Beck Water

I think the 2021/2022 version of Morse is a much better C than many here give him credit for, and the drop-off to Bates is bigger than people think. If there's one Beane draft choice that I'm still salty about, it's the choice to draft Boogie Basham in 2021 with Creed Humphrey on the board.

Maybe, but he needs some experience actually playing. What evidence supports this conclusion?

You could see it right here in the Williams thread. By me. They're not "all", but 4 out of 10 are same height or shorter. Bit heavier, but I do believe the S&C crew can fix that if Williams is willing to put in the work. Well yeah, but Beane also didn't say "we believe the answer IS in house", he said somewhat more waffling stuff like "the answer MAY BE in house."

I think many of us assumed that was a case of "how do you tell when a GM is prevaricating pre-draft?" Answer: "his lips move"

Edwards has also made a point that Kromer has everyone who doesn't play center, try every position on the OL. Edwards was competing with Rob Havenstein who has been pretty durn solid at RT, and Whitworth, on the Rams.

I Hear That. I thought Brown played better next to Williams in 2021 than next to Bates in 2022. Bobby Hart do do do do dodo Boby Hart do do do do dodo (tune of Baby Shark) I will go further, in the little snippets we have seen of Bates at OT my reaction has been "that's a plan where you lose your Hat....a Bad Plan"

Moreover making such a pronouncement would go against McDermott's mantra "nothing is given, everything is earned"

Everyone has a first try, and they don't always go well. Glad to know your first job, first work presentation, first everything, all went so fantastic that no one could critique them. The question is, when there's a second try, which direction will the trend be? Because of course, no one ever improves from their first time. Bernard was playing for Milano, who is such an easy player to fill in for that when vet AJ Klein tried it a bunch of folks here called him "the worst player I'd ever seen". And literally 4 games later, Klein was recognized as AFC defensive player of the week. He adapted some, the scheme adapted some, it worked. Complicating Bernard's outing was the fact that he was playing in front of backup safeties (Jacquan Johson and Hamlin). I can say "someone wasn't in the right spot covering who they shoulda been covering" but I can't necessarily tell you who that was. Milano didn't miss another game, so we didn't get a chance to see how that worked for Bernard. I do think he needs to get stronger and more powerful. But I think sensible people give a guy more than one chance before they count him out, (unless he does something outrageous like punch a ref or leave the field at halftime, which was not the case). Milano struggled with some injuries his first few years. Knock wood, last 2 years he's missed 1 game per season, plus a handful of other snaps (mostly in blowouts where he was pulled in the 4Q)

So who would you have preferred at that spot? Where did I say he would be behind Sherfield? Sherfield is #5. As I said, I didn't take the message "we see him more as an outside WR than slot" from what Beane said when we signed Harty. He said nice things about his ability to track the ball downfield, doesn't make him an outside WR. I defer to what you saw if you watched him in 2021, but I have questions about how he can release and separate from "sticky" coverage on a routine basis, I assume the highlights are gonna be the "ooohs" and "aaahs" plays, but they may not represent snap to snap.

I didn't take that from what Beane said at all - I agree they aren't looking at Harty as the primary slot, but traditionally #4 was the "gadget guy" - McKenzie's role prior to 2022, the Gadget guy who runs jet sweeps and reverses, played from the slot where he gets a free release, ran deep crossers. Outside deep threat - wouldn't you think he'd get jammed and held at 5'7", 170?

I'm thinking Sherfield is gonna be our #5, Kumerow replacement: 1) he can block downfield and in the backfield as a WR, 2) didn't he played the "personal protector" role for Miami? and despite the "butt fumble" kick in the EZ (not his fault) he did well. He's fast (4.45) despite being solid-looking. he might be able to play Gunner. We have 3 ST roles up for grabs (personal protector and 2 gunners) 3) short passes and YAC What I'm thinking is that this guy maybe competing with Davis, and would hopefully give us a good back up option for that outside guy. I think that ______, in terms of playing time, is going to be 65% Kincaid with a smattering of Shakir, Harty, and maybe Hines. But that's just my premature "crystal ball" here

I dunno about that. Historically, we rode into game day with 5 active WR and 2 active TE I think. 6 WR on the roster We've got Diggs, Davis, they paid Harty at a point where they expect him to be active, I think Sherfield will be active for ST and as a short route target with good RAC So the 5th WR will be a contest between Shakir and Shorter. We'll see I guess..... And then there's the point we may want to roll with 3 active TE and 1 less WR if we're viewing our new TE as a "big slot" At this point, I think he'll be a competition for game-day inactive with Shakir, and the 2nd year guy def. has an advantage. But as a big vertical threat, I really like the pick. "Steel sharpens steel".

I could be wrong here, but I feel that Frazier's defense worked like clockwork - literally, clockwork where each player was a carefully crafted part and all 11 parts had to work perfectly together for the D as a whole to be effective. I think it's very probable that with losing that 1 impact defender, we WILL see the D fall off, and it may be what it was in 2017 - maybe a middle-of-the-pack D that has to pick its poison more (stop the run, or stifle the pass) But in 2017 we still won enough games to make the playoffs, so there's that.

Maybe the Bills will hook him up with that eye hand dude Knox went to I have to say I feel Beane is trying to disprove my hypothesis that he's overly fond of acquiring "smurfs" at receiver

Me bad, I did miss your sarcasm I agree, I don't believe McDermott is looking for the prototypical shed linemen/blow up the run game "Thumper" at MLB.

I absolutely disagree, given the statements from Beane about the role they believe he can fill as a "big slot" who has some of the Beasley-like skills to find the gaps in zone coverage, but with a different body type. If that's what they expect, then even McKenzie level production of 42/420 yds and 5 TD would be a bit of a disappointment.

I kind of disagree with that. Ideally you want your draft picks from the 1st 3 rounds to contribute right away to offense or defense. On the other hand, the better the team, the less need for draft choices anywhere to contribute, and that's pretty clearly where we were with LB last season - we only needed 2, and bar injury, we had 'em. On the other hand, this surprises me a lot. What do you mean by "started"? 1 or 2 games? The whole season? There are a lot of 3rd rounders who show on a site like pro-football-reference as playing a lot of games, but AFAIK for many of them, that does mean "on special teams".. Harrison Phillips started 0 games for the Bills his 1st 2 seasons, and 3 games his 3rd season. He was a rotational player playing 35-40% of the snaps his first 3 years. He did play consistently every game as a rookie - that's not starting, but perhaps that's what you mean? I'm puzzled by how you define "started" (esp with regard to the surprising-to-me claim that 35% of the 3rd rounders "started last year". I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm thinking you must have a different usage than I do for "starter".

Who is an "actual MLB"? I made a post listing the top-10 compensated ILBs by AAV. According to the "efficient market" theory, the idea is top compensation tracks with how the NFL values these players, since no team is gonna queue up to pay an ILB the "big bucks". I listed their heights, weights, draft position, and draft grade by NFL.com. The finding was that 6'1" was within the average height of 6'2" +/- 2", which includes Tremaine Edmunds at 6'5" skewing it high. His weight was a little light - 228 vs average 235 (again including Tremaine Edmunds at 253 almost 20 lbs heavier than anyone else) 7 lbs of muscle gain doesn't seem outrageous in the NFL So....what do YOU define as an "Actual MLB" in the NFL, and what would be his characteristics?

I think you mis-heard him, I believe Beane said "we didn't have a 1st round grade on ALL of the WR drafted before us". I don't think Beane said they didn't have a 1st round grade on ANY of the WR taken before the Bills picked.

So there's a few obvious questions here: 1) even though these are all obviously first round picks, there's probably a need to normalize by playing time. In addition to time lost for injuries playing a role, the other players on the roster play a role - for example, OJ Howard was playing with Cameron Brate at TE, who was getting a larger share of the targets (77 vs 39). 2) once normalized for playing time, context matters. We all love to believe that 1st round = guaranteed success, but of course that's not true. Only about half of 1st round players develop into good NFL contributors (not stars - just good contributors) So for context, if you compare the production of 1st round WR in their 1st year, how does that match up? I'll give an example: 6 WR were drafted in the 1st round last year. 2 (Drake Londin, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave) had >70 receptions for >800 yds. Two (Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson) had moderate production (>30 receptions, >400 yds). One squibbed (Jameson Williams, 1 reception for 41 yds). 3) then of course, for the TE role, it's reasonable to ask "what role were these TE asked to play, and as receivers, who was throwing to them?" So I think you're gonna see more variation in receiving production at the TE position than at the WR position, depending upon the role (F vs Y TE) OK, for Kincaid, it seems to have been pretty clearly stated by Beane that they envision him as a "big slot". Then the question becomes, "what would be a good contribution from that position?" As a slot receiver last year, McKenzie's contribution of 42 receptions on 65 targets for 423 yds and 27 1st downs was pretty generally considered "not good enough". That's 28 yds and 2 1D per game. Beasley's final season in 2022 contributed 43 ypg and ~2 1D per game, and also represented a drop off for him. Overall in his Buffalo years, Beasley contributed 5 receptions/game on about 7 targets/g and 51 ypg and more like 2.6 1D per game. In Dallas, it was lower with 3 receptions/g on 4 targets per game, 32 ypg. The Bills picked this guy specifically because of his "elite" hands and reported ability to find the gaps in zone coverage. I think a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor. I think we'd like to see more Beasley-in-Dallas type production, 50 receptions, 540 yds. Of course, a lot depends upon how much he sees the field. Beasley was only on the field maybe 55% of the snaps overall during his time in Dallas, more like 65-70% in Buffalo.

I think this is a good observation. I don't even think we need to go back to Carolina - I think we can look at what Frazier/McDermott did in 2017 before they drafted Edmunds and when Milano was a rookie STer fighting his way into the lineup. And you're right, they mixed up the personnel at LB a lot more.

I didn't see you over in the other thread explaining who you thought WAS BPA when we picked Williams in Rd 3. DId I miss that? If you think Williams wasn't BPA at pick #91, how about you Stand and Deliver and explain who was, in your view?

The Steelers used to be talked about as "Linebacker U". It used to be talked about how they would look for athletically promising guys in the 4th-5th round, start them out playing ST, 2nd year they might back up the starter, 3rd year they play more and 4th year start. Of course, in the current NFL with a 4 year rookie contract, that means you get like 1.5 years of starting out of a guy and if he has a great season, he hits FA and prices himself out of your market. But anyway, someone has to play ST and outside of 3-4 of core ST players in addition to the specialists, the guys who play ST are the backups, which only makes sense.

In the 3rd round? I was looking, and picks 22-24, 26, 27 were defensive players. The two closest offensive picks were RB Devon Achane at 21 and RB Tank Bigsby at 25. WR pretty much went earlier in the round, and Tyjae Spears at 18. I agree, another 3rd round RB would have been 😬 for me.

So I looked Perry up - wow, he does sound intriguing. But the bit about "erratic hands" and "his drops and ordinary ball skills sap some of the excitement" would concern me. By Jones do you mean OT Dawand Jones?