Beck Water

Yes. Also, the scouting evaluators are watching a lot more than whether or not the player is being targeted. They're watching how he releases, how he runs his routes-is he smooth and fluid? how often is he gaining separation and open? how does he competes for contested balls? What routes is he being asked to run? For a TE, is he being asked to block in line? Downfield? How does he block? https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-mayer/32004d41-5933-0676-2b57-0928ab0ea95b Most of his listed strengths are strengths for blocking and for running short routes. Most of his weaknesses have to do with route running and catch ability outside his frame. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dalton-kincaid/32004b49-4e06-9130-e563-7edd228031c8 Most of his listed strengths are strengths as a pass receiving weapon. Most of his weaknesses have to do with blocking - that he's not able to work in-line as a blocking TE. Mayer and Kincaid are both good players and predicted to become starters, but they very different players in their scouting reports. Trying to boil it down to who had more 5 reception games is silly. That's not how pro scouting works. It's telling that Mayer went 10 picks later than Kincaid. It says that the rest of the league isn't impressed by his superior number of 5 catch games.

I'm confused here - are you talking about Kiko Alonso, drafted in 2013, and the Dion you mention is Dion Jordan?

Nice side step. No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great. You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season. I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day. Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point. In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable. So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor. But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie. It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

I think it's more like 4 or so per season who wind up on the PS and active for a couple of games. That's $262,000 which is pretty good money for us ordinary Joes and Jills. And often, at least 1-2 are signed to the active roster the following year. Quintin Morris was 2021's example - signed to the roster in 2022 As far as actually signing to the active roster same year they were UDFA, that's more rare - Levi Wallace in 2018 and Reggie Gilliam in 2020 last I can think of. But being signed to the PS for a year or 2 then making the roster is less rare - Tyrel Dodson UDFA signed to PS in 2019, roster in 2020; Cam Lewis PS in 2019, roster in 2021; Quintin Morris 2021 PS, 2022 roster And of course, the Bills snipe and sign guys who spend development time on other teams PS

I don't think that's big and gooey enough for the OP. Da'Quan Jones at 6'4", 320 apparently isn't Tim Settle at 6'3", 308 apparently isn't (and I think that's a Very Old Weight, he looks gooier now) Ed Oliver at 6'1" 287 certainly isn't No love for BigJ9797 at 6'6" 341 either Perhaps the OP could specify: just how big and gooey are you seeking?

Well, if the Rams get the production out of their "Mr Irrelevant" that the 49ers got out of Brock Purdy, they'll be lovin' life

Quite frankly, that's bull####. McDermott isn't subtle or secretive about his POV: best 11 guys earn the right to play. If that's a rookie, it's a rookie. If it's a late-round rookie over a 1st round rookie, it's a late-round guy over a 1st round guy. If a rookie fan fave isn't playing, it's because from the grading the coaches do of practice and game film, he hasn't earned more snaps over the veteran guy. Of course, it was easier to be better than the incumbent earlier in McDermott's tenure when the team wasn't as good, than it became the last couple years with more returning talent each year. But when there have been holes in the roster, the rookies have played. Tre White, started 16 games and played 99% of the snaps as a rookie Zay Jones, started 10 games, 79% of the snaps. He stunk as a route runner and had butter hands, but by damn he played. Dion Dawkins, started 11 games, 74% Matt Milano, started 5 games, 41% of the snaps Josh Allen we all know about Tremaine Edmunds played 15 games and 96% of the snaps on D as a rookie. Harrison Phillips, played in 16 games (0 starts), 38% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates) Taron Johnson, started 2 games, played in 11, 57% of the snaps Wyatt Teller, started 7 games, played in 8, 85% of the snaps Ed Oliver, started 7 games, played in 16, 54% of the snaps as a rookie (on DL where McD always rotates) Cody Ford, started 15 games, played in 16, 69% of the snaps Devin Singletary, started 8 games, played in 11, 67% of the snaps Dawson Knox, started 11 games, played in 15, 64% of the snaps Do I need to keep going? OK Gabe Davis started 11 games, played in 16, 73% of the snaps Greg Rousseau started 17 games, 49% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates) Spencer Brown started 10 games, played in 13, 78% of the snaps Kaiir Elam started 6 games, played in 13, 57% of the snaps Christian Benford, started 5 games, played in 9, 62% of the snaps Khalil Shakir, started 2 games, played in 14, 29% of the snaps Bottom line there's no reason to believe that if Kincaid masters the playbook and game plan and goes hard in practice, he won't be featured to at least the extent that Knox was as a rookie - playing 60-70% of the snaps in every game (whether it starts with him on the field or not). We have a gap in our roster at slot receiver, Beane has indicated they view Kincaid as a "big slot" type player, the Day is His to be Seized. And the next time someone glibly says McDermott won't play rookies, feel free to link this post for them.

Well, defenses will get a pretty good clue when one lines up inline as a Y- TE and the other as an F in the slot

Can play C. Hmmmmm.

I think the 2021/2022 version of Morse is a much better C than many here give him credit for, and the drop-off to Bates is bigger than people think. If there's one Beane draft choice that I'm still salty about, it's the choice to draft Boogie Basham in 2021 with Creed Humphrey on the board.

Maybe, but he needs some experience actually playing. What evidence supports this conclusion?

You could see it right here in the Williams thread. By me. They're not "all", but 4 out of 10 are same height or shorter. Bit heavier, but I do believe the S&C crew can fix that if Williams is willing to put in the work. Well yeah, but Beane also didn't say "we believe the answer IS in house", he said somewhat more waffling stuff like "the answer MAY BE in house."

I think many of us assumed that was a case of "how do you tell when a GM is prevaricating pre-draft?" Answer: "his lips move"

Edwards has also made a point that Kromer has everyone who doesn't play center, try every position on the OL. Edwards was competing with Rob Havenstein who has been pretty durn solid at RT, and Whitworth, on the Rams.

I Hear That. I thought Brown played better next to Williams in 2021 than next to Bates in 2022. Bobby Hart do do do do dodo Boby Hart do do do do dodo (tune of Baby Shark) I will go further, in the little snippets we have seen of Bates at OT my reaction has been "that's a plan where you lose your Hat....a Bad Plan"

Moreover making such a pronouncement would go against McDermott's mantra "nothing is given, everything is earned"

Everyone has a first try, and they don't always go well. Glad to know your first job, first work presentation, first everything, all went so fantastic that no one could critique them. The question is, when there's a second try, which direction will the trend be? Because of course, no one ever improves from their first time. Bernard was playing for Milano, who is such an easy player to fill in for that when vet AJ Klein tried it a bunch of folks here called him "the worst player I'd ever seen". And literally 4 games later, Klein was recognized as AFC defensive player of the week. He adapted some, the scheme adapted some, it worked. Complicating Bernard's outing was the fact that he was playing in front of backup safeties (Jacquan Johson and Hamlin). I can say "someone wasn't in the right spot covering who they shoulda been covering" but I can't necessarily tell you who that was. Milano didn't miss another game, so we didn't get a chance to see how that worked for Bernard. I do think he needs to get stronger and more powerful. But I think sensible people give a guy more than one chance before they count him out, (unless he does something outrageous like punch a ref or leave the field at halftime, which was not the case). Milano struggled with some injuries his first few years. Knock wood, last 2 years he's missed 1 game per season, plus a handful of other snaps (mostly in blowouts where he was pulled in the 4Q)

So who would you have preferred at that spot? Where did I say he would be behind Sherfield? Sherfield is #5. As I said, I didn't take the message "we see him more as an outside WR than slot" from what Beane said when we signed Harty. He said nice things about his ability to track the ball downfield, doesn't make him an outside WR. I defer to what you saw if you watched him in 2021, but I have questions about how he can release and separate from "sticky" coverage on a routine basis, I assume the highlights are gonna be the "ooohs" and "aaahs" plays, but they may not represent snap to snap.

I didn't take that from what Beane said at all - I agree they aren't looking at Harty as the primary slot, but traditionally #4 was the "gadget guy" - McKenzie's role prior to 2022, the Gadget guy who runs jet sweeps and reverses, played from the slot where he gets a free release, ran deep crossers. Outside deep threat - wouldn't you think he'd get jammed and held at 5'7", 170?

I'm thinking Sherfield is gonna be our #5, Kumerow replacement: 1) he can block downfield and in the backfield as a WR, 2) didn't he played the "personal protector" role for Miami? and despite the "butt fumble" kick in the EZ (not his fault) he did well. He's fast (4.45) despite being solid-looking. he might be able to play Gunner. We have 3 ST roles up for grabs (personal protector and 2 gunners) 3) short passes and YAC What I'm thinking is that this guy maybe competing with Davis, and would hopefully give us a good back up option for that outside guy. I think that ______, in terms of playing time, is going to be 65% Kincaid with a smattering of Shakir, Harty, and maybe Hines. But that's just my premature "crystal ball" here

I dunno about that. Historically, we rode into game day with 5 active WR and 2 active TE I think. 6 WR on the roster We've got Diggs, Davis, they paid Harty at a point where they expect him to be active, I think Sherfield will be active for ST and as a short route target with good RAC So the 5th WR will be a contest between Shakir and Shorter. We'll see I guess..... And then there's the point we may want to roll with 3 active TE and 1 less WR if we're viewing our new TE as a "big slot" At this point, I think he'll be a competition for game-day inactive with Shakir, and the 2nd year guy def. has an advantage. But as a big vertical threat, I really like the pick. "Steel sharpens steel".

I could be wrong here, but I feel that Frazier's defense worked like clockwork - literally, clockwork where each player was a carefully crafted part and all 11 parts had to work perfectly together for the D as a whole to be effective. I think it's very probable that with losing that 1 impact defender, we WILL see the D fall off, and it may be what it was in 2017 - maybe a middle-of-the-pack D that has to pick its poison more (stop the run, or stifle the pass) But in 2017 we still won enough games to make the playoffs, so there's that.

Maybe the Bills will hook him up with that eye hand dude Knox went to I have to say I feel Beane is trying to disprove my hypothesis that he's overly fond of acquiring "smurfs" at receiver

Me bad, I did miss your sarcasm I agree, I don't believe McDermott is looking for the prototypical shed linemen/blow up the run game "Thumper" at MLB.

I absolutely disagree, given the statements from Beane about the role they believe he can fill as a "big slot" who has some of the Beasley-like skills to find the gaps in zone coverage, but with a different body type. If that's what they expect, then even McKenzie level production of 42/420 yds and 5 TD would be a bit of a disappointment.