Beck Water

I kind of disagree with that. Ideally you want your draft picks from the 1st 3 rounds to contribute right away to offense or defense. On the other hand, the better the team, the less need for draft choices anywhere to contribute, and that's pretty clearly where we were with LB last season - we only needed 2, and bar injury, we had 'em. On the other hand, this surprises me a lot. What do you mean by "started"? 1 or 2 games? The whole season? There are a lot of 3rd rounders who show on a site like pro-football-reference as playing a lot of games, but AFAIK for many of them, that does mean "on special teams".. Harrison Phillips started 0 games for the Bills his 1st 2 seasons, and 3 games his 3rd season. He was a rotational player playing 35-40% of the snaps his first 3 years. He did play consistently every game as a rookie - that's not starting, but perhaps that's what you mean? I'm puzzled by how you define "started" (esp with regard to the surprising-to-me claim that 35% of the 3rd rounders "started last year". I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm thinking you must have a different usage than I do for "starter".

Who is an "actual MLB"? I made a post listing the top-10 compensated ILBs by AAV. According to the "efficient market" theory, the idea is top compensation tracks with how the NFL values these players, since no team is gonna queue up to pay an ILB the "big bucks". I listed their heights, weights, draft position, and draft grade by NFL.com. The finding was that 6'1" was within the average height of 6'2" +/- 2", which includes Tremaine Edmunds at 6'5" skewing it high. His weight was a little light - 228 vs average 235 (again including Tremaine Edmunds at 253 almost 20 lbs heavier than anyone else) 7 lbs of muscle gain doesn't seem outrageous in the NFL So....what do YOU define as an "Actual MLB" in the NFL, and what would be his characteristics?

I think you mis-heard him, I believe Beane said "we didn't have a 1st round grade on ALL of the WR drafted before us". I don't think Beane said they didn't have a 1st round grade on ANY of the WR taken before the Bills picked.

So there's a few obvious questions here: 1) even though these are all obviously first round picks, there's probably a need to normalize by playing time. In addition to time lost for injuries playing a role, the other players on the roster play a role - for example, OJ Howard was playing with Cameron Brate at TE, who was getting a larger share of the targets (77 vs 39). 2) once normalized for playing time, context matters. We all love to believe that 1st round = guaranteed success, but of course that's not true. Only about half of 1st round players develop into good NFL contributors (not stars - just good contributors) So for context, if you compare the production of 1st round WR in their 1st year, how does that match up? I'll give an example: 6 WR were drafted in the 1st round last year. 2 (Drake Londin, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave) had >70 receptions for >800 yds. Two (Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson) had moderate production (>30 receptions, >400 yds). One squibbed (Jameson Williams, 1 reception for 41 yds). 3) then of course, for the TE role, it's reasonable to ask "what role were these TE asked to play, and as receivers, who was throwing to them?" So I think you're gonna see more variation in receiving production at the TE position than at the WR position, depending upon the role (F vs Y TE) OK, for Kincaid, it seems to have been pretty clearly stated by Beane that they envision him as a "big slot". Then the question becomes, "what would be a good contribution from that position?" As a slot receiver last year, McKenzie's contribution of 42 receptions on 65 targets for 423 yds and 27 1st downs was pretty generally considered "not good enough". That's 28 yds and 2 1D per game. Beasley's final season in 2022 contributed 43 ypg and ~2 1D per game, and also represented a drop off for him. Overall in his Buffalo years, Beasley contributed 5 receptions/game on about 7 targets/g and 51 ypg and more like 2.6 1D per game. In Dallas, it was lower with 3 receptions/g on 4 targets per game, 32 ypg. The Bills picked this guy specifically because of his "elite" hands and reported ability to find the gaps in zone coverage. I think a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor. I think we'd like to see more Beasley-in-Dallas type production, 50 receptions, 540 yds. Of course, a lot depends upon how much he sees the field. Beasley was only on the field maybe 55% of the snaps overall during his time in Dallas, more like 65-70% in Buffalo.

I think this is a good observation. I don't even think we need to go back to Carolina - I think we can look at what Frazier/McDermott did in 2017 before they drafted Edmunds and when Milano was a rookie STer fighting his way into the lineup. And you're right, they mixed up the personnel at LB a lot more.

I didn't see you over in the other thread explaining who you thought WAS BPA when we picked Williams in Rd 3. DId I miss that? If you think Williams wasn't BPA at pick #91, how about you Stand and Deliver and explain who was, in your view?

The Steelers used to be talked about as "Linebacker U". It used to be talked about how they would look for athletically promising guys in the 4th-5th round, start them out playing ST, 2nd year they might back up the starter, 3rd year they play more and 4th year start. Of course, in the current NFL with a 4 year rookie contract, that means you get like 1.5 years of starting out of a guy and if he has a great season, he hits FA and prices himself out of your market. But anyway, someone has to play ST and outside of 3-4 of core ST players in addition to the specialists, the guys who play ST are the backups, which only makes sense.

In the 3rd round? I was looking, and picks 22-24, 26, 27 were defensive players. The two closest offensive picks were RB Devon Achane at 21 and RB Tank Bigsby at 25. WR pretty much went earlier in the round, and Tyjae Spears at 18. I agree, another 3rd round RB would have been 😬 for me.

So I looked Perry up - wow, he does sound intriguing. But the bit about "erratic hands" and "his drops and ordinary ball skills sap some of the excitement" would concern me. By Jones do you mean OT Dawand Jones?

C'Mon man. The Bills didn't draft either Bernard or Williams to play ST. Some things show a value with special teams. Signing Taiwan Jones 5 of McDermott's 6 seasons when he's played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps in the last 3 seasons and 0 last season. Signing and resigning Tyler Matakevich when he played only 3 defensive snaps last season - clear the the Bills see him only as a ST at this point and he was signed as a FA specifically for his special teams skills. Keeping Jake Kumerow over Isaiah Hodgins when there was a roster crunch at CB due to injuries and the need to activate Tre White without him being able to play - obviously Hodgins was a better backup WR than Kumerow and that showed a value for ST. But drafting young LB in the 3rd round who can't immediately start is not that thing. It's not what they were drafted for.

LOL. Isn't Phillips Beane's Williams?

Oh Boy. The Boo Birds are out in force, I see. I don't know if Dorian Williams can start in the NFL or play MLB. But let's deconstruct some of the stuff here. Fact or Cap? 1) "too small". I looked up the height and weight from draft profiles on the current top-10 paid ILB in AAV. Roquan Smith 6'1" 236 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 8 Shaq Leonard 6'2 234 draft grade 6.3 rd 2 pick 4 Fred Warner 6'3" 236 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 6 Tremaine Edmunds 6'5" 253 draft grade 7.3 rd 1 pick 16 CJ Mosely 6'2" 234 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 17 Deion Jones 6'1" 222 draft grade 6.1 rd 2 pick 21 Devondre Campbell 6'4" 232 draft grade 5.8 rd 4 pick 17 Demario Davis 6'2" 235 draft grade 5.12???? rd 3 pick 14 Devin White 6'0" 237 draft grade 6.7 rd 1 pick 5 Eric Kendricks 6'0" 232 draft grade 6.2 rd 2 pick 13 Our rd 3 pick: Dorian Williams: 6'1" 228 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 28. Top-10 have an average of 6'2" +/- 2". 4 out of 10 players are 6'1 or shorter. Therefore 6'1" is not too short to be a top LB in the NFL. Top-10 have a draft profile weight of 235 +/- 8. Only 1 player was lighter. Therefor 228 is light to be an ILB. However, gaining 5-7 lbs of muscle does not seem like an unreasonable expectation for NFL-level S&C programs to help him achieve. As I've said elsewhere, Milano's draft profile reports his weight at 223. Pretty sure he's gained about 10 lbs since then, and from the look of him it's all muscle. Conclusion: Dorian Williams is not "too short" to play LB in the NFL. He is a bit light, but that can probably be improved with off-season conditioning. 2) Overdrafted First point I'd like to make is that pundits and teams have different draft evaluations. Let's look at the order in which LBs were ranked by NFL.com and who has been drafted to date: Top 15 LB by NFL drafted in rank order 2-4-1-12-5-3-13-9. Some of these teams had their choice of NFL.com higher-ranked players at the time they made their selection, and drafted players ranked much lower. Every year we see this; we also see players who have lower draft grades outperform and have better careers than players with higher draft grades. And NFL isn't an anomaly; you would see similar if you look at the "draft boards" of most pundits. Conclusion: Draft selection probably reflects internal team "draft boards" which differ from team to team, vs "reaching". Now the quality of each team's internal draft board is another question. Again: I can't tell you if Dorian Williams will become a capable starting LB in the NFL. All I can tell you is that his measurables (height and weight, didn't go into things like arm length but he's OK there) are not out-of-range for successful starting NFL ILBs. And I can't tell you if he's a 5th round player the Bills "reached" for; all I can tell you is that Zierlein of NFL.com had him evaluated as the 9th best LB in the draft and a 3rd-4th rounder, but the draft order of LB suggests that internally, many teams had very different internal evaluations of this LB class. I imagine the Bills may have had 3-4 LB they would rather have drafted, but these weren't an option unless they moved up in the 3rd round.

Milano was listed as 223 during his draft. The "eye test" says he's packed on a bit of muscle since then. I would guess 235 now.

What about DL as a thin position? While the Bills currently have 8 signed, it seems to me they have traditionally taken more than that into camp, no?

What's scary is that some people believed ya

Thanks, good stuff. Small stuff, but in terms of what was said in his presser, I heard what Beane said a little differently. He said that Kincaid was the only player they had a 1st round grade on when they picked him, and if he hadn't been there (or they hadn't been able to make that trade up) they would have traded back. But it's possible they had a 1st round grade on Banks, they just weren't gonna trade up to draft a CB.

Just a guess Computer-based instructions Click on your screen name in the upper rt corner On the drop down menu, choose "Account Settings" In Account settings, modify the behavior as desired I'm guessing you have "take me to the latest comment" selected (which will get you to the bottom) and you want "take me to comments I haven't read" On the other hand, if these are comments you've already read, then I Got Nothin'

Terrel Bernard 6'1" 224 30" arms Dorian Williams 6'1" 228 33 3/4" arms I'm not not worried about the weight as I've read elsewhere - Matt Milano was 224 or something, taking a look at the guy I think he's put on a good bit of muscle with an NFL-quality training program But I'm also unclear on how you see Dorian Williams as preventing Terrel Bernard from becoming our MLB

Where's Johnny?

You can compare and contrast draft profiles if you like https://www.nfl.com/prospects/cody-ford/3200464f-5207-6987-5f02-57664dbea176 https://www.nfl.com/prospects/o-cyrus-torrence/3200544f-5269-4111-dab8-fa9ef6354288 Wait plug and play at LG or natural RG, which?

Oh No no It's a point of pride for Bates that he can play any position on the line, but the times he's played OT as I recall, it has not gone well.

I just started wondering this exact thing myself Edwards (and I think someone from the Bills org - McDermott?) has several times stressed that Kromer makes everyone who is not a C move around on the line.

But can he play C, or is he strictly a G? and if a G, L or R?

Hey, what's the allotted time interval for making a pick tonight? I oughta know but I don't and can't quickly find it.

I take your point that you were just repeating what you heard. I could be mistaken, but I think the counterpoint wasn't whether or not you said it, but just repeating info one hears without taking a little minute to check. I kinda see the point, though it can be tedious to verify stuff.