Beck Water

It's certainly true that FA don't always offer the ROI the signing team hopes for, but overall seems to me that if a guy is being offered a multi-million multi year contract vs a 1 year, vet minimum contract, it's because talent evaluators around the league believe that one is more talented than another. Sort of the football version of the "efficient market"

Yes, he named Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers. His contention is that the Bills need a "3 level" WR who can both stretch the field vertically, run intermediate routes, and play in the slot. He thinks both those guys could contribute. I'm a bit concerned about Zay Flowers size - but mostly about the "frustrating drops come with the package" line in his scouting report https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zay-flowers/3200464c-4f57-7002-1160-832e9618f0fd So what is your argument that they have "worse talent"? What are your criteria for evaluating this?

Where is this stat that Davis was leading the league in drops? (Spoiler: according to this, he wasn't)

KC receivers last season >300 yds: Kelce (#3 in league for receptions, #8 for yards) Juju S-S (#24 for receptions, #24 for yards, signed for $8.5M/yr, $16M guaranteed) MVS (#93 for receptions, #55 for yards, $11M cap hit this year) Jerick McKinnon (#81 for receptions, #67 for yards) Justin Watson (#234 for receptions, #145 for yards) KC running backs last season ~ 300 yds or more: Isaiah Pacheco (#25 in yards, #33 in attempts) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (#66 for both) Jerick McKinnon (#68 for yards, #65 for attempts) Bills receivers last season >300 yds: Diggs (#4 for receptions, #5 for yards) Davis (#79 for receptions, #33 for yards) Knox (#81 for receptions, #80 for yards) McKenzie (#106 for receptions, #96 for yards, signed for vet minimum) Bills running backs last season >300 yds: Devin Singletary (#26 in yards, #30 in attempts) James Cook (#45 in yards, # 55 in attempts) I would like to understand and evaluate your argument that the Bills had better/more offensive weapons than the Chiefs last year, and still have better/more. Thanks. Both teams had a top quality #1 receiver - Kelce vs Diggs KC had better production from their #2 and #3 receivers - #24 and #55 for yards vs #33 and #80 for yards KC had better production from their #4 receiver - #67 for yards vs # 96 for yards Bills may have had a slight edge in their #2 back but KC had a deeper RB room with 2 quality #2s For FA, KC had a FA signed for 3 yr, $8.5M a year while the Bills had a FA signed for vet minimum and another for a VSB (vet salary benefit) contract if you want to consider Crowder. So the Market spoke pretty loud and clear there. Seems to me based upon data, that KC had the talent/production edge on offensive weapons last year and since SS was their only FA loss, the majority of the talent is still there.

Since I assume they host other players and positions as well, what is the point? How are they supposed to "hide interest" in different positions?

Again FWIW Greg Cosell, who watches a ton of film and seen a few drafts, and who knows enough to stay away from putting out Mock Drafts in public, thinks that at least 2 WR with talent sets that would match what the Bills need will be available at 27. Whether the Bills see them the same way is another question.

Fair point that top vet MLBs don't earn as much as top vet WR. For example, the top 12 WR contracts are all over $20k in AAV; the top 8 "Edge" contracts are over $20k; only the top 5 MLB are over $15k. I'm not quite sure how that folds into the prediction that "Campbell will be a bill for 4-5 years then walk". Depending upon the team's overall makeup and depth at different positions, it could be equally true that a 1st round pick who makes good at edge or WR would be a Bill for 4-5 years then be traded or tagged and traded, or let walk if they don't live up to expectations?

I can’t even figure out the point or argument you’re trying to make. You said the Ravens had money for OBJ but not Jackson. Ravens are reported to have offered Jackson a high money contract but without the full guarantees he wanted. The second fact is that the have a $32M franchise tag on Jackson - twice what OBJ reportedly has signed for Therefore your statement is disproved. WTF Josh Allen has to do with this, beats me. If Josh played out his 5th year option with no contract because the Bills offered something market-appropriate that he wouldn’t sign, then franchising him would have been on the table, but Josh employs agents and a more standard negotiating process

I heard it a little differently - that he doesn’t lift weights with his upper body. I expect he does functional strength training type stuff, which does build muscle but with more attention to strengthening small stabilizer muscles and maintaining flexibility

I'll put some tea leaves down to be read and explain my basis. I think Diggs got a bit out of control last season in demanding the ball at every opportunity. Evidence supporting this: 1) Isaiah McKenzie show, talking about being assigned to "baby sit" Diggs on the sideline and calm him down (I think this was after the Tenn game). Diggs wanted another TD (he already had 3, and the Bills won 41-7) 2) "mic'd up" film of Diggs approaching Knox on the sideline later in the season, 2nd MIA game I think. Knox has just made a good reception, Morris caught a TD earlier. Diggs comes up to Knox and wants recognition for drawing coverage and Knox thanks and praises him and says that arm-over Morris used to get a release for his TD, he must have been watching Diggs. Diggs says "tight ends need to cool off, I Need My Bag!". As he walks away, Beasley says "I'm lucky I got to touch that *****" (***** = ball, referring to his reception earlier in the game). Knox finished the game 6 receptions on 8 targets for 98 yds, Diggs 5 on 9 for 60. 3) Dorsey repeatedly talking in pressers about how the offense works better and players stay more engaged when they spread the ball around. Presser after the CLE game was one of these. In the CLE game, Knox and Davis had more targets and more receiving yards than Diggs (who was 4 of 5 for 48 yds). 4) IIRC after that game there were a lot of questions about how your top receiver only gets 5 targets. In the next game, McKenzie had 6 receptions on 10 targets for 96 yds. But also in that game, Diggs had 8 receptions on 15 targets for 70 yds and Josh appeared to be forcing the ball to him. 5) Josh talking about Case Keenum in the locker room and how Keenum helped him with suggestions on how to "handle some of the players" on the team. Keenum was Diggs QB during the "miracle in Minneapolis" playoff season. Is it excessive dot connecting? 🤷‍♂️ The dynamics of the WR room, in contrast to previous years, did not dampen or rein this in. -In 2021, Manny Sands was past his prime but it's hard to argue with 3 consecutive >1000 yd seasons and playing with Peyton Manning. If Sanders spoke, the room would listen. -In 2022, the most senior WR on the team was McKenzie, who had previously been a "bit player" and a "gadget guy". After McKenzie was signed to his first multi-year contract, Diggs tweeted about McKenzie "owing him money" so Diggs may have put in a word for him to get him signed. All signs point to Senior WR in 2023 could not influence Diggs if necessary. -Prior to 2022, Cole Beasley was in many ways Josh's "guy", the one he looked for when he was in trouble and needed 1Ds. Beasley had a significant role in helping Josh develop his skills to dissect defenses as a QB. If Josh chose to target Beasley in a clutch situation instead of Diggs, there was nothing to say about it. In 2022, Beasley was gone -I think it's significant that Davis and McKenzie reportedly went to Beane and lobbied for Beasley to be brought back at the end of the season. People think Beasley was brought in to replace McKenzie, but that's not what the snap counts say. I think the other Sr WR (Davis and McK) in the room may have lobbied for Beasley to be brought in because the dynamics in the room were out of whack and they were trying to fix it. I felt the whole season was a bit of a push-me-pull-you between Josh trying to get Diggs "his bag" vs Josh trying to execute the offense as Dorsey conceived it. This isn't necessarily selfishness on Diggs part - he was head and shoulders above every other WR on the team in skill and execution. So it's a fair argument that the best thing to do with the ball was get it to Diggs at every opportunity, as he was the most likely to run a great route, catch it, and secure the catch. I think the solution is to have another WR on the team who is closer to Diggs level - not the same skillset, but a different skillset - who is hard to argue against being a "go to" guy.

I think these are valid points, but the proof will be in the "pudding" on draft day. Replacing Isaiah McKenzie with Deonte Harty and Jake Kumerow with Trent Sherfield are reasonable moves with a potential "higher ceiling", and replacing Rodger Saffold with Connor McGovern and adding David Edwards are potential upgrades to pass pro, but none of these 4 moves count as significant upgrades. If this is part of an off-season plan that also includes adding significant offensive pieces in the draft, that will be great. If it's a token nod to the offense while drafting defense with our top 3 picks or even defense with 2/3 top picks, it's lip service. Beane talked about having to redo their "positional value" or some similar lingo. I think that means deciding how positional value factors into their draft board. At its best, it could be a depersonalized way of saying "we need to invest more on offense" vs. having a DC and OC pound the table and glare at each other. At worst, it could be used (consciously or not) as a way of reinforcing a defensive-minded HC personnel priorities.

The Bengals game was not the only game in which Diggs was directing visible unhappiness at not getting the ball at Josh Allen, both on and off the field.

I wonder what quality of financial advice Lamar receives? I'm sure he's not particularly spendthrift and has the smarts to head off shysters - but net present value is a challenging concept to convey

The thing is, I don't think the bit you quoted is actually true: "Roman's most impressive feat was devising an outside-the-box offense around quarterback Lamar Jackson, producing the NFL's most prolific offense in 2019. But Roman never came close to replicating that unpredictable and dominant attack." Roman didn't devise an outside-the-box offense for Lamar Jackson. He essentially had the same offense in San Francisco with Kaepernick and then in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor. The thing which made it different and for a while, more successful, in Baltimore, is that Lamar Jackson is a great athlete where Kapernick and Taylor are good - a better, more elusive runner; a better (compared to those guys) passer with a stronger arm. What limited Roman's offensive success was, first, that in his early years in the league Lamar was limited as a passer. Once enough film was out and the savvier DC's knew what throws he wouldn't attempt (or wouldn't succeed at) they could focus their defense. As Jackson improved in his passing (and multiple players and coaches have commented favorably on this), he started to be limited by Roman's passing offense, which isn't that well designed. Again, this is something that was commented upon back in 2015-2016 when Roman was in Buffalo. Finally, Roman's offense got "solved" by enough teams that it was no longer as successful, and he couldn't adapt. The Ravens made an interesting choice in hiring Todd Monken as OC. He oversaw a rush-heavy offense in Georgia, but previously a pass-heavy offense in Tampa Bay in 2018-2019. So he appears to be flexible and willing to adapt what he does to the talent he has on hand. I don't think that releasing Roman and hiring Monken indicates that the Ravens necessarily want to go in a different direction than Jackson. I think they decided that Roman had a chance to "shoot his shot" and it wasn't good enough to get them to the next level.

? They franchise tagged Jackson There are also reports that they offered him a very competitive contract financially, he just didn't like the terms (not 100% guaranteed)

I think it's very unlikely that any changes McDermott wants to implement would involve switching up to a 3-4 type D with a true NT. The kind of things we're more likely to see would be some of the stuff Cover1 put together on his Carolina D where he did things like double A gap blitzes or rolling the DE inside and having LB on the ends, some drop some rush but who? I do think Beane (and McDermott) over-value under-sized players. In HS and for McDermott, in college, they succeeded as players who were not as big or tall as some of their peers, and who just out-worked and out-competed them. The whole "not the size of the dog in the fight, size of the fight in the dog" trope is something they both personally lived and had some success with. And I do somewhat understand where they're coming from - there was a time when I thought the Bills were too much into the opposite strategy, like drafting and trying to develop players who had ideal measurables but who really weren't "all that" as football players. James Hardy at 6'6" in 2008 comes to mind. A guy can have ideal physique and athleticism but if he isn't dedicated to his craft in all aspects (rehabbing injuries, watching film, burning desire to be great) he won't make it. The thing is, once you get to the top level of teams where the players are equally fired up and dedicated, big man wins.

I know there's some folks here who know their stuff Looking for advice/experience either from someone who is dispensing CBD or someone who has ordered/used it for pain relief for a Senior No lawbreaking involved as medical and recreational marijuana are now legal in this state Please PM as it's not for me and I don't want to post someone else's personal medical info TIA

Well let’s hope he doesn’t go the PED route, I don’t think that pays off for guys in the long run But I would think that just about any pro football player would have that stuff - Tre White for example, or OBJ. - and yet their rehabs took longer Even a lower-paid player like Harrison Phillips had access to pretty much all of the above and a hyperbaric chamber at the Bills facility Looks like they gave Phillips a decent guarantee - $1.2M or something, an amount which for a cash-strapped team kinda indicates the team sees him as a lock Shaq, haven’t seen or heard details yet.

Yantha, while you're scratching below the surface, it probably needs to be pointed out that the Bills play a 4-3, in which the "pure NT" role best maps to the 1TDT. Those would be DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle. Neither are under contract past this season. Jones is 31 and Settle 26. Overall, I would assess that Jones was a pleasant revelation and let us see what Star Lotulelei and Harrison Phillips should have been doing in previous years. Tim Settle did injure his calf early in the season and was playing through it, but he did not at all measure up when he was asked to do so, and he saw his snaps slide to 25-35% until Jones was injured in the playoffs. My point is that while the Bills do need to plan for the future on DL, it seems a bit misleading for this year to mention trading Oliver (who fills a different role, 3TDT, in McD's offense) or not mention that we in fact do seem to have a capable guy filling the 1TDT role for this season, in Jones. An upgrade at backup would be good.

Wellllll…..do his ligaments and cartilage know about how hard he works? Certainly there are factors the individual can control, but there are others where body parts heal at the rate they heal.

I think it affected the team, for sure. I think it affected the coaches. My point was that we were missing a ton of people on D for that last game. Jaquan Johnson and Cam Lewis at Safety doesn't seem very safe.

The Browns no longer have the clams to offer stupid deals to everyone. They're still cooking off the clams from the Watson bake

Elam started and Jackson split time with him. I don't recall if they platooned or if Elam got dinged. I think Benford was inactive. Marlowe started at safety and went out about halfway through the game. Jaquan Johnson replaced him. Poyer went out and was replaced by Cam Lewis. - about 1/5 of the game. So for about 1/5 of the game our secondary was Tre White, Dane Jackson, Taron Johnson, Jaquan Johnson, and Cam Lewis.

I think he means “who had not won it earlier”, so Brady and Belicheck don’t count I think what usually happens is that if a good coach and good team don’t take that next step within 3 years, ownership gets impatient and chops off their head: “NEXT!” And sometimes that works - swapping Tomlin for Cowher after a disappointing 8-8 season for example Or booting Fox for Kubiak in Denver And sometimes it doesn’t - like booting Reid out the door for Kelly in Philly Or replacing Kubiak with Joseph, and Fangio, and Hackett, and …. But I don’t think there’s a lot of data on what happens if you take a good coach and a good team with a great QB and give them some space to figure things out

That could well be