Beck Water

It's 4 pm ET on the Monday following the NFL draft

Wow, this is a pretty durn good roster forecast right out of the draft. Historically last 2 seasons, Bills roster has broken down as follows 2022 QB 2, RB 4, FB 1, WR 6, TE 3, OL 9, DL 9, LB 6, CB 6 S 4 ST 3 2021 QB 2 RB 4, FB1 WR 7, TE 2, OL 9 DL 10 LB 6, CB 5 S 4 ST 3 So we've carried 7 WR before, but it was at the expense of only 2 TE which I think bit us in the buttocks when Knox broke his hand Whether we'd do it at the expense of an RB - given that Hines is kind of like a quasi receiver - I don't know. I guess it would depend on how much confidence we have in Gilliam in the RB role a fullback sometimes has? Re your last 2 spots: -Unless something very unexpected happens, I think you can lock Klein into a roster spot this year. I think this because when pushed a bit about MLB in his post draft presser, Beane said something to the effect "we have a guy on the roster we know can do it, AJ Klein". -If the rules of the previous 3 seasons remain, teams get a benefit of having 8 OLmen active on game day, of being able to have 48 active players instead of 46. So I don't see the Bills carrying less than 9 OLmen on the active roster, because with dings or injuries it's going to be hard to field 8 active OLmen with only 8 on the roster. Re some guys you put on the roster: -I'm pretty confident Doyle, who tore his ACL in the 1st Miami game on September 25th, is going to start the season on PUP. And I haven't seen anything out of Doyle that says to me he's better than Quessenberry at swing tackle. So barring Edwards just playing his ass off at OT, or acquiring someone better, I think Quessenberry is a lock.

Ohmygod, that's horrible! The loss of a child is an unimaginable tragedy.

Neither, apparently, does "ProFootballDoc" David Chao, though he did shed some light on the examination process and why soreness or swelling might be a result (spoiler: too many doctors examining a preexisting injury)

More on this from "ProFootballDoc" David Chao, who speaks about how there is "tolerance testing" in the sense of moving joints through a range of motion and asking if the athlete is experiencing pain, tingling, or numbness, but not "pain tolerance", more "is the joint able to move normally through a full ROM?" Chao does point out that Tyler Kroft came into the combine 6 weeks out from a high ankle sprain and evidently, too many doctors from too many teams examined it so he complained of soreness and swelling the next day....but this was a player with an "underlying pre-existing issue". He says he finds it hard to understand how a player with no underlying or pre-existing issue would experience soreness from the physical exam. Now personally, if I had 32 or 64 physicians examining any joint on my body I think I'd be hella sore the next day - I think the NFL should limit it to, say, 3 physicians who share results - but then I'm not a fit dude in my early 20s trying to win a $1M/yr job.

Apparently the Pain Tolerance Test, if there is one, is like "fight club": "Don't talk about Fight Club" https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/pain-tolerance-test-nfl-draft-combine-ian-rapoport-tweet-01gtt5ja8y9h

The Bills will report them when they're signed The agents like to report them when the team calls up and says "we'd like to offer your guy a contract, is he interested?" and the agents says "sure, Thanks". But until it's inked, the deal isn't done and the Bills won't report it.

So he must mean "May" LOL. A rookie minicamp invite is different than a signing. It's basically an audition, the guy signs various wavers in return for stipend money for travel, plus food and lodging, and he comes in to show the team what he can do. If they like him, they'll offer him an UDFA contract. So no reason he can't do multiple camps, except if the Ravens like him and offer him a contract he'll call the Bills and cancel.

I don't think it's true that Gronk was Brady's #1 target either in NE or in Tampa.....maybe 1 year when I think his top receivers were injured. It was always Welker, then Edelman and Cooks. Kelce has been KC's #1 target all but 1 year that Mahomes has played Ertz was not the top target during the Eagles SB run, not until the two years after when Carson Wentz went after him like a bar stalker chasing Megan Trainor and the Eagles offense suffered for it. What these guys were, was the pressure valve, the guy who was always finding the seams in zone or beating man to give the QB a safe throw to move the chains. The big question to me isn't whether the Bills "shift their philosophy on offense". I think that's a "no, and yes" question. No, in that Diggs will still be the #1 receiver and they will still be cultivating vertical threats downfield, but trying to re-gain trust in those the middle of the field chain-movers Josh and Beasley did in their sleep. Yes, in that they'll be doing it technically in a 12 set, but it will really be a 11 set with Kincaid as a "big slot".

You did not appear to be making performative comparisons. You stated "have only one 1T on the roster. " My point is that you are incorrect. If you write something in plain English which is incorrect, don't get huffy when the error is brought to your attention. I do think Settle was trying to play through a torn calf muscle last season, but I would agree his results were not what we'd like to see and missing DaQuan was a factor in the Bengals loss. My point about Oliver is that people like to toss around terms like "too small" or "undersized" without actually looking up the size of top players at that position. Oliver may be uneven in his performance, but I'm gonna bet if you listed the top 10 3T DT it would be found that Oliver is closer to their size than you believe.

I don't have the energy to research how Ed Oliver compares to 3T around the league, but Jordan Phillips styles himself "BigJ9797" for a reason, and he did play just short of half the snaps in 12 games. And Aaron Donald is 6'1" and 280, not saying Big Ed is AD but it certainly can be done at that size. As for only one 1T on the roster, "who is Tim Settle?"

Don't hold your breath on Matakevich since we just re-signed him, and he's pretty established as the ST tonesetter and captain until someone unseats him. But I think you're correct that Jones and Kumerow and Jaquan Johnson are gone, in favor of Trent Sherfield (who can actually play WR), Zayne Anderson, and maybe 1 of our 2 new rookie WR Beane has been pretty clear on the point that if you aren't starting on the Bills, you need to play ST.

That's actually really good to know about how well PS players are treated. I have heard it varies from team to team, the biggest issue being availability of short-term housing in cities with tight and expensive housing markets (since PS guys can be signed to a roster across the country or released at any time). I've heard that some of the best teams provide subsidized, furnished apartments and also encourage their position groups to take PS guys "under their wing" and offer them rooms, while others are more like "good luck, don't get hurt"

To your second sentence - I don't think we hear pro scouting voices at all. They keep their work confidential. What we can see, is that different teams clearly diverge in their talent evaluation. I think that's evidence that, at least in the first rounds, teams are NOT mimicing one another. For initial evaluations, 27 teams use the BLESTO or National scouting services, so the scouting reports they receive are literally the same. And they may not get too far beyond this for players in the later rounds. Beane has a staff of 18 and in addition, they may hire football-knowledgeable people (former college players and coaches) to prepare initial scouting evaluations. (We have a couple guys who have done that, on this board) They start in early fall going to games and evaluating tape. So yeah, they do literally put months of work in. It's up to Beane and (I think) Malik Boyd to make sure they hire and train their scouts to evaluate players the same way. By the way, IMO Whaley was a pretty good talent evaluator. Where he failed as a GM was 1) not being savvy about the salary cap/business end 2) having a revolving door of coaches for whom he had to acquire very different players with very different skill sets, forcing him to draft for need. Trivia point: Belichick's father literally "wrote the book" on scouting football players. I'm not gonna go into my opinion of him as GM, way off topic I don't mind looking at your analysis of Kincaid, but to weight it, would you mind sharing your credentials and experience? Because if you're asking me to weight you above Lance Zierlein and Greg Cosell I need something to work with - not saying Zierlein is infalliable, but when I go back to his scouting reports after a player has been in the league 2-3 years I find myself nodding. I went into that in the "Analyzinig 10 years of first round TE production thread. Scroll down, at the bottom.

I would not have been just as happy with Mayer. I saw a big unfilled need on the Bills as a slot receiver - a skilled route runner able to find the gaps in zone coverage and get open as an outlet. Beasley, before the draft, had a point that if he joined the Bills he would have been the best slot receiver as far as demonstrated ability (at that time) I thought the lack of a slot Josh trusted in that regard allowed teams to clamp down on Diggs and Davis I would have liked a 1st round WR, but given we couldn't make a reasonable trade-up into the territory that would let us draft a guy we had a 1st round grade on (Addison, reportedly), the reports on Kincaid and what Beane says about how they'll use him makes him seem as though he can potentially fill that need. The reports on Mayer don't seem as though he can potentially fill that need without a good bit of development time.

depends upon the terms. UDFA normally sign for 3 years. That implies a flexibility that is not quite accurate. Teams have an assigned pool of money they can use to give players signing bonuses, between $150-200k. The base salary is set at $750,000 and the team can give as little or as much signing bonus as they want to a given rookie - provided the sum of the signing bonuses they give all their FA fall within their pool. 7th round draft picks get closer to $770-780k salary and signing bonuses of $77k to $100k. The rare UDFA may get as much or more signing bonus, but I don't think it's that common. The advantage of being an UDFA is mostly the player can pick what team they sign with, vs. "we drafted you, you wanna play, you play for us". They also get to shop around in FA after year 3 vs waiting until after year 4, but the RFA tender may limit their market. Neither of those are advantages to be sneezed at, but I don't think "ability to negotiate better deals" improves many UDFA contracts above what 6 or 7 rounders get. They have to be a helluva find to get half the pool as their signing bonus. I believe we already have. Jaquan Johnson also (signed with LVR)

Yes. Also, the scouting evaluators are watching a lot more than whether or not the player is being targeted. They're watching how he releases, how he runs his routes-is he smooth and fluid? how often is he gaining separation and open? how does he competes for contested balls? What routes is he being asked to run? For a TE, is he being asked to block in line? Downfield? How does he block? https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-mayer/32004d41-5933-0676-2b57-0928ab0ea95b Most of his listed strengths are strengths for blocking and for running short routes. Most of his weaknesses have to do with route running and catch ability outside his frame. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dalton-kincaid/32004b49-4e06-9130-e563-7edd228031c8 Most of his listed strengths are strengths as a pass receiving weapon. Most of his weaknesses have to do with blocking - that he's not able to work in-line as a blocking TE. Mayer and Kincaid are both good players and predicted to become starters, but they very different players in their scouting reports. Trying to boil it down to who had more 5 reception games is silly. That's not how pro scouting works. It's telling that Mayer went 10 picks later than Kincaid. It says that the rest of the league isn't impressed by his superior number of 5 catch games.

I'm confused here - are you talking about Kiko Alonso, drafted in 2013, and the Dion you mention is Dion Jordan?

Nice side step. No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great. You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season. I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day. Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point. In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable. So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor. But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie. It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

I think it's more like 4 or so per season who wind up on the PS and active for a couple of games. That's $262,000 which is pretty good money for us ordinary Joes and Jills. And often, at least 1-2 are signed to the active roster the following year. Quintin Morris was 2021's example - signed to the roster in 2022 As far as actually signing to the active roster same year they were UDFA, that's more rare - Levi Wallace in 2018 and Reggie Gilliam in 2020 last I can think of. But being signed to the PS for a year or 2 then making the roster is less rare - Tyrel Dodson UDFA signed to PS in 2019, roster in 2020; Cam Lewis PS in 2019, roster in 2021; Quintin Morris 2021 PS, 2022 roster And of course, the Bills snipe and sign guys who spend development time on other teams PS

I don't think that's big and gooey enough for the OP. Da'Quan Jones at 6'4", 320 apparently isn't Tim Settle at 6'3", 308 apparently isn't (and I think that's a Very Old Weight, he looks gooier now) Ed Oliver at 6'1" 287 certainly isn't No love for BigJ9797 at 6'6" 341 either Perhaps the OP could specify: just how big and gooey are you seeking?

Well, if the Rams get the production out of their "Mr Irrelevant" that the 49ers got out of Brock Purdy, they'll be lovin' life

Quite frankly, that's bull####. McDermott isn't subtle or secretive about his POV: best 11 guys earn the right to play. If that's a rookie, it's a rookie. If it's a late-round rookie over a 1st round rookie, it's a late-round guy over a 1st round guy. If a rookie fan fave isn't playing, it's because from the grading the coaches do of practice and game film, he hasn't earned more snaps over the veteran guy. Of course, it was easier to be better than the incumbent earlier in McDermott's tenure when the team wasn't as good, than it became the last couple years with more returning talent each year. But when there have been holes in the roster, the rookies have played. Tre White, started 16 games and played 99% of the snaps as a rookie Zay Jones, started 10 games, 79% of the snaps. He stunk as a route runner and had butter hands, but by damn he played. Dion Dawkins, started 11 games, 74% Matt Milano, started 5 games, 41% of the snaps Josh Allen we all know about Tremaine Edmunds played 15 games and 96% of the snaps on D as a rookie. Harrison Phillips, played in 16 games (0 starts), 38% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates) Taron Johnson, started 2 games, played in 11, 57% of the snaps Wyatt Teller, started 7 games, played in 8, 85% of the snaps Ed Oliver, started 7 games, played in 16, 54% of the snaps as a rookie (on DL where McD always rotates) Cody Ford, started 15 games, played in 16, 69% of the snaps Devin Singletary, started 8 games, played in 11, 67% of the snaps Dawson Knox, started 11 games, played in 15, 64% of the snaps Do I need to keep going? OK Gabe Davis started 11 games, played in 16, 73% of the snaps Greg Rousseau started 17 games, 49% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates) Spencer Brown started 10 games, played in 13, 78% of the snaps Kaiir Elam started 6 games, played in 13, 57% of the snaps Christian Benford, started 5 games, played in 9, 62% of the snaps Khalil Shakir, started 2 games, played in 14, 29% of the snaps Bottom line there's no reason to believe that if Kincaid masters the playbook and game plan and goes hard in practice, he won't be featured to at least the extent that Knox was as a rookie - playing 60-70% of the snaps in every game (whether it starts with him on the field or not). We have a gap in our roster at slot receiver, Beane has indicated they view Kincaid as a "big slot" type player, the Day is His to be Seized. And the next time someone glibly says McDermott won't play rookies, feel free to link this post for them.

Well, defenses will get a pretty good clue when one lines up inline as a Y- TE and the other as an F in the slot

Can play C. Hmmmmm.