Beck Water

Good synopsis. We mostly agree on the descriptions except that I thought the throw to Beasley was ill-advised - Beasley had the DB draped all over him like a blanket, and the DB got his hand in there to deflect the ball, I thought. For the conclusions, I guess what I'd say is that there are different ways to look at it. One way is to say, Bills won, Allen put up yards and threw TDs, so it's not an example of Allen struggling (I hope that's a decent paraphrase). Another way to look at it is to say, there seems to be potentially a systematic problem with Allen's judgement and some of the throws he's choosing to make. Even we win, it allows teams to stay in it, stick around, and take the game down to the wire. So it should be seen as a symptom of struggling, even if his overall numbers are good. Edit: I'd like to add that I think you made your case well for this game as an example of Josh struggling, then turning it around and getting hot.

First of all, I don't think that's quite the point you were making all along, or at least, not a clearly communicated point. I would agree that the Josh we are seeing now, and the Josh of 2020/1st half 2021 and actually, 1st 6-ish games of 2022 are not the same. We both agree that Josh's elbow is supposed to be fine, but something else is wrong and I think there's a point that unfortunately it may be an escalating problem "It's not a deep to shallow read, it's reading the conflict defender" "do you understand curl flat?" or even "No way, totally disagree" "what are you looking at?" is blunt. I love that stuff. I actually live to be put straight here by some of our more knowledgable posters because it's how I learn more, If I left you in doubt that I found stuff like "Are you even watching the games?" "Spend less time on stats, they aren't helping you" "the artwork you posted" (about a data graph) were considered offensive (not blunt), I must have expressed myself kinda poorly. I do very much appreciate the gesture of the apology, so thanks for that. I do have a tendency to illustrate the joke "why does a (member of ethnic group) always answer a question with a question?" "why shouldn't they answer a question with a question?" in real life, and I can see how that could look like overlooking your question, instead of trying to address it in a different way. All good here.

Valid point. Some people learn to come across well in an interview. Some don't. So I don't want to judge a man by how he appears in an interview and believe that represents how he is at his job or with people he knows. It's a point that Josh stated "my career changed when he walked into the building" and lobbied for him as OC, which suggests to me that there is trust and a good interpersonal relationship there, and that Josh has in the past taken coaching from him. If Josh doesn't want Dorsey as "the guy he's wanting to get him right", it was a mistake to lobby for him as OC.

Um, No. Palmer has no background or history suggesting he is equipped to perform as an OC or talented at it. In fact, I think it's probably time (or past) for Josh to move to a different off-season mentor. I think at this point, Palmer is more interested in milking Josh as the cow that's brought him a steady cash stream from appearances/new clients, than in actually performing as a QB coach and speaking hard truths to Josh that would help him continue to improve off-season

I want to re-adjust this just a little bit. As far as skill players - last year we had Knox, we had Cook, we had McKenzie and Shakir. Now I'll take the point that Knox is not Kelce and Cook is not Dalvin, but Knox showed himself if anything, more capable when targeted in 2022 than in 2021 (higher catch %) but was targeted a bit less. Cook also showed excellent Y/A rushing and excellent catch % when targeted. McKenzie, folks love to hate him here, but he also showed a good catch % - and claimed he was open far more than targeted including against zone. Shakir flashed at times. 3 of these 4 skill players are still here (and the one people love to hate is gone), so if they were insufficient last year, they are insufficient this season. So either our scouting/player dev sucks, or the skill players aren't the real problem. I don't think the problem is how limited our collection of skill players was (and is). They aren't the greatest, but they can get open more than they're targeted. I think the problem is that Allen developed a predictable pattern where he wouldn't throw to the skill players who were open short, or at least not until they were a last resort. Whether his mindset is "go for the Gusto"; he didn't trust them; or he didn't trust his own arm on those throws after the UCL, don't know, but I believe that's the TENDENCY that was on film and opposing DC's could hone in on. I'll bring in the pick to Davis on Monday night as an example. I thought it was a deep to shallow read. @HoofHearted, who has likely forgotten more football than I'll ever know, corrected me and pointed out that it was play designed to create a defensive conflict, read the conflicted defender, and throw accordingly. OK, so why did I think that was a deep to shallow read? Well, because when I've seen that play that I recall, Allen almost ALWAYS (seems to me) chooses the deeper read! Seems to me that if you're a savvy CB and that's a real tendency you've been coached about, it might be pretty simple to take a step towards the shallower route to reinforce Josh's tendency, then jump the deeper route and pick the throw, like shaking a cherry tree then collecting the cherries. And I could be wrong, but I don't think it's the first time that play/route combo has resulted in an interception. There is at least one other, involving Davis almost always having the deeper route across the middle, that's been picked multiple times IIRC. You're right of course that the O line play has been a problem. But if Allen would choose short options more regularly so defenders couldn't just pin their ears back and so the O line wouldn't have to hold their blocks as long, I believe it would help a lot. Does anyone else remember how putrid and non-functional the Bills o-line looked with Trent Edwards at QB the first couple games of 2010? Then, when Fitzpatrick took over and was making prompt decisions and getting the ball out quickly, it suddenly looked, not great, but functional. Point is, QB decision making and QB play do influence the apparent quality of the OL to us fan observers.

Assuming we're both talking about the Dolphins playoff game, it was 17-17 with 33 seconds left in the half, after Allen threw 2 interceptions. Allen played pretty well in the first half of Monday's Jets game too (and suffered a couple drops I think?) to build up a 13-3 lead at the half. So I guess it depends upon what one views as 'the pattern'? There may be more than one. -Start with good play -Build lead -Make @#$@#% unforced errors, such as picks (or fumbles while extending the play or running into truble) -Allow opponent to tie game -Eventually pull head out of ass and play well again, but by then it may be too late. So maybe it's the "should be rolling" perception (in Allen's mind) that's the problem? The Bills have a top of the league defense. There's no "should" about rolling them. And while the Dolphins defense wasn't as good last season, it was solid and focused on shutting down the Bills. Again, it may depend upon one's point of view, but as Gunner pointed out, if we start with the Jax game in 2021 and count multi-turnover games, we have 12 out of 32 games or better than 1 in 3 of Josh's games have been multi-interception games. If we start with the middle of last season - the 3 game stretch starting with the Packers where Allen threw 2 INT per game - we have 7 out of 14 games or 1 in 2 games are multi-turnover games. So from one perspective, 7 games is "a few" from another - HALF the games being multi-turnover games is freakin' scary and seems to indicate an intensifying problem. Hopefully someone is sharing these data with Josh Allen, because looking at it as 'it's just one game" might be hiding the forest. It's a valid point as well that McDermott deservedly praised Allen's performance on the final drive to bring the team into FG range and tie the game, forcing OT.

See, this is where I find this kind of thing worth discussing, because I started out thinking we fundamentally disagreed, and I'm almost entirely on the same page with you here. I agree it's relevant to look at how many bad games there are relative to total games played over an interval, and while I don't like chosing arbitrary intervals, that number appears to be increasing. I'm also with you that I looked at the elbow injury as problematic/explanatory of problems down the stretch last season. But we're hearing from Josh that's all healed, no problems. Yet here we are, so.... And we're on the same page that the problem isn't Josh needs more chain-mover easy throws, because they're there, Josh just isn't taking them. I 'm perfectly willing to believe that Daboll is a greater talent than Dorsey as a play designer. (I also felt that at times, Daboll got way too cute with what he was trying to do, but that's a story for another day). But as I learnt during my career, sometimes you don't need the most brilliant mind in the room working on your project; there are occasions where that helps, but there are more times when you're better served by a fundamentally sound, organized, competent worker. I think exactly as you say - while Dorsey did make some puzzling play calls at times, Josh had competently designed and executed "chain movers" enough to keep drives going, many of which he passed up in favor of bailing from the pocket and forcing balls into dangerous territory trying to hit the big shot and light up the scoreboard. And while sure, the whole team played badly in the Bengals game, I thought that was a large part of what went on in Josh's approach to the Dolphins game (where he got away with it) and the Bengals game (where he didn't). So it's now 3 games in a row. Once is an occurrence, twice could be a coincidence, three times is a pattern. I'm curious if you watched Dorsey's interview? I gave my take on it above and I don't want to influence if you didn't watch it and wish to, but there were several points I found interesting there.

So I pretty much watched the whole thing on Youtube. I don’t think the limiting Josh’s designed runs is news. I believe McDermott and Beane both talked about it after the season. The word Dorsey used was limiting, not taking out all together. Obviously to most of us, as a means to limit Josh’s scrambles or the hits he takes when he runs, less designed runs was a “fail” last game. It might be better to put in a couple designed runs early and get Josh some “contact” that he seems to need to settle him. I’ve never known quite what to make of Dorsey’s pressers. I didn’t like Daboll’s his first year and a half, either - I thought he improved greatly during his time here. Part of that went with improvement in Josh’s play so he wasn’t being called on the carpet by the press, which is what this presser by Dorsey was all about. I don’t want to conflate how a guy comes across in front of the press, with his overall professional competence or his interpersonal abilities 1:1 or with coworkers. A few thoughts: -I think Dorsey and Joe Brady have no real clue how to effectively help Josh out of a “Sugar High Josh” superhero mindset. Dorsey said something about “Joe does a great job” (of helping Josh on the sideline). But I can’t recall (maybe I’m missing something) a game where Josh was making unforced error after unforced error and yet pulled it together and turned it around. Anyone else? -Likewise I think they have no idea how to limit Josh’s running or persuade him to get down or go OOB and take fewer hits. It reminds me of a story where a French nobleman asked the King to intervene on behalf of another nobleman and the King response “I will do what I can for you; I will pray that he leave you alone”. I think all they can do is continue to point it out, and hope Josh absorbs it and makes changes. -Dorsey sounded most sincere when he said he had all the confidence in the world in Josh and when he said ‘all these guys want to be coached’. That makes me feel that at least outside the actual game, Dorsey has confidence in his relationship with Josh and feels that Josh respects him and listens to him. -I think their plan at this point is to hope this was a 1 game aberration and that Josh will take accountability and correct himself Time will tell. Edit: I heard a lot of concern from Dorsey for his own play calling and for scheme to put the right guys in the right places. So I think at the least, he feels the need to re-examine his play calling and even aspects of his play design. As he should, but how deep or broad this is can’t say.

OMG Good thing Cousins has that hypobaric chamber in his bedroom

I don’t think this is news. I think McDermott and Beane have both talked about limiting designed QB runs and building a running game that does not depend upon Josh Allen. Whether they will accomplish both, I don’t know. I thought that Dorsey had the mien of a guy who has been to the Prinipal’s Office - but then I thought that about Daboll at times as well.

You know, there have been times when I’ve been of this mindset. But these were unambiguously “unforced errors” by Josh. So this time, I don’t buy it. Josh had short passing options available to him on many plays. Not all, but many. He had options available on the plays that were intercepted and on his fumble (he could have recovered it and fallen on it). He did not need to play “hero ball” in order to move the chains. He also had a lead, at the point where he made those unforced errors. Sorry, No Sale.

I agree with you - I thought the Vikes were cooked but they kept fighting. Cousins got the crap beaten out of him.

Um, Cousins lost a fumble. No interceptions, but 1 turnover. So what happened last season?

Have the other team playing backups

Quessenberry at RT for the Vikes

Seems pretty straightforward that he should have gotten one, honestly. Yeah I don’t understand the whole can’t read defenses/ can’t make good decisions/ doesn’t prepare/ can’t learn/ focused on Hollywood stuff. He had a bad game, and it’s after the last two games he played were bad games. Allen has alluded to not staying within the structure of the play/needing to see the field as Dorsey does. McDermott has alluded to Allen running less and they talk about it but it doesn’t happen. So I think there’s some evidence that Allen may not be wholly accepting of coaching on some points at present.

I don’t watch much national sports media, so you could well be right with that.

No. Josh Allen played like an idiot on Monday night. He knows it. We know it. He has the ability to cut it out. He's shown the ability to cut it out. When he cuts it out, I'll stop.

There is a chance, indeed. But again...at this point, we're not talking about honing an elite top-level understanding. We're talking about making bonehead decisions that the man who "changed my career when he walked into the building" (Josh's words about Dorsey) should be able to talk to Josh and be heard about.

I agree with all this - but it wasn't IMO a binary process. It's not that Josh never displayed those bad traits when Daboll was here - because they surfaced and resurfaced. It may be true that perhaps that he was more able to accept hard coaching and that he was able one way or the other to be coaxed out of the bad traits and into disciplined play, better. Or, maybe he got positive reinforcement to be great from Daboll instead of hard coaching, IDK, I just heard about a "see how great you can be" video. Or, maybe he got both. Frankly, it wasn't that intrinsically Josh recognized a great football mind he needed to bond with and listen to right off the bat. Josh told a story about Daboll screaming in his helmet his rookie year after he ignored the play call and took a throw to the corner of the EZ that got picked. He said Daboll screamed until he was read in the face, then calmed down and walked away, then thought about it and came back and screamed some more. Josh needed to "bottom out" and have a terrible, horrible, no good very bad loss to NE 4 games into his 2nd season before he had some hard discussions with Beane and McDermott and made a decision to change his ways. Maybe this game will serve as a "bottoming out" to bring Josh back to the same realization. We fans can hope.

Oh, it melted into a puddle. Chernobyl was nothing to it. Source: Patriots fan. I agree with your 2nd statement. The unanswered question is: Can Josh Allen change his mindset and discipline himself to actually do just that?

Virgil, I love your honesty, even if I do sometimes feel you're the TBD version of Eeyore. I'm not too far away from you myself, actually. If we win, Great! but I'm not sure the Raiders D presents the tough challenge which will tell if any improvements in Josh's mental approach have been successful, so I won't feel comfortable until that's tested. Like you, I'll still have concerns. If we Lose, Gross.

Actually your statement I responded to was "But let’s not act like the current Josh allen is the same josh allen we saw under Daboll" For one thing, that does appear to imply that Dorsey is the problem. If you clarify that you don't believe Dorsey is the problem or the Dorsey/Daboll transition per se is the problem, we disagree about less. My point is that at times, the 2021 Josh we saw, is exactly the Josh we're seeing today. That's from watching the games, but data support this and I believe the graph I constructed from data (Oh, excuse me - the "artwork I posted") illustrates this point pretty clearly. @Royale with Cheese pointed out that in fact, Josh's worst INT year so far was actually 2021 and his fumbling was horrendous. We overlook this because Josh played lights out in the 2021 playoffs. My second point is that at times during 2022, the Josh we saw was the equal of 2021 Josh - calm, poised, able to take what the defense gave him and methodically move the ball down the field. I gave specific examples of games I felt displayed this, including 2 at the end of the 2022 season. It is pretty clear that Josh's play was worse after the GB game - that would be the Jets game, where his UCL got torn - so I point out that the QB performance picture is muddier and more difficult to sort from that point on, because of the injury. So no, I don't agree that "the point I'm disputing is absolutely correct", but I likely won't be trying to discuss this with you further because you see nothing to discuss.

Jordan Palmer in the past has talked about watching film with his QB, and in fact having film night with the draft class where they watched with Josh and some of his other professional clients. He's also talked about putting Josh together with 'mental coaching', whatever that means. I agree with you that this isn't mechanical. I do understand your point about it being easier to accept hard coaching from someone you completely respect as your clear superior. But Josh has talked about how much he respects and how much he's learned from Dorsey: "my career changed when he walked in the building". If Josh actually can not accept constructive criticism or "hard coaching" from Dorsey and take in what he has to say...then Josh made a foolish mistake in lobbying for a man he has stated he respects and has learned from to take over as OC, and Josh is going to do him the disservice of getting his ass fired. As a professional, I would have comments about your stated approach on constructive criticism, but 'not my circus not my monkeys'

Well, I guess it depends upon how you see things. I spent my professional life looking for patterns, and especially when it came to process development, trying to figure out where when and why things went sideways, a need not necessarily best served by setting out arbitrary intervals and counting the number of failed batches within them. That could lead you to decide "we had more failed batches since Rodomontade took over as supervisor - 8 vs. 4" - but failing to see that the number of failed batches actually spiked up at an earlier time interval and maybe we need to look at what changed right then. This is frankly where my point about it being somewhat ironic for someone to talk about manipulating data to make a point comes from. Here's what I see when I look at this "artwork": I see that there were some early "teething pains" with Josh, where he was turnover-prone during his rookie season and into his second season. After his 16th game, which happened to be September 29 2019 vs. NWE (4th game of his 2nd year), he really settled down and cleaned up the interceptions - UNTIL November 7, 2021, most of the way through his 4th season - that was the Jacksonville game. Beasley was playing on what we later learned to be cracked ribs from the previous week, our OL was atrocious against the Jags pass rush, and Josh was reckless with putting himself and the ball at risk. So looking at this as a process developer, I would say something changed for the better on September 29, 2019. We know from Josh that he had some hard discussions with Beane and with McDermott about changing how he played after that game. Then I would say something changed again on November 7, 2021 - WHILE DABOLL WAS STILL HERE. And I would start to look at what that might be. We overlook Nov and Dec of 2021 because Josh got his act together and played so splendidly in the playoffs. But I think in hindsight, that's where the pattern started. And I personally think Josh may have to do an exercise where he climbs a ladder and lets himself fall backwards a few dozen times, trusting some combinations of Kincaid, Sherfield, Knox and Hardy to catch him. A "thought exercise" might be prudent here.