Beck Water

You're right that the biggest 2018 mistake was the QB situation, but the mistake was on all 3 phases of offense. Beane later admitted he could have done more to bolster the OL after Wood unexpectedly couldn't be cleared to play and Incognito went publicly nuts. His mistake at WR was believing that Zay Jones would take a step in his 2nd year and that Fat Kelvin Benjamin would be motivated enough. But in theory, Josh had two competent WR, a former 1st round pick proven capable of 1000 yd season and a former 2nd round pick who had set records in college - just not much of anything behind them. I think part of their problem was, they knew Josh wasn't ready (didn't understand protections and NFL defenses well enough) so after McCarron was traded and Peterman flamed out in Game 1, both Jones and Benjamin made "career decisions" not to put their bodies on the line for a team that was gonna lose. Making "career decisions" isn't always a habit a player can get out of, though. That was it for Fat Kelvin, while Zay Jones took 4 years to start looking like a #2 WR again.

Red zone efficiency, also some key end of half/end of game drives. Has already been discussed in several threads.

It means the Bills did have a problem moving the chains last year, situationally in specific game situations, and that looking at the overall statistic doesn't pull that out.

That's about it, I think. That, plus I felt that even by his 3rd and 4th year here, Daboll really hadn't managed to integrate the run game and the pass game very effectively. I'm not football astute enough to have the descriptors for what I saw, but that was my sense. I actually felt we were a bit more situationally appropriate in run play calling last year, but the line was worse at run blocking so it didn't get us anything. Maybe I'm off base. I always kind of felt Daboll called run plays because McDermott pinned him on the meeting room floor and hissed in his ear "you will call run plays or I will finish you". That's a good question - does the amount of snaps from shotgun make the run game less effective for us? 747 snaps from shotgun: 238 rush, 480 pass (32% rush) 301 snaps under center: 197 rush 65 pass (65% rush) That's actually 55% of our rushing snaps from shotgun. On paper, the run game from shotgun was more effective (6.2 ypc vs 4.0 ypc) but I have a hunch that might be because a lot of the run plays from shotgun were either designed runs for Josh or scrambles by Josh - on a quick look, couldn't find stats for that. I could be off base, but in theory, I think it's entirely possible to craft a solid RB run game from shotgun. Seems like a couple of the top rushing teams last season where the QB isn't the best RB (Falcons, Browns, 49ers) are still playing a lot of their snaps from shotgun - maybe not 70% like the Bills, but 60%-ish. I think the Bills OL and backs may not have had the skill set to pull that off. Not sure.

They didn't suffer from moving the chains until they did. The post you're responding to starts with a response to @GunnerBill detailing situations where the Bills failed to move the chains at all in situations where even a single 1st down would mean points. Getting 6 yards from the RB on 1st down instead of 3 straight deep incompletions could make a difference there, not?

I'm trying to think who it was, but someone (maybe Cover1?) did a deep-dive into Gabe Davis targets. The conclusion, as I recall, is that a lot of his targets were essentially deep throw-aways, not catchable balls. Then there were the picks thrown in Davis direction - 6 last season, 2 in 2021. So yeah, if some of those are re-distributed to the slot or the RB, even if Davis has as much trouble with drops as he did last season, Davis production (I guess depending upon how you define production?) should improve. To give some perspective, we're talking about like 2 targets per game. Davis was targeted on average 6 times per game last season. In 2021 and 2020, he was targeted 4 times per game. In 2020 and 2021, Beasley was targeted 7 times per game. In 2022, McKenzie was targeted 4.33 times per game and Crowder in the 4 games he played, 3.25, so they combined to track with Beasley's targets. But after Crowder was injured, no one picked up the slack. Shakir 1.4 targets/ game. Knox target share also decreased by about half a target per game between 2022 and 2021.

Meaning no offense, Gunner, but if you're speaking of the Bills 3 losses last season, I don't think you can call all 3 of them examples of some "psychological closing issue". The win against the Packers could justifiably be described that way, as could the OT loss to the Vikings. The loss to the Dolphins was a story of mistakes and missed opportunities all game long -a fumble on the Buf 7 yd line leading to a TD -a punt after 3 straight incomplete passes from the MIA 45 yd line -end of half after 1st and 10 from MIA 41 with 14 seconds left -FG after 1st and 11 from the MIA 11 yd line -blocked FG after 1st and 10 from the MIA 26 -TOD after 1st and goal from the MIA 2 I believe the Jets loss would have a similar assessment of miscues and missed opportunities. There are problems there, but that isn't a "psychological closing issue". It depends on the RB in question, right? I mean, the SB era Bills used to target Thurman Thomas a lot and I recall it being a damned efficient use of a down. If there is good coverage of the receivers and the QB throws to the RB in the flat or a short route who then gains 4-6 yards, is that an efficient use of a down relative to a long incompletion? Now it's 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 6. vs 2nd and 10.

Billll, with all respect, the Bills defense under McDermott is not and has never been based upon the "single player could dominate them and ruin the plan" model. The Bills did a respectable job of containing KC during the 24-20 regular season Bills win in 2022 and in their 2021 38-20 win. 2022 was Kaiir Elam and Dane Jackson at CB and Damar Hamlin and Jordan Poyer at safety. 2021 was Jerry Hughes and rookie Greg Rousseau - no Von and AJ Klein in for Milano at linebacker. In the last couple games, Milano's assignment has been to contain Mahomes and keep him from extending the play and escaping the backfield. In 2022, he was scored as blitzing 3x and had 2 QB hits, and he may have "done his job". As noted he didn't play in 2021. I will say this - IMO Mahomes owned Levi Wallace soul, and that would be one reason Wallace was not picked up as a FA.

I understand your point, but the OP has a history here, which folks are reacting to

Of course you want Allen to watch. He might pick up some ideas on preparation, leadership etc - different strategies. Always valuable to learn something new. Then there's this: This is despite the Bills beating the Chiefs in their last two regular season meetings.

Well, that, but the Jimmies and the Joes have to suffice to execute those x's and o's

Of course you're right about the pioneering work that went into the treatment of Kevin Everett. Interestingly, one motivation for Ralph Wilson paying for that research may have been the career-ending injury suffered by a Detroit Lions linebacker in 1997 (Reggie Brown). When Damar went down, I initially thought it was a spinal injury causing paralysis and cessation of breathing. But if you read about that, it's clear that the NFL emergency response was not quite the well-oiled machine it is now. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2017/12/22/breathing-reggie-brown-relives-injury/108850952/ It was players who ran to get the stretcher and inform the EMTs on that day. Of course, all 32 teams have had regular preparations and drills for the "Damar type injury", cardiac arrest, for years now. 60-90 minutes before each game, the training staff and physicians have what they call the "60 minute medical meeting" (because it used to take place 60 minutes before the game, now they give it more leeway). It's basically a command-and-control review identifying the people in each role on both teams, and walking through how different emergencies will be handled right down to who will take off the facemask, when do the pads come off and who takes them off, where does the ambulance come into the field etc. The "never happened before" refers not to a serious injury like Kevin Everett's, but to a player literally dying on the field and needing to be rescuscitated. And actually, that has happened before.  Chuck Hughes, 1971.  One minute left in the game. And yeah, in both those cases (Hughes and Brown) they did finish the game.

I loved how when Damar was struggling with his emotions, the training staff there to get the award was all huddled around Damar and focused on him, "hey, Man are you OK?...."

Apologies, I did miss your point.

Um no it's not. 2022 top 10 offenses: Chiefs Eagles Cowboys Bills Lions 49ers Vikes Bengals Seahawks Jags Monson's list by team: Lions Chargers Patriots Seahawks Bills Commanders Ravens Chiefs Colts Cowboys It's basically Monson's list of what OCs he likes.

Just a little note that this is apparently his ranking of THIS YEAR'S offensive coordinators who have not yet coordinated an NFL game with their new team (and in some cases, never yet have). Fair, but again, to be clear - Sam Monson is projecting 2023 performance.

Valid

I'm breaking this out from the Cowherd thread because I'm hoping to attract some answers from some knowledgeable folks here. Imma tag a few but anyone who fancies himself savvy about NFL run game please speak up, I'm sure I've forgotten some knowledgeable folks I'd love to hear from (either that or I can't figure out how to spell your screen name and tag ya) @Buffalo716 @HoofHearted So in the Cowherd interview of Dion Dawkins, Cowherd goes on at length with his opinion that a running QB makes the conventional run game less effective. He cites Tennessee with Henry and the 49ers with McCaffrey. Yes, those teams have effective running games because they have great backs, great run-blocking OLs,and a QB who throws "enough". But while Lamar Jackson had the most yards on the Ravens, Dobbins, Drake and Edwards had 1435 yds - pretty effective. Jalen Hurts is a running QB, but Miles Sanders rushed for 1269 yds, pretty effective. I believe someone posted a stat that the Bills are lowest in rush attempts by an RB. I think the problem is they just don't try to run the ball enough, or effectively enough when they do try. But it has nothing to do with Josh extending the play and trying to make shinola from ***** on a pass play by scrambling. I don't see the logic there. What are your thoughts? Does a running QB and improvisation make the conventional run game less effective? What Cowherd has to say: https://youtu.be/djGAQi46d68?t=1014 16:50 in if the above doesn't take you there

Is this gonna be another one of those Josh Allen Rumors threads? Yeah, OLman need some mass. But there's kind of a ....curve if I may say so. They need the right amount, not too much. I was the "fat shamer" and I did think earlier in OTAs Dion was 👀👀 too much. He actually looks better now.

Wow 10:49 in. Cowherd asks Dion about the Jets game. Dion neatly picks up on one thing he says, challenges him politely 'why do you think that?', gets an answer, and dissects it. Dion is usually an off-beat interview where he uses kind of strange analogies (schnow mac'n'cheese) and does as much deflection and question dodging as a coach but with a kind of casual, vague vibe so it usually flies by without a ripple, but he can sure get to the point when he wants to.

Gunner I'm trying to parse this and figure out who you're talking about, but No Joy. Can you say more and help me out? What I know is from actual NFL guards talking about PFF grades vs. how the coachs grade them. One was Eric Wood, during a publicly available interview - I had a quick search and can't find it, might be too old. Not going to cite the other, but he is a retired NFL player of distinction.

I'll give you some data, or at least a good example to back up your point 2014. Eric Wood, playing C between Kraig Urbik and Erik Pears (an acceptable RT but a sucky RG). I think he was rated near the bottom of the league by PFF. He said later, he thought he might even be cut. 2015. Eric Wood, playing C between Ritchie Incognito and John Miller (who Bills fans disliked but is actually capable in the right system - still in the league). Now all of a sudden he's playing great. Pro bowl when it meant a bit more. Rated well by PFF. Yeah, for a C, the play of the guys on either side of him matters a lot. And the need of the guys to work together/difficulty of non-expert footbball observers to decode who had what blocking assignment, is one of the reasons why PFF OL grades are to be taken with the saltiest grain of salt.

I agree with you that Morris can just play football, but Man! Every time I saw him on the field last year I was like "More, please". 11 targets, 8 receptions - including 6 1D and a TD. That's unreal. I remember watching one of Greg Cosell's weekly sessions, early or pre-season with Chris Brown and Steve Tasker where Morris ran a route and Cosell was like "that's a great route for a TE, who is that kid?" On his TD, he did a hard arm-over to release off the line that was Diggs-worthy.

Whisky Tango Foxtrot? How very "Meta" of you, Fergy. 1) "Letting people express their opinion" is governed by them having an account here and making a post. 2) Me having an opinion and expressing it in return doesn't stop them from expressing their opinion here in any way that I can see 3) Last time I looked, one person expressing a football opinion and another person disagreeing and politely responding with their different football opinion, is literally the purpose of this board 4) Last time I looked, there was no limit on the number of threads people can post in or the number of different opinions on different topics they can express - just on repetitively repeating that same opinion again and again and again (campaigning or crusading). That's not what's going down here. If you have a personal problem with how often, where , or what I post, I believe there's a simple solution provided by the board software.

Pecans. touch of cinnamon. No chocolate. I make it in the Instant Pot so I don't need to turn on the oven so it has a wonderful smooth texture. It's good. https://rootitoot.com/recipes-and-cooking/breakfast-breads-and-sandwiches/banana-bread/