Beck Water

Rodgers: "I must leave Green Bay, they give me NOTHING at WR" Rodgers: "Now that I'm with the Jets, please sign my GB WR Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb" We'll see how that works out.

You are mistaken. Josh did lead the league in turnovers last year. 14 INT and 5 fumbles lost: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-players-with-most-turnovers-2022 Like most statistics, some context is needed to interpret them sensibly. Of course all the league leaders in TO are QBs because, INT. But, of the top 5 (Allen, Ryan, Mills, Cousins, Lawrence), Allen is the only one with a significant running component to his game. The 5 top rushing QB (Fields, Jackson, Hurts, Allen, Jones) all lost 2-3 fumbles. Allen is an outlier there with 5 fumbles lost. But of those 5, only Jalen Hurts is a top passer (11th in YPG). The others are all <200 ypg guys. So fundamentally, Allen combines the fumbles of a dual threat QB with the fumbles of a top passing QB who tries to extend plays and risks the strip sack. Is it good, No, but understood in context, he's not some hideous outlier, either. We'd like to see Allen replicate his 2020 season, when he had both Diggs, Brown/Davis as a deep threat, and Beasley as an "always open" slot outlet. In that season, Allen was 8th in the league with 16 turnovers. He threw 4 fewer INT, but he also lost 6 fumbles out of 9 total. He can do better: 2021 lost 3 fumbles out of 8 total. The point is, Allen will always likely be high on the "turnovers" list as long as he remains a dual threat QB who is contributing near the top 5 for YPG passing, AND is one of the top 5 rushing QB. We want him to get back to the 2021 level of fumbles and the 2020 level of INTs. BUT, he can't do that alone. He needs receivers and a well-designed passing game that gives him options, he needs protection, and he needs to improve his decision making (McDermott said this), Josh did cost the team with turnovers other than the Vikings game. We eventually won in GB - but it was much closer than it should have been due to Josh's dumb 2nd half picks taking points off the board for us and handing them to GB. Our D bailed us out to get the W, and if they aren't as good next season (quite possible), we'll lose more of those GB like games. Then we lost to the Jets and Josh was injured the following week. Again, INT by Josh played a key role. He was picked once on the Jets 13 yd line, taking points off the board. He was picked a 2nd time and the play ended in the Red Zone for the Jets and resulted in 14 points 3 plays later. That's the difference between losing 17-20 and winning 24-13 or 20-13 right there. Maybe if Allen isn't pushing to make something happen at the end, he gets the ball out and his UCL isn't torn near the end. Then there's the Miami playoff game, where we won 34-31, but Miami got 16 points (could have been 18) directly off Josh Allen turnovers (2 picks and a fumble). It should never have been that close. It left the team drained and exhausted. Maybe if it were a cleaner win, we would have had more in the tank for the Bengals. I don't buy this "he is a gunslinger, high risk/high reward thing. Allen is capable of better - see above, in previous years he has done better. But as @Buffalo716 has said, he's also only 1/53 players and he needs some help offensively to get there. He is pushing because he thinks he needs to press like that to win. He needs better decision making, but he also needs an "Easy" button to push.

"His trajectory has taken a dip", by what criteria? -More passing YPG than 2021 -Higher TD%, and while slightly higher INT % (2.5 vs 2.3%) it's actually lower on a per game basis (0.875 vs 0.882) -Higher passer rating (96.6 vs 92.2), higher AY/A (7.7 vs 6.9) and for those who care about it, higher QBR (71.4 vs 60.7) -2nd in the league in total TD (42 vs Mahomes 45) -2nd in the league in total Y/Sc per game (315.3 vs Mahomes 329.9) By what criteria or criterion has his "trajectory taken a dip"? He lost 2 more fumbles than 2021? That's a botched snap and a botched toss to I-Mck behind the LOS And let's skip the "Oh we can't criticize Allen on this board" baloney. I'm on record criticizing Allen plenty. He may be one of the best 3 QB in the league, but we'd like to see him take a step and become the best. There are things he needs to improve to get there. But Allen played at as high or higher level last season as he did in 2021, with a worse-quality WR corps, a worse line in front of him, and a 1st year OC who was not as good at scheming guys open. So this "trajectory has taken a dip, let's see if he can turn it around in the right direction" is just crazy talk IMO until demonstrated otherwise by some objective metric. Stand and Deliver.

Market for a player like Devante Parker, reasonable take Market for 'WR who you hope will be your WR3...."....Factually, there are 31 players (including Parker) with a contract AAV of $11M/yr and above. Who are the "WR who you hope will be your WR3 if all goes right" on this list? Some WR2 there. WR3????? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/sort-average/wide-receiver/limit-100/ Does it strike you as weird that the Pats let Jakobi Meyers (age 26) walk in FA for a 3 yr, $33M contract with the Raiders, and are now extending Devonte Parker (age 30) the same deal? Meyers had ~5 r/g for 57 ypg, 12 y/r and almost 70% catch %. Parker had 2.4 r/g for 42 ypg, 17 y/r and 66% catch %. I don't watch either team unless they're playing the Bills. Obviously Bill O'Brien thinks Parker brings something to the offense that Meyers didn't but if it's a deep threat, paying a 30 yr old seems strange. All true, but it seems to me a big part of the engine that fueled those great gm moves was Tom Brady and the Patriots record of winning championships. Players were willing to take less than market value to play for the Pats with Tom Brady, so he had a ready pipeline to backfill when he traded away peak performers who were starting to clamor for market value pay.

Dryer vent stories. My kid and her BF living in their first apartment. Visiting us. Tells me they don't dry jeans in the dryer that came with the apartment because "it takes too long and uses too much power". Was surprised how fast her jeans dried in our (decade old) dryer. I suggest they call the landlord and request that the dryer vent hose be cleaned. Turned out it was jammed full of lint, almost impacted. Airflow doubled once it was cleaned. Now their jeans dry! Huh. Our friend is a landlord - rents 3 properties. She's a mech E and a bugger for maintenance, does everything by the book. Manual says pull the fridge out and vacuum the coils every year, that's what happens. Always thought her kid wasn't paying much attention. Welp, kid now renting a house in college. Landlord just moved to another city and decided to rent his house instead of selling it. Turns out kid knows way more about home maintenance than her new landlord does! She's been soaking it all up, all along. Dryer wasn't working well. Landlord: "It's old. That's just what happens when dryers get old". Kid pulled the dryer out, noticed the hose was crimped, uncrimped it. Still not working well. Took the hose off the fitting through the house wall, found it was packed full of lint, cleaned that all out. Dryer works now! Huh. @boyst right about fire risk, according to NFPA, dryer fires cause 13,000+ home fires a year and the cause of 1/3 of them is "failure to clean".

Congrats from here too! If you're handy, @Draconator, disregard. If you're not, one popular strategy is to obtain a home warranty. My niece is pretty busy with a demanding job and 3 kids, and fix-and-repair is NOT her husband's thing. So she got one, and has found it's paid off many times over. Her drier breaks? Call the warranty company. AC? Ditto. https://www.realtor.com/advice/buy/what-is-a-home-warranty/ Just be careful to look at reviews and at the fine print of what's covered and what's not. I think this just highlights the need to research the company in question - even Boyst admits it worked out in his wife's favor on her previous house. Same with my niece. We don't have one ourselves, but we're highly fortunate to be able to fix a lot of stuff ourselves.

I believe that's the same study I brought up when folks were all "Tre White should be back on the field already or it means he had some setback!" and I'm like no, the average RTP is 12 months so he's on schedule. There's some points - for example, how do the stats on being in the league 3 years post injury compare to a control group that didn't have an ACL reconstruction? And obviously marginal players who were barely hanging on, are going to be less likely to get further chances vs. starters and stars. But there's a little bit of strangeness here. Lemme see if I can bring in the graph (it should get bigger if you click). TL;DR - the text says that there's a significant difference in AV pre and post injury. But the figure caption says that X is the mean, the center line represents the median - not the average. And it's the center line that is 4.3 and 1.5 (called out in the figure legend as the median). If "X" is the mean, then given the size of the error bars, the difference is much less significant. That's not a nit - it's something the authors and the reviewer should have clarified prior to publication. Whether or not that's an error, we see a similar phenomenon when we look at the more relevant position specific change in AV here. We see that for DBs, the change in AV is small (-4.5) and the error bars straddle 0. It's entirely possible that Tre' won't return to his previous "Takeaway Tre'" , first-team all-Pro level of play. But I don't think that article provides very strong support for an argument that he won't. 🤷‍♂️

Don't buy the "by virtue of their positions". Kelce is split out wide much of the time; given his number of targets, he absolutely functions as a receiver in the Chief's offense, usually a slot but sometimes on deeper routes. Diggs and Kelce were both the #1 receivers on their teams last season, by every metric And, you could say that Diggs has target value in the Bills offense that gores beyond the numbers as well - in fact, given the (correct IMO) argument that the rest of the WR corps was better on the Chiefs than on the Bills, wouldn't you have to argue that Diggs has value that goes beyond the numbers as well? Kelce is "Pat's guy", but Diggs has been "Allen's guy" the last couple years - in fact one of Diggs dissatisfactions may very well be that he was less "The Man" in Dorsey's offense. Anyway, potato potahto - on the fundamental point about the relative quality of the receiving corps last year, we seem to agree KC > Bills. So we can both take the flak for that argument

Why? Most players who have had an ACL injury seem to find the 1st year back a struggle, and the 2nd year back much closer to form.

I agree with your basic premise that KC was not "questionable" in having good receiving targets, overall better than the Bills. I'm a bit curious how you come up with Kelce > Diggs though. By most metrics I don't think that tracks. TikTokBoy > Davis and MVS > McK is a pretty straightforward case, and the Chiefs got more receiving from their RB as well.

The question, of course, is whether we plan to continue to run 2TE sets at one of the lowest frequencies in the league? If so, then obviously investing a 1st round pick on Kincaid was foolish. But I don't think that's the plan. I believe that at the "U" in Miami, Dorsey made heavy use of his TE as receiving weapons. In Carolina, it was Mike Shula's offense of course, but once they acquired Ed Dickson in FA, he was on the field almost half the time while Greg Olson was taking >95% of the snaps. Most of those years, Olson was also leading the team in receiving yards. So at least in theory, Dorsey knows how to utilize 2 TE sets in the passing game.

Seems like a pretty fair assessment, though it seems a bit double-dipping to mention the safety position 2x and Deonte Harty 2x. I would think the Bengals feel 'dissed' to not be mentioned as a top-3 team, wonder what the logic is there? One can make a pretty sound argument for them having one of the best OL and one of the best WR corps in football.

Strangely enough, I have read several threads and posts on other threads about that very WR depth concern, right on this message board. 😅😅 For example this from @Jerry Jabber

I don't understand the laughy face response. Josh Allen gave him props that he is really good at separating vs. man coverage. He is. It's how he killed the Patriots and the Dolphins. The problem is, the Bills don't see a lot of man coverage.

It's from 3 weeks ago, during voluntary OTAs. You're just seeing it all over today because some pundit used it to suggest Allen was throwing shade at Diggs. I think it's pretty clear from the original context that it wasn't a "dig" at Diggs, Allen was asked to comment on the new receivers and he gave props to Sherfield.

100% agree. That would indeed, be a terrible trade. I know Ben Albright has good connections and knows some Ball but that's actually bad on the level of some of the crazy trade posts we get here, along the lines of "Oliver sucks, let's trade him and a 5th round pick to the Vikings for Justin Jefferson" or the like. (Proposing we trade a player who is disappointing to us, to another team for one of their best players and peanuts in picks.

Like @Southern_Bills said, person can know that and still have problems if they are trying to save someone else who doesn't know or panics.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/jun/27/ryan-mallett-dead-at-35/ Swimming accident in the Gulf of Mexico can be many things. Rip tide would be one. Sounds as though swimming pool may be incorrect. Which is not to say that intoxicants might not be involved, but no need to go straight there.

Diggs is on such a different level than Sherfield right now that stuff like that probably doesn't register with him. Let Sherfield start taking snaps or targets from him and then see. Until then, I doubt Sherfield and praise of Sherfield are even on his radar. And even if they were, the "Diggs is mad because DHop wasn't signed with the money freed up by re-negotiating his contract:" crowd should expect him to be pleased if one of the Bills signings looks like he might work out (and take some defensive attention from Diggs).

That's one of those "who knows?" things. He stood up and announced he was "stepping away due to health issues". He def. did have some health issues, but he ws only 57 🤷‍♂️ So opinions vary, just as they do as to whether Frazier legit chose to step back for a year, or was pushed out by being told McD would call plays, or was shadow-fired. There's no question on the last. My only point is that it's hardly the sure bet to jettison a winning coach and bring in someone new, that some folks seem to believe. It may lead to a better result, it may not.

Pretty sure it's "What you wanna do?"

I agree with your point that people trying to make drama out of Allen praising a newly acquired Bills player seem to be pot-stirring Also doubtful that anyone posting here knows Diggs on a personal level. As for the final line though - are you implying that other high end talent won't "flock" to the Bills because of media and fans who you say are "the problem"? That seems like a silly take, if so. I doubt top NFL talent gives too much of a damn about media coverage and fans. Past events seem to indicate they care about 1) getting paid well 2) playing for a team that's likely to win a bunch, because losing sucks 3) receivers care somewhat about playing for a QB who can help them put up the numbers - though top receivers like Hill and Hopkins seem to believe they can "make" the QB. And there might be some reason to that- what was it Tyreek Hill said to a Miami reporter, "I could put up numbers with you throwing to me"?

No. Reads like standard "praise the new guy" stuff to me.

No, I was talking about the 5 years Reid coached in Kansas City (11, 9, 11, 12, and 10 win seasons, 4 playoff appearances) prior to starting his elite QB. No one could reasonably argue that Mahomes didn't elevate that offense to an entire new level. But it's also a fair point that KC had the #6 offense in the league the year before Mahomes first started, and a top-10 offense 3 of those 5 years. They also had a top-10 defense 4 of those 5 years. The point is, they were a team with considerable offensive and defensive talent in place and with an established culture of winning and knowing what it takes to win, before the elite Mahomes was given the keys.

Del? I don't discount Brown having no off-season. He also had ankle injuries last season IIRC. But, I'm a bit skeptical as to what that means for him as an NFL OLman. Maybe now that he's had the surgery he'll be all good - that's the same hope we hold for Micah Hyde. On the other hand, we fans were hearing a very similar story from Brandon Beane about Cody Ford going into the 2021 season (his 3rd): how he's played more games injured than healthy, how fans are discounting the impact of him needing off-season surgery and having no off-season strength training, how his best football is ahead of him. And we know how that worked out: with Ford losing his starting job as a guard to Daryl Williams, then being traded before the 2022 season.