Beck Water

I actually think you're totally nuts. We need (IMO) better passing plays and better integration of the run and pass game. When Roman was in B'lo, the fundamental design of his passing game and how it integrated (or didn't) with the run game was criticized, both by some knowledgeable posters here and by some knowledgable pundits, like former NFL QB type. The comment was that what was happening in the pocket didn't align with what was happening downfield. Roman has resigned, been fired, whatever, after 4, 2, and 4 seasons. In Buffalo, at least, there were intimations that he had a big ego, refused to accept input from anyone else, and insisted that the game plan be his and his alone. He would be "interesting" in the style of the curse "may you live in interesting times"

Can I say I think you're both right? Gunner right: Roman is the best run game coordinator in football and has created a system in which players like Kap, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson flourish Chicago Bears should be on the phone Lamar in a pass-heavy spread offense will not work as well. He needs a coordinator who will design confusion into the run plays C. Biscuit right: Roman's system does seem to have an expiry where other teams start to "solve" it after 2-3 years, and it doesn't seem to evolve (enough) Lamar has not evolved that much, as a passer (not mentioned, but true: when Roman was in B'lo, pundits who know something questioned the design of the passing game - may be true with Ravens)

I did NOT see this coming. IMHO they might be pointing a finger at the wrong side of the ball there, although, I guess since they fired Wink last season and he helped take the Giants to the playoffs that might be a hard mistake to admit.

Yes 😀 When the Bills pass rush works, it works because we're getting consistent pressure up the middle as well as from the ends. The Bills D, if you haven't figure it out, is kind of weird. It manages to be a top D as far as points and yards, year after year. 3 out of the last years now. At the same time, we seldom send players to the Pro Bowl or have them recognized as All-Pro. It's sort of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" creation. It's kind of like a boa constrictor, it gets in your way but you look at it and think it's just a snake and it kind of has a small mouth - what can it do to you? Then you get to the end of the game, and find that it's wrapped around your ribs 3 times and the jaws are coming down over your head. A distressing number of the points our D has given up were the result of offensive turnovers that put the D in a horrid position.

Hmmm, well. This is an open message board. Anyone can make an account - all you need is an IP address and an email account, which, with gmail etc is "dime a dozen" now a days. And, with the rise of mobile posting and inexpensive VPN, it's easy to post from multiple IP addresses. So what, exactly, do you think that banning a troll accomplishes from the mods' POV? It's like a hydra, you cut off one head, and one or more heads can emerge, which can be done in a way that takes time to identify. That means from one POV, it's easier to keep the trolls in known identities and monitor them. It's also (in theory) easier for the rest of the board to "see and avoid" Which returns us to the question "why do people feed the trolls? 🤷‍♂️" Or for that matter, the guys who may or may not be trolls, but have a knee-jerk negative reaction to everything and couldn't acknowledge a mistake or a valid counter-argument if it came with a brass band and a burst of confetti? Why do they?

What's Arians got to do with it?

Escape Goat

A bit of contact and a tug on the jersey, sure. Those are so common that WR practice running routes and releasing while dragging tires. I don't like to see the WR arms being held or waist being wrapped up before the ball gets there.

I think Beasley needed to sell it more by making a hands catch (so it's clearer if his hand is being held) and by fighting hard to come back to the ball. I really don't like the "let players play" thing where it comes to WR being mugged all game. For one thing, IME it seldom lasts all game, but instead gets called selectively at a really influential time when the degree of it passes some invisible line known best to the refs and not discernible to the players.

Mickey, I hear what you're saying, but I think it's a fair point in my follow-up posts, that several of the top QB in the playoffs like Mahomes, Burrow Cousins - who are certainly calculated risk-takers - do seem to throw a lower INT % and to protect the ball a bit better when sacked. And Allen himself fumbled less the two previous years and especially in 2020, threw for more yards and 4 fewer INT, so we know it's actually possible for him, while putting up sky high numbers. Are you trying to argue that no improvement is possible or should be expected, or that the choice is binary between Allen's current turnover picture or becomingTrent Dilfer? Because I think data contradict this.

Shouldn't that be DPI since he was hindering the receiver after the ball was in the air but before it arrived? I struggle with understanding these distinctions, so I could be mistaken. You're welcome, and when I was doing the breakdown I was cooking right along and it didn't register to me that the lateral had actually been scored as an "aborted snap". So thanks in return for getting me to take a 2nd look at that. There's probably this kind of distinction in one of those NFL stats services one must subscribe to and I've been too cheap to shell out for. But I'm not sure that's entirely fair to the WR since a number of times when there's a tip from the WR, the WR is trying kinda desperately to make a play on a ball that's too high. Also, look at the Diggs 1D catch where the ball went right over Shakir's outstretched finger tips. If Shakir had jumped, he might well have tipped it for a pick - and is that on him, or on a route design that created confusion by putting him in front of Diggs at the same time, with spacing that created ambiguity?

Interestingly, that scored as an "aborted snap", which seems strange now that I think of it. Anyway, the play looked to me like it was supposed to be an option between a handoff on the sweep to McKenzie (which didn't occur) or a screen to the L (McKenzie said this, McDermott said "you have to understand what we were actually trying to accomplish there") Josh improvised the pitch as an option when the screen was blown up (Allen actually said this) It's Josh Allen at QB and McKenzie should have been ready for "anything to happen" until the whistle blew, but it's not like the pitch was designed into the play. Unless of course, you wanna disagree with Allen, McDermott, and McKenzie about the play.

Just so we're clear, that's INTs and fumbles, not INTs. And a bunch of those are weird - for example, all the aborted snaps this season. If you look at number of INTs, strangely enough there are a bunch of top QB who are in the playoffs right up there. Prescott, Allen, Cousins, Burrow, Mahomes. Strangely enough, a lot of these are also the guys with the most passing attempts - Mahomes, Burrow, Cousins, Allen If we look at Int % to normalize for attempts, it gives a slightly different picture. Prescott is right up there with 3.5%. Cousins, Rodgers, Burrow, and Mahomes are lower, around 2 - 2.2%. Allen is a bit higher, at 2.5% Basically, if you're gonna run a relatively high risk passing attack, you're gonna have a few more INTs.

Um, No. Does not.

Actually "fumbles lost" is harder than one might think, or maybe I just don't know the right source for it. I was able to pull the cause of the fumble from box scores, so that wasn't too bad It's enough time and work I'm not inclined to do it for 8 or 10 guys, Sorry! So we'd need to look at overall sacks, then at strip sacks, and I'm sure there are data services that report this but I don't subscribe. It's on my list to look at my sports subscriptions and get more "bang for my buck" in terms of my personal enjoyment, so maybe I'll look into one of those since NFL+ seems to have no desire to fix their all-22. We can say a couple things though, using regular season stats. The 15 players with the most fumbles are all QB, and they're not all running guys, so I think it's a good guess that strip sacks are a common cause of QB fumbles. First is Justin Fields (16), second is Matt Ryan (15), Allen is 3rd (13 reg season), Trevor Lawrence 4th (12), Jalen Hurts 5th (9). Geno Smith, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers all tied with 8, Kirk Cousins one back with 7. Of those, Fields took a league leading 55 sacks, Cousins and Smith 46, Hurts and Herbert 38, Allen 33, Rodgers 32. I'm going to guess that most of Cousins, Smith, Herbert, and Rodgers fumbles were on sacks, since it's a problem to have as many fumbles on QB/C exchange as Allen had this year and they rarely run. Fields and Hurts, can't say anything without diving into the details since they run, A Lot. That would put Herbert 8/38, Rodgers 8/32 (assuming most of their fumbles are on sacks) Allen 7 reg. season strip sack fumbles/33 sacks. So maybe around the same rate as a handful of pretty good QB. Tua 6 fumbles on 21 sacks. Basically, one fumble on every 4-ish sacks. That said, it isn't inevitable. Daniel Jones has 6 fumbles on 44 sacks (probably less, since he ran a lot this year), Burrow 6 on 41 sacks, Cousins 7 fumbles/46 sacks, Geno Smith 8/46 - around 15%, or 1 fumble every 7 sacks. Mahomes is in between, 5 fumbles, 26 sacks - 0 lost which is pretty incredible for something that's supposed to be a 50/50 proposition. My bottom line, Allen's rate of fumbling on strip sacks is probably at the high end of a number of good QB, so there would be room for improvement with ball security there. In the previous 2 years, Allen has fumbled less - 2020 9x (6), 2021 8x (3). I think it would be a fairly good guess that a lot of the difference would be issues on the QB/C exchange, since without, say, 4 of those 5 fumbles he would be at 9 which would be in line with the previous 2 years. He took more sacks this year, 33 vs 26 in '20 and '21. Not sure if that reflects a trend away from taking off when he's pressured (I don't think so, but can't say for sure)/better defense at containing him, OR, if our OL is just giving up more pressures and sacks because Saffold and Brown just aren't very good in the pass pro. Hope this interests someone. Obviously, a change in procedure to maybe sneak in a little more QB/C exchange work with the 2nd and 3rd string guys could help, but it would have to be against a defender because I'm sure they're fine when they just practice against air. I think the main thing is if we want Josh to stand in the pocket and throw, we got to get him a better OL that can protect him and enable more of a run game.

He's saying "could be" and "I don't know" I'm personally on the 'Pay Poyer" train with my heart, but my head looks at the FA list plus the drafted players we need to work on signing, and shakes my head If we weren't already committed to another year of Hyde, it would be different.

That's such a strange play. Different analysts seem to have different ideas about what route Brown was running and where Josh should have put the ball for better success. I can't quite agree there. Beasley was being held. I posted a clip where you can see the DB's arm around the R side of Beasley's body and it's likely to be around the L side too, which is how he got a hand in there to deflect the ball. Now, you can say (and actually, I've said) that Beasley needed to work to come back to the ball to make the hold penalty clearer and maybe get the call. I don't know if his arm was being held down, although again - if it was, a receiver needs to fight to get his arm loose and either make the catch, or get the call. On the other hand, there were 3 defenders in the area "playing to the sticks" and also because Brown was in the same area (not sure whether that's a strange design or a route running mistake). On the opposite side of the field, Diggs was about 3 yds past the LOS and wide open. Seems to me that a throw to Diggs would have been the better decision - throw quickly while Diggs is open, and he was so open that he could have at least made it 3rd and short. Don't throw into that much traffic. But you have a point, that Josh made the throw because he trusts Beasley to either make the contested catch or break it up, and maybe that trust shouldn't be there.

We've had fans come here from other teams regularly, and have some good talk. They're usually a tad less pugnacious though

Heard a couple of posters here referring to Josh Allen as a "turnover machine" when he runs. Thought it might be of interest to look again at when and why Josh has fumbled this season. I did this earlier (forget when) but a number of games and fumbles have rolled since then. All data are from boxscores on Pro Football Reference Josh has fumbled in 10 of 17 games this season 16 total fumbles (6 fumbles lost) Aborted snap 5 (2) Sack 9 (4) Run 2 (0). The runs are short yardage; in one case Josh lost it on a shotgun snap, scooped it up and ran in for a TD, in the other it was a short run, fighting to avoid a sack. Strip sack is now the most common cause of fumble (more than half), as well as 4 of the 6 lost fumbles Aborted snap 2nd, with 1 of them appearing to be Josh's fault. This is much higher than usual and most likely have to do with 3rd string C or with injury to the C. Interestingly, 6 of the fumbles and 3 lost fumbles were against MIA (1 aborted snap, 5 sacks) Kudos to Josh because earlier in his career, he did fumble an alarming amount when he ran, but for the most part he seems to have gotten to grips with this problem (pun intended) - though I still don't like the way he holds the ball when he runs.

Oh Jesu, Jaur, I did NOT need that visual before bedtime. I'm fragile that way.

So if you're here to talk ball, be the bigger guy, let it roll off your back and show what you're here for. Otherwise you gotta see that posters like myself who are here to talk ball. look at your little jibs and put downs and understandably think you're here on an opposing fan board to start something vs. to share info. You mentioned that Burrow has a bunch of INTs off tipped balls. Allen does also, of course. Any feeling on how many of Burrow's 12 picks are off tips, and were they tipped at the line or in pass defense? I would say usually tipped at the line for Allen, though the WC game featured a pick that was deflected off the receiver's chest/defenders arm. This season, Allen went through a bunch of inexplicable, WTF? interceptions where Bills fans were "what are you DOING?" He had some inexplicable throws in the dirt, for example, and one was picked off on the GB goal line by Jaire Alexander; Allen said he was trying to throw it away but I don't think most people believe that since, from the GB3 Allen could easily hurl it through the back of the EZ. You probably heard some stuff that he tore his ulnar collateral ligament and was thought to need to miss 2-4 weeks; he played that week, but his play was off for a while, lower passing yards, lower completion %. Weather played a role as well - cold rain; snow; bitter cold and wind - but Allen has shown before he can play in weather, so some think the UCL was bothering him and still might, though to a lesser extent. Allen asserted that it didn't bother him during a game, but before the Miami game our OC Dorsey praised Allen for "getting to the point where he can do everything and make all the throws he needs to make" and it's really only the last couple games that the deep ball has re-appeared. There was a stretch week 11-14 where I don't think Allen completed more than a handful of passes more than 20 yds. Of course this coincided with some bad weather games as well so Who Knows? But the ol' Arm Cannon appears to be in good fettle right now.

Well, no, but you might ack that people interpreted you as they did, because of how you wrote it, not "LOL" at them. It's not a matter of my liking, after all, but of writing being how we convey ideas. Like when I write confusingly (which happens more often than I'd like) and people misinterpret I'm like "I could have phrased it better, this is what I meant" To put a little ball in here, I would agree they are both excellent, but very different QBs. You mentioned Allen fumbling. I haven't updated it but about 3/4 of the way through the season I went through and binned every fumble into 3 categories: 1) QB center exchange 2) sack 3) while running The finding was that very few of Allen's fumbles this season have been on runs (hope that continues, as he did have ball security issues as a runner earlier in his career). The largest number were on the QB center exchange, with strip sacks #2. The cause of the QB center exchange problems, were getting down to our 3rd string center in a couple of games, and also Morse (starter) trying to play through an elbow injury/come back a bit too soon. Hope this is sort of the content you came for.

It's this kind of thing. Whenever something is directed at you in the least little way, you one up on the personal attack. "little fella" "a few fragile ones like you" "if it hurts your feelings" blah blah, I'm not motivated to do the sort of research I used to but it's caught my eye because it's piling up. We've always welcomed fans of other teams who as the guidelines say "come here in the spirit of good sportsmanship and with the intent to exchange good dialog with Bills fans". I can't fault your responses to boyst 'cuz pugnacity is his schtick and "find what you bring", but it's otherwise getting a bit deep in here for "just here to talk ball". At least, when I walk into a room of strangers and want to establish my cred as someone who's here for the discussion the phrasing quoted above is not how I'd go on. It seems more of an "I want to get in your face and bump chests and establish I'm the big dog" kind of behavior JMO take it or leave it now back to talk ball.

Um... if you mean that Allen can throw the ball further than Burrow, then your statement "“I think Josh is an awesome player and would never say he is overrated even tho his only trait that he has over Burrow is rushing (he can throw it a mile)” does not make sense. This is getting to be piled a bit deep here.