a 3rd string. Bottom line, I'm with you, but I don't think the Bills have any plans to draft a C, at least not in the first 4 rounds.

You may disagree, but many think that signing Connor McGovern and Dave Edwards changed up our draft needs at IOL So one theory on the Danna and Holcomb coaching hires is that the Bills may intend to change how they play their safeties somewhat.

Intriguing thought. We were told our new safeties coach Joe Danna did some innovative things with the Texans That unit was pretty good. https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/houston-texans-joe-danna-buffalo-bills-hired-safeties-coach-demeco-ryans-josh-allen I'll keep looking for the piece I found, but the conclusion was that the Bills may be changing up their use of LB and S and that Joe Danna and Al Holcomb were brought in to facilitate those changes.

Possibly a replacement for Damar Hamlin or Jaquan Johnson We need depth. Also, a young player they could train up in their system and re-sign if he works out. Spotrac gave him a market value of $10M/yr - 3 years. $30M Did anyone else read McDermott's comments about supporting Damar Hamlin? https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/26/bills-sean-mcdermott-vows-total-support-damar-hamlin-comeback McDermott speaking as though Hamlin may not make up his mind one way or the other until just before the season, which means the team really needs other plans at Safety. Maybe this signing is a signal that Hamlin is leaning towards "no" at this time, or at least a season off.

He Wasn't Cut. He was a FA. He played 4 seasons with the Rams, and they didn't re-sign him, or, he didn't like the contract they offered or didn't want to stay on a re-building team.

And yet, the Rams won the 2021 superbowl with Rapp starting 17 games. Go Figgur how such a stupid team with such bad personnel evaluation that the "average fan" can do better pulled that off. Honestly, do you ever logically think through what you're posting here?

So....how does this guy differ from Terrel Bernard other than 2 3/4" more arm length and a 0.05 second faster 40-time? If we're gonna draft an undersize linebacker in the 2 or 3rd round....didn't we do that last season? https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terrel-bernard/32004245-5223-6424-136f-901f81674ee9 https://www.nfl.com/prospects/daiyan-henley/32004845-4e46-6212-4f0a-603906125b28 I got to admit I scratch my head a bit at one 6'1, 224 lb guy being described as an "Undersized sub-package nickel linebacker with special-teams value on the next level." while another 6'1", 225 lb guy gets described as "A rambunctious inside linebacker with good speed and toughness"

It's a good question, but I feel McDermott was more directly involved with the D his first couple years and tried to back off to build the impression of Frazier as an independent entity.

Where's DC Tom when you need him?

That's factually easy to disprove. Brown missed game 5, 7, and 11-15 in 2020. Gabe Davis got 49-74% of the snaps in games 1-4 (with Brown playing), 62% in game 6 (with Brown playing) and 47-60% of the snaps in games 8-10 (with Brown playing). Davis played 54,45, and 22% of the snaps in the 3 playoff games (with Brown playing) He played more, of course, when Brown was out - closer to 100% of the snaps. So yes, Davis got significant playing time as a rookie based upon him learning the offense, being a good blocker, and being able to run routes. Same thing in 2021 - Davis got more playing time when Sanders was injured late in the season, but he was not sitting, he was still seeing 30-50% of the snaps WITH Sanders active and playing.

No, I'm pointing out that it's credulous to believe that a victorious opponent will provide factual, unbiased analysis when speaking to the press after a game. He said what he said; whether it truly reflects his film study of Davis, and whether that film study truly reflects Davis capabilities over his 3 years, are different questions. But if you think that's what he's providing and you choose to take it at face value and reference it in your own evaluation of Davis, You do You. Some folks with more independence in thought and deed might choose to go to Next Gen Charts, particularly from previous years, and look at the actual routes run, or go to Cover1 and look at their various pieces on Davis. It's true that under Dorsey, Davis was running a limited route tree early in the season and that they likely "went to the well too often" on that play.

To be fair here, 1) We don't know how much talk about acquiring DHop comes from serious enquiries by the Bills themselves vs. pundits and fans. Beane has said many times that often when the Bills are reported to be interested in a player, it means there have been preliminary calls, "is this player actually available? what are your thoughts on a fair deal for him?" but it's clear there isn't gonna be a meeting of minds so that's all there is. 2) Beane did in fact mention needing to extend Gabe Davis (and Ed Oliver) in his combine presser when he talked about not re-signing Tremaine Edmunds. If you just posted an excerpt of the play you're talking about, that as the Steelers and it counted as a TD. Gabe caught it, the DB pulled it away, Gabe wrestled it back, TD.

I'd like to suggest Option 3: Patrick Peterson is talking trash and exaggerating for the purpose of talking trash. I think it is true that he knew what was coming on that INT to Gabe Davis in the EZ because it was a read/play the Bills and Josh had been leaning on too often in the red zone, but that was a terrible throw by Josh and if it had been on target, he might be talking differently.

Oh, wow, that's a pretty amazing number if so. I wonder how they define "catchable" though? Is it like drops, where a drop is defined only as a ball that can be caught with "ordinary effort", that falls within the frame from like, thighs to head or as far to the side as both arms can reach without turning/stretching? Do you know? Because guys who have played, announcers etc will say "that was a difficult catch but he needs to make that one" about balls that aren't scored as drops. And if "catchable" is defined the same way, it might include some balls that most of us would say "yeah, that was a contested catch, but he got his hands on it, he needs to seal that deal".

I don't want to replace Gabe Davis because of 2022. I do want to see him improve. But I also think it's time, and past time, to in fact utilize (not burn) a quality draft pick on improving the WR room. Our window is now. 4th and 5th round draft picks are usually drafted there because they need development. The Bills right now are, at WR, exactly where the 2008-2012 Russ Brandon/Buddy Nix GM years were at QB IMO. The last QB we spent a first round pick on, JP Losman in 2004, hadn't really worked out. Our 2007 3rd round pick, Trent Edwards, was arguably better but ultimately they both were busts. So Brandon and NIx dithered and hesitated, failed to pull the trigger, wasted 4 years on the fool's gold of a journeyman late-round pick from another team, then finally used a 1st round pick in the worst QB draft of several years before and after. It's not that there weren't quality QB they could have selected - TJ Graham in the 2012 3rd round 6 picks before Russ Wilson stands out, Kirk Cousins was also on the board at that time. But they were caught in the "paralysis of analysis" and didn't or couldn't act. OK, so WR are one of the highest paid positions in the league, and "draft and develop" is 100% the cap-savvy way to go. But the last two swings the Bills took - Zay Jones in the 2nd in 2017 and trading a 2018 3rd round pick for Kelvin Benjamin in 2017 - flubbed. So Beane decided to go the sure route and trade for an already-developed 5th round WR with his 1st, while turning over the Bargain Bin for 4th rounder Gabe Davis and 5th rounder Khalil Shakir. It's not that there haven't been some talented guys within reach - Amon Ra St Brown in the 2021 3rd, for example. We traded down to draft James Cook, could potentially have traded up a few slots to go after George Pickens in the 2022 2nd. The bottom line is, I think Beane under-values WR and OL because that's what he learned in Carolina, and is also caught in the "paralysis of analysis" not wanting to "burn" a pick on a top talent WR ho might crash and burn like Benjamin or Zay Jones when "there are guys who can help us in the later rounds". It pissed me off when Beane said "we don't want to suck bad enough to draft Jamar Chase" as though the alternatives are 5th overall pick or 4th/5th round players. I think it's a mistake. Invest in the offense. Invest in OL, invest in WR. You may be right, that Beane will "forget it" as far as using a high draft pick on a WR. But I think we need that talent and it's "using" a pick, not "burning" one.

My point was just there's some logistics to resolve there. That was said of Milano his rookie year. It will be interesting to see if Bernard comes to camp bigger and stronger.

Love the part about scheduling primetime games around a new QB leading to a dumpster fire then Hackett chiming in

Questions: What were the pre-season predictions for the Bills from this outfit last year at this time? And what was the consensus here?

Yeah, I honestly don't know what McDermott and Beane will do. I suppose I'm afraid of #1, which seems like a reprise of the Bad Old Days where we'd fail to re-sign the talent we drafted and developed and then use a high draft pick, possibly on a lesser player. I do think you missed a couple options. One is that some vets will be cut, request release, or be available for trade on reasonable deals, after the draft. Beane has alluded to this in his presser. I think Beane may have his eyes on a crafty AJ Klein-type vet or two who may be cut. I also think your option 2. is plausible. If he were really worthy of a 3rd round pick, Terell Bernard might given the chance to earn the job. I think Dodson didn't play well enough when given the chance last season, but it's not inconceivable the Bills have some idea on adjustments they could make to help him succeed. One issue about dime is, who do you take off the field? Normally, the MLB has the "green dot", calls the plays, and stays on the field on passing downs. But in the Bills case, I assume it's Milano you'd like to leave on the field in coverage. Interesting times. Anyway, thanks for the kind words!