Beck Water

Exactly. You understand completely. I have nothing whatsoever against mock drafts. They're not my personal football coverage of choice, but I "get it" that they have a market, some people enjoy them and love to discuss them. I appreciate all the effort guys on this board like @Virgil and @GunnerBill put into them and I've told them so! But they aren't pretending to be anything but what they are: a fan mock draft. What grinds my gears a bit is what I call "catfishing", trying to draw people in pretending to be something else, writing as though a trade that's part off a mock draft has actually happened. And yeah, you're right, it's probably on the headline writer if different than the content creator. How is that? Enquiring minds wish to be enlightened regarding the mysteries of content curation on the Interwebs. All I know is I'm seeing a lot of Sam Fricker reels on Facebook and every time I yell at the screen "No! That's @GunnerBill 's content!"

I don't understand how you are computing AV for a draft. If you're giving Whaley 2017, for example, just Tre White, Dion Dawkins, and Matt Milano sum to AV of 141. Are you averaging, or what? and over what # of players, because Beane didn't draft 26 players in 2022..... Likewise as far as AV is concerned, Matt Milano has a wAV of 50, Robert Woods has a wAV of 56, Sammy Watkins has a wAV of 43, Tre White 46, and Dion Dawkins 45. So totally not understanding how Preston Brown 34, Robert Woods, John Miller 31, Tre White and Dawkins would be Whaley's best 5 as far as AV is concerned.

Maybe catfishing not the right word. Example: I'm scrolling on my phone and "Chargers trade Austin Ekeler to Eagles for late 1st" strikes my eyeballs. Then I read "Seven Round Mock Draft" and "Chiefs take 3 WR". Oh. Wish I were savvy enough to adjust my newsfeed to not show me shite like that.

Ugh, you may be channeling Beane's Carolina roots, as that was the path they took. Here is cap allocation for offense by team in 2022. Click to make it bigger. We can see that a number of teams that felt they could contend allocated more cap to offensive spending than we did, including SB winners KC, the Cowboys, the Vikings, the Bucs (they thought they were in it), the Packers, and the Bengals. The 49ers and Eagles spent less. IMO, if a team has a top 10 QB and wants to win, they still need to be mindful it's a team game; he needs protection, and more than one quality weapon.

FIFY Rousseau and Oliver are 1st round picks who have not yet been "paid", they're on fixed rookie contracts. I guess that's an understandable mistake to make, given that Oliver is currently the Bills 6th biggest cap hit, but how could you miss listing Josh *****in' Allen as one of the folks on offense we've paid? I'm curious about the source of the information about what the Bills spent on their safeties relative to the rest of the league. Per Spotrac, the Bills are spending 1.67% of their cap on safeties this season, spent 1.45% of the their cap in 2022. That doesn't seem like a lot.

I think you can trust that Damar Hamlin has been scrutinized for strange personal medical issues down to the molecular level. His family likely has too. His heart has probably been imaged like no heart has been imaged before. He's probably spent months wearing a heart monitor, looking for any little burp and hiccup in his heart's electrical rhythms. If there were something to be found, his doctors would have found it. He's a troll from a veritable lineage of troll farm accounts. Just stuff him deep in your "ignore" file where he deserves to go, and leave him where he doesn't want to be - getting no attention. EDIT since my posts got merged: Absolutely NOT the guy I'm responding to, the guy JoPoy88 was responding to, who I'm not gonna name because "beetlejuice" You guys are absolutely right, but please see above. This is a PSA brought to you by "this Troll just Jumped the Shark and went too far"

This is actually a point I’ve been contemplating for a while. DL rotation is foundational to McDermott’s defense. I’m just uncertain how successful it actually can be to add difference-making players when you need, as you say, 8 or 9 DL who are good enough to see substantial snaps each game. The 3 CB aren’t an issue IMHO. You need 3 LB + 2 CB or 2 LB + 3 CB, the starters play almost every snap, I don’t think nickel CBs are more expensive than top LB.

I can’t disagree with the sentiment here.

So bunch of stuff here. First off, what does he mean talking about “team friendly deal” and “money I left behind”? In August 2021 when Allen signed, it was the 2nd biggest contract in NFL history (behind Mahomes) and had the most guaranteed money. So at the time it was drafted and signed, it was very much aligned with market value for a top QB. News flash, contracts go up,, and a contract that was at the top of the league in 2021 is gonna look like a bargain now. It’s a fair point that the Bills have underinvested on defense relative to offense overall. There was a really good article - I think in Buffalo Rumblings by Skarkrow - breaking down the draft investment using the trade value chart. I think it did FA as well. Fundamentally, while overall the draft investment of picks are roughly equal, the draft value (highest picks) are skewed towards D. Similar skew in FA signings, I believe. Yet in terms of salary cap investment - of the top 6 cap hits this year, 4 are on offense (Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, Morse) and 2 are on defense (Tre White, Ed Oliver). The next 6 are 5 on defense (Hyde, Johnson, Jones, Miller, Milano) and 1 on offense (Knox). So top 12, 5 on offense, 7 on defense. It’s not as though there isn’t siubstantial contract investment on offense. It’s weird of Florio to single out “cheap guard” and “AJ Klein”. Boettger was brought back on a VSB contract (cap charge of 2nd year player) and Klein is very likely to be close to minimum as well. Every team makes these moves, veteran depth on minimum salary. Overall in FA, the Bills offensive investment has outpaced its defensive investment. One can argue as to whether or not Conner McGovern is a *good* guard or Deonte Harty a *good* receiver, but the Bills invested $31.85M of contract $$ in them vs. $15.5M in their top defensive FA signings, so “cheap” doesn’t seem like the right descriptive. Last but not least, we have no idea the private conversations Josh has had with Beane and with McDermott. He may already have “made noise” as far as what he sees as needs to take the next step.

If he asked, it was after the Bills lost 3 WR to broken leg, back surgery,waivers

Muppy, darling....I was in direct response to you "Yeah Jim Kelly was arrogant and handsome. ............And a star athlete whilst at the U of Miami . ..............Who had relations with a lot of women there,,,,,,, .................And then he met Jill from Attica..................The rest is history.now a totally devoutly Christian husband, father and football icon NFL Hall of Famer,. #12 If you wish to post a pretty clear implication that Kelly's "wining and wenching" days were over once he "met Jill from Attica", that's revisionist history. Expect people to correct it. Posting something yourself about Kelly that appears untrue on the most straightforward interpretation, and then flouncing out with a whinge about "write every single bit of dirt regarding his life" "rehash every bit of #12's life" when others respond, is Weak Sauce. Merely pointing out the facts of what were disclosed in Jill Kelly's memoir is far from "every single bit of dirt" and "rehash every bit". We'd be here more than a minute if we did that.

It's not that simple, Muppy. Kelly was still running around cheating on his wife for years after they married in 1996. Reportedly his mother-in-law once gave him an ultimatum: tell his wife himself what was going on, or she would. And, he pretty much left his wife to soldier through the daily burden of caring for a special needs child with a fatal genetic disease while being a mother to two other girls. A lot of the wives from that era of the Bills apparently made a decision to overlook serial cheating (Patti Thomas, Janine Talley, Jill Kelly etc) It seems plausible that if the team as a whole had been less into partying and wenching (at least during the season) and a bit more into working on their game, we might have a Lombardi or two in Buffalo. Most people are complicated, and Jim Kelly was more complicated than most. And yes, he is a devoted Christian husband and father now....but he wasn't for many years after he married, more than a decade according to Jill's memoir.

Word. I can name many of them, but a lot of new faces.

Wait when did Bills re-sign Taiwan Jones?

I like your enthusiasm with regard to Sherfield and Shakir. I like your feelings of certainty on a healthy Gabe, as well. I'm not sure I share them. I think Sherfield is what he is - a career journeyman who plays ST and can fill the #5 WR slot as an injury backup. I want to see the Bills bring in real competition for #2 and #3 with Davis and Shakir. I have a little different take on the WR class. We are drafting at pick #27. Last year, there were 6 WR drafted in the top 18. But that doesn't affect a team drafting at 27, unless we want to trade all the way up into the top 18! What really matters is the quality of the WR who might be available when we pick. So actually, I think the fact that the WR talent is seen as lower, might push a good WR down into the position where we can draft him. Since this is the "Do Not Draft" thread, I'll say that I don't understand the Jaxon Smith-Njigba love, and he is a player I would say "Do Not Draft". I don't like that he missed the entirety of last season with a "hamstring injury" - either that injury is so bad that he might not be the same player, or it was a "career decision" pointed towards the draft. He's coming out after a missed Jr year, he didn't play a lot of man coverage which means he needs to learn how to release against press man.

Laid off from ESPN in 2017 Hasn't been heard from since Amazing to me that Skip Bayless has any credibility left but he's still employed! (Bayless if you might recall is the one who tweeted, "No doubt the NFL is considering postponing the rest of this game - but how? This late in the season, a game of this magnitude is crucial to the regular-season outcome")

That was a helluva play. I think Klein sacked him by the ball.

I'm not going to say this won't happen. But after using 2 consecutive 3rd round draft picks plus last year's 2nd round on RBs while investing a 4th and a 5th round on WR (and yeah, I know about the Diggs trade - he was a 5th round pick who developed himself) I'm like WE'RE A PASS FIRST TEAM Invest in the OL, then just about anyone can run behind them Invest in the OL, give those late round WR more time to get open and Allen more time to find them Invest in WR and TE The Chiefs found a good RB who contributed to their Superbowl win, where? I will now go smell grass and lilacs and spice bush blossoms and try to calm down

That could be part of it. But Diggs in particular seems to work out, off season, like a little demon. It could be he sees OTAs and their restrictions as detracting from that.

They can do more than that - see post above. I didn't, either. Another notable absence was DL DaQuan Jones. Now of course, just because a guy wasn't photographed entering the building, doesn't mean he wasn't there. IIRC, Diggs didn't participate in the first stage of OTAs last season either? I did see a lot of faces I didn't recognize

You disagree with the question about "Why would we have a cap penalty to move on from Klein?" You disagree with the question "What better options are there in FA at his price point?"? It's all very well to say in the abstract "I'd rather have a younger option with upside as a situational player and backup", but who exactly do you have in mind? 32 actually. 31 now, and his birthday's in July, but that's a nit. 'Zo Alexander was 33 when he signed in Buffalo in 2016, and played for 4 years, until he was 37. The last year, he was slowing down a lot, but he still contributed. Klein has never been a player who depended upon his speed and athleticism, but rather on his understanding of the game and his ability to diagnose the opposing defense quickly and read-and-react. The Bills are critically depending upon Poyer (same age as Klein, 32), Hyde (6 months older, will be 33 in Dec), and Von Miller (2 years older, 34). So frankly if being 32 makes a player "slower and more injury prone" and we should therefore not roster him, the Bills are in Deep Kim Chee with their starting safety duo and star DE all that age or older. I appreciate your kind words, but frankly, it's very easy to sit there and crap on a move but a lot harder to identify the better move the team should have made, and you appear to be following that principle at present. The fact is, this guy over the last 3 seasons and including a game last season, has played very capably as a backup LB for the Bills - not on a star level, but capably. He started for Edmunds ahead of Dodson, Bernard, Spector in Week 12 vs the Lions because the coaches perceived him as the best choice at the time. Now hopefully, that changes with another year and an off-season under Bernard and Spector's belts, and hopefully re-signing him won't keep the Bills from making a move in the draft. But I don't see how putting a capable vet who is knowledgeable in our defensive system (and capable of playing in it as recently as Week 12 last season) in the room with 2 second year LBs (and maybe a rookie) to watch film and diagnose defenses in any way makes the Bills a weaker team Having looked over the FA list (signed and unsigned), I don't see a clear choice that meets your criteria either. I would have liked to see the Bills pursue Lavonte David harder, but he's even older than Klein (33). I don't want to argue with you, but since you seem very strong in this view, I think it's only fair to ask you who you believe the Bills should have gone after instead.

Officially announced by Bills:

https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/ From the CBA, what they can and can not do during Phase I

It's also a point that when the Eagles had Wentz on a cheap rookie deal and won the Superbowl, they chose to pay a good amount of $$ to a backup QB - not top-10 starter-type money these days, but a decent chunk of their cap - which is of course why they won, and why they went to the divisional round of the playoffs the following year. But yeah, that's the main problem, he chose to pay a QB who basically became uncoachable and lost his drive to improve. We can only cross our fingers and hope that Josh doesn't go that route, because I fear we saw glimpses of it at the end of last season and it's happened to other potentially-great talented QB as well (Russ Willson, for example).

So that's what this guy is - a half-decent vet with the potential (if he returns to form) to be a decent vet. And yes, they do need several of those behind their stars.