Beck Water

I didn't even know you'd quoted Zierlein. I reference him because unlike other pundits, his scouting reports stay on file and can be searched for and re-read years later. I shake my head at the grades, but when I go back and re-read one of his scouting reports, I often find him listing as weaknesses the same areas that are being critiqued in a pro player 2 years in. Absolutely you're correct about the crapshoot of the draft. Originally I didn't bring up Beane's 2018 and 2019 drafts because we were drafting higher then (7, 16, and 9 overall) My point was that I think Beane has decided to compensate for late draft choices by trying to keep the "star" pipeline going, which means going for 'diamonds with a flaw' - high ceiling/low floor guys as opposed to steady-eddie lower celing/high floor guys who might contribute more earlier. This has two problems: 1. as @Sierra Foothills pointed out, it's possible HC/LF guys may have a higher bust rate (unproven) 2. it may take these guys a couple years to reach their potential, in which case instead of having a solid player under contract for 5 years, we have a disappointing player who shows flashes under contract for 2 years, improvement in year 3, a strong player in year 4 and 5, then just when he's looking good we need to pay him the big bucks or watch him walk. I don't know what's a better strategy though.

Hamlin is one of (what I see anyway) as a "hidden battle" on the roster. I dunno about "hesitant and fearful". But let's be real. The guy probably had broken ribs. He was undoubtedly limited in the physical conditioning he was allowed to do for several months. Now he's trying to work his way back, and competing against athletes who've been full-go training with all their might since March. I think you're correct that it's closer than many would think, and if it's closer, the Cold Hard Football Assessment would say keep Lewis because of his versatility. Marlowe is older and slower, if it's close you keep Hamlin. I think the Bills are aware that Hamlin is not back to 100% physically and are likely to give him more time to "play himself into shape".

I don't think that @Shaw66 meant that Edmunds was a 2nd round pick that we reached on. I believe someone else may have expressed that POV, but you're correct about Edmunds pre draft. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com for example, graded him as 7.3, perennial all pro. That's higher than Sam Darnold and much higher than Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen; Saquan Barkley was graded slightly higher. I think, or at least what I interpreted him as saying, was that Edmunds was drafted by us (and perhaps passed over by the teams who drafted 1-15) because he was seen as having enormous athletic potential that was not matched by his instincts and mental abilities to diagnose. Lance Zierlein's scouting report is quite interesting https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f ; doesn't that match up with how a lot of folks here critiqued him? I feel he did develop as the Bills wanted him to, but it took a minute. Anyway Shaw can speak for himself obviously but that's how I saw it.

Right. So let's drill into that a bit more. A team has a need for solid starters at many positions, IOL being one. But they also have a need for a handful of stars at some positions, including CB, Edge, and DT on defense; QB, LT and a couple of receivers on offense. Once you're paying a couple of stars at QB, WR, LT, CB, Edge and DT (which is where the Bills are - whether all the guys they're paying as such are stars is another issue), you have to keep the talent pipeline flowing somehow. So how do you get your stars? Beane's philosophy appears to be, to try to accomplish that by using 1st round picks to take a shot at physical freaks who have a gap in their football resume, valuing that above guys who looked like "good solid starters". The "sure bet" move he made was trading our 1st in 2020 for Stefon Diggs, a 5th rounder who'd played his way into being seen as a good use of a 1st round pick. But since he's been drafting in the back half of the 1st round, all his 1st round picks have fit this mold - Rousseau (minimial football as a college player); Elam (strong man CB but questions about his zone abilities); Kincaid (lower level of competition and incomplete as a TE). I can't say that it's wrong as an approach, but it will be intrinsically more boom-or-bust and lend itself to 2nd guessing. I think Beane may extend it a bit too much to the 2nd and 3rd round, though I like this year's picks. The overall concept is that it's easier to pick up "good solid starters" who have proven themselves as having NFL abilities, on the FA market than it is to pick up "stars", so you better try to grow your own, there.

TBH, I think your friend is in a different situation than most players who are trying to make the roster. As a LS, if the team already has a LS on the roster, he knows there can be only one and he's for reals there to fill out camp or maybe in case of injury. But for a guy like Andy Isabella who still has dreams of playing a significant role on a competitive team, or an UDFA like Tyrell Shavers who has dreams of making an NFL roster and who has been out there making some catches and hearing cheers from the crowd watching training camp or pre-season games, it's different. They have to believe in themselves and believe they have a chance. Still, I agree with you that by the end of preseason, there are only a few positions up for grabs, there's a heirarchy, and most guys know that it's coming. The anxiety may be whether they will be tapped for the practice squad and if they have multiple offers, stay here or go elsewhere? We knew a guy at work years back who had gone to camp with the Oakland Raiders (when they were a perennial contending team) as a nose tackle. He was the most physically intimidating and mentally aggressive person I have ever met. He said he wasn't surprised to be cut at the end of summer and didn't try to find another team because he decided he didn't "like pain enough". He had used his football scholarship to complete a degree as an industrial engineer, so he did ok professionally.

Good post. I see the timing of the Oliver extension and so forth a bit differently. Edmunds was entering free agency. We all know "tampering" occurs in the form of agent- FO discussions in bars during the Senior Bowl and so forth. I personally think the Bills wanted to re-up Edmunds, but by the time FA hit, they knew they weren't going to be able to get it done at a price they were willing to pay. The Bills had already exercised Oliver's 5th year option, so they had a choice about whether and when to negotiate and re-sign him. They actually did re-sign him on June 3rd, and likely because Oliver decided he was more interested in getting a big dose of guaranteed $$ for his kid and his horses, than in holding out for top dollar. It's notable that Oliver signed a contract reported to include offset language and for about $10M fully guaranteed at signing, than Edmunds did. You're correct about LB being "not a premium position" in the sense that the top-5 ILBs are paid about the same as the top 6-10 DTs, but Oliver is #12 on the DT AAV list right now, so I'm not sure letting Edmunds walk when he received a #4 AAV LB contract while re-signing Oliver as the #12 AAV DT quite supports your argument about the Bills seeing Oliver as more important at DT than Edmunds was at LB. I agree with you in hoping that McDermott has a scheme in mind to make up for the loss of Edmunds, and I've pointed out in the past what he did in 2017 with Preston Brown, Ramon Humber, and Zo Alexander. I also think McDermott knows that the D will NOT be as good overall this season, and is just hoping it is "enough" and it peaks at the right time. Why not Aly and AJ?

I hear he's been linked to the Bills

He's been injured thru preseason. He only came back to practice this past week. Snap counts aren't out yet, but he started the game and likely played just a handful of snaps. No team is going to pay a guy $18M AAV and $50M guaranteed ($36.8M at signing) then bench him before he plays a regular season snap. That's a new height of delusion even for you.

Didn't he have a ruptured Achilles tendon? Those are hard to come back from. I'm not persuaded that Ike Boettger is going to come back. And frankly, OJ Howard kind of seemed marginal before the injury. On the other hand, he struggled with previous ankle injuries. Sometimes they build up. Because it would have made so much sense in a year where the Bills were expected to contend? And the trade market woulda been so hot for a guy on a fully guaranteed 5th year option? Come on, Man.

Good write-up as usual, Gunner. I agree with most of it. Couple of questions: what did you think of Edwards? I've read here that Morse got blown up, but I believe at least one, maybe both, were on Edwards. It may be just needing more experience in the Bills scheme or messing up a play call. In any event it illustrates the difficulty of evaluating OL play, when it's not always clear whose assignment got blown. A couple things here. One is: is Neal a pre-season hero? He's been the backup to Taron Johnson for a couple of years now, and has NOT looked good when he's played for him in the regular season. Did he really take a step, or is he leveling-up to fight for a job and then when it's won, we'll see him back off? Which brings me to.... I know some here have PTSD over Cam's play last year especially in the Minn game, but the Bills see Cam Lewis as competing for a safety spot, as well...then bringing that versatility to also fill in at nickle and CB. So....are we confident that Damar has beaten out Cam Lewis? I'm going to put these both here, because I believe they illustrate a draft pick pattern of Beane's, that he really needs to re-evaluate. I know you hold that they pre-ordained picking a 1st round CB in 2022. I'm not so sure of that, but whether they did, or whether they honestly felt Elam and Epenesa were the BPA on their board, it simply begs the question of why they felt that. I think Beane's pattern is to try to compensate for picking late in the round by choosing high ceiling, low floor guys - guys who have elite athletic potential but have flaws in their game. In Epenesa's case, he was a throwback to a trait of former Bills regimes of asking a player to physically re-make himself. In Elam's case, they were asking a player to mentally re-make himself. In Elam's case, it does not appear to be working. It's a big ask for a press man corner to remake himself as a zone player. And I don't know why the Bills aren't asking Elam to practice in oven mitts. In Epenesa's case, it appears to be working only in flashes. Anyway, I don't know what the answer is to drafting at the bottom of the 1st round. Statistically last time I looked, IIRC there isn't a huge difference between the bottom half of the 1st round and the top of the 2nd in terms of draft pick success. So I can't entirely blame Beane for looking for boom-or-bust picks there.

Oh, wow. I disagree with this. I felt his play took a dip in 2020 mid-season but came back better in 2021 and that last year was his best season in a while.

I'm sorry, Man. Great tribute RIP to Shawn and condolences to you

I'm not sure what you mean by "PUP bubble". PUP, or "physically unable to perform", only applies to players who come into training camp injured and never take a snap. Once a guy takes a snap in preseason, there is no "PUP bubble" because PUP can not be used. Perhaps you mean "IR bubble"? If he's IR'd, he must miss 4 regular season games. The challenge is to put him on IR eligible to return, he has to start the season on the 53 man roster, then go on IR. So someone has to have a "handshake deal" to take a cut, allow McGovern to pass to the 53 man roster then be IR'd, and then re-sign. I'm curious if anyone knows who has been taking McGovern's snaps at LG and how they're doing? Is it Edwards?

I don't find it difficult to believe that you find it difficult to believe that another player, playing out of position, could be worse than Brown. I'm not arguing that Brown is playing well, mind. Just that the solution is not to create two problems.

Um, no. No, he was not

Well, Yes, actually. They could be worse than Brown.

Oh, Man! Sad news for a guy who showed a lot of heart.

Well, couple if things if your take on the dynamic is correct. First is, if Rodgers is their bright new shiny whose presence will lift them to the playoffs, what happens if he falters as he did at times last season? Rodgers had 5 games where he passed for less than 200 yards last season, no games where he passed for more than 300 yards, and in the game where he came closest (291 yds in a loss to Detroit) he threw 3 interceptions. Second is, if Rodgers is like a God and the coaches are looking up to him, what if he needs some hard coaching or a kick in the butt? Who kicks God in the butt?

Well, that might depend upon what argument, exactly, you're trying to make. I started out reacting to this post of yours: You went on to suggest that just about any guy who can thump could play MLB for the Bills: To the first, I understood your argument to be that the Bills haven't done more to address MLB because they believe, like you, that the MLB is the least important guy on the defense. He's just the communication relay who calls out the play to the D and then the "sponge" who mops up the debris by finishing the business the other players have directed his way, if I'm understanding you. I don't agree that McDermott and Beane think the MLB is the "least important player on defense". They don't think it's the most important, clearly; McDermott insists on a solid DL rotation and Beane spends the most, positionally, on secondary followed by DL. But that's in large part a "numbers game", having 4 DL on the field at all times and 5 CB. It doesn't mean the LB and especially the MLB is the "least important". We have some guys here who have forgotten more ball than I'll ever know, but I think this 'guy who runs around in the middle and makes tackles because the guys all around the perimeter have forced the play to the inside" you write represents a tremendously naive idea of the MLB's role and responsibilities. He has to choose the correct play variant for what the offense shows immediately pre and then post snap and cue the rest of the team to react. If he's late in making that read or fuzzy in communicating it, there will be defensive breakdowns. He has to read the run play and choose the correct gap to defend, but yet not get "sucked in" by play action. Some of these were areas Edmunds struggled with early in his career and got rightly called out here! The MLB needs to be an aggressive tackler, sure, but to do that, the MLB needs to understand where he should be to position himself to make that tackle. And then there's pass defense, and in McD's defense, ideally the MLB has a huge role in zone pass defense which means understanding how his coverage responsibility shifts and re-shifts with different route choices the receivers show post-snap. Gone are the days when the NFL MLB was a big gimondulous beast of a see-ball-get-ball thumper, true, but that hardly means the importance is gone. So only this year's acquisitions and only making moves to sign players from OUTSIDE the team count as "something". Re-signings, extensions and last year's moves don't count. Got it. There was a time when Pittsburgh had the "best" linebackers, "Linebacker U". And in that day, the philosophy was draft in the mid-rounds, and take 3 years to develop. And Beane has a habit of drafting for potential, even in the high rounds - higher ceiling, lower floor guys. Edmunds was an example! The point I was trying to make is this: Beane is like a poker player. He has ideas of how he wants to build his winning hand, but he also reacts to what cards are available and what the other players show. There are times when he has a position, or a position group, that he doesn't invest as many resources as he could or perhaps should. But that doesn't mean the position or position group isn't important, it just means the cards for that hand didn't fall his way, so he did what he could with what was available. My analogy was OL last season (where except for Saffold, he stayed pat) and slot receiver (where you might say the only thing he did was acquire Crowder and draft a 5th round pick who would be a long shot to consider this season; he also re-signed McKenzie and brought in Tavon Austin). It's not that Beane thinks OL or slot are the "least important on offense". It's that he has to build a team, not acquire the best player at every position. So some positions get what he hopes is "enough". If someone they thought was a brilliant potential slot fell to them in the draft or was available in FA, would they have invested the resource? I would say "yes". I would say the same thing about a prospect they thought was "all that and a bag of chips" in FA or draft for what they want at MLB. But that didn't happen, and he had other team needs to address. OK, I guess that's a long winded spiel for you to respond "I'm making your argument for you" again, but I don't think I can be any clearer. TL;DR: the amount of resources Beane puts into a specific position or position group in a specific off-season or draft, does not indicate either his perception of that position's importance to McDermott and the Bills or its importance in the modern NFL. Peace out.

Obviously you'll have a lot of support for that POV here at TBD and if I take a more moderate position, experience suggests I'll be painted as a fan-boy. I just don't think it's logical to suggest that a 5'7", 173 late-round pick stays in the league 6 years unless there's more to him than fun-loving gadget guy (or the coaches are mysteriously building a winning, contending team by being stupid, which is another popular viewpoint here at times, but I digress) . I think the truth is more nuanced. At times, none of the things you say were true, except the hands; he did body-catch balls consistently. He made tough catches sometimes. He tracked the ball and got there sometimes. He ran solid routes sometimes. He made the catch in traffic sometimes. And he understood the game. At different times, all of the things you say were true. I wouldn't say "not cerebral" (again, you don't have a 5'7" 173 lb guy in the NFL for 6 years if he doesn't have a head for the game). I would say "lost focus" (at bad times. In the end, you're right, he wasn't 'enough' as a starting player, not because he couldn't do any of those things, but because he couldn't become consistent at doing them. That's not uncommon for lower-tier guys who work their way up to a shot to start. They got that shot because they COULD do those things. Some make good; some lose that shot because they can't do the things they can do, consistently. It's like Fitzpatrick at QB. At times, he could make those jaw-dropping throws. Then there were the pick-6s thrown at the worst possible time. Not consistent enough. The thing is, I think many of those things have been said of Andy Isabella - not a good or consistent route-runner, doesn't catch well in traffic, body-catches, doesn't track the deep ball well - but never, for whatever reason, got used as a gadget guy either. So we'll see. Maybe he will be that guy who gets his 3rd chance and makes good.

I dunno. In the past, McDermott has used his media sessions to fire a "shot across the bows" to send a message to a player or group of players on more than 1 occasion. How effective "coaching by media interaction" might be, I don't know, but in this instantly-connected media age, I can see it being useful if it becomes clear that what coaches say to the player is getting put through some kind of internal spin and coming out from the player to the media as different. I thought in his comments to Katherine Fitzgerald, Dodson was either being disingenuous or clueless. If a player is losing it in practice, and is drawing the attention of his position coach, his head coach, the director of player personnel, then after practice the head trainer and the director of player engagement, I don't think it's "everything is OK". I think they're concerned. Hopefully this is all pre-emptive concern to nudge things onto the right track before they run too far off and to set a standard at least one player is capable to reach. Not "helmet gate" per se, but everything around it

That was my impression. If Queen were all that and a bag of chips at LB, why would the Ravens have traded a 2nd and 5th for the privilege of signing Smith to a record-setting contract? But Smith is a 'rising tide' and they say it lifts all boats.

One of the Deep Mysteries of Life to me: how Dorsey could say, with a straight face, that Allen and Barkley graded out about the same. The only thing I can think of is using some kind of "do your job" grading system, where if the OL lets a rusher through right away for a sack, that doesn't count against the QB. But when the QB's reaction to said sack is to throw up a jump ball 6 yds behind the LOS with defenders in the area, I would think that still needs to count against him. Ditto when the reaction to a busted screen play is to throw off-target past an onrushing defender and with others in the area (the pick) Dirt that puppy or throw it out of bounds. Disagree, and actually Allen said as much - that the receiver got "hung up a bit" and he either needed to "get it to him or get it in the dirt". I think the fact that the Bills have 4 WR with a very similar physical type on their roster (Shorter, Shavers, Ateman, Patman) says they really want one of them on the 53. Which is why I didn't think Isabella had a shot. But McDermott et al are making me second guess myself.

Not to mention Gesicki listed as a WR.

Well, this amused me greatly Juju SS is fresh off a 977 yd, 77.2% catch% season with the Superbowl champions. That's not a fluke, he has 3 similar seasons, though he's probably more a "good #2" than a #1. Davante Parker was solid last year in NWE. Gesicki was a solid >50 receptions, 700 yd guy for 3 years in Mia before McDaniel got there. Maybe if they all meet in NE and stink, stank, stunk *whispers* maybe the problem is not the receivers