Beck Water

People in this thread are saying this, but it's not quite what the stats record. Can you explain?

He will be getting game checks for the $1M of his 2023 salary that is fully guaranteed. He won't be getting game checks for his per-game roster bonus or the $1.56M of his salary that is not fully guaranteed.

I don't think he was selected as a first-team all-pro because "he's been a fumble machine" in the return game. Looking at stats, he had 3, 3, and 2 fumbles (1 lost each season). What are you seeing or what have you heard beyond the stats?

The easy answer for an injury occurring outside the facility during the off-season is "yes, it does free up his $$$ on the salary cap". Those are called "non-football injuries" and the team isn't obligated to pay non-guaranteed salary or per-game roster bonuses. "NFL teams are not required to pay base salaries to players placed on the reserve/non-football injury or reserve/non-football illness lists."** Hines has a cap hit of $3.5M of which $1.5M is signing bonus or fully guaranteed, so it frees up (nominally) $2M Now, for a vet who is injured in the facility, he will usually have injury guarantees in his contract, so the easy answer would be "no". **it is left to the discretion of the team, so the team can choose to pay the player part or all of his salary and per game bonuses. they just aren't obligated to. if they choose to, it still counts against the cap.

You do know Harty actually led the league in PR and was a 1st team all pro as a ST'er his rookie season? He was 10th and 14th in PR yardage the next 2 years. 5th, 14th, and 7th in KR yards. I don't want to minimize Hines loss. He was a good KR/PR for us last season. I think Hardy has had trouble staying on the field, so using him as a PR where "it helps if you have a screw loose" (Andre Roberts) or "I don't care about my life" (Nyheim Hines pre-return mantra) isn't gonna help him contribute as a receiver. But going from "Oh,no - Hines is a big loss" to "we don't have a returner" is a big step.

I dunno what you mean by "quite often". Are there stats on this somewhere? Would love to see. Let's look at Nyheim Hines. He had 2 kickoff return TDs against the Pats for 96 yds and 101 yds. Obviously he made a decision to run instead of fair catch, but neither were from "5 yards deep". A nit, perhaps. But look at the big picture. Hines returned kicks for us in 7 games. In 4 of those games (including the Pats game) his average return yards were >25 y/rt. In 3 of those games, it was less. But in 2 of those games, it was 20 or 19 yds. So obviously, the way he was coached is "run it out if you think you can get at least back to the 20." Now it's gonna be "catch it and take it out only if you think you can get at least to the 25". There were ~40 players with >10 KR in the NFL last season. Only 12 averaged >25 yds, and of those 12, 2 averaged 25.5 So it changes the way players will be coached.

Because saving $3.4M by cutting Hines and Neal really helps afford $12M in yearly salary. Look, I "get" the frustration that the Bills didn't choose to go all-in on a WR splash. That's a puzzling organizational decision. But picking out two players who had definite roles and were doing them well last year and saying "cut them" is far from the retrenchment that would be needed to make that particular OBJ or Nuk splash.

Huh? Deonte Harty, when healthy, has been one of the best returners in the league.

Unfortunately Tom Pelissero is well-plugged-in and a typically reliable source. Here is where the seamy side of NFL contracts can be at play. An injury off-site - even if it's sustained while training for the upcoming season on the player's own time and dime - can be termed a "non football injury" and his salary and signing bonus would not be due. I shared the hope several expressed that we wanted Deonte Harty to concentrate on being a WR and not a return man. We'll see where that goes.

Be a big surprise to me if DK Metcalf actually did - unless there were a couple of ladies in that bed. I have the impression NFL WR tend to be "players" in both senses of the word.

It sounds as though he might be doing some sort of intermittent fasting eating plan (depending on what's in the Starbucks coffee - black vs sugary mess). Something like 16:8 (16 hrs of no eating, 8 hrs of eating). Doesn't sound like a diet designed to produce muscle growth

I actually thought Beasley looked painfully slow during games at the end of 2021 and the limited action in 2022. But, possibly he was suffering from lingering effects of playing on a broken leg (2020) and with broken ribs (2021) and will have healed up and returned to form. The Giants could probably have used him last year, but I think 1) he wanted more $$ and 2) he said "I don't want to go to NY." So maybe this off-season he has a more realistic assessment of the interest teams have in him (low) and his value (probably vet min). The competition for Beasley is likely to be Parris Campbell, Wan'Dale Robinson, and FA signing Jamison Crowder. Campbell was primarily a slot receiver with the Ponies. He signed a 1 year, $4.7M contract with $2.9M guaranteed, so that kind of gives him an edge in that race - although, some Giants media are saying he'll see reps at RB in camp? (?!!!!). Crowder is on a vet salary benefit contract with $52k in workout and signing bonuses. I would expect Beasley to be on a similar VSB contract with little guaranteed, and that both of them won't make it. The fact that Wan'Dale Robinson is this Giants regimes 2nd round pick, and that Campbell has $2.9 guaranteed if you cut him or don't, would probably give them the leg(s) up. I could be wrong but I see Hyatt, Sheppard, and Hodgins as their outside WR. I'm not sure Beasley wants to be on a practice squad through the season.

So, question. Eagles lost OC Shane Steichen and moved QB coach Brian Johnson to OC. Johnson does have experience as an OC at 3 different college programs (unclear whether he was OC in name at some), but no OC experience in the NFL. Will this be a seamless transition of OCs, or will there be growing pains? Thoughts?

So one of the little interesting things to me is the KR/PR thing. Hines was decent. 12/13th in the league (PR/KR) In 2021, Hardy was 14th/7th (PR/KR). 10th and 13th in 2020 (despite only 9 games). 2019, 1st and 5th. So do they see Hines as their PR/KR gadget guy? Or is that a place where they'll want to try to use Harty? Hmmm. Peak FredEx, he was good for 30-40 receptions, >dozen receiving 1D. Harris hasn't had that many receptions. Seems to catch it when it's thrown to him. Is that because he's not much of a receiver, or the Pats just didn't use him that way?

All respect, I don't think WR3 or WR4 is "his preferred role" to Gabe Davis.

Just a little note that Davis was injured in practice prior to week 2, at which point in the season Kumerow was healthy and taking 70% of the ST snaps It's true he was injured the following week against Mia, but since Davis played like a full game against Mia, presumably he played because they thought he could, not because he needed to play (and block).

Seriously?

Cool story. I like that he offered to share the rental, and McD declined; also liked that he offered the front seat to McD's daughter (as he should). McDermott may have actually gotten the idea to fly to Pittsburgh and drive to Buffalo, from one of his former players - Isaiah McKenzie. Mckenzie talked about having his flight cancelled and how he flew to Pittsburgh and got a ride to Buffalo from a fan on his podcast with Ty Dunne. For all you know, the Bills PR department may have mentioned it to a reporter as a way to get a "feel good story" about McDermott out there. Or the guy may have posted about it on social media and a TBN reporter may have seen that and sought him out for something to print in this slow football time. Sheesh.

You're right that the biggest 2018 mistake was the QB situation, but the mistake was on all 3 phases of offense. Beane later admitted he could have done more to bolster the OL after Wood unexpectedly couldn't be cleared to play and Incognito went publicly nuts. His mistake at WR was believing that Zay Jones would take a step in his 2nd year and that Fat Kelvin Benjamin would be motivated enough. But in theory, Josh had two competent WR, a former 1st round pick proven capable of 1000 yd season and a former 2nd round pick who had set records in college - just not much of anything behind them. I think part of their problem was, they knew Josh wasn't ready (didn't understand protections and NFL defenses well enough) so after McCarron was traded and Peterman flamed out in Game 1, both Jones and Benjamin made "career decisions" not to put their bodies on the line for a team that was gonna lose. Making "career decisions" isn't always a habit a player can get out of, though. That was it for Fat Kelvin, while Zay Jones took 4 years to start looking like a #2 WR again.

Red zone efficiency, also some key end of half/end of game drives. Has already been discussed in several threads.

It means the Bills did have a problem moving the chains last year, situationally in specific game situations, and that looking at the overall statistic doesn't pull that out.

That's about it, I think. That, plus I felt that even by his 3rd and 4th year here, Daboll really hadn't managed to integrate the run game and the pass game very effectively. I'm not football astute enough to have the descriptors for what I saw, but that was my sense. I actually felt we were a bit more situationally appropriate in run play calling last year, but the line was worse at run blocking so it didn't get us anything. Maybe I'm off base. I always kind of felt Daboll called run plays because McDermott pinned him on the meeting room floor and hissed in his ear "you will call run plays or I will finish you". That's a good question - does the amount of snaps from shotgun make the run game less effective for us? 747 snaps from shotgun: 238 rush, 480 pass (32% rush) 301 snaps under center: 197 rush 65 pass (65% rush) That's actually 55% of our rushing snaps from shotgun. On paper, the run game from shotgun was more effective (6.2 ypc vs 4.0 ypc) but I have a hunch that might be because a lot of the run plays from shotgun were either designed runs for Josh or scrambles by Josh - on a quick look, couldn't find stats for that. I could be off base, but in theory, I think it's entirely possible to craft a solid RB run game from shotgun. Seems like a couple of the top rushing teams last season where the QB isn't the best RB (Falcons, Browns, 49ers) are still playing a lot of their snaps from shotgun - maybe not 70% like the Bills, but 60%-ish. I think the Bills OL and backs may not have had the skill set to pull that off. Not sure.

They didn't suffer from moving the chains until they did. The post you're responding to starts with a response to @GunnerBill detailing situations where the Bills failed to move the chains at all in situations where even a single 1st down would mean points. Getting 6 yards from the RB on 1st down instead of 3 straight deep incompletions could make a difference there, not?

I'm trying to think who it was, but someone (maybe Cover1?) did a deep-dive into Gabe Davis targets. The conclusion, as I recall, is that a lot of his targets were essentially deep throw-aways, not catchable balls. Then there were the picks thrown in Davis direction - 6 last season, 2 in 2021. So yeah, if some of those are re-distributed to the slot or the RB, even if Davis has as much trouble with drops as he did last season, Davis production (I guess depending upon how you define production?) should improve. To give some perspective, we're talking about like 2 targets per game. Davis was targeted on average 6 times per game last season. In 2021 and 2020, he was targeted 4 times per game. In 2020 and 2021, Beasley was targeted 7 times per game. In 2022, McKenzie was targeted 4.33 times per game and Crowder in the 4 games he played, 3.25, so they combined to track with Beasley's targets. But after Crowder was injured, no one picked up the slack. Shakir 1.4 targets/ game. Knox target share also decreased by about half a target per game between 2022 and 2021.

Meaning no offense, Gunner, but if you're speaking of the Bills 3 losses last season, I don't think you can call all 3 of them examples of some "psychological closing issue". The win against the Packers could justifiably be described that way, as could the OT loss to the Vikings. The loss to the Dolphins was a story of mistakes and missed opportunities all game long -a fumble on the Buf 7 yd line leading to a TD -a punt after 3 straight incomplete passes from the MIA 45 yd line -end of half after 1st and 10 from MIA 41 with 14 seconds left -FG after 1st and 11 from the MIA 11 yd line -blocked FG after 1st and 10 from the MIA 26 -TOD after 1st and goal from the MIA 2 I believe the Jets loss would have a similar assessment of miscues and missed opportunities. There are problems there, but that isn't a "psychological closing issue". It depends on the RB in question, right? I mean, the SB era Bills used to target Thurman Thomas a lot and I recall it being a damned efficient use of a down. If there is good coverage of the receivers and the QB throws to the RB in the flat or a short route who then gains 4-6 yards, is that an efficient use of a down relative to a long incompletion? Now it's 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 6. vs 2nd and 10.