Beck Water

I've done very detailed posts about this before. I'll try to recap below. And sorry, but I'm disinterested in PFF's offensive line rankings. People who actually play OL or have played OL in the NFL (like Eric Wood) roll their eyes at them. I wish I could find the interview Wood did about this - it's really a must-hear for anyone who is into this kind of analysis. I think a better way to look at it, is how the line enables the skill players to perform. My bottom line is this: the difference between spending adequate or good resources on OL, and insufficient effort - largely is a call made in hindsight depending upon whether or not those efforts actually succeed in producing a capable or good OL. If a player is performing at a high level, can we agree that it no longer matters where he was drafted? Example: today, Milano is not a measly 5th round draft expenditure; he's a top LB in the NFL. If we can't agree on that, there's nothing to talk about here, I'll just regretfully disagree with the logic and common sense of your analysis. But, if we can agree on that, then it follows that we can't just look at building an OL as an exercise in high draft picks and signing top FA. At times, Beane's efforts to field an OL have been wholly inadequate (2018). At other times, he has tried, and sometimes the results of his "try" have worked, but not been sustained - but he still tried, and with similar effort to expended elsewhere. Again, it's not just about high draft picks or big $$. Let's look at KC as a case in point. Pat Mahomes was handed the keys to a top-performing offense in 2018: #5 or 6 in the NFL in 2017 and very efficient. #9 for rush yards but 23 for rush attempts; #7 for passing yards but #17 for passing attempts. Their OL was: LT 4 yr Eric Fisher (1st round) LG 2nd yr Bryan Witzmann (UDFA) Center 4 yr Zach Fulton (6th round) RG 3rd yr Laurent Duvarnay-Tardif (6th round) RT 6th yr Mitchell Schwartz (2nd round) So here we have a good performing OL - 5th in the league for NY/A passing, 2nd in the league for rush Y/A, with a QB most recognize as above average (but not by much) in former #1 overall draft pick Alex Smith. What did they do next? They replaced the entire center of the line, but with whom? LG 4th year Cameron Erving (1st round Browns G/C/RT - but this guy was traded in training camp, he washed off his drafting team after 1 yr) C R Mitch Morse (2nd round) RG R Andrew Wylie (UDFA) I can hear it now - what an ABYSMAL expenditure of OL resources by GM Veach to put in front of their precious franchise 1st year starter - a guy who washed off his first team after a year for his struggling play and injury, a 2nd round rookie, and an UDFA. But the OL spearheaded the #1 offense and catapulted Mahomes to league MVP. It's an assessment of hindsight that the expenditure was adequate, it's not like Veach filled up the OL with 1st round picks and top FA. ---- Yes, Cincy drafted a C in the 1st in 2018. They moved him to LG the following year as part of the OL That Almost Wrecked Burrow, declined his 5th year option, and traded him to the NYG in his 4th year (2021) where he was credited with "a failure to protect the quarterback and establish any sort of efficient pass blocking" and replaced by former Bill and career journeyman Jon Feliciano in 2022. So I'm really not sure what your point is here - the Bengals "GM" gets credit for using a mid-1st round pick who doesn't work out, but Beane doen't get credit for signing a former 2nd round pick FA (Mitch Morse) who is one of the best players on our OL and has been a reliable C for us (knock wood) for 4 years now? Beane doesn't get credit for signing a journeyman in Jon Feliciano who plays well enough to replace Price at C for the playoff-team Giants, but the Bengals are somehow showing good effort by drafting the guy he replaced in their 1st, then trading him in his 4th year? Yes, Cincy drafted Jonah Williams in the 1st. He promptly missed all of his rookie season and half of his 2nd season. What would you say about that if it were the Beane and the Bills? "He drafted a player who can't stay healthy, he hasn't done enough", right? The Bengals did pick up his 5th year option, but he's playing RT not LT and they're rotating him at RT in training camp with....Cody Ford, drafted by the Bills in the 2nd round. C'mon Man. You can't just look at the draft pick, OK? That would almost be like saying the Bills built a great DL by drafting Aaron Maybin in the 1st in 2009 and Marcell Dareus in the 1st 2 years later. (Almost) You say they drafted a T in the 2nd in 2021, but Jackson Carman started 6 games at R. GUARD in 2021 and 0 games in 2022. Facts. The Bengals had the #8 Offense in the league last season. But it's not an effective run offense (despite how it looked against the Bills) - 29th in the league. Aren't you the one who pointed out that the Bills would be down around that territory if it weren't for Josh Allen, as a criticism? And it's very much built off the short passing game and YAC. 49% of Burrow's passing yards are YAC. And despite the focus on a quick-hit passing game, Burrows is still 6th in the league in sacks. It's a good offense, and the team has gone farther than we the last 2 years, but it's a very different offense that places different demands on the OL. And you know, I wouldn't exactly hold up the Bengals drafting as a great example of expending draft resources on OL to good effect or as a team that put great resources into building a stout OL in front of their precious franchise QB. Maybe that's just me. --------- OK so what has Beane done on OL? Well, in his own words for 2018, "I didn't do enough. We were limited by the cap, but I could have done more. I should have done more." So what did he do in 2019? He almost totally rebuilt the line between FA and draft. LT: Dion Dawkins (2nd round 2017). Only returning player. He's been overall Solid. (Picks made before the current regime count according to your examples) C : Mitch Morse was the big FA acquisition. He has also been Solid. RT: drafted Cody Ford in the 2nd round. He did not work out and is on his 3rd team, but apparently we're counting draft expenditures that didn't work out - and he's rotating at RT with the Bengals 1st round pick Jonah Williams, whom you name as an example of good high draft pick expenditure on OL LG: signed Quinton Spain, a 4 year starter for the Titans (who moved on to start 2 years for the Bengals - the team you extoll for their OL build?) RG: signed Jon Feliciano, correctly described as a 'journeyman' - but he was Bobby Johnson's "Guy". Every OL coach has a "Guy" they bring in to teach their techniques and be their wingman in the OL group when they're not around. It Is How It Is. And again - Feliciano isn't crap, he proved to be a capable backup C and started 15 games at C for the Giants last season. Depth/competition: Ty Nsekhe, a 6th year vet who had started 54 games for Washington The result was a much improved line that was able to give Allen some time to develop and #8 and rush yards. (Allen was the #3 rusher on the team) So what happened? For whatever reason, the Bills don't seem able to sustain good play from their acquisitions. Jon Feliciano tore his pec in 2020 and came to camp underweight and underperforming in 2021. I don't think those are things Beane could predict. Quinton Spain apparently had a beef when the team replaced him at LG with Cody Ford. Since Ford could barely lift his arm, and Spain moved on to start 2 years for the Bengals, he may have had a point. But game time roster and playing time decisions rest with the coaches, not Beane Daryl Williams was signed to replace Ford/Nsekhe at RT, and played very well at RT in 2020 - but then Something Happened and he looked like a mess in 2021. I'm not sure what's going on there. Maybe it was coaching? But it's always the intangible how a player will reeact once he "gets paid" as Spain and Williams did. I guess we'll see if Kromer is able to do a better job sustaining and building success on OL. Bottom line: while I would have liked Beane to do more (Boogie Basham instead of Creed Humphrey still chaps my grits), it's somewhat fictious to paint a picture where other teams have "done more" on OL because they used high draft picks (that actually didn't work out), while painting Beane has having done nothing or only scraps. Has he done enough this off season? Time Will Tell

It may have been, it may not have been. Both Beane and McDermott have said if he wanted to, he would be the DC this year. They haven't said that about the other coordinators and position coaches who "sought opportunities elsewhere". I'm certain Da Bears paid Tremaine Edmunds $50 million guaranteed on a 4 yr/$72M contract because 1) they agree with you 2) he had no other suitors. Decisions, Decisions. Who to believe, @eball and others on TBD? Or Matt Eberflus, Ryan Poles, and others who make a living doing football stuff? You got a super-cool avatar that I've loved for years, I'll give you that, but I'm gonna go with the football execs. The post I was responding to pointed out all the talent we have on D and all the talented additions except at MLB, so I don't know about Edmunds as "THE key". But an important part of that #1 or #2 defense, I don't think is arguable and last year was probably Edmunds best.

Who is that he's toasting in coverage? Dean Marlowe?

You make some good points. FWIW, McDermott took the team to playoffs his 1st year with Preston Brown at MLB and ….I’m trying to think who else, Ramon Humber? And Zo Alexander. We weren’t a top-5 or top 6 defense. Middle of the pack. But our secondary and DL weren’t as good. TBH I think one factor in Frazier “leave of absence” was that he was told we’re likely to lose Tremaine Edmunds, we can’t match what he’s gonna get, and we need to spend our high draft picks on offense. So you’re gonna need to look at the guys already on the roster, maybe 3rd round or later rookie, and figure out how to make that work at MLB Frazier concluded it wasn’t going to do his HC quest any good to drop from the #1 or #2 defense of the last two seasons back to 15 or 16, so he bowed out. That’s just my thinking though, who knows? Maybe the people who think it was a force out or a quiet firing are right and I’m wrong. It’s certainly stand-and-deliver time for McDermott as a defensive HC

LOL this is rich. You said, and I quote exactly, “Beane drafted Kincaid in a monkey-see-monkey-do attempt to replicate Kelce. We haven't seen much originality in the team/roster-building strategies on this team.” So you can slam Beane as using a “monkey see monkey do attempt to replicate Kelce” as a draft strategy (instead of, you know, having a team of scouts evaluate talent and building a draft board, then following it) and as lacking originality in team and roster building strategies. But then when called on a shallow approach without substance behind it, you turn around and say “I really don’t think it appropriate to bring Beane up at this point in time in the season” - when that’s EXACTLY WHAT YOU DID, since we all know who is responsible for draft choices and for building the team. SMH.

The reviews of Spector from Day 3 of camp had him looking good. Players can improve in their 2nd year. Of course, looking good in a padless practice, or any practice, and looking good in a game….Two words “Nathan Peterman”

Thanks for the good wishes. We're down to about 25,000 customers without power. Unfortunately my mom's building is still among them, with no restart time estimate as of yet. But the building has emergency generators running some services - the kitchen, AC in the lobby and dining room, the elevators. So the residents can go down to the dining room for meals or the lobby to get cool - AND the fridge circuits are on emergency power so her fridge is apparently still good! The problem with the "probably eating good for a few days" is, hopefully you got a propane grill or charcoal or something 'cuz if you don't have a generator, more likely than not your stove isn't working. Modern gas stoves have a valve in each burner that won't open the gas flow unless there's power to the ignitor - as opposed to the older gas stoves where you could turn the knob and use a match. Safety first, but sometimes it does decrease some utility.

We musta been the lucky part of WNY

I'm no lawyer, but it's my understanding it's pretty much SOP for the accused in a civil suit to counter-sue.

What a fantastic experience for her! I hope she had a blast!

It looked to me as though he was focused on where to direct his sneak and just assumed he'd get the ball in his hands. The equivalent of the classic WR mistake where they start thinking about YAC and don't "look it in". I am so slow. I had to actually watch the clip before the lightbulb dawned that the pass was to Cook and the Bills PR dep't were making a pun.

Sorry, That's a "No Thanks." Brandolini's Law applies here: you don't get to throw out a shallow take in language insulting to Beane and our FO, and then expect other people to invest their time and go into detail debunking the trite take you spent two sentences typing. If you actually lay out a convincing argument from the players the Bills visited or had in pre-draft that Beane was "set" on a "monkey see monkey do" Kelce copycat acquisition vs. just trying to draft the best receiving weapon he could get for the Bills - or lay out a convincing argument that there ISN'T originality in the Bills roster building, I'll be happy to respond. But you lay some work down first. (I'll give you one take - look at all the pre-draft takes on Josh Allen and how QB accuracy never improves that Beane shrugged and ignored - to the Bills benefit)

so looks as though you're correct that Isabella is getting his shot as a potential PR He also apparently made a nice contested catch against Neal:

It's totally reasonable to say that it's early days in camp yet, we haven't even put the pads on, so we won't really know what we've got until September. But the crap about the "originality" in roster building and "monkey see monkey do" is hogwash and hassenpfeffer. Why don't you go to a KC board and tell them John Dorsey drafted Kelce in a "monkey see monkey do" attempt to replicate the success the Pats were having with Gronkowski and Hernandez (still on the Pats team at the time of the 2013 draft)? NWE was the team to beat in the AFC at that time and had just been to a Superbowl and a Conf championship with a heavy reliance on TE play, Clearly Dorsey was just trying to copycat NWE, it had nothing to do with their draft grade on Kelce and the way the board fell or anything like that. That take is as shallow as a Missouri branch in August. My dog can't even get her paws wet, poor girl. Alert the media, 32 GMs study other teams success and consider what aspects of that team build they might want to adopt. The Bills knew they had a big need at receiver. Beane has said they had a 1st round grade on at least one of the WR but he went above the price-point he wanted to use to trade up. They liked Kincaid as a receiver, and when the option to draft him emerged they pounced. They weren't set on "Must. Draft. Our. Own. Kelce"

Pretty sure that was early in the game, and was Bates snapping. But, I recall some very scary snaps from Van Roten where found myself saying "it's a good thing our QB is 6'6" and has great hands"

Morse played 100% of the snaps vs. Minn. so any problems there were between Morse and Allen (the EZ fumble was, IMO, more on Allen) Morse missed three games last season - he did not play @Miami, @Detroit, or @Chicago. Also missed 50% of the home Miami game.

Morse was the center, but to most people the problem with the exchange looked like it rested more with Josh.

But then Cover1 also says:

Heh. We live in a smaller city adjacent to the StL city line. We did not get a text, nor did we get an estimated time of repair. Our power went out at 4 pm and was out 6.5 hrs. The power in my mom's Sr Living facility went out at 7 pm and is still out, but they do have generators keeping their elevators and kitchen running and their lobby cool, so she's OK I'm glad power outages for you aren't common and on pretty quick. Across the state in the Lou, we don't count on that. When there are literally hundreds of outages affecting hundreds of thousands of customers, we know the crews are working full-go and it's still going to take a while, so we just settle in and wait. The problem with cold for a home is, unless you immediately winterize your plumbing, eventually your pipes will freeze and that can take months to put right and repair. That's why, even though we're experienced winter campers in the Adirondacks and have plenty of quilts and warm clothes, we have generators that will run the igniters for our furnaces. I'm not concerned about keeping my franny warm, I can pick up an ax and attack my neighbor's woodpile for that, she won't complain LOL. I'm concerned about avoiding thousands of dollars in plumbing and wall repairs and waiting for months to get the repairs done if it's a widespread problem.

That's a good tip to serve as your own general contractor to save money. Just as a point of reference, our 2- 2000W inverter generators plus the installation of the external plug for them, and an interlock and power-on alarm for the service panel, cost ~$2,000 or 1/5 that amount. These days we could get a lot more generator power for that money! These are sized to run our refrigerators and chest freezer, the power to both our gas furnaces in the winter, the igniters for our gas stovetop, to keep the UPS for our computer, modem, and router charged, plus incidentals like fans, lights and power packs. We can also power refrigerators for several neighbors. We aren't going to be luxuriating in AC'd comfort, but with the help of old-fashioned tricks about where to locate an exhaust fan at night and how to use ice bottles to make the air from a fan cool, we're comfortable and have food/cooking/heat/light. These days, you can get 9000W of ordinary generator for $900 or ~8000W of inverter generator for $1200. 1800W ordinary generator for $370. The interlock and external power plug make the whole setup much more seamless and useful, call it another $300-400 if you find a licensed electrician who's doing small jobs off hours for extra cash. We could have DIY'd it but since it's an obvious mod to the power panel we wanted it all above board in case we need electrical work or a home inspection. I feel this is worth mentioning because we're into self-reliance, and I want people to know that with a bit of sweat equity they can be prepared not just to maintain their own "necessities" of modern life, but to help neighbors during a power outage or disaster. $10k is beyond the reach of a lot of people, but ~$30/month for a couple of years is more within reach for a lot more people. I'm not sure what it is with our location, but it's not uncommon for the power on my side of the street to go out and stay out for 6 hrs to days, while the power across the street stays on. We lucked out last night, our power was only off for 6.5 hrs because it was a more widespread outage including a bunch of commercial customers. When it's just our block and the houses across the alley from us, we've been out for days at times. Wasn't that '77? I was living in Buffalo at the time. I remember the Blizzard of '77, but I don't remember being without power for weeks in '76. Strange.

I guess it depends upon what one calls “affordable”, how often one needs them, and how much stuff there is to run. What we have isn’t as nice in that it requires some (OK, significant by most people’s standards) setup. But it was literally a fraction of what the whole house generators we priced would have been. I would love solar, but we just aren’t sited for it. Plus, around here usually when the power goes out, there is none for at least a while, sometimes a day or more.

Yeah, the slightly humorous thing is that another neighbor across the street was having freezer problems and came over with a big pan of frozen food to fit in our freezer. Said they were gonna toss the hot dogs and cook up all the steak.

So here I am, sitting comfortably on a sofa with a light breeze from a Dyson airblade fan. I don’t have any lights on at the moment, but that’s a matter of choice. There’s gray daylight coming in the window behind me. I could reach out and flip a switch and say “Let There Be Light”, and there would be. A line of thunderstorms came through about 4 pm. I don’t recall it being forecast, but there it was, rain blowing sideways, light show, boom boom *click* Across the street: power. Our side, Us, neighbors, and a couple hundred of our closest friends on a different feed: Nope. Here’s the Facts of Life in the Midwest: when a couple hundred thousand of your closest friends lose power, the power company will remedy the big outages first and a small outage of a few hundred can just pound sand until the power company gets a Round Tuit, maybe for a day or two or three or four, depending. We don’t have the fancy-pants option, but we are prepared. We hauled out the inverter generators, fueled them up, plugged them into the handy-dandy twist-lock exterior outlet, did some jiggery pokery on the electrical panel, flipped some breakers back on, and Voila! Our modem and router work, our fridge and freezer have power, our i-devices can be re-charged, we can use the igniter and turn on our gas stove. And I can sit in front of a fan, or under a ceiling fan, and turn on an LED light or two if I feel like it. So now we start looking out the window. Neighbor we share resources with has a generator, but it isn’t working. Extension cord for her fridge: no problem. She’s got a modern one, 400W. If this goes on pushing 24 hrs, we’ll figure out how to rotate her chest freezer and ours so they both stay cool. 70 year old neighbor: the woman is a Machine. Drives around all day in a Sprinter van, 100 degree heat, doesn’t matter, delivering furniture and food to people in need, women getting an apartment after a stint in DV shelters, folks who’ve been burnt out and the like. Yeah, we’re gonna see her right. What’s the draw on her fridge, can we handle it without rotating stuff? Yeah, we can, and we got 100 ft of 12 AWG extension cord that will get most of the way to her door. But behind that….we don’t have the capacity. Thw neighbor on the other side, who hasn’t had much to do with us since the Great Squirrel LIberation Excapade, I’d let her use my stove or recharge a battery pack so she can charge her phone and stuff, but her fridge is strictly On It’s Own. So here we are, To Have and To Have Not, Midwestern Style. I can make a difference to us, and a couple neighbors, but I know there are a bunch of families who can’t afford it who are gonna lose a fridge full of food, and there’s just not much I can do about that.

I will admit it: I thought Mike McDaniel was a little punk who was way over his head as a HC. But, even though he sounds incoherent to me when he talks to the media, he's apparently Got It Going On when he tries to relate to the players. Last year they believed, and they went hard for him. But their record was still only 9-8. McDaniel took over a Dolphins team that was 10-6 then 9-8 the two years before he took over. And it's not like it was a talentless team, or a team with a bad culture; they actually had a lot of talent. So he, as of now, has not shown that the team has taken a step vs. previous coaches/seasons. That said....a lot of head coaches have a good 1st season because the change brings new energy and buy-in to the team, only to fizzle for various reasons. Matt Nagy: before he arrived 5-11. First year 12-4. Then 8-8 x2, 6-11 FIRED Adam Gase: before he arrived 6-10. First year 10-6. Then 6-10, 7-9, FIRED Todd Bowles: before he arrived 4-12. First year 10-6. Then 5-11 x2, 4-12, FIRED That's not the only pattern of course. My points are: 1) McDaniel didn't achieve a better record with his team during his 1st season 2) McDaniel inherited a team with a lot of talent, including the QB he's apparently gonna ride-and-die with, Waddle, Gesicki, etc 3) It's early days to tell whether McDaniel will, long term, improve the team's record.

On the one hand, that's always been true. Look at our own Thurman Thomas. On the other hand, I think personnel who can truly play multiple roles from multiple formations AT AN ELITE LEVEL on a regular basis, are and will continue to be relatively rare. Or to put it in concrete terms, Gesickis are a lot more common than Gronkowskis or Kelces.