Beck Water

So there's a legit report (Miami Herald veteran reporter) that the Dolphins are in serious trade talks with the Colts Who reported that it's a "done deal"?

Would just like to add, opening Tre White's window to return early, but him not being ready to play when it was "fish or cut bait" time, is part of the roster "squeeze" that led to the Bills waiving Hodgins and losing him - a move that wound up with the Bills bringing guys off their couches at season end just to have bodies. Actually, see above; the Bills have, in the past, been aggressive/optimistic about their anticipated timeline for various players' return. They have kept guys off IR who wound up missing 4-5 games repeatedly.

I'm not saying he'll be released, just to be clear. I actually think the team will keep him. I think they liked how he stepped up last season, and they view him as a guy who has been "playing his way back" from severe injury. Which, make no mistake, is exactly what he's doing. So if it's close, he gets the benefit of the doubt that he's 80% now (say) and can improve to 90%. But I do think there is going to be some angst around who gets kept as a DB, and I don't view Hamlin as a lock. I don't think it's either. It's well documented that pre-draft and in his rookie season Josh's short to intermediate accuracy was poor. Intermediate better his 2nd year, short still poor. 2020, Josh is on record saying he re-worked his throwing motion. 2022, Josh is on record saying that after the injury, he had to revert to the overhead throwing motion he used earlier in his career and away from the rotational throwing motion he developed in 2020 and has used since. I don't think it's conspiracy or wishful thinking to listen to what Allen actually has said and connect the dots that returning to a throwing motion he used when he was documented as less accurate short/intermediate means he probably had some concerns about where the ball would go short to intermediate.

Thought I heard yesterday big return was on Tyrell Shavers ..... Sherfield plays teams. In fact, that's what kept him in the league year 2 through 4...playing teams Now, whether he plays the role on teams that the Bills need, or whether the Bills want him to play teams or focus on playing receiver, can't tell ya But he's a proven teams player in the league.

At 34, Hughes had 19 sacks + QB hits last season. Best year since 2018. Might be something to how he was being coached/used You're right about Epenesa struggling in the run game.

So you were wanting us to trade up to #3 overall or #18 overall? What would you want us to give for that?

Do you have a link or reference to that? The Texans have $4M guaranteed reasons to keep Keenum as the canny vet mentor for CJ Stroud. I agree with those who have said Davis Mills may be the better QB at this point, but that's not the whole of the equation for the Texans.

I didn't even know you'd quoted Zierlein. I reference him because unlike other pundits, his scouting reports stay on file and can be searched for and re-read years later. I shake my head at the grades, but when I go back and re-read one of his scouting reports, I often find him listing as weaknesses the same areas that are being critiqued in a pro player 2 years in. Absolutely you're correct about the crapshoot of the draft. Originally I didn't bring up Beane's 2018 and 2019 drafts because we were drafting higher then (7, 16, and 9 overall) My point was that I think Beane has decided to compensate for late draft choices by trying to keep the "star" pipeline going, which means going for 'diamonds with a flaw' - high ceiling/low floor guys as opposed to steady-eddie lower celing/high floor guys who might contribute more earlier. This has two problems: 1. as @Sierra Foothills pointed out, it's possible HC/LF guys may have a higher bust rate (unproven) 2. it may take these guys a couple years to reach their potential, in which case instead of having a solid player under contract for 5 years, we have a disappointing player who shows flashes under contract for 2 years, improvement in year 3, a strong player in year 4 and 5, then just when he's looking good we need to pay him the big bucks or watch him walk. I don't know what's a better strategy though.

Hamlin is one of (what I see anyway) as a "hidden battle" on the roster. I dunno about "hesitant and fearful". But let's be real. The guy probably had broken ribs. He was undoubtedly limited in the physical conditioning he was allowed to do for several months. Now he's trying to work his way back, and competing against athletes who've been full-go training with all their might since March. I think you're correct that it's closer than many would think, and if it's closer, the Cold Hard Football Assessment would say keep Lewis because of his versatility. Marlowe is older and slower, if it's close you keep Hamlin. I think the Bills are aware that Hamlin is not back to 100% physically and are likely to give him more time to "play himself into shape".

I don't think that @Shaw66 meant that Edmunds was a 2nd round pick that we reached on. I believe someone else may have expressed that POV, but you're correct about Edmunds pre draft. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com for example, graded him as 7.3, perennial all pro. That's higher than Sam Darnold and much higher than Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen; Saquan Barkley was graded slightly higher. I think, or at least what I interpreted him as saying, was that Edmunds was drafted by us (and perhaps passed over by the teams who drafted 1-15) because he was seen as having enormous athletic potential that was not matched by his instincts and mental abilities to diagnose. Lance Zierlein's scouting report is quite interesting https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f ; doesn't that match up with how a lot of folks here critiqued him? I feel he did develop as the Bills wanted him to, but it took a minute. Anyway Shaw can speak for himself obviously but that's how I saw it.

Right. So let's drill into that a bit more. A team has a need for solid starters at many positions, IOL being one. But they also have a need for a handful of stars at some positions, including CB, Edge, and DT on defense; QB, LT and a couple of receivers on offense. Once you're paying a couple of stars at QB, WR, LT, CB, Edge and DT (which is where the Bills are - whether all the guys they're paying as such are stars is another issue), you have to keep the talent pipeline flowing somehow. So how do you get your stars? Beane's philosophy appears to be, to try to accomplish that by using 1st round picks to take a shot at physical freaks who have a gap in their football resume, valuing that above guys who looked like "good solid starters". The "sure bet" move he made was trading our 1st in 2020 for Stefon Diggs, a 5th rounder who'd played his way into being seen as a good use of a 1st round pick. But since he's been drafting in the back half of the 1st round, all his 1st round picks have fit this mold - Rousseau (minimial football as a college player); Elam (strong man CB but questions about his zone abilities); Kincaid (lower level of competition and incomplete as a TE). I can't say that it's wrong as an approach, but it will be intrinsically more boom-or-bust and lend itself to 2nd guessing. I think Beane may extend it a bit too much to the 2nd and 3rd round, though I like this year's picks. The overall concept is that it's easier to pick up "good solid starters" who have proven themselves as having NFL abilities, on the FA market than it is to pick up "stars", so you better try to grow your own, there.

TBH, I think your friend is in a different situation than most players who are trying to make the roster. As a LS, if the team already has a LS on the roster, he knows there can be only one and he's for reals there to fill out camp or maybe in case of injury. But for a guy like Andy Isabella who still has dreams of playing a significant role on a competitive team, or an UDFA like Tyrell Shavers who has dreams of making an NFL roster and who has been out there making some catches and hearing cheers from the crowd watching training camp or pre-season games, it's different. They have to believe in themselves and believe they have a chance. Still, I agree with you that by the end of preseason, there are only a few positions up for grabs, there's a heirarchy, and most guys know that it's coming. The anxiety may be whether they will be tapped for the practice squad and if they have multiple offers, stay here or go elsewhere? We knew a guy at work years back who had gone to camp with the Oakland Raiders (when they were a perennial contending team) as a nose tackle. He was the most physically intimidating and mentally aggressive person I have ever met. He said he wasn't surprised to be cut at the end of summer and didn't try to find another team because he decided he didn't "like pain enough". He had used his football scholarship to complete a degree as an industrial engineer, so he did ok professionally.

Good post. I see the timing of the Oliver extension and so forth a bit differently. Edmunds was entering free agency. We all know "tampering" occurs in the form of agent- FO discussions in bars during the Senior Bowl and so forth. I personally think the Bills wanted to re-up Edmunds, but by the time FA hit, they knew they weren't going to be able to get it done at a price they were willing to pay. The Bills had already exercised Oliver's 5th year option, so they had a choice about whether and when to negotiate and re-sign him. They actually did re-sign him on June 3rd, and likely because Oliver decided he was more interested in getting a big dose of guaranteed $$ for his kid and his horses, than in holding out for top dollar. It's notable that Oliver signed a contract reported to include offset language and for about $10M fully guaranteed at signing, than Edmunds did. You're correct about LB being "not a premium position" in the sense that the top-5 ILBs are paid about the same as the top 6-10 DTs, but Oliver is #12 on the DT AAV list right now, so I'm not sure letting Edmunds walk when he received a #4 AAV LB contract while re-signing Oliver as the #12 AAV DT quite supports your argument about the Bills seeing Oliver as more important at DT than Edmunds was at LB. I agree with you in hoping that McDermott has a scheme in mind to make up for the loss of Edmunds, and I've pointed out in the past what he did in 2017 with Preston Brown, Ramon Humber, and Zo Alexander. I also think McDermott knows that the D will NOT be as good overall this season, and is just hoping it is "enough" and it peaks at the right time. Why not Aly and AJ?

I hear he's been linked to the Bills

He's been injured thru preseason. He only came back to practice this past week. Snap counts aren't out yet, but he started the game and likely played just a handful of snaps. No team is going to pay a guy $18M AAV and $50M guaranteed ($36.8M at signing) then bench him before he plays a regular season snap. That's a new height of delusion even for you.

Didn't he have a ruptured Achilles tendon? Those are hard to come back from. I'm not persuaded that Ike Boettger is going to come back. And frankly, OJ Howard kind of seemed marginal before the injury. On the other hand, he struggled with previous ankle injuries. Sometimes they build up. Because it would have made so much sense in a year where the Bills were expected to contend? And the trade market woulda been so hot for a guy on a fully guaranteed 5th year option? Come on, Man.

Good write-up as usual, Gunner. I agree with most of it. Couple of questions: what did you think of Edwards? I've read here that Morse got blown up, but I believe at least one, maybe both, were on Edwards. It may be just needing more experience in the Bills scheme or messing up a play call. In any event it illustrates the difficulty of evaluating OL play, when it's not always clear whose assignment got blown. A couple things here. One is: is Neal a pre-season hero? He's been the backup to Taron Johnson for a couple of years now, and has NOT looked good when he's played for him in the regular season. Did he really take a step, or is he leveling-up to fight for a job and then when it's won, we'll see him back off? Which brings me to.... I know some here have PTSD over Cam's play last year especially in the Minn game, but the Bills see Cam Lewis as competing for a safety spot, as well...then bringing that versatility to also fill in at nickle and CB. So....are we confident that Damar has beaten out Cam Lewis? I'm going to put these both here, because I believe they illustrate a draft pick pattern of Beane's, that he really needs to re-evaluate. I know you hold that they pre-ordained picking a 1st round CB in 2022. I'm not so sure of that, but whether they did, or whether they honestly felt Elam and Epenesa were the BPA on their board, it simply begs the question of why they felt that. I think Beane's pattern is to try to compensate for picking late in the round by choosing high ceiling, low floor guys - guys who have elite athletic potential but have flaws in their game. In Epenesa's case, he was a throwback to a trait of former Bills regimes of asking a player to physically re-make himself. In Elam's case, they were asking a player to mentally re-make himself. In Elam's case, it does not appear to be working. It's a big ask for a press man corner to remake himself as a zone player. And I don't know why the Bills aren't asking Elam to practice in oven mitts. In Epenesa's case, it appears to be working only in flashes. Anyway, I don't know what the answer is to drafting at the bottom of the 1st round. Statistically last time I looked, IIRC there isn't a huge difference between the bottom half of the 1st round and the top of the 2nd in terms of draft pick success. So I can't entirely blame Beane for looking for boom-or-bust picks there.

Oh, wow. I disagree with this. I felt his play took a dip in 2020 mid-season but came back better in 2021 and that last year was his best season in a while.

I'm sorry, Man. Great tribute RIP to Shawn and condolences to you

I'm not sure what you mean by "PUP bubble". PUP, or "physically unable to perform", only applies to players who come into training camp injured and never take a snap. Once a guy takes a snap in preseason, there is no "PUP bubble" because PUP can not be used. Perhaps you mean "IR bubble"? If he's IR'd, he must miss 4 regular season games. The challenge is to put him on IR eligible to return, he has to start the season on the 53 man roster, then go on IR. So someone has to have a "handshake deal" to take a cut, allow McGovern to pass to the 53 man roster then be IR'd, and then re-sign. I'm curious if anyone knows who has been taking McGovern's snaps at LG and how they're doing? Is it Edwards?

I don't find it difficult to believe that you find it difficult to believe that another player, playing out of position, could be worse than Brown. I'm not arguing that Brown is playing well, mind. Just that the solution is not to create two problems.

Um, no. No, he was not

Well, Yes, actually. They could be worse than Brown.

Oh, Man! Sad news for a guy who showed a lot of heart.

Well, couple if things if your take on the dynamic is correct. First is, if Rodgers is their bright new shiny whose presence will lift them to the playoffs, what happens if he falters as he did at times last season? Rodgers had 5 games where he passed for less than 200 yards last season, no games where he passed for more than 300 yards, and in the game where he came closest (291 yds in a loss to Detroit) he threw 3 interceptions. Second is, if Rodgers is like a God and the coaches are looking up to him, what if he needs some hard coaching or a kick in the butt? Who kicks God in the butt?