Beck Water

I could be unique, but I feel like this thread is very Bad Juju.

I mean, I think every fan and every QB thinks that to some degree, right? We feel that as long as we have Josh Allen we've got a chance, right? Burrows will learn that his team has a window. It starts when he gets his 2nd contract. Boyd and Higgins are FA after this season, as is DJ Reader and Jonah Williams their LT. Hendrickson and Mixon FA in 2025. It's not that the window slams shut, but it gets smaller and harder to squirm through and depends a lot on being able to pluck talent from the later part of the draft and from lower-tier FA. He shouldn't feel like an underdog. He's the QB of the defending AFC champions, and he probably feels like he came one canceled game away from hosting this game.

Let's take this piece by piece. "We signed 2 WR off the street that no one else wanted...." True. We did this because we lost 2 WR to injury and had our backup plan poached on waivers, and late in the season, they had disproportionate value in an offense they already knew (ie, dude off the street who already knows our offense and has a comfort level with Josh >> possibly more talented dude off another team's PS. "and gave them a good amount of snaps" - True. Beasley got 31 snaps (42%), Brown got 21 snaps (28%). Shakir's snap count also increased to 30 (41%). In part this was because we had a starting WR out for the game due to injury. He's one of the premier Whipping Boys on TBD, but he has been getting ~57% of the snaps all season, so that had to be filled somehow. Brown and Beasley have been running around 12% of the snaps, so 30% more for Bease, 14% more for Brown, 12% more for Shakir = 56% of the snaps. That's what happens when injuries bite, Next Man Up. "Teams have figured out if you bracket Diggs the other weapons aren't consistently stepping up". Some truth. In the first half, no other receiver had more than 3 targets. Diggs had 7 receptions on 8 targets for 114 yds. Acting upon your premise, the Fins took him away in the 2nd half and he had 0 receptions on 1 target. Then the rest of the Bills receivers had 9 receptions on 16 targets for 132 yds,. The Bills still got some production in the run game (total 26 for 107 yds; 13 for 64 in the 1st half, 13 for 43 in the 2nd half. It's not as though our offense was completely shut down; 173 yds of offense in the 2nd half with Diggs being 'taken away' vs 275 yds WITH 2 interceptions in the first half. We got 10 first downs, we converted 4 of 8 3rd downs which is excellent, we scored 14 of our 34 points. I believe the Bills were being more conservative in the 2nd half after the Josh Allen strip sack gave the Fins a defensive strip-6 (with good reason!), but it's not as though our offense was shut down. "The offense is mostly just Josh Allen making magic happen" Again, some truth, but begs the question "is that because it's a system incapable of operating in any other way, or is it because Josh Allen is choosing to try to force magic to happen a little too much, instead of operating within the system?" Simms thinks so, others may think differently.

Keep in mind it was a "walkthrough" and we saw a scary change last week

Tell me more about this "wide margin"

Chris Simms is an Allen Homer and his "take" all season has been that the Bills offense is too dependent on Josh Allen to create plays in the passing game and to generate running offense. It follows he must believe that the Bills aren't running a capable offensive system that would support Josh playing within it. (they waffle a bit, but Erik Turner of Cover1 has expressed that same viewpoint at times) I find it interesting to compare and contrast his view with that of Kurt Warner, whose OBL interview a few weeks ago I summarized in a different post up thread (recommend giving it a listen) who explicitly states that he believes the Bills have a "good system with a lot of good solid concepts" (~7:45 in), and who basically seems to believe that Josh is feeling the need to play outside the system and create offense, when he could let the defense dictate where he goes with the ball and let the offense work for him. I will say that in general, when Josh has gone to the other weapons on the system, like Knox, McKenzie, Morris, Gilliam, Cook, Singletary - they have made those plays for him. Gilliam, Knox, Singletary, and Morris are all rocking catch % >70% and McKenzie and Cook are right around 65%. Shakir is still a "work in progress", but hopefully he's turning the corner with 3 receptions on 5 targets (though, c'mon man! on that drop) Anyway, so, there are different viewpoints on the Bills offense out there from pundits. I tend to believe Kurt Warner has forgotten more Ball than Chris Simms and Erik Turner will ever know, so I'd go with his assessment (also, because when I look at film where Josh has thrown picks, I usually see alternatives) but, YMMV. Oh, one other thing - the Bills run game has improved, independent of Josh Allen, the last 8 games. 1st 8 weeks: 124 rush ypg, Allen 49 rush ypg: 75 rush ypg other than Josh most recent 8 weeks: 146 rush ypg, Allen 38 rush YPG: 108 rush YPG other than Josh. It's not up to "league average" but, league average includes significant rush yard contributions from about 6 QB, enough to influence the average I think.

On the fumble machine thing, I put up data on this partly through the season where I characterized each fumble as QB/C exchange, strip sack, or fumble while running. At that time, the majority of Josh's fumbles were on QB-C exchange or strip sacks. So unless you have data that differs for the last 3-4 games, your characterization of Josh as a "fumble machine" when he runs has been wrong to date. That said, I don't like the way Josh holds the ball when he runs, either. TL;DR for what follows: the problem with an immensely physically talented QB like Josh who can actually make all these plays, is that you can't just get in his grill and yell "stop doing this, always do that instead" without limiting or removing his special play ability. Instead, it's about refining and molding his decision making, and that's much harder and takes more time. Kurt Warner did an interesting interview with Brown and Tasker where he talked about how as a QB, he had no option but to learn to read the D and make correct, fast decisions because he simply couldn't make the special, Unicorn plays Josh makes. He points out that as a HOF QB, he threw a lot of turnovers and that if you're an aggressive QB who pushes the ball down the field, he believes you will make more good plays than bad so turnovers don't bother him so much. That said, he talks about how he thinks it's hard to for a QB to live in a place where he has to make 15-20 special plays per game and that to be successful against the best defenses in the playoffs, a successful playoff QB has to be able to see and take the layups and maybe make 4-5 special plays per game. He says he believes the offense in Buffalo is a good solid system (that would support Josh playing "in system" more). He talks about how he'd like to see Josh play more in system in the red zone and not feel that he needs to run around and create so much. He acknowledges that he was NOT one of the guys who can do all the special stuff that Josh can do, so he doesn't fully understand that mindset, but he says that one reason Mahomes and Allen are so special is that they CAN do both things well (play in system as well as create outside the system) and acknowledges that it must be a hard thing to balance out when you're used to making so many big plays. I know some here don't like Kurt Warner's QB Confidential pieces on Josh but I think it's a fascinating listen. My impression is that Daboll had no fear of lighting into Josh and setting him straight on anything. They had a relationship built from the ground up, when Josh was coming into the league and depending upon his coaches to help him develop. Daboll had the carrots, and Daboll had the sticks. Now Josh is an established star, and he basically spoke up for Dorsey and got him the job so Dorsey is, to some extent, dependent upon Josh's good will. We can kind of see that Dorsey is "low man on the (coaching) totum pole in that McDermott stuck him with John Butler, the DB coach, as his "Passing Game Coordinator" and Joe Brady as his QB coach then Mike Shula as "Senior Offensive Assistant". Joe Brady is a great X's and O's guy, but outside of the backup QB Josh no longer has a real QB coach on the sideline with him who can coach QB vision or technique if something is getting away from him. And while Daboll was unquestionably "running the show" by his 3rd year, I think Dorsey is running "Offense by Committee" and feeling his way. Bottom line, I think the offense lacks a "single voice" and possibly lacks someone who feels like they have the clout to set Josh straight. And I hope that's a problem they solve in the off-season because we have Russ Wilson as the shining example of what happens when an undoubted QB talent grows beyond being coachable. I do think that Dorsey is overall feeling his way successfully. Josh has said things in interviews about realizing that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field and see things the same way or it doesn't work, and that it took some doing but they're getting to a good place now (this was weeks ago, around the Thurs. nite games).

Part of it is our OL. The Bills O kind of lives in 11 personnel - not to the same extent the D lives in nickel, but it's something like 72% (anyone got stats, especially individual game stats, please Bring 'Em). This season, Singletary and Knox have been kept in to block - a lot- while 2 or 3 of the WR run deep or deep intermediate routes. McKenzie is often an immediate checkdown option in the flat, sometimes he runs a deep crosser where he's a threat because of his speed. Knox (more often) and Singletary (less often) chip then release onto a route, but it's of necessity a shallow route. That workflow limits the route trees those latter 2 can run. IMHO the #1 thing the Bills could do in the off season is invest significant resources in improving the OL. If we could actually block 4 DL or 4 DL and a LB with hat-on-hat, and use Knox in routes which he showed last season he has the skill set to run, that would help a great deal. Morris, IMHO, is also underutilized as a receiver where I've been impressed at times when I've seen him. That release on the route where he scored the TD was Sick.

I have a healthy "ignore" file now. Neat, sweet, can't be beat. Preserves me from the temptation to respond to a troll (or a poster who is not a troll but psychologically unable to acknowledge a valid counterpoint). Greatly improves the board experience, 4 of 4 stars, highly recommend.

Being able to run a screen well would be a very helpful alternative against the cover0 blitz It would also open a lot of things up for us. I'm not sure why the Bills are so inept at them - on an early thread it was suggested that one reason they don't work well is because of how defenses play the run threat Josh presents.

That's the "party line", but I'm not sure it's correct. Part of that is because of Allen's known tendencies, teams know they can choke down on the guys who are past the sticks and pay a cursory nod to the shallow guys. For example, on the play where Josh threw to Beasley who was closely covered by 1 defender and had 2 others in the vicinity - on the opposite side of the field, Dawson Knox ran a route that effectively picked the defender off Diggs and left him totally open for a while before the defender who had him closed the gap. Romo even commented during the broadcast that Allen has Diggs wide open on the opposite side of the field. On the deep INT to Brown, I believe he was the only receiver on the field as the Bills put a heavy set on the field against what Miami showed as a cover 0 blitz. But then when they dropped, the Bills two TE and Gilliam broke out into routes. There were crossers at two levels by Morris and Knox, who was drawing the attention and leaving Morris wide open with a passing lane to him, as well as Gilliam running up the sideline and carrying 2 defenders with him. People here are "oh, Dorsey should give Allen checkdowns" "Dorsey should scheme guys open", usually when Allen throws a pick, there is an alternative open, Allen just doesn't choose to take it.

I dunno where the Burrows lack of respect comes from, but it should be noted that while he's not a major contributor to the Bengals running game, he's far from a statue. He has 5 rushing TDs this year He mostly runs to extend plays, but just when the D mistakes him for a guy who takes the LOS for the Berlin wall, he will scamper across it for a first down. I can't quickly turn up the data on 1Ds, but his 5 runs vs. KC in the AFCCG last year contributed to their win and his willingness to run contributed to their W against KC this year as well. The Bills have to contain him on 3D if they can't get him down.

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/articles/lesean-mccoy-bills-fans-playoffs If anyone wants to revisit. It's really touching.

Are they trying to bring in Rodgers? 'Cuz if that works, then maybe Otherwise, poor Mike White and whoever else sits in their QB room.

He went hard, including in 2017 when we had very little around him. He did everything he possibly could to play on an injured ankle in the playoffs and give us our best chance. Yeah, he initially pouted when he was traded, but I can't blame him for that. You have to understand that in Philly from his 2nd year on, he WAS the franchise. The offense was designed and built around his skill set, not the skill set of the QB. In a very real way that was "his team" So being traded totally blindsided him. He didn't see it coming, and Philly apparently didn't talk to him at all about it before it went down (which I think most decent teams at least try to do, especially for their big stars - it wasn't a shock to Alex Smith to get slung out the door to Washington, he knew it was coming). And of course, for a grown-ass man who's a millionaire and can control every other aspect of his life, to have no say over where he works, has got to be harsh to deal with. You can say it's a known aspect of the business which makes them their money, but the reality is still hard to take. But he regrouped and recovered, went hard, by all accounts was a great teammate, and never said a harsh word about Buffalo in the press.

Thanks. The principle seems very straightforward. Here's what I don't get from that explanation: is it something that you (or they) could give me a database and a formula and I could calculate for myself, just based on down and distance and so forth? Or is it a "Frankenstat" like DVOA where the previous record of the specific opponent we're facing, our previous record etc etc all play into it or worse yet, "total QBR" where it's calculated with so many lines of code no one can explain exactly what goes into it or what it means?

Poyer's not just a good teammate, he's a DAWG. Epitomizes the "Gladiator Mindset" and we got a little peek at what he goes through to get on the field in that "Jordan Poyer Contrast Treatment" card you could see above Damar. About Hyde, though, you'd need to know when he told McCoy that. It could have been just before his practice window opened. Unless it was recent, I wouldn't get excited over it; Hyde has been open all along that it's not up to him, but rather up to the doctors.

Can you explain EPA in detail, please? How has it fared as a predictive model in the last, oh, 3-5 championships? Has the team whose QB had the highest EPA won?

You've done a very workmanlike job of laying out your arguments In the end, though, I don't buy it. I think we've mostly gotten away with a negative turnover differential against not-very-good teams like the Rams and Bears, or incomplete teams like the Dolphins we just faced. Against a playoff team like the Vikings, it bit us in the ass to turn the ball over 4x vs 2 takeaways. Against a top-tier D like the Jets, we couldn't generate enough points to overcome it. I think it's something we need to address, particularly when we're in our own territory and a strip-sack can mean 6 points in a couple of plays.

Am I misremembering, or does it seem there was some kind of scuffle at the end. Was that why? As far as we know. Wouldn't bet on that not having happened during one or another sack/tackle

I hadn't thought about it, but it's a significant point that the Bills don't have anyone near to the size and speed of Tee Higgins on their practice squad, so yeah, that's an immediate need that Gentry can't fill. You may be onto something as far as Higgins. But the other guy is a DT so. The other thing about Patmon is that in principle, he could be a faster Isaiah Hodgins type we could develop. He spent his rookie year on IR, so this past season was his first practices.

Of course it was intentional

Josh has not lacked viable options to check down On the Beasley INT: He had Diggs open on the opposite side of the field, only about 3-4 yds beyond the LOS but with enough room to gain at least 5-6 yds and quite likely more (being Diggs) if Josh had thrown it promptly. (I put up a screen shot of this elsewhere). It was 2nd and 10. On the John Brown deep shot on 1st and 10, Josh had Morris over the middle wide open. The passing lane may be tricky, though I think Morris comes into one in a few steps. But Josh has made up his mind. There's another receiver going out as well (you can see his feet) not sure who that is or whether he was open. Edit: here's a 2nd clip as the play is developing, you can see Singletary has slipped out to serve as a checkdown option and Morris is moving into a passing lane. Edit 2: and here's an all-22-ish view of the play. It was actually a fairly cool play design making use of the diverse skill sets on the Bills receivers. The Bills showed a max-protect/heavy look with 22 personnel (John Brown as the only receiver, Gilliam, Morris, and Knox). Then they sent Gilliam and Knox out on 'intermediate' routes while Brown scooted deep, and Morris ran the shallow crosser as a checkdown option. You can't quite see it yet but Singletary leaks out as a checkdown option as well. The bottom line is Josh had all kinds of options.

Dunno. Think it's true we do less trickery dickery We had that Knox under center play vs. the Jets in December, that saw CJ Mosely doing his "I believe I can fly!" routine