Beck Water

Oh, it melted into a puddle. Chernobyl was nothing to it. Source: Patriots fan. I agree with your 2nd statement. The unanswered question is: Can Josh Allen change his mindset and discipline himself to actually do just that?

Virgil, I love your honesty, even if I do sometimes feel you're the TBD version of Eeyore. I'm not too far away from you myself, actually. If we win, Great! but I'm not sure the Raiders D presents the tough challenge which will tell if any improvements in Josh's mental approach have been successful, so I won't feel comfortable until that's tested. Like you, I'll still have concerns. If we Lose, Gross.

Actually your statement I responded to was "But let’s not act like the current Josh allen is the same josh allen we saw under Daboll" For one thing, that does appear to imply that Dorsey is the problem. If you clarify that you don't believe Dorsey is the problem or the Dorsey/Daboll transition per se is the problem, we disagree about less. My point is that at times, the 2021 Josh we saw, is exactly the Josh we're seeing today. That's from watching the games, but data support this and I believe the graph I constructed from data (Oh, excuse me - the "artwork I posted") illustrates this point pretty clearly. @Royale with Cheese pointed out that in fact, Josh's worst INT year so far was actually 2021 and his fumbling was horrendous. We overlook this because Josh played lights out in the 2021 playoffs. My second point is that at times during 2022, the Josh we saw was the equal of 2021 Josh - calm, poised, able to take what the defense gave him and methodically move the ball down the field. I gave specific examples of games I felt displayed this, including 2 at the end of the 2022 season. It is pretty clear that Josh's play was worse after the GB game - that would be the Jets game, where his UCL got torn - so I point out that the QB performance picture is muddier and more difficult to sort from that point on, because of the injury. So no, I don't agree that "the point I'm disputing is absolutely correct", but I likely won't be trying to discuss this with you further because you see nothing to discuss.

Jordan Palmer in the past has talked about watching film with his QB, and in fact having film night with the draft class where they watched with Josh and some of his other professional clients. He's also talked about putting Josh together with 'mental coaching', whatever that means. I agree with you that this isn't mechanical. I do understand your point about it being easier to accept hard coaching from someone you completely respect as your clear superior. But Josh has talked about how much he respects and how much he's learned from Dorsey: "my career changed when he walked in the building". If Josh actually can not accept constructive criticism or "hard coaching" from Dorsey and take in what he has to say...then Josh made a foolish mistake in lobbying for a man he has stated he respects and has learned from to take over as OC, and Josh is going to do him the disservice of getting his ass fired. As a professional, I would have comments about your stated approach on constructive criticism, but 'not my circus not my monkeys'

Well, I guess it depends upon how you see things. I spent my professional life looking for patterns, and especially when it came to process development, trying to figure out where when and why things went sideways, a need not necessarily best served by setting out arbitrary intervals and counting the number of failed batches within them. That could lead you to decide "we had more failed batches since Rodomontade took over as supervisor - 8 vs. 4" - but failing to see that the number of failed batches actually spiked up at an earlier time interval and maybe we need to look at what changed right then. This is frankly where my point about it being somewhat ironic for someone to talk about manipulating data to make a point comes from. Here's what I see when I look at this "artwork": I see that there were some early "teething pains" with Josh, where he was turnover-prone during his rookie season and into his second season. After his 16th game, which happened to be September 29 2019 vs. NWE (4th game of his 2nd year), he really settled down and cleaned up the interceptions - UNTIL November 7, 2021, most of the way through his 4th season - that was the Jacksonville game. Beasley was playing on what we later learned to be cracked ribs from the previous week, our OL was atrocious against the Jags pass rush, and Josh was reckless with putting himself and the ball at risk. So looking at this as a process developer, I would say something changed for the better on September 29, 2019. We know from Josh that he had some hard discussions with Beane and with McDermott about changing how he played after that game. Then I would say something changed again on November 7, 2021 - WHILE DABOLL WAS STILL HERE. And I would start to look at what that might be. We overlook Nov and Dec of 2021 because Josh got his act together and played so splendidly in the playoffs. But I think in hindsight, that's where the pattern started. And I personally think Josh may have to do an exercise where he climbs a ladder and lets himself fall backwards a few dozen times, trusting some combinations of Kincaid, Sherfield, Knox and Hardy to catch him. A "thought exercise" might be prudent here.

I don't think Daboll/ no Daboll is the difference. - and actually in the post you are responding to above, it sounds like @GunnerBill agrees with that. Let me quote from the post you're responding to: "Now I will caveat that point with I don't think all of this on Dorsey or that Dorsey is terrible. I have some concerns over him but I don't think Monday was on him. I don't think that the majority of the blame for Josh's dip since the middle of last year belongs with Dorsey either......this isn't as simple as Daboll = good; Dorsey = bad. There is a lot more too it and I think there is some revisionist history going on here. " That summarizes the point I am trying to make. I think Josh has had good games where he was patient and took what the defense gave him under Dorsey, including a couple at the end of last season. I think Josh had impatient games where he did NOT take what the defense gave him, where he forced things and played like "Sugar High Josh", in the 2021 season under Daboll. I think where Josh really began to be "not the same QB" was starting from the 2021 Jacksonville game to the end of the regular 2021 season. We don't remember because he pulled himself together and played brilliantly in the playoffs (could not have played better) to end the season, but he had a truly horrible stretch of play in November and into December - again, under Daboll.

Oh, FFS(2). That's incredibly rude and dismissive. I gave you one pass for the condescending and dismissive "it isn't helping you much...watch the games" topped off with a political reference, but calling a graph of data "artwork" is above and beyond. As far as your question: I don't use the word "regression". I don't consider it meaningful in the context or meaning most people here (including your previous post) appear to use it. I already made the point "I think Dorsey and Allen should get a bit of a pass on the games where Josh was playing with a torn UCL last season", which would be (wait for it) every game after the 2nd half of the Green Bay game, until (perhaps) the last 3 games of the season where Josh said he could pretty well return to his previous throwing motion - but that takes time to re-train. I was hoping we could find a common point of reference to actually have a discussion, but I guess not.

OK, let's try this. Here is a chart of Josh Allen's INT (1 2 or 3) thrown, per game played (regular season or playoff), in numerical order. Without looking it up, pick the point where Dorsey took over. I'll hang up and watch. (click to get something you can see) You're making a valid point about examples and stats being able to be used to make any point, but you're using it somewhat ironically. Edit: Here's a chart of Josh Allen's turnovers (0,1,2,3,4) per game played, in case one wishes to advance the argument that looking at total turnovers, not just interceptions, presents a different picture. Same challenge: pick the game #, without looking it up, where Dorsey took over.

LOL. Kubiak started out being a bit of a Josh Allen skeptic, and has converted to a Josh Allen partisan. I'm sure there are aspects proving the truism "never as good as you think, never as bad as you think" when you watch fillm, and that we all give excessive mental weight to the bad plays vs. someone who is methodically grading every play. That's how many of us watch a preseason game and say "Kyle Allen sucked, Matt Barkley looked much better" while Ken Dorsey tells us "they actually graded out about the same" and many of us respond "by what grading rubric? and maybe you should fix it." But yeah. I actually suggested to @JoshBarnett last year (after a similar game got reviewed IMO very generously) that Kubiak had been abducted by space aliens and replaced by a Pod Person (in the Body Snatchers sense). I don't think my suggestion found favor. 😅

Oh, FFS. I watch the games. They tell me that at times under Daboll, Josh was playing like a wild man, throwing 3 INT per game and bailing out of the pocket/taking off or trying to hit the deep throw instead of taking what the D gave him. Remember the phrase "Sugar High Josh Allen" coined by Kyle Brandt? That nickname wasn't bestowed upon Josh because he was calm cool collected and taking what the defense gave him under Daboll, but now has become a different QB under Dorsey. 🙄 I think Dorsey and Allen should get a bit of a pass on the games where Josh was playing with a torn UCL last season and Josh explained that he had reverted to his college/1st 2 season overhand throwing motion that cost him accuracy, but perhaps YOU should watch the games - Josh had very good, calm and collected, taking what the offense gave him games against the Rams to open the season (though he did throw 2 picks), against KC, and IMO at the end of the season against Miami (not the playoff, the 2nd game) and NWE. The ratio of the good games to bad games may differ - time will tell. My point is, it's not that a totally different QB has emerged. It's that the same guy who was termed "Sugar High Josh Allen" under Daboll, and that we thought had learnt better, has shown up. It's not that Dorsey doesn't have short and intermediate options that are open schemed up for Josh; it's that he's not taking them - that's not just my opinion, it appears to be the consensus of everyone who puts out all-22 content. A person apparently can't win around here. If one just talks about what one sees with no examples, then it's "that's just your opinion, hit me with factsand examples". I give examples, and your response is the Ad Hominem "watch the games, you shouldn't spend so much time researching football, it's not helping you much". How about you put away your snark, and explain why, if Josh is now a different QB under Dorsey, he showed the same patterns before in the examples I gave? Why did he get that Kyle Brandt moniker? And Jesu, Man. Unless the rules have changed drastically, there is absolutely no reason to drag politics into this by using it as an analogy. Plenty of places to talk politics on the Internet, including the PPP forum. Talk Bills football here.

Facts When Blake Bortles threw for >4000 yards in 2015 in Jacksonville, Greg Olson was the offensive coordinator under Gus Bradley. Hackett was the QB coach, not dual OC and QB coach, and Doug Marrone was in there somewhere as "Assistant HC/Offensive line" It was Olson's 4th stint as OC, so I don't think he was believed to be a figurehead. I don't know too much about him, other than that he seemed to be well thought of during a stint with the Rams and Bulgar, just after the "Mad Mike" Martz era. But I don't think Hackett was the "ghost OC" for Olson, Olson wasn't a novice. Hackett DID take over in Jax about midway through the 2016 season after Marrone got Gus Bradley fired, but that's always an ambiguous question how much the mid-season replacement is responsible for and also how much Hackett was responsible for as OC vs. Marrone (didn't Marrone call the plays?). The Jags were 2-5 when Hackett took over as OC, and finished the season 3-13 so it's not like he "righted the ship" or anything. Again - nothing against Hackett but he was QB coach only and Greg Olson was OC when Bortles threw for 4428 yds and 35 passing TDs. So it's very much to his credit as a QB coach, but it's simply not on Hackett's resume as an OC It would be analogous to giving Dorsey credit as OC for Josh Allen's 2020 and 2021 season - he was QB coach, he deserves credit for that, but not credit as OC

I expect Diggs reaction to this would be "No Cap!"

LOL I expect I'm part of the "great unwashed" 90% LOL. I agree with you that Josh and Daboll had a great bond. I think you're correct that Brian was able to rip into him and critique him. But that wasn't built instantly. Josh has attributed the turning point to 2019 Game 4 vs NE when Josh had 4 turnovers (3 INT, 1 fumble) and got knocked out of the game with a concussion. He's said he had conversations with Beane and McDermott after that, and made promises. He needs to freakin' renew those vows. I'm concerned you may be right about Allen not respecting Dorsey enough to be coached by him, but if that's true, than Josh Allen needs to check himself. Because Dorsey was hired as OC, I believe, largely because Allen fought for him. Allen has given Dorsey lots of credit as his QB coach - said that "my career changed when he walked through the door" (because of the coaching Dorsey gave him) So man, would be crap, if Allen was willing to be coached by Dorsey as a QB coach, but now tunes him out and says "yeah, yeah, Ok" AFTER getting him the job as OC. Regarding Nathaniel Hackett, I believe part of the perception of him is based on the belief (substantiated I think) that Doug Marrone was de facto OC in Buffalo and possibly in Jacksonville 2016-2018 and called the plays, and that Matt LaFleur was de facto OC in Green Bay and called the plays. Curious who you think is the upper echelon schemer who would love to take over with Josh? Also curious if you've rewatched the Jets game and/or all 22, and what your thinking is? My perception is that Josh had answers on most plays, and that he didn't take them.

Isn't he? Josh Allen was a noted Wild Man in 2018 and 2019 - under Daboll. In 2019 Game 4 vs NE, Josh threw 3 INT and had a fumble - under Daboll. Josh has said there were "come to Jesus" meetings and he changed. In 2020 Game 5 vs Tenn, Josh threw 2 INT. Passer rating 'eh', but that was a bad game for Josh. In 2021, Josh had 2 games with passer ratings (not total QBR, passer) below 65 - Jacksonville (62.7: 0 TD 2 INT, 1 fumble) and Atlanta (17: 0 TD 3 INT) In 2022, Josh had 8 regular season games with a passer rating over 100, 7 games with 0 turnovers, and 6 games with a manageable 1 (total 13) I think there's a bit of recency bias in believing Josh was uniformly focused, buttoned up and dedicated under Daboll and "is not the same" under Dorsey. Josh has had some very very good, 'buttoned up' games under Dorsey. But I also think it's clear that something is amiss the last handful of games played, and Josh has fallen prey to some "stinkin' thinkin' ". So then the question becomes, can Dorsey and Judge get him back on track? And I don't know. Another point to consider: Daboll had the teaching of Josh at a different point in his career. Don't overlook the difference between mentoring a raw prospect on his first contract who is motivated to prove he can "make it" as a top player in the NFL, vs mentoring a QB who is on the cover of Madden, has endorsements all over the place, and would cost the team $118M in dead money to move on - even if it's the same man doing the mentoring.

I believe Daboll is a very good football coach. Maybe a very very good football coach. I also believe that he developed a strong mentoring relationship with Josh. I think that took time, though - notably, until after game 4 of the 2019 season, a game in which Josh had 3 INT and a fumble, and Daboll was seen screaming at Josh on the sidelines. Josh has said he had meetings with McDermott and Beane after that game and made promises, and it was a turning point in his career. Maybe Josh needs another set of meetings and to renew his promises. With regard to what Belicheck said....let's just look at what Belicheck has actually DONE vs anything he's said, with regard to Brian Daboll. Consider a few of Belicheck's other strong coaching endorsements. He recommended the elite Josh McDaniel as HC in Denver, so much that McDaniel was given roster control. He failed, badly. He also failed as OC with the St Louis Rams - a QB in Sam Bradford who had thrown 18 TD and 15 INT and shown promise the previous year under Pat Shurmer (barely missed playoffs), under McDaniel threw 6 TD and 6 INT and basically looked totally incapable as a QB. The following year under Brian Schottenheimer, Bradford looked competent again and improved from his rookie season, 21 TD 13 INT and again in 2013. Time Will Tell what McDaniel can do in Vegas, but in 2022 it was 6-11 with a team that was 8-8, 10-7 the previous 2 years. In 2018, Belicheck recommended his DC, Matt Patricia, as HC of the Lions. Patricia failed. In 2018, the elite and uniformly brilliant Daboll was available and could presumably have been pushed as a HC candidate there. In 2020, Belicheck recommended his ST coach Joe Judge (who he presumably thought could be an effective HC with ability to understand offensive and defensive coaching) to be HC of the Giants. He failed. So maybe Belicheck's judgement of what his former coaching assistants can do, is a bit falliable, eh? What Belicheck didn't do? Belicheck, from 2002 to 2006 and again from 2013 to 2016, give the Elite Brian Daboll an opportunity to be a coordinator for him. In 2006, after moving on from Charlie Weis in 2004 and having the position open a year, he gave Josh McDaniel the nod. So Daboll moved on and took crap OC positions. When Daboll came back to the Pats in 2011 and Bill OBrien left after the season, again it was Josh McDaniel who got the nod as OC and Matt Patricia as DC. In 2018, after Patricia left, Belicheck could have recruited the elite defensive coordinator Brian Daboll to come back to NE. Instead Daboll came to the Bills as OC. So....Bill Belicheck is without question an elite football mind and a HOF head coach. But perhaps one ought to take what he says in public about his former assistants with a large salt shaker? And again, I'm not trying to dis on Daboll. But when Daboll was here as OC of the Bills, we all saw weird stuff at times. The run play design in 2018. The inability to craft a run game that would work with the personnel the Bills had and that had worked the previous year 2019 (pin and pull blocking etc) in 2020 and 2021. (this was meticulously charted out by Cover1 in case anyone cares) Maybe the best known example would be the Steelers season opener in 2021. Score 20-10 Pittsburgh. Context is that Daboll came out with 5 wide sets and a plan to rely on the intermediate passing game. The Steelers D came out with an effective plan to blanket the middle of the field and prevent that while bringing pressure with 4 or even 3. Daboll seemed to have no effective counter drawn up. Then, in the 4th Q., 3rd and 5 on the Pittsburgh 5, Daboll called a trick play to lateral the ball to Singletary, resulting in a loss of 2 yards and a fumble (OOB). It was a copy of a play that had been successfully used elsewhere, BUT CRITICALLY, WITHOUT THE TE MOTION IN TIGHT that faked out the D and made it effective. McDermott was clear after the game that as a DC, he felt that was a play that gave the Bills no chance to convert. Anyway, I hope Daboll gets the Giants season turned around. And I think Daboll showed great promise his first year as HC. But maybe we ought to hold off a second on canonizing Saint Daboll based on the words of Bill Belicheck - especially on the hearsay of Jordon Palmer, whose bread is perhaps buttered a bit on being a Josh Allen Apologist. (Without Josh, no way does he have the success he's had or media interest) Dorsey is the current OC of the Bills because Josh Allen fought for him. If Josh Allen isn't as "buttoned up" because he's refusing to be coached by Dorsey and by Joe Judge, he needs to go check himself because he's going to get them both fired and his career trajectory will mirror Carson Wentz PDQ

I'm not sure what's meant by this?

This. Any field - if you're lucky enough to have a top mentor, you need to take all you can get from them, and take it to heart, and meld it into your heart and mind as much as you can. Because things change. Mentors retire, get promoted, leave to take different positions elsewhere - all kinds of things change. You're absolutely right. If a team is successful, the coordinators will get offers. If a QB can't adjust to different coordinators in today's NFL, he's got a problem.

I think Jordan Palmer doesn't help himself by being America's Guest. Josh's performance on Monday night should not be about losing Daboll. Josh is a big boy now, a 6 year veteran. He doesn't need an "elite football mind" to tell him don't make (at least 2 of) the three throws he made that were intercepted, protect the football vs. trying to get back to the LOS but taking the ball and yourself into traffic. He doesn't. Any ordinary competent fooball mind will tell him that. Josh just has to be willing to be coachable and listen. Daboll has done some good things as a coach. Daboll has done some strange things as a coach. If Daboll is such a great coach, why did his team get drubbed 40-0 on Sunday? It wasn't just that they didn't win, it's that they looked awful. And if Josh learned so much from 4 years with this brilliant football mind, and Josh is as smart and dedicated as Palmer tells us he is, shouldn't he be able to retain some of those learnings from Daboll - at least long enough to not do totally stupid *****?

Yes, Josh was playing "hero ball" or "getting impatient" or whatever you want to call it.

"The former"? "her"? What are you talking about, Josh's girlfriend? She hasn't "gone dark", she's still on Instagram and Tiktok sharing even more thirst traps and photographs of herself in Italy, NYC, Yellowstone, NYC etc etc etc. You don't need an account, type "instagram brittwilll" or "tiktok brittwilll" in a google search bar and it comes right up. Right click and "open in new private window" to read the comments on each photo without an account. How her lifestyle is funded now: Josh and his family have seemed well-advised from before the draft, so I'm pretty sure there would have been some agreement signed before Britt moved to WNY with Josh in 2018 to avoid pal-imony and bad PR in the event of a breakup. I would expect she got a good chunk of $$$ in exchange for an NDA. This is pretty standard for wealthy men in the public eye and is neither proof nor disproof of "fire", just proof that Josh has better agents and financial advisors than Mario Williams (for example) did. I also hear her family is well-to-do, and she may be getting some "influencer" endorsements for some of the stuff she posts about. I'm neither affirming or denying your claims of inside knowledge but as proof of something, well, this isn't.

OK Josh has played differently in different games. His post-season performances in 2021 were masterpieces of "taking what is given". So were a number of his early games in 2022 - Rams, Titans, Chiefs. In fact, Josh's first half was to my eyes, markedly different than the 2nd half. I could say the same about the Packers game. I think two things are at play: 1) either Josh gets his bell rung a bit (he did come down hard on his head on one scramble) and reverts to his lifelong instincts or 2) Josh gets impatient with playing the game the defense is giving him, and gets overcome by the desire to Make A Big Play Since he's managed to contain himself in previous games, he needs to figure out what the difference is.

OK, now I got to say something to this. First of all, Mahomes early in his career through the Super Bowl loss to Tampa, would 1) take incredibly deep drops which got deeper when pressured 2) would, in fact, not stay calm in a pocket, but bail out and run. This was also evident during the AFC Championship loss to the Bengals in 2021. Containing Mahomes successfully from breaking out and running was also, in fact, a necessary and important part of the Bills Division round game plan which got them punts and FG and kept them in the game. And, by the way, in Week 8 of the 2021 season, the Chiefs were 4-4 - yes, there were problems with Mahomes and the passing offense. Staying in the pocket to throw was something Mahomes improved at last season, resulting in a 2nd Superbowl win - but let's not write as though that's who he's been as a QB from the start. Recency bias there. Second of all, while Brady would at times stand tall in the pocket, Brady spent his entire career in an offense designed off the short, quick pass with YAC. Fact: since 2018 when breakdowns of completed air yards vs yards after catch became available on free sites like pro-football reference, Brady had LOWER CAY than YAC all but 1 year (2020) - and in 2020, it was 4.6 air yards to 4.5 yards after catch. So you're talking about a totally different play design and reads, where the idea is to get the ball out quickly for a short completion. Most of his career, Brady knew the pressure wouldn't get to him in time because the ball would be long gone. Like it or not, that's a fundamentally different offensive play design than the deep-to-shallow reads designed into our offense that Josh is trying to buy time to execute. And yes, Josh stands in the pocket sometimes, too. So maybe chill with the "see the same frenetic pocket collapsing all around Brady and Mahomes but neither of those dudes panic like Josh". No, that's not quite what you've seen. I really think Orlovsky had the Word on OBD. He goes over why QB throw INT, and points out that Josh very well knows the safety is back there. He just has the "arm arrogance" to think he can get that throw in there anyway. And maybe he would, if he weren't being hit just after the ball was released. But being hit like that was part of the way the game was going against that fierce Jets DL. And yes, while I disagree with you that Josh can't see the safety in coverage (I think Orlovsky is correct: he can, he just gets in a mindset where he thinks he can make the throw anyway), you are correct that Josh has developed some bad habits that need to be altered.

Bottom line up front: I agree with your final para, but that's sort of a "cleanest dirty shirt". I don't think throwing to Kincaid would be outside the structure of the play, but I do think you're right about the read order, which to me says that the play design is not helping Josh. The thing is, the CB have seen that play before, and I believe Josh always goes to Davis (or the WR running that route, usually Davis) I've been thinking about this, and I believe part of the problem is the deep-shallow reads and the fact that the Bills have been "going to the well too often" on the same plays executed by the same personnel. I do think that many QB (Orlovsky for example) would take Kincaid, but I also think their reads would usually be designed shallow to deep. This is the sort of thing where some "looking off" would potentially help. But perhaps we really need better self-scouting and some play design shake up? Davis is a sloppy route runner who only occasionally runs a crisp, deceptive route. He's been a sloppy route runner for 3 years now, so if the plan for avoiding interceptions is to have Davis run a crisp, deceptive route - maybe that's a Bad Plan.

I don't normally look at the gameday threads these days But I popped into the second half thread to say: "Josh Allen is an Idiot. There. I said it".

He isn't throwing into double coverage, but the safety DB is in position to jump the route. Snce there's film of that being the route and Josh taking that throw with the rest of the routes being run on that play, I don't think it took much for the DB to abandon Kincaid like a stinky sock. Part of the problem may be play design, with reads designed to go deep to shallow. It needs to be (see coverage) (throw immediately to Kincaid)