Beck Water

What do you want? The fan base should only fart unicorns and rainbows while singing "everyone is beautiful in their own way?" Look, I'm the first in line to shoot down random verbiage criticism "he sucks" "he looks frantic" blah blah or unsubstantiated crap "he can't read defenses" "he doesn't prepare". But I'm not going to ignore Cold Hard Football Facts. We all hope Allen gets whatever advice and mentoring he needs and makes whatever mental alterations he needs to rein it in. But right now it's not good.

That's actually, and sadly, not an unreasonable way of looking at some (we can argue about what is meant by "many") of Josh's games.

I thought you were pointing to the problem (both positive and negative) of omitting run game contributions.

Fair Feel free to ignore thread and me

These are the data. They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to. "De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax" As stated elsewhere, the last time I looked almost all of Josh's fumbles of the last 2 seasons involve the passing game, not the run game. It's a fair point that I could include fumbles, but we'll be including fumbles for every QB - and the way data is stored on the free sites I use, that's non-trivial for me to add. His running is a huge part of the Bills run game, but Dorsey has publicly stated they are limiting designed runs, so....

Now hear me out 😈 I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years". I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates". Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did: -pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference -Excel pivot table to sum data by QB -calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts -multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers This actually isn't what I thought I was going to find. I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT. And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton. Yikes!!!!! That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep! Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate. So here are the data. (Click to make it readable). Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list. Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers). So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at. And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua. Thoughts? (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares). FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense. But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there. So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

Got it, Thanks. I don't have a twitter account and it's clunky now to access from a web browser. https://x.com/_IsaiahMcKenzie/status/1702288617450668429?s=20 should read "Maddy I don't know why you're apologizing, I loved it! ♥️✊" So much for the notion that this was some bizarre mischaracterization of Diggs behavior, I guess.

Now this was truly funny! Belly laugh of the day 🏆

On two of the plays in question, I think Josh went through his reads. @HoofHearted laid it out. There's a man-beater route, as soon as Josh sees it's zone on to the zone routes. There's a conflict defender, as soon as he turns his hips one way, throw the other route. That's his read. On the third route, IMHO you have a point that I think Josh was telegraphing his intent to throw to Davis all the way. To be honest, on the televised broadcast I can't tell what Josh's reads are on many plays much less if he's in the pocket. I can tell he bails from the pocket sometimes when he doesn't have to.

Please educate me, because I don't speak asterisk. What was Little Dirty trying to say with his "Maddy*****" tweet? From what I was told about Diggs media avoiding behavior at the end of last season, my guess is Maddy made the mistake she made for exactly the reason you cite: she was speaking her truth. And I don't find it implausible that Diggs would look someone in the face and say "FU" in the locker room.

yeah, the whole thing was just weird IMHO. I truly think it may be time and past time for Josh to switch off-season QB coaches.

That's kind of a "didn't watch the piece" take here, since Allen was calm and steady in the pocket on all 3 of the examples Warner gave.

Kurt knows his stuff and has valid points that the confliction for the defender wasn't as conflicted as it could have been. BUT, before we start the blame game on the WR and Dorsey .....maybe we should consider, "why might the receivers be coached to run shorter routes?" Shorter routes take less time. Less time means the blocking doesn't need to hold up as long. Blocking doesn't need to hold up as long, means a better chance that an average OL playing a tip-top DL can pull it off. If they are concerned with that, though, the guy with the short flat route could shallow it. In Warner's 2nd example, that's what Cook does. I think we should give props to @HappyDays as one way to interpret Warner's analysis is that Davis made no attempt to "sell" a deep route, and the effect of the deeper route before the break would be to force the defender to backpedal. Another point, again, before blaming the WR and Dorsey, is that I believe, basically from just after the snap, that Josh Allen 100% intends to throw to Davis. There's no looking towards Diggs or Kincaid. It looks to me as though he's locked in on Davis all the way, so that's what the defenders do.

I think the "always been a turnover machine" trope is overdone, and the "more than anybody" is overinterpreted. One thing to consider is that Allen has been effectively the Bills best RB AND their QB most of his time here. So he has the turnovers of an RB, AND the turnovers of a QB. Add in that he's apparently currently the league leader for continuous game starts (avert any jinx here), and well, Yeah. The thing about Josh Allen's hot streak is that by my reckoning, the bulk of it was 39 games, with a couple stretches after that. He's played 87 games. When you have two numbers that are almost equal, it's very fair to ask which is the baseline and which the anomoly. Ultimately, it's 'up to' Josh Allen to answer that. Edit to add: I think you've nailed the emotional reaction from us fans very accurately. We are fearful that the "avoid idiocy!" Josh of part of 2019/2020/part of 2021 is indeed, the anomoly.

Agree on the "risk his body in moments that don't need it", and that trying to limit that is wise. On the fumbling problem - I did a detailed breakdown of this a couple times (in 2019 and in 2022 I think). The conclusion was that Josh's fumbles have changed since 2019. His first 2 years in the league, he tended to fumble most often on runs, and it was bad. For the most part, he cleaned the fumbles while running up. Since early 2019, his most common fumbles are not running - they're strip sacks, often strip sacks after Josh has been flushed out of the pocket and is trying to extend the play. I believe that has held true more recently as well. I have data on FF and FL per game, same as I did the INT and total TO, but of course that doesn't provide info on "what was he doing when he fumbled?" Some source probably has this compiled, but I'd have to go through the game logs and I'm not energized for that. I expect it wouldn't be a shock to you to learn that forced fumbles (overall) have flared up on about the same timeline as his interceptions: ~ the Jets game on last season? IMO they stem from the same root cause, not seeing and/or not being willing to take the safe throw, trying to buy time to hit the big play. Just as that can result into heaving the ball into coverage with a DB who is ready to jump the play, that can result in holding the ball until a pursuing DL or LB catches up to his right arm. I don't *think* Josh is fumbling more when he runs these days.

Not quite Charlie Weis (5 years) - (1 year - probably de facto Josh McDaniel, who was QB coach) Josh McDaniel (3 years) - (2 year - probably de facto Bill O'Brien, who was QB coach) Bill OBrien (1 year) then we do go back to Josh McDaniel for 7 years But in the first 12 years of Brady's career, he had 3 different OCs for 5, 4*, and 3* years And yes Bill Belicheck was the HC for all of those years, but the offense definitely looked different under Weis vs McDaniel vs O'Brien

I'm a little confused here. Are you saying elite QB struggle with OC changes? I think we can find examples of a number of elite QB who had different OCs (and quite different offenses, even if under the same HC) and remained elite. I'm a little puzzled by the rest of your argument. I think it's perfectly correct that sometimes rookies and young QB struggle because they're matched with an OC that doesn't maximize their talents, or because they cycle through OCs like revolving doors. But how does that argue that elite QB who have been coached and successful with one OC, can't handle a change to a different OC, especially within the same system?

I really don't want to get in here but I suppose. "Privileged and entitled young woman" based on her IG? Say what? Because she posts photos of what? A vacation in France? Her wedding? GTFO. Yes, she is privileged (as are many of us) to have an education and a good job and a life partner with a good job such that we can afford to take a vacation in Europe. But entitled? Because she completed an education and took a series of improving jobs ending with the Bills? C'mon Man that's weak sauce. I don't like her as a reporter, that's fair of me - I can look at her features and find them inane and listen to her questions during interviews, and think she's "meh" as a reporter (I can't even remember Brown or Tasker asking a question though, so....). I can listen to that media clip and think "oh, no, Maddy, shouldn't have gone there." But looking at a personal Insta feed that is just like zillions of other Insta feeds of young working professionals then feeding the ad hominem "privileged and entitled" - seriously? Regarding Diggs. Someone in the media told me that starting in mid-December, Diggs was bailing out on the locker room prior to his media obligations, and refusing requests to be interviewed, and the Bills weren't forcing it even though it violated NFL policy and the CBA - culminating in Diggs leaving before media after the Bengals game and being a no-show on locker clean out. So there is credible basis for the notion that Diggs gonna do what Diggs want to do, and if he doesn't want to do it, he's not gonna be persuaded by anyone in the media, including Maddy Glab. I'm sure Diggs is polite to the cafeteria workers and the maintenance workers. I'm sure after the off-season and mini-camp media kerfluffle, he and his team of PR people and agents do not want any flare-ups unfavorable to him, so it makes sense that they stomped on it with big boots. But based on the above, I find it totally credible that Diggs would diss off someone fetching him for an interview and I don't find it un-credible that he might use locker room language in the locker room. I'd just like to point this out from Diggs that I didn't see above. https://x.com/stefondiggs/status/1702430280320217257?s=20 I see it differently. I think her comments struck her as unremarkable because 'it is how it is'.

Who the hell is James Jones and why do we care what he said? He's manifestly incorrect about turnover issues and Josh. I Love My 'Artwork' so Imma gonna display it. Facts: from the 4th game of Josh's 2nd season 2019, until the last 3rd of 2021, there was a significant decrease in Josh's multi-interception games. Josh was not "careless with the football". If it could be changed then, it can be changed now. It's a matter of getting to grips with the problem, understanding what's driving it, then Josh choosing to buy in to whatever is needed to fix it.

I'd like to raise to your attention the Curious Case of Carson Wentz Very promising 1st 2 years in the league. Team is 11-2 with him his 2nd season, wins Superbowl after he's injured. Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, John DeFilippo as QB coach. Loses Reich AND DeFilippo before next season, replaced with Mike Groh and Press Taylor. Plays well but is injured again next season, signed to a big contract while his backup Nick Foles is shown the door. Following year, Wentz puts up good numbers and wins Comeback Player of the Year his 4th but...things aren't all well. Not as many YPG as one might like, team record of 9-7 so not as many wins. There is chatter about Wentz getting a full of himself, demanding an extended warmup routine and starting to object to criticism. And there is criticism, for his reckless style of play and passing up quick, short targets in favor of lower percentage riskier throws. Next year, Pederson takes over as OC trying to "right the ship" and Wentz goes to hell in a handcart. Completion % tanks, Ints soar, YPG plummet. Eventually, Wentz gets benched for Hurts, Pederson gets fired, and Wentz gets  traded to Indy where he reunites with...Frank Reich but a new OC Marcus Brady. Wentz plays better than the previous year in terms of avoiding INTs, but the passing production is not there (200 ypg) and the Colts barely eke out a winning season. Again, there is talk of issues with Wentz taking coaching/criticism and maintaining a reckless style of play that cost the Colts games. Following year, Wentz gets shipped off to Washington where he has different coaches (Scott Taylor, Ken Zampese). Wentz continues his struggles with not enough passing production and reckless play. Taylor Heineke outplays him, and Wentz is now "footloose and fancy free", out of a job at present. --------------- Why am I bringing this up here? Because when Wentz started to struggle with reckless play and poor passing production (passing up open targets in favor of low percentage, riskier throws, more INT), he got exactly what you suggest Allen needs - new coaches. Several times. And it didn't help. ---------------- The solution to Josh Allen, is between Josh Allen's ears. If Josh is self-aware (he seems to be) and truly wants to right his ship and turn things around, he can probably do it with whatever coaches are around. But if he doesn't. new coaches aren't necessarily going to help him.

I think these are both very fair and good questions. I don't know. Maybe we can get someone who was at the game or had a good watch at the all 22 to answer, but my impression is that there wasn't anything fundamentally amiss about the 3rd Q play calling (ie Dorsey "on tilt"). I think Josh just "lost contain" on himself and got impatient. Reeeeealy good question about Joe Brady

Thanks for sharing your views on Dorsey as a play caller and how situationally appropriate he is. I hope that the 12 personnel and creative use continue, and Josh continues to gain trust and get more comfortable with Kincaid. We do need a change, offensively. I could always be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Daboll moved to the box in 2019 after the NE game Week 4 in which Josh had 4 TO (3 INT and a fumble) and Daboll was seen screaming in his face on the sideline. I don't think Daboll was ever on the sideline again, so your memories of Josh getting his butt ripped by Daboll would be from 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. (I'm not saying that incident is the reason why Daboll moved to the box, I believe there were concerns with late play calls and hope that having the birds-eye-view would help Daboll see more and be able to choose plays more quickly.) Judging by results, I think Dorsey must have been effective at reeling Josh in on the sideline the rest of 2019, 2020, and at least part of 2021, and judging by stuff Morse has said about "the Holy Spirit comes out of him, and you don't want to receive it" I don't think Dorsey was saying "Dear Joshua Patrick, Pretty Please Don't do That". 😈 In Dorsey's presser, one of the things that drew my side-eye was Dorsey saying that Joe Brady "does a good job" helping Josh and steadying him on the sideline. My gut reaction was "Oh? Then what would a Bad Job look like?" Question for people who attended last season's home games: any observation on how much of the time Brady and/or the backup QB are actually with Josh on the sideline during the game?

Good synopsis. We mostly agree on the descriptions except that I thought the throw to Beasley was ill-advised - Beasley had the DB draped all over him like a blanket, and the DB got his hand in there to deflect the ball, I thought. For the conclusions, I guess what I'd say is that there are different ways to look at it. One way is to say, Bills won, Allen put up yards and threw TDs, so it's not an example of Allen struggling (I hope that's a decent paraphrase). Another way to look at it is to say, there seems to be potentially a systematic problem with Allen's judgement and some of the throws he's choosing to make. Even we win, it allows teams to stay in it, stick around, and take the game down to the wire. So it should be seen as a symptom of struggling, even if his overall numbers are good. Edit: I'd like to add that I think you made your case well for this game as an example of Josh struggling, then turning it around and getting hot.

First of all, I don't think that's quite the point you were making all along, or at least, not a clearly communicated point. I would agree that the Josh we are seeing now, and the Josh of 2020/1st half 2021 and actually, 1st 6-ish games of 2022 are not the same. We both agree that Josh's elbow is supposed to be fine, but something else is wrong and I think there's a point that unfortunately it may be an escalating problem "It's not a deep to shallow read, it's reading the conflict defender" "do you understand curl flat?" or even "No way, totally disagree" "what are you looking at?" is blunt. I love that stuff. I actually live to be put straight here by some of our more knowledgable posters because it's how I learn more, If I left you in doubt that I found stuff like "Are you even watching the games?" "Spend less time on stats, they aren't helping you" "the artwork you posted" (about a data graph) were considered offensive (not blunt), I must have expressed myself kinda poorly. I do very much appreciate the gesture of the apology, so thanks for that. I do have a tendency to illustrate the joke "why does a (member of ethnic group) always answer a question with a question?" "why shouldn't they answer a question with a question?" in real life, and I can see how that could look like overlooking your question, instead of trying to address it in a different way. All good here.

Valid point. Some people learn to come across well in an interview. Some don't. So I don't want to judge a man by how he appears in an interview and believe that represents how he is at his job or with people he knows. It's a point that Josh stated "my career changed when he walked into the building" and lobbied for him as OC, which suggests to me that there is trust and a good interpersonal relationship there, and that Josh has in the past taken coaching from him. If Josh doesn't want Dorsey as "the guy he's wanting to get him right", it was a mistake to lobby for him as OC.