Beck Water

So the tweet I saw said that Gabe had a 61.6% success rate vs man and a 57.1% success rate vs press. That’s 35th percentile?

So I have a question for you. What is the route success rate against zone, man, or press coverage of other WR in the league? What is it for Diggs? For Tee Higgins? For Waddle? For TikTok Boi? Zay Jones? Peoples-jones? Since you mention contextual statistics, I'd like to understand these statistics in the context of how other WR in the league do. Obviously every guy isn't open on every play, the idea is to have at least one guy open. What is an outstanding rate? What is an average rate? The Bills do run a lot of clearing routes where the other WR job is to draw attention and leave Diggs open. Comment: I agree with slants digs and flats not being Gabe Davis "thing". Those are usually the bread and butter of the guy who has the quickness and deception to run them - usually the slot. I am surprised by the comeback stats, I actually perceive that quick little comeback as one of Davis best routes. I'd like to reiterate a point I made a while back. The hole I saw in the Bills offense in 2022 (and to some extent in 2021) wasn't the outside "#2" WR running go routes and posts and corners and deep crossers. It was having that great guy in the middle of the field, the 2020 prime Beasley who can almost always get open on those slants and digs and flats and intermediate crossing routes. Sanders could historically run those routes but whether he was hampered by injury or for some other reason, they didn't seem to use him there much. Beasley wasn't getting there fast enough (IMO) in 2021. So to me, the Bills making a serious investment (1st round pick) in the best pass-catching TE in the draft in the hope he can fill that hole, makes perfect sense.

Again, what do you see as appropriate production from a #2 WR? You make it sound as though the Bills have never tried to field a #2 WR. Brown's production the year before the Bills relied on him as #2 was 5 catches, 70 ypg 2020, year they parted with him, it was 4 catches, 51 ypg; Bease was the #2 with 5.5 catches, 65 ypg 2021, they signed Sanders, expecting at least 4 receptions and 51 ypg from him and hoping he could return to 2018 6 catch, 72 ypg form 2022, it's a fair "cop" that the Bills were relying on Davis and McKenzie to take over for Sanders and Beasley, and in hindsight that didn't work as well as they'd like Partly IMO for reasons beyond their control.

I'm just curious. What do you see as appropriate production from a #2 WR?

You're correct, but that's always true, right? When we traded for Diggs, we had no idea if he'd come in with a good attitude or be all pissy about being sent to a team with an "inaccurate" QB. As it turned out, he came in and played hard. When we signed Sanders, we had no idea if we'd get the 4 reception/50 ypg receiver of his last 4 yrs in Den/SFO and NO, if he'd be able to return to a better form with Allen throwing to him, or if he'd decline at age 34. As it turned out, we didn't; we got 3 receptions/44 ypg which isn't crap, but not great either. When we signed Beasley, we had no idea if he'd be the 4 reception, 40 ypg guy he was his last season in Dallas, or if he'd be able to return to his 2016 form. As it turnes out, he exceeded both. So we likewise have no idea, drafting Kincaid, how he'll do as a rookie. I'd like to see him be a 4 yd, 50+ ypg guy - that's what Kelce was the 1st year he played (he had knee surgery and was out his rookie year). You really want to see a 1st round guy step in and contribute. But, we have no idea.

In the one game where Kumerow replaced Davis, he had 3 targets and 50 yds. OTOH, Rodgers thought well of Kumerow as a receiver, so IDK.

That's a really good question. I'm not sure. I think it comes down to "all the moving parts have to align". See, Reid had personnel authority over the GM in Philly. And I don't know if he was good enough at that. So a bit of context, in 2008 Reid. McNabb and Philly went to the Conf championship with a record of 9-6 and lost. It was one of McNabb's best seasons. 2009 they had drafted LeSean McCoy and were starting to figure out how to use him. McNabb had another very good season, the Eagles improved to 11-5, and they washed out in the WC round (bad loss to the Cowboys). Then, the Eagles decided to move on from McNabb and traded him to Washington. They had drafted Kolb in the 2007 2nd, he was publicly restive, McNabb was 34. Sell high made sense - but also didn't make sense given where the Eagles were. So Kolb was tackled and concussed in the season opener, leaving .....30 year old Michael "I'm now kind to doggies and take them to Petsmart training classes" Vick, who remained the starter for the next 3 seasons. And I don't think that version of Vick was good enough to get a team to the Superbowl, even with an offense built around McCoy and the running game. There were some other puzzling moves, such as firing Sean McDermott after another WC exit in 2010 and a disappointing defensive performance and replacing him with offensive line coach Juan Castillo. Yeah, you read that right. One point of view was, McDermott was a scapegoat, but the defense did actually rank better under Castillo. Still Castillo was replaced midway through a losing 2012 season and Reid was fired after the season. It was also a time of personal tragedy for the Reids. Their two eldest sons had been dealing with addiction since 2002. Their eldest son Garrett went to prison for drug charges in 2007, then OD'd and died during Eagles training camp in 2012. Britt Reid was also jailed in 2007 for drug and gun charges (menacing another driver. Anyway, I think Reid at that time had no checks and balances at all, in the building - which is why he could keep Vick as the starting QB for 4 years with his only attempt to replace him, Nick Foles in the 3rd; why he could name an OL coach as DC; etc etc. So I don't know if he would have won a championship there. He had football wounds, and they were largely self inflicted through personnel and coaching decisions. He also had personal wounds. The 2012 season had to have been particularly rough.

Wait, WHAT? Florio did that? More than one media guy has done that recently?

Well, maybe I'm all naive and stuff like that. But how do members of the press in other cities "reach out" to guys? Perhaps I need educating - If I'm a player, I wouldn't pass out my personal phone number to the media, nor do I encourage my agent to contact me over every reporter who reaches out in search of sound bite. I'd see my own local media during media availability, and maybe I run into guys around town? I'm sure Ty Dunne has McKenzie's number from their podcasts together, but surely he would be respectful of that and not give it out? There's also the question of at this point, even if you're correct that McKenzie would love the attention of being consulted as a source on Diggs, would McKenzie know? While McKenzie got close enough to Diggs on the team that Diggs and he talked the night of the Bengals loss, when asked about who he sees off-season, McKenzie mentioned Davis and Hodgins but said Diggs was all over and hard to catch up with. I'd love to hear from reporters on this point. Of course, reporters can reach out thru social media like Insta DMs - I've talked to players a few times that way myself, which is another story and one of the reasons I deleted my Instagram account (don't get me wrong, the players were tots chill and we had respectful convos) - but is it considered good practice to hop on a guy's DMs as a reporter?

I'm sorry, but I think that's absolute bunkum. What you say is true of some of the media who are paid by the team - Chris Brown, Maddy Glab, Sal Capaccio, John Murphy. There's some question about Josh Reed since he was seen hobnobbing with Allen and our GM at Eric Woods party preceding the Derby. The Athletic reporters - Tim Graham in specific has been plenty critical of the Bills in his day. So has Joe Buscaglia, who regularly takes crap for predicting Bills losses. I have no doubt Alaina Getzenberg would love a scoop for ESPN. I'm pretty impressed by the new TBN reporters, specifically Ryan O'Halloran. For example he just broke news about Mitch Morse having two offseason surgeries. None of the current TBN reporters strike me as either "Cheerleaders for the Club" or reflexively negative - I think they're pretty balanced. @JoshBarnett @Matt Parrino any comment? You need to lay out a much better case for why Ben Volin has better "inside" sources in Buffalo than your personal belief that all credentialed reporters in B'lo are "cheerleaders for the club". It's possible it's someone who is a friend of Damien Harris, who just joined the Bills as a FA after 4 years in NE. I'm sure Harris still has friends in the Boston area, maybe a friend still with the Pats or a trainer or someone he works with that talks to Volin. But that sort of begs the question whether Harris actually knows.

Well, yeah. Yeah, I do. Or at least, I want to. Please be clear, it's not Volin and the Bostin Globe I have an issue with here. I'm sure Volin has a source, and the source said what the source said. Whether the source really knows what they're speaking of, I can't say. What I have an issue with is all the little echo chambers picking up Volin's story and running with it, with no independent attempts at verification. I don't think McKenzie has any connection to Ben Volin.

I can entirely believe that Diggs wants more input into the offense - which, as a vet, he should be listened to about, as Beasley was. But I can't by any stretch of the imagination square up that particular issue as being his "Untll we settle this, I'm Outta Here" issue IF Tim Graham is correct that the issue did not involve Dorsey. Because there's no way input into the offense, play design, and how players are used doesn't directly link to Dorsey. And if he wants more targets or more use overall, he's trippin'. He already gets as much on a per-snap basis as the two top WR in the league. If he wants more overall, stay on the field, take yourself out less, Diggs.

Dude: we get it that Gabe Davis is not Tee Higgins or Jalen Waddle. But can we agree there's a fair distance between those two guys, and a "bunch of crap"? Yeah, we want him to have fewer drops, and be thrown more catchable passes. But by a number of metrics, he's actually at the top of the #2s and a number of teams don't have a #1 with his production.

Don't sleep on Sherfield and Khalil Shakir.

OK, but we do have a thread for that I'd really like to try to seed a discussion of the meta-issue here, the issue of one reporter or media outlet writing stories that simply rely on another reporter, without any independent source or verification, until things just blow up. Maybe I'm naive and it can't be done here

I don't take it as absolute fact, but I disagree with your premise - I think players and coaches generally speak the truth. Maybe not the "whole truth", but truth. What would be "in it" for Morse to say he's "blissfully ignorant" "doesn't know if it's in facility or outside the facility so doesn't think it's appropriate to speak" "my keys only open so many doors around here and that's not one of them" when he could just say "that's not something I'm going to discuss, but I'll be happy to answer any Football questions or questions you have about my off-season"?

So Ben Volin, reporter for the Boston Globe, stated that "a source close to the Bills locker room" (whatever that means) revealed Diggs problem with the Bills (this is all being discussed in the thread about Diggs, so I won't rehash). Now Volin is a serious, albeit not always correct in his info, reporter for the Boston Globe, so if he cites a "source close to the Bills locker room", I'm sure he has one. From his past history, he's not AP like @Delete This Account aka John Wawrow - he doesn't always have two independent sources close to the situation and he does sometimes get things wrong. Problem 1: apparently players IN the Bills locker room, like Mitch Morse, don't actually know the problem Problem 2: Buffalo reporters, who have cultivated sources IN the locker room, can't get much - the only tidbit was Tim Graham saying he was told "it doesn't involve Dorsey" (so how could it involve Diggs usage on the offense and not involve Dorsey? Sorry, Sorry didn't mean to re-hash) But here's the real problem: This morning, there are literally a dozen articles from SI, NBC, the NY Post, and numerous more "gossipy" outlets. Some reference Volin as the source. Some refer to him as "an insider". None of them have any independent source or verification This Is Fine No, it's not fine - it's how information from one unidentified source gets propegated and becomes "widely reported", without one iota of added credibility or verification. So what can you do, Gentle Reader? Pay attention to the source given for everything you read. And if something is being "widely reported" with the same slender source, please try to rate it's cred appropriately.

Basically correct, to my understanding; the question is whether it's a simple restructure or not (ie within the duration of the current contract, or adding void years). Diggs was within the duration of the current contract, so it apparently doesn't require player approval. Regarding bonuses: There are probably more taxes on a player bonus. Players get paid weekly during the season according to where they're playing. Home games for the Bills get NYS taxes. Away games get the tax rate of that state. So 1/18 of NJ and DC (about the same as NYS), MA (5%), Ohio (4%), Penn (3%), MO (4.95%), CA (12.3%) and Florida (0%) [and I have no idea how London gets handled]. But, the players financial advisers would say that any additional state taxes get off-set by the net present value of having an immediate lump sum to invest and start earning with - getting that lump sum ought to be a benefit.

This may have already been brought up, but evidently, if Beas intended it as praise to the Houston Texans QB, it didn't go over well with some Texans fans: https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-texans-fans-slam-former-cowboys-drawing-comparisons-c-j-stroud-dak-prescott-no-one-gives-f-ck-cole-beasley-thinks Some of the comments are ....salty

I like this picture: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fy8eNZYWYAE7fLX?format=jpg&name=medium About his "Diggs Deep" charitable foundation: https://www.unitedcharitable.org/2023/05/31/stefon-diggs-and-the-diggs-deep-foundation-making-a-difference-in-the-dc-area/ I didn't delve into it as to whether this is a legit foundation, or one where the administration costs are unreasonably high.

I think there is some Dorsey hate around here. Our offense did have a red zone problem for a rather prolonged stretch mid-season. There are other aspects of the offense which are in need of improvement: the run game and how it meshed (or didn't) with the pass game, the usage of Knox, the over-reliance on Allen in the run game. Some people view these as the natural 'teething pains' of a first year OC. Others view them as inexcusable because they believe a different, more experienced OC should have been brought in (ignoring the fact that if the new OC installed a different system with different terminology, it might have caused different teething pains - and never specifying WHO they believe this superior OC candidate would be)

There are many concerns. But wanting to move towards a more structured offense with defined WR routes is a Good Thing, IMO. And as for the reports that was Diggs issue which kept him out of Day 1 of mandatory minicamp, please consider: 1) Tim Graham said the one thing he could get out of his sources, was that the problem did NOT involve Dorsey 2) Bakari (Diggs agent) said to one of the insiders that Diggs had been meeting with Henry (WR coach), McDermott, and Beane 3) Allen said it was "not a football issue" but involved "teamwork" and "communication". It's pretty hard to construe "a more structured offense" as "not a football issue". Likewise Diggs wanting input into the offense.

Probably Josh Rosen for me. I was a "wrong Josh"er. And, I was wrong! I also thought drafting Sammy Watkins for EJ Manuel at QB was a reasonable move, like drafting AJ Green for Andy Dalton - Green was so good he kind of "made" Dalton as a QB. But, it turned out EJ Manuel was no Andy Dalton. BUT - I was totally correct that we should NEVER have traded Darryl Lamonica!!!!!!!!

That’s tremendous. Best wishes to your brother for an uncomplicated and full recovery