Beck Water

LOL. I will survive. Seriously - we all have to remember that pre-draft and pre-season predictions are all based on the idea that a team's past performance predicts future actions. The Bills have gone defense with 2 of their top 3 picks 3 of the 5 years Beane has been here. They've used a first round pick on defense 4 of those 5 years, a 2nd round pick on defense 2 of the 4 years we've had one, and a 3rd round pick on defense 2 out of 5 years. Then, add in at this point in FA we appear to have more holes on D - MLB, DT, and DE if Miller isn't back to start the season - and the logic of pundit drafts makes sense. Now I may write impassioned posts about how it's time and past time to invest a quality pick in the WR position, but at the end of the day, It Is What It Is.

When you have a coach nicknamed "Riverboat Ron" for his aggressive playcalling speak about needing to rein McD in, That's Saying Something.

I mean, it is what it is. A bunch of these twitter guys love to court notoriety by throwing stuff at the wall and nodding knowingly when something sticks. And yes, if he's right, I'll be happy to show my receipts. But the more we hear, the less I think something will happen with the Bills. Beane likes to work like an Orca whale, he glides below the surface ripple-free and you hear nothing until BAM there it is. And the Bills make it clear to other GMs and agents that's a condition. Even the NFL insiders like Schefter and Rapaport say that the Bills are one of the hardest teams to get info on. That could be. My guess would be to some team with a lot of cap space to burn and no clear #1 receiver, where DHop can go and be The Man like he was with Watson. Chicago, Detroit, or the Panthers would be my 3 guesses, worth whatcha pay for 'em. I know who Tim Graham is, and I agree his word means more than ErieCountyBulls, but to be honest I don't think he's as connected to the team any more as a bunch of others and in truth - he has, in the not too distant past, shown the tendency to seek attention on Twitter.

You know, it's a really sad day when fans seem to worry about playing keep-away with a good player vs. getting the players who best suit our specific, Buffalo Bills team needs. Of all the arguments that can be made for making a move on DHop, "keeps him off the Chiefs" is total weak sauce. Fer cripes sake, the Chiefs went to last year's Superbowl with Kelce as their top receiver, Tiktok Boy as #2, and MVS/Hardman. In the game itself, Hardman DNP and MVS went down, and Mahomes rolled his shoulders and threw to Jerick McKinnon and Justin Watson (2 for 2, both 1D). Watson was a 5th round never-did-much from TB signed as a FA. McKinnon was a 30 yr old journeyman on his 3rd team. We have no evidence KC even particularly wants Hopkins, and if they do and don't acquire him, the Magic 8 Ball says "don't worry, we'll find someone"

I think Wes Welker would want to be counted as a top receiver - he was top 10 in the league for yards for a stretch of years, #2 at one point which is damned impressive from the slot. Brandon Cooks perhaps. And take the "maybe" off Edelman. As for Gronk, this is a drum I've been beating when some folks have made the argument that the Chiefs didn't have a #1 WR let alone a #1B. Leaving aside one's opinion of TikTok Boy (I think he's a solid 2 if not a 1B, my opinion) - Mahomes has Kelce. A top receiving TE who can run routes inside and out, counts. Gronkowski was a pioneer at that. For 5 of Brady's superbowl appearances (3 of his wins) he did indeed have Gronkowski, who was a top-10 receiver in YPG for 2 of those years and top-15 2 more. The thing is, NE offense with Brady was built on being a well-oiled machine fed by Tommy. I don't want to take away from the guys we've mentioned, who were great route runners with strong hands. But the scheme helped a lot.

I want to hear from the guy who spoke to Josh Allen's cousin at Walmart

I couldn't believe what you wrote about Kelce. OMG now I'm even more steamed about that guy, top-10 receiver year after year AND he costs them so little. 13th,9th,3th,15th,11th in receiving Y/G since Mahomes took over and damned near impossible to cover. He must be one of the best values on the planet, even though he is the #2 paid TE in AAV (behind Kittle) Yeah, that's my beef - Beane hasn't taken a shot at WR on Day 1 or 2 since he took over as GM, and it's one of the highest paid, highest value positions in the NFL, most worth drafting high in terms of ROI if he works out. The Bills need to take more shots! People critique Gabe Davis, but the Bills have gotten great value from him for a 4th. Sometimes guys are drafted higher because (wait for it) they're seen as more talented. Likewise people beef about the Bills not giving Shakir more playing time, but honestly, the Bills give players the playing time they earn, rookie or not, and it's not uncommon for a 5th round player to need some time to adjust to the pro game and master his assignments in a complex playbook. Guys usually aren't drafted in the 5th because they're fully developed and ready to roll into town and rumble.

I liked him and wanted him in a Bills uni BEFORE he was a Patriot

Well, we have typically gone into the season with 4 RB + a FB on the roster, but one of the RB has traditionally been Taiwan Jones whose primary role is ST. And with the addition of Trent Sherfield and Zane Anderson, we may be moving away from Jake Kumerow and Taiwan Jones. It's a good question - I would expect the Bills to draft a guy late and pick up 1-2 UDFA vs. spending a high pick. You can bet on it that Beane is paying zero attention to media pundit mock drafts. Like I said elsewhere, have any of the draft pundits ever been correct about what position the Bills will pick, much less who? I guess one or two got Josh Allen correct, but everyone knew we would draft a QB so that limited the choices - and most still had the "Right Josh" These guys have no accountability for being accurate or for scouting and choosing the best talent - their job is to generate clicks and reads. I think the math is simply "Bills coach says they need to run the ball better and Allen needs to run less therefore they need to draft an RB high"

I’m sorry about the loss of your mom. I’ve heard there’s some way to stop or cut down junk mail; does anyone know what that is?

So there’s an interesting tale here. As you say…Steve from Microsoft is not gonna call and tell you your computer has a virus. But it’s not always that easy. Are you familiar with Jim Browning? That’s the alias of a UK software engineer who started scam baiting and exposing fraudulent call centers after a relative of his was scammed. He uploads the scambaiting and the info he gathers to a Youtube channel, since 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Browning_(YouTuber) All very well and good - but in 2021, he was scammed himself, into deleting his own Youtube channel! He explains how he was had. The point being, even an expert who is savvy to the tactics employed can get played himself, given the correct approach.

While that’s certainly true overall, I think what some people are looking for is either a higher mean, or a smaller standard deviation. I think there are all kinds of great discussion points stemming off your thoughts here. The first is, what role was Gabe Davis asked to fill in this offense? Was he asked to be the chain mover guy, or was he asked to be the aggressive, “we’re taking a shot” route runner? Did Josh Allen essentially deflate his catch % by sending uncatchable balls thrown under duress or while Davis was double covered or had a DB in position to jump the route? I think there’s some of both, myself. I can remember some routes Davis ran that were clearly intended as “chain movers” where if he’s open, it should be a straightforward easy throw - and he dropped balls he should have caught at times. I can also remember some deep shots or throws into coverage where I thought “Geesh, Allen is doing his pal Davis no favors on the catch % there”, and where there was another receiver (Knox or McKenzie, sometimes Hines or Shakir) who was clearly intended to be the chain-mover - and Allen passed him up and sacrificed a 1st down in favor of a low % deep shot to Gabe. I don’t have access to the kind of stats that would let me comb out how common each situation was. Anyway, I think a fair portrayal of Davis’ contributions last season is probably a bit more complicated than looking at his targets and catches and yards on a per game basis and putting it all on him.

I think it’s simple Media Draft Pundit Math. McDermott has spoken about needing to improve our run game. Therefore the Bills must be drafting an RB because that’s how you improve your run game, so we’ll mock one to them.

It’s kind of interesting to look at Hill’s contract https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/tyreek-hill-19119/ Of his $120M/4 year, only $72M is guaranteed. In terms of cap hit, he cost Miami $6.5M last season, $12.83M this season, and $31M next season after which they could trade him and take a $22M cap hit.if they so choose. It kind of seems as though the Chiefs could have come up with something that would work for them if they wanted it to. I think they felt their offense leaning on Hill and Kelce had been “solved” a bit, and it was time for re-work.

The problem I have with this explanation (I’ll give it the benefit to call it explanation instead of excuse), is that we had the same explanation for Gabe in 2021: he had a early season ankle sprain and media members who attend practice like Sal Capaccio said it was visibly hindering him until late in the 2021 season. https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/gabriel-davis/10597 Same ankle, which he originally injured in the Ravens playoff game 2020. If Davis has had ankle injuries in September practices two years in a row that have hindered him (per the observation of knowledgeable practice observers and his GM) all season for two years in a row, maybe this is a chronic issue or at least an injury that is more likely than not to recur, and therefore we need to consider the player that he is when his ankle is injured, as representing the player we get. Now if somehow he can undergo off season rehab and strengthening or wear a brace or whatever such that the injury doesn’t recur, then sure, consider that off season film study and ankle rehab will help. But wouldn’t he have done that off-season in 2022?

That’s kind of one of the points of discussion here: who are those HC? People have tried to come up with lists, but afaik it’s short of 17

You’re making an entire post “about me” then end “let’s not make this about us”. 😂. Yeah, it’s weird, but you’re the one weirding. Hello, if you don’t find it fun to engage with me…just move on by like a sensible chap instead of clap- back condescension and issuing instructions. Too bad, there’s actually interesting stuff to discuss about Pederson and Rivera and play calling.

I don’t think Spotrac has the publicly reported details of his new contract quite right yet. He’s got $2M guaranteed, $1M salary $1M signing bonus split between this year and next. The salary is NBD if he’s cut provided someone picks him up, provided he has offset language in his contract because it’s less than league minimum for his years (which, we don’t know, he might have negotiated for no offset language)

Jeesh, did you have crab cakes for dinner or something? I responded to a post that was made yesterday, in which you didn’t seem to acknowledge that other guys called plays. Deal. If you don’t know whether or not Doug Pederson called plays you could research it a bit. Reich gave him credit for “taking play ideas from anyone” during the Eagles Superboal run (ie, he was calling the plays). He was his own OC for one year (spoiler didn’t work well) and now he’s calling plays for the Jags

Why the question marks after Pederson and Bowles? Ron Rivera ought to come in there somewhere. After all, he earned the nickname “Riverboat Ron” back in 2014 for that reason So it’s worth noting that McDermott’s lineage as a coach includes two mentors who, as HC, called plays

Aren’t there more examples making it more than one example. In addition to Andy Reid: Shaun McVay calls plays. Don’t think he’s given that up. Think they might have gone to two super bowls and won one. Doug Pederson calls plays. Think they might have won a Super Bowl or something with him calling I believe Zac Taylor calls plays for the Bengals Kyle Shanahan calls plays, though there’s some interesting stuff about that on 538 Didn’t Bill Belicheck used to call plays? Took him a long time to hand over the reins even to long time coordinators Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia. He might have had some success sometime Sirianni used to call plays. He handed off to Steichen I think midway through 2021, but with Steichen heading to the Colts, who knows? Seems to go more with offensive minded HC than defensive, but that’s partly because there are more of the former

They expect more out of Hines than ST contributions. They are paying him more than they ever paid Andre Roberts Question: when has one of these media pundits EVER been right about our draft picks?

I don't think that's how even Allen thinks. There might be some thinking like "gotta make a play, gotta make a play, Diggs doubled, don't like that shot to Knox, Dirty might get 4 yds, there's a hole goGoGO!" Then once he's going, he doesn't think "got the 1st SLIDE" he thinks "gotta get the most yards that I can"

I agree IIRC Jefferson's first two years under Zimmer and the Kubiaks, the Vikes offense was built around running the ball to set up the pass, and throwing it deep to Jefferson. I'm oversimplifying, obviously, but Jefferson had 15.9 and 15.0 yds/reception, top-10 in the league. Jefferson is very good at those routes and elite at tracking the ball and clinching the deal. But this past year, he started playing all the receiver positions including from the slot. Anyway, as you say, no guarantee that either Jefferson or Allen would have developed the same way if he were in B'lo. The accurate deep ball was NOT one of Allen's strengths in his first 2-3 years.

This is actually the reason I posted a look-back to 2017, when the Bills managed to field, not a great, but a middle-of-the-road defense with Preston Brown and Ramon Humber as their LB. Yeah, probably worth pointing out that Josh Allen ran what, a 4.76 40 time? But most players would, I think, tell you he plays faster than that time. Allen himself joked that he runs faster when people are trying to catch him and clobber him. Anyway, pajama Time is one thing, playing speed in cleats and pads is another.