Beck Water

Agreed. "The media overreacted" is pretty damned general to take personally, unless Thad Brown wants to lump himself in with every media outlet in the country. Which, would not recommend itself to me if I were in his position, but Thad's gotta Thad.

That's - ______ Speechless. I'm pretty sure that's also illegal (threatening a witness) but unsure. He can be pretty funny and even interesting with the right interviewers. His interview with Marc Sanchez on "Fourth and Forever" is classic. But then Sanchez knows something about the life of an NFL QB and could draw him out on life in the huddle, cold weather, etc.

At a guess....the low completion % probably reflects someone who "doesn't take chances" and is throwing the ball away a lot when he can't find a receiver that is open to his satisfaction but doesn't have a good pass-protecting OL and doesn't want to risk a strip sack trying to manuever and wait.

For those who don't want to wade through, Josh Allen interview starts 43:13 in. 58:03 "You're in the tabloids, there are all these rumors, you're dating an actress. Want to talk about your personal life?" "No Comment". Anyone know who Josh is looking at off camera when he turns his head and says "you're an #######"?

Mahomes working out with some of the receivers in the draft is, IMO, almost Belicheck-like skirting of the regulations about team visits and work outs. It's entirely possible Allen was still resting and rehabbing his elbow at that point pre-draft. It's also entirely possible that isn't something the Bills would like him to do. Whether or not something is reported, depends upon who is involved and whether or not the players want it reported. In the past, players have talked in pre-season about going out to throw with Josh, and it was never reported until they said something. When Diggs helped get Josh and the receivers together in 2020 when OTAs were cancelled, it was reported because the players wanted it to be. They invited Buffalo photographer Joe Croom (and I think a videographer), and he posted photos and some videos of the workouts. But if they didn't do that, who would know? There are a lot of quality football fields in the country. The sports media isn't staking out every one. They aren't even staking out all of the ones near locations where Allen is known to be staying.

I imagine that just like IRL, for an NFL player there are guys ya love, and guys ya can do without... I haven't noticed that having the money to "live the life of their dreams" keeps some people from being unhappy, or just being jerks. But, I do think successful QB have to have the skill of being 'likeable' and drawing people in. That was actually the big mistake I made when I thought Josh Rosen (yes .... I was a "wrong Josh" er who had to reform...) would be a good NFL QB. I totally underestimated the impact of being a likeable guy who players WANT to "go hard" for.

Twitter won't let me view for some reason, what does it say? So, in one of his Kyle Brandt Basement segments, Allen himself said that the UCL injury forced him to return to an overhand throwing motion and away from the rotational throwing motion he had developed. The overhand throwing motion is the motion Josh had in college and in his first 2 years in the league. During that time, Josh Allen was noticably less accurate on short passes. People such as myself observed this and commented multiple times "gotta hit the bunnies, Josh!" during this time. So there's a bit of addition going on here by "some people on the board", like me, but it's not based on "just a sports chiropracter" or "convicing ourselves", it's based upon something Josh Allen himself said in a publicly available interview, added to observations about what Josh's accuracy was like on short and short/intermediate passes when he was using the throwing motion he said he was forced to revert to.

I wish we had a 💖 emoji for response. Love ya Chand!

I hope so. But it's not unknown for rookies to take a while to adjust to the NFL

Allen has been supportive and complimentary of Mahomes, he played with him last season. And Knox pals up with Kelce every year at their TE University or whatever they call it

Cue all the KC fan handwringing over how Mahomes has "lost focus" ? Or no?

I'm not going to continue this. But you realize there's a fundamental contradiction implicit in what you say. You say "Getting to the Superbowl and winning it is Allen's trajectory. ....Hopefully he and the team will take the next step this coming season" He and the team. Not he. Getting to the Superbowl and winning it is a TEAM trajectory. It takes 53 players plus coaches. So yes, not progressing towards that is a step back. But it's the TEAM's step back, not Allen's. I also disagree with "if you're not progressing you're regressing". "holding steady" is an option. But by that metric, wouldn't you have to say that Allen regressed in 2021 too? After all, the TEAM lost in the Division round whereas the previous year, they went to the AFCCG. Yet anyone would tell you that Allen's playoff performances in 2021 were elite, whereas in 2020, the team got seriously outplayed in the AFCCG, including Allen. See how puzzling that "getting to the Superbowl and winning" metric can be? If it isn't just one game, it's a pattern...then there ought to be some sort of objective metric you can point to to show "regression".

How do we know Allen isn't working with Palmer this off-season? Has Allen said so?

That would be grand! Historically, it can take guys a while to learn the nuances of NFL defenses. On the other hand, Kincaid is 6'4" so "it's always open 2 feet over his head" might help

You need a third option: ”'Cause it's a bittersweet symphony, that's life ”

Agree on Josh's comments and on the fact that a number of Josh's turnovers were bad decisions Not sure if we're talking turnovers or INTs here. If we're talking turnovers (INTs plus fumbles) Dak was 7th, with 16 to Josh's 19. Ahead of him Ryan, Mills, Cousins, Lawrence and (drumroll) Aaron Rodgers. If we're talking INTs, Davis Mills and Dak were tied with 15, Allen tied for 2nd with 14 (with Cousins and Derek Carr) So basically you're saying Allen's trajectory dipped because of his performance in the playoffs? I'm not going to argue with you, you're entitled to define "trajectory" any way you like, including defining it as "how the guy looked during the final playoff game" I will note that numerous football coaches comment on neither annointing nor pillorying a guy because of one game. And the point stands that there are 53 players on a team, 46 or 48 active on game day. The whole team came out "flat as a pancake" and performed horribly during the playoffs.

OK, so it sounds like we agree that Parker is a WR2 getting paid like a good WR2. And I think that's where Davis will slot (sounds like you agree) Yes, I'm aware you can't look at the top 31 contracts and say "those are the WR1" for the reasons you cite. That's why I just asked who on that list you saw as the WR3? It would certainly be desirable to have a WR-1 capable guy as our WR2 and a WR2-type as our WR3, but I'm not sure that's what the last few Superbowls really showed us. For example, was TikTok Boy a WR1 playing 2nd receiver for the Chiefs? JSS put up #1 type numbers once upon a time with Big Ben, but hindsight seems to say that was the Antonio Brown effect and when he became "#1" on the team, it was learned he wasn't? Was MVS a WR2 playing 3rd receiver for the Chiefs? The situation you cite is surely true of the Bengals and the Eagles, but was it true of the 2021 Rams - Van Jefferson, Really? The 2020 Bucs - is Chris Godwin a WR1 playing WR2 or another case of a guy making yards behind an unreal #1? The 2018 and 2019 Pats? I mean, the 2nd receiver for yards on the 2018 and 2019 pats was an RB fergoshsakes. I'm interested in this. Where is he terribly rated, and by whom?

Rodgers: "I must leave Green Bay, they give me NOTHING at WR" Rodgers: "Now that I'm with the Jets, please sign my GB WR Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb" We'll see how that works out.

You are mistaken. Josh did lead the league in turnovers last year. 14 INT and 5 fumbles lost: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-players-with-most-turnovers-2022 Like most statistics, some context is needed to interpret them sensibly. Of course all the league leaders in TO are QBs because, INT. But, of the top 5 (Allen, Ryan, Mills, Cousins, Lawrence), Allen is the only one with a significant running component to his game. The 5 top rushing QB (Fields, Jackson, Hurts, Allen, Jones) all lost 2-3 fumbles. Allen is an outlier there with 5 fumbles lost. But of those 5, only Jalen Hurts is a top passer (11th in YPG). The others are all <200 ypg guys. So fundamentally, Allen combines the fumbles of a dual threat QB with the fumbles of a top passing QB who tries to extend plays and risks the strip sack. Is it good, No, but understood in context, he's not some hideous outlier, either. We'd like to see Allen replicate his 2020 season, when he had both Diggs, Brown/Davis as a deep threat, and Beasley as an "always open" slot outlet. In that season, Allen was 8th in the league with 16 turnovers. He threw 4 fewer INT, but he also lost 6 fumbles out of 9 total. He can do better: 2021 lost 3 fumbles out of 8 total. The point is, Allen will always likely be high on the "turnovers" list as long as he remains a dual threat QB who is contributing near the top 5 for YPG passing, AND is one of the top 5 rushing QB. We want him to get back to the 2021 level of fumbles and the 2020 level of INTs. BUT, he can't do that alone. He needs receivers and a well-designed passing game that gives him options, he needs protection, and he needs to improve his decision making (McDermott said this), Josh did cost the team with turnovers other than the Vikings game. We eventually won in GB - but it was much closer than it should have been due to Josh's dumb 2nd half picks taking points off the board for us and handing them to GB. Our D bailed us out to get the W, and if they aren't as good next season (quite possible), we'll lose more of those GB like games. Then we lost to the Jets and Josh was injured the following week. Again, INT by Josh played a key role. He was picked once on the Jets 13 yd line, taking points off the board. He was picked a 2nd time and the play ended in the Red Zone for the Jets and resulted in 14 points 3 plays later. That's the difference between losing 17-20 and winning 24-13 or 20-13 right there. Maybe if Allen isn't pushing to make something happen at the end, he gets the ball out and his UCL isn't torn near the end. Then there's the Miami playoff game, where we won 34-31, but Miami got 16 points (could have been 18) directly off Josh Allen turnovers (2 picks and a fumble). It should never have been that close. It left the team drained and exhausted. Maybe if it were a cleaner win, we would have had more in the tank for the Bengals. I don't buy this "he is a gunslinger, high risk/high reward thing. Allen is capable of better - see above, in previous years he has done better. But as @Buffalo716 has said, he's also only 1/53 players and he needs some help offensively to get there. He is pushing because he thinks he needs to press like that to win. He needs better decision making, but he also needs an "Easy" button to push.

"His trajectory has taken a dip", by what criteria? -More passing YPG than 2021 -Higher TD%, and while slightly higher INT % (2.5 vs 2.3%) it's actually lower on a per game basis (0.875 vs 0.882) -Higher passer rating (96.6 vs 92.2), higher AY/A (7.7 vs 6.9) and for those who care about it, higher QBR (71.4 vs 60.7) -2nd in the league in total TD (42 vs Mahomes 45) -2nd in the league in total Y/Sc per game (315.3 vs Mahomes 329.9) By what criteria or criterion has his "trajectory taken a dip"? He lost 2 more fumbles than 2021? That's a botched snap and a botched toss to I-Mck behind the LOS And let's skip the "Oh we can't criticize Allen on this board" baloney. I'm on record criticizing Allen plenty. He may be one of the best 3 QB in the league, but we'd like to see him take a step and become the best. There are things he needs to improve to get there. But Allen played at as high or higher level last season as he did in 2021, with a worse-quality WR corps, a worse line in front of him, and a 1st year OC who was not as good at scheming guys open. So this "trajectory has taken a dip, let's see if he can turn it around in the right direction" is just crazy talk IMO until demonstrated otherwise by some objective metric. Stand and Deliver.

Market for a player like Devante Parker, reasonable take Market for 'WR who you hope will be your WR3...."....Factually, there are 31 players (including Parker) with a contract AAV of $11M/yr and above. Who are the "WR who you hope will be your WR3 if all goes right" on this list? Some WR2 there. WR3????? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/sort-average/wide-receiver/limit-100/ Does it strike you as weird that the Pats let Jakobi Meyers (age 26) walk in FA for a 3 yr, $33M contract with the Raiders, and are now extending Devonte Parker (age 30) the same deal? Meyers had ~5 r/g for 57 ypg, 12 y/r and almost 70% catch %. Parker had 2.4 r/g for 42 ypg, 17 y/r and 66% catch %. I don't watch either team unless they're playing the Bills. Obviously Bill O'Brien thinks Parker brings something to the offense that Meyers didn't but if it's a deep threat, paying a 30 yr old seems strange. All true, but it seems to me a big part of the engine that fueled those great gm moves was Tom Brady and the Patriots record of winning championships. Players were willing to take less than market value to play for the Pats with Tom Brady, so he had a ready pipeline to backfill when he traded away peak performers who were starting to clamor for market value pay.

Dryer vent stories. My kid and her BF living in their first apartment. Visiting us. Tells me they don't dry jeans in the dryer that came with the apartment because "it takes too long and uses too much power". Was surprised how fast her jeans dried in our (decade old) dryer. I suggest they call the landlord and request that the dryer vent hose be cleaned. Turned out it was jammed full of lint, almost impacted. Airflow doubled once it was cleaned. Now their jeans dry! Huh. Our friend is a landlord - rents 3 properties. She's a mech E and a bugger for maintenance, does everything by the book. Manual says pull the fridge out and vacuum the coils every year, that's what happens. Always thought her kid wasn't paying much attention. Welp, kid now renting a house in college. Landlord just moved to another city and decided to rent his house instead of selling it. Turns out kid knows way more about home maintenance than her new landlord does! She's been soaking it all up, all along. Dryer wasn't working well. Landlord: "It's old. That's just what happens when dryers get old". Kid pulled the dryer out, noticed the hose was crimped, uncrimped it. Still not working well. Took the hose off the fitting through the house wall, found it was packed full of lint, cleaned that all out. Dryer works now! Huh. @boyst right about fire risk, according to NFPA, dryer fires cause 13,000+ home fires a year and the cause of 1/3 of them is "failure to clean".

Congrats from here too! If you're handy, @Draconator, disregard. If you're not, one popular strategy is to obtain a home warranty. My niece is pretty busy with a demanding job and 3 kids, and fix-and-repair is NOT her husband's thing. So she got one, and has found it's paid off many times over. Her drier breaks? Call the warranty company. AC? Ditto. https://www.realtor.com/advice/buy/what-is-a-home-warranty/ Just be careful to look at reviews and at the fine print of what's covered and what's not. I think this just highlights the need to research the company in question - even Boyst admits it worked out in his wife's favor on her previous house. Same with my niece. We don't have one ourselves, but we're highly fortunate to be able to fix a lot of stuff ourselves.

I believe that's the same study I brought up when folks were all "Tre White should be back on the field already or it means he had some setback!" and I'm like no, the average RTP is 12 months so he's on schedule. There's some points - for example, how do the stats on being in the league 3 years post injury compare to a control group that didn't have an ACL reconstruction? And obviously marginal players who were barely hanging on, are going to be less likely to get further chances vs. starters and stars. But there's a little bit of strangeness here. Lemme see if I can bring in the graph (it should get bigger if you click). TL;DR - the text says that there's a significant difference in AV pre and post injury. But the figure caption says that X is the mean, the center line represents the median - not the average. And it's the center line that is 4.3 and 1.5 (called out in the figure legend as the median). If "X" is the mean, then given the size of the error bars, the difference is much less significant. That's not a nit - it's something the authors and the reviewer should have clarified prior to publication. Whether or not that's an error, we see a similar phenomenon when we look at the more relevant position specific change in AV here. We see that for DBs, the change in AV is small (-4.5) and the error bars straddle 0. It's entirely possible that Tre' won't return to his previous "Takeaway Tre'" , first-team all-Pro level of play. But I don't think that article provides very strong support for an argument that he won't. 🤷‍♂️

Don't buy the "by virtue of their positions". Kelce is split out wide much of the time; given his number of targets, he absolutely functions as a receiver in the Chief's offense, usually a slot but sometimes on deeper routes. Diggs and Kelce were both the #1 receivers on their teams last season, by every metric And, you could say that Diggs has target value in the Bills offense that gores beyond the numbers as well - in fact, given the (correct IMO) argument that the rest of the WR corps was better on the Chiefs than on the Bills, wouldn't you have to argue that Diggs has value that goes beyond the numbers as well? Kelce is "Pat's guy", but Diggs has been "Allen's guy" the last couple years - in fact one of Diggs dissatisfactions may very well be that he was less "The Man" in Dorsey's offense. Anyway, potato potahto - on the fundamental point about the relative quality of the receiving corps last year, we seem to agree KC > Bills. So we can both take the flak for that argument