Beck Water

Y to both

Kirksey injured a hammy and missed most of training camp, including all 3 preseason games. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/what-led-to-kirkseys-release-from-texans/ar-AA1fUg5y

The people saying "center isn't that important they just need to snap the ball to the QB" need to re-boot; I thought the critical role of the C in setting protections and communicating changes in protection was well-known by now FWIW, Humphrey pre-draft said he could play G. What he had to back that up, I don't know. Maybe the Bills thought "not enough evidence there". Or, maybe Beane honestly felt Cody Ford could still "be that guy" in 2021. I don't know.

Pelissero says "as part of", has not said that's the entirety of the compensation. I will say that Boogie Basham at pick 61 when Creed Humphrey was drafted 2 picks later has been "***** in my grits" for 3 years. Fortunately, I don't eat grits at home, being, in fact, a DamnedYankee. But still. I've just thrown down that I thought we should have tried if Humphrey could play G and had a C in waiting. But if you're talking about that fumble in the EZ, I'm pretty sure that was on Josh.

Maybe we should look at the whole draft, or at least the early days? 2019: 1. Ed Oliver - can ball, just re-upped 2. Cody Ford - Looked promising his rookie season. I think injuries ruined him, it happens. 3. Devin Singletary - solid RB for 4 years behind "meh" OL, solid pass pro for 3. Got our Round 3 worth from him. 3. Knox - quality player, re-signed Early round hit rate: 2/4, 3/4 if you count Singletary which I think one should 2020: 1. (Stefon "I am Him" Diggs) 2. AJ Epenesa - 6.5 sacks, 10 QB hits last season. If he can improve on that this season, we've got something. Since McD rotates DL, #4 playing 40% of snaps. 3. Zack Moss - brought Nyheim Hines in trade, who locked down KR/PR until his unfortunate close encounter with a JetSki 4. Gabe Davis - #2 WR for the team. He ain't Tee Higgins, Devonta Smith, or Jalen Waddle, but he wasn't drafted in the 1st/high 2nd either. Solid value in the 4th. Hit rate: 2/4 (3/4 if you count Diggs) 2021: 1. Greg Rousseau - 8 sacks 14 QB hits last season. Playing 49-56% of snaps. Looks promising. 2. Boogie Basham - just traded, we'll see what he brought. 3. Spencer Brown - jury is still out. has not locked down a spot. 1/3, maybe 2/3 if Spencer improves. 2022: 1. Kaiir Elam - I don't know that I'd bet money on that #4 CB slot being locked down with him, but that could be me. Has a learning curve. 2. James Cook - looking promising 3. Terrell Bernard - was competing for starting MLB. We'll see. Too soon to tell, might be 1/3, might be 3/3 when the dust settles 2023: 1. Dalton Kincaid - looking promising 2. O'Cyrus Torrance - looking promising 3. Dorian Williams - has a learning curve, despite folks wanting to hand him the MLB gig Too soon to tell, might be 2/3, might be 3/3 Kinda bugs me when a guy looks at 6 out of 9-11 picks 🤷‍♀️ and also lists as a problem, a 3rd round RB who gave us 4 solid seasons.

He's not. It's announced he'll stay on PUP, meaning he must miss the 1st 4 games.

I'll put this here. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-practice-squad-salary-eligibility-rules-2023/vuvavtn3mbkq68spwkb5k8pz Of the 16 players, 6 can have "no limit on the number of accrued seasons" Just adding information to your information. Interesting on Phillips.

Case Keenum just signed a 2 year $6.25M contract with Houston, $4M guaranteed, in March. Phillips is a guard. Galvin is a rookie UDFA, so there it will just come down to whether we like him more than we like Gouraige and whether he'd rather live on Detroit's PS or ours; he's not likely to be The Answer at reserve OT.

First off, note my specific phrasing: "the Bills have, in the past, been aggressive/optimistic about their anticipated timeline for various players' return. They have kept guys off IR who wound up missing 4-5 games repeatedly." (I'm actually mistaken - it's more often missing 3 games and playing in the 4th, but ineffective - and in 2020, IR was 3 games) That's not quite the same as "aggressive return from injury" and I'm not sure what Google will get you on that. The most public and google-able examples of aggressive return from injury: 2022. Gabe Davis, reported ankle sprain prior to week 2. Missed Week 2 game; questionable for week 3 and 4 but played. After the season, Davis acknowledged and Beane stated that the "nagging injury" had bothered him all season. Maybe if he sat for a couple weeks and healed, he would have been better thru the season? 2020. Cole Beasley. Missed one game with a "knee" injury. Played 3 playoff games. After the season, it was reported he was playing on a broken leg. Maybe the decision to do that had some impact on Beasley's long term athleticism? He contributed heavily in 2 of 3 playoff games 2021. Injured week 8. Listed as "Questionable" for week 9 but played. It was later reported (by his agent) he was playing through cracked ribs. It was notable that his targets and yardage plummeted week 9-12 A few examples of the not-IRing injured player but having them miss an equivalent-to-IR number of games: 2020 Matt Milano. Injured Week 4. No IR. Missed 2 games Week 5 and Week 6. Played Week 7 and Week 8 but minimal snaps, wearing brace, and plainly ineffective - couldn't even lift his arm to tackle. Went on IR Week 9 for 3 weeks (in 2020, IR was 3 weeks). If that's not aggressive with an injury, don't know what is. 2020 Dawson Knox. Injured Week 5. Stayed in the game and threw TD pass with broken hand, had surgery. Missed 3 weeks, (was on Covid list but probably wouldn't have played, for 2 of those 3). Played in his 4th week, but only about 1/3 of his usual snaps and clearly couldn't block. There are more, but I'm out of time to dig. Good luck with your Google. Bottom line, I think it's a myth that the Bills are particularly conservative with injuries. It depends upon the injury, and of course the player. Some players want to play and will lobby for that pretty ferociously. I'm not trying to say the Bills are careless with players health either, but at the end of the day it's football and they're a football team.

Take it a step further and say....when it comes to key games, they can hinge on half a dozen plays muffed or made. We need to be able to count on our #2 to make these plays. If our #2 is Davis, the answer to "can we count on him?" is: "perhaps"

So where is it coming from?

So there's a legit report (Miami Herald veteran reporter) that the Dolphins are in serious trade talks with the Colts Who reported that it's a "done deal"?

Would just like to add, opening Tre White's window to return early, but him not being ready to play when it was "fish or cut bait" time, is part of the roster "squeeze" that led to the Bills waiving Hodgins and losing him - a move that wound up with the Bills bringing guys off their couches at season end just to have bodies. Actually, see above; the Bills have, in the past, been aggressive/optimistic about their anticipated timeline for various players' return. They have kept guys off IR who wound up missing 4-5 games repeatedly.

I'm not saying he'll be released, just to be clear. I actually think the team will keep him. I think they liked how he stepped up last season, and they view him as a guy who has been "playing his way back" from severe injury. Which, make no mistake, is exactly what he's doing. So if it's close, he gets the benefit of the doubt that he's 80% now (say) and can improve to 90%. But I do think there is going to be some angst around who gets kept as a DB, and I don't view Hamlin as a lock. I don't think it's either. It's well documented that pre-draft and in his rookie season Josh's short to intermediate accuracy was poor. Intermediate better his 2nd year, short still poor. 2020, Josh is on record saying he re-worked his throwing motion. 2022, Josh is on record saying that after the injury, he had to revert to the overhead throwing motion he used earlier in his career and away from the rotational throwing motion he developed in 2020 and has used since. I don't think it's conspiracy or wishful thinking to listen to what Allen actually has said and connect the dots that returning to a throwing motion he used when he was documented as less accurate short/intermediate means he probably had some concerns about where the ball would go short to intermediate.

Thought I heard yesterday big return was on Tyrell Shavers ..... Sherfield plays teams. In fact, that's what kept him in the league year 2 through 4...playing teams Now, whether he plays the role on teams that the Bills need, or whether the Bills want him to play teams or focus on playing receiver, can't tell ya But he's a proven teams player in the league.

At 34, Hughes had 19 sacks + QB hits last season. Best year since 2018. Might be something to how he was being coached/used You're right about Epenesa struggling in the run game.

So you were wanting us to trade up to #3 overall or #18 overall? What would you want us to give for that?

Do you have a link or reference to that? The Texans have $4M guaranteed reasons to keep Keenum as the canny vet mentor for CJ Stroud. I agree with those who have said Davis Mills may be the better QB at this point, but that's not the whole of the equation for the Texans.

I didn't even know you'd quoted Zierlein. I reference him because unlike other pundits, his scouting reports stay on file and can be searched for and re-read years later. I shake my head at the grades, but when I go back and re-read one of his scouting reports, I often find him listing as weaknesses the same areas that are being critiqued in a pro player 2 years in. Absolutely you're correct about the crapshoot of the draft. Originally I didn't bring up Beane's 2018 and 2019 drafts because we were drafting higher then (7, 16, and 9 overall) My point was that I think Beane has decided to compensate for late draft choices by trying to keep the "star" pipeline going, which means going for 'diamonds with a flaw' - high ceiling/low floor guys as opposed to steady-eddie lower celing/high floor guys who might contribute more earlier. This has two problems: 1. as @Sierra Foothills pointed out, it's possible HC/LF guys may have a higher bust rate (unproven) 2. it may take these guys a couple years to reach their potential, in which case instead of having a solid player under contract for 5 years, we have a disappointing player who shows flashes under contract for 2 years, improvement in year 3, a strong player in year 4 and 5, then just when he's looking good we need to pay him the big bucks or watch him walk. I don't know what's a better strategy though.

Hamlin is one of (what I see anyway) as a "hidden battle" on the roster. I dunno about "hesitant and fearful". But let's be real. The guy probably had broken ribs. He was undoubtedly limited in the physical conditioning he was allowed to do for several months. Now he's trying to work his way back, and competing against athletes who've been full-go training with all their might since March. I think you're correct that it's closer than many would think, and if it's closer, the Cold Hard Football Assessment would say keep Lewis because of his versatility. Marlowe is older and slower, if it's close you keep Hamlin. I think the Bills are aware that Hamlin is not back to 100% physically and are likely to give him more time to "play himself into shape".

I don't think that @Shaw66 meant that Edmunds was a 2nd round pick that we reached on. I believe someone else may have expressed that POV, but you're correct about Edmunds pre draft. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com for example, graded him as 7.3, perennial all pro. That's higher than Sam Darnold and much higher than Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen; Saquan Barkley was graded slightly higher. I think, or at least what I interpreted him as saying, was that Edmunds was drafted by us (and perhaps passed over by the teams who drafted 1-15) because he was seen as having enormous athletic potential that was not matched by his instincts and mental abilities to diagnose. Lance Zierlein's scouting report is quite interesting https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f ; doesn't that match up with how a lot of folks here critiqued him? I feel he did develop as the Bills wanted him to, but it took a minute. Anyway Shaw can speak for himself obviously but that's how I saw it.

Right. So let's drill into that a bit more. A team has a need for solid starters at many positions, IOL being one. But they also have a need for a handful of stars at some positions, including CB, Edge, and DT on defense; QB, LT and a couple of receivers on offense. Once you're paying a couple of stars at QB, WR, LT, CB, Edge and DT (which is where the Bills are - whether all the guys they're paying as such are stars is another issue), you have to keep the talent pipeline flowing somehow. So how do you get your stars? Beane's philosophy appears to be, to try to accomplish that by using 1st round picks to take a shot at physical freaks who have a gap in their football resume, valuing that above guys who looked like "good solid starters". The "sure bet" move he made was trading our 1st in 2020 for Stefon Diggs, a 5th rounder who'd played his way into being seen as a good use of a 1st round pick. But since he's been drafting in the back half of the 1st round, all his 1st round picks have fit this mold - Rousseau (minimial football as a college player); Elam (strong man CB but questions about his zone abilities); Kincaid (lower level of competition and incomplete as a TE). I can't say that it's wrong as an approach, but it will be intrinsically more boom-or-bust and lend itself to 2nd guessing. I think Beane may extend it a bit too much to the 2nd and 3rd round, though I like this year's picks. The overall concept is that it's easier to pick up "good solid starters" who have proven themselves as having NFL abilities, on the FA market than it is to pick up "stars", so you better try to grow your own, there.

TBH, I think your friend is in a different situation than most players who are trying to make the roster. As a LS, if the team already has a LS on the roster, he knows there can be only one and he's for reals there to fill out camp or maybe in case of injury. But for a guy like Andy Isabella who still has dreams of playing a significant role on a competitive team, or an UDFA like Tyrell Shavers who has dreams of making an NFL roster and who has been out there making some catches and hearing cheers from the crowd watching training camp or pre-season games, it's different. They have to believe in themselves and believe they have a chance. Still, I agree with you that by the end of preseason, there are only a few positions up for grabs, there's a heirarchy, and most guys know that it's coming. The anxiety may be whether they will be tapped for the practice squad and if they have multiple offers, stay here or go elsewhere? We knew a guy at work years back who had gone to camp with the Oakland Raiders (when they were a perennial contending team) as a nose tackle. He was the most physically intimidating and mentally aggressive person I have ever met. He said he wasn't surprised to be cut at the end of summer and didn't try to find another team because he decided he didn't "like pain enough". He had used his football scholarship to complete a degree as an industrial engineer, so he did ok professionally.

Good post. I see the timing of the Oliver extension and so forth a bit differently. Edmunds was entering free agency. We all know "tampering" occurs in the form of agent- FO discussions in bars during the Senior Bowl and so forth. I personally think the Bills wanted to re-up Edmunds, but by the time FA hit, they knew they weren't going to be able to get it done at a price they were willing to pay. The Bills had already exercised Oliver's 5th year option, so they had a choice about whether and when to negotiate and re-sign him. They actually did re-sign him on June 3rd, and likely because Oliver decided he was more interested in getting a big dose of guaranteed $$ for his kid and his horses, than in holding out for top dollar. It's notable that Oliver signed a contract reported to include offset language and for about $10M fully guaranteed at signing, than Edmunds did. You're correct about LB being "not a premium position" in the sense that the top-5 ILBs are paid about the same as the top 6-10 DTs, but Oliver is #12 on the DT AAV list right now, so I'm not sure letting Edmunds walk when he received a #4 AAV LB contract while re-signing Oliver as the #12 AAV DT quite supports your argument about the Bills seeing Oliver as more important at DT than Edmunds was at LB. I agree with you in hoping that McDermott has a scheme in mind to make up for the loss of Edmunds, and I've pointed out in the past what he did in 2017 with Preston Brown, Ramon Humber, and Zo Alexander. I also think McDermott knows that the D will NOT be as good overall this season, and is just hoping it is "enough" and it peaks at the right time. Why not Aly and AJ?

I hear he's been linked to the Bills