Beck Water

You know, I presented some data. People can (and have) quite legitimately question the relevance of the data, raise points about what is or isn't included in the data, or just say "I don't like your data" (data doesn't care, but their feelings are legit) But when it comes to the ad hominem of questioning how long the data preparer has been a Bills fan and has been around the last few decades - C'mon Man. I believe I'm on record about how old I am and how long I've been a Bills fan and what my oldest Bills fan memories are. But the data are the data, regardless. PS we should never have traded Lamonica. I hope so, and I hope Josh and the Bills leave no stone unturned to get him there. Go Bills.

https://theathletic.com/4867821/2023/09/16/josh-allen-bills-quarterback-turnovers/ Your Gilbride quote is interesting, because when Dorsey was grilled during his presser on how he tries to help settle Josh down ---- one of the things he said he does is call the plays Josh is most comfortable with, the ones he can "do in his sleep" So if I'm interpreting your quot of what Gilbride said correctly, Dorsey may be doing the OPPOSITE of what he should be doing, since the clear, easy to read stuff outside the numbers make Josh most predictable. Isn't it a bit of an oxymoron (or some such term) to say that Allen has not displayed the ability to be patient and then say he can for stretches of time. If he can, than he has?

Well, if this dude wants to be salty about missed roughing penalties by the Bills, what about Q Williams throwing himself in the air and landing on Allen's head after Allen was already down?

IMO you're making a valid point, and it's why I feel he had more games that showed him to be an "elite QB" after the UCL injury than @GunnerBill's "one elite game". I felt he had games where he was showing patience, judgement, and care with the ball - just not racking up 'elite passing numbers' I've also made the point in other threads that the UCL clouds any assessment of Dorsey as an OC and of Josh's QB play for last season. That said, IMO some of the TO Josh had at that point - the Detroit game, the Bears game, the Miami playoff game - had nothing to do with his elbow and everything to do with field reads/decision making, and were very concerning. OK

Fair point. A couple years back - and by "a couple" probably 2016, 2017 or so - I was intrigued by an apparent focus on YPG as a metric for QB quality. So I spent a good bit of time shakin' and bakin' different QB stats and whether they are or aren't correlated with winning. Some stuff I learned: -INT strong negative correlation with winning (more INT, less winning) - that's a "Durrr" --ratio of TD to INT was a strong correlation with winning -Fumbles only mild correlation, unless they're turnovers (then ~ same as INT) -sacks same, mild correlation unless strip sack. -YPG actually mild negative correlation (more passing yards, less winning). I think that's because teams tend to pass like mad when they're behind. -BUT correlations of other parameters with winning improved dramatically if I put in a "floor" of ~220 ypg passing I don't think any of this is startling when you think about it, but, to your point about many variables - with INT and TD/INT ratio, I am looking at two specific variables that I previously sorted out as strongly correlated with wins

He kind of stunk up the joint in the 2nd half at GB and was not playing well in the Jets game, prior to the UCL. So I dunno. If that's your interpretation based upon reading my post, then I would have to say that your reading comprehension, using this post as datum, needs help.

I share the concern that we're edging into Carson Wentz territory. I do agree with the point that there are significant differences between Wentz on-field accomplishments and Josh's before he "fell off", but I think people forget how splendid Wentz looked his 2nd and 3rd seasons before injuries, and even his 4th season before the "wheels fell off" in his 5th year. The Eagles record in 2019 was 9-7; they had 5 losses which were 1 score games. Win 3-4 of them, earn a different playoff draw, and the narrative changes. Drafting Kincaid in the 1st round and Torrence in the 2nd were supposed to be significant moves for the offense ("favors" in your parlance) Ditto Cook in the 2nd last year

This is where I am. I can argue the "just once" as I think he's had more good games than that - games where if that were his floor, we wouldn't be having this discussion (I would count maybe 5 as good games), but that's one of those "OK, define more precisely what elite means to you" arguments and doesn't change the fact that we're at > games where Josh Allen was "the most valuable player for BOTH teams" than we are games where he was solid to great in that time frame. I think the throw to Gabe was arguably a poor throw, where the decision wasn't horrid and better ball placement would have made it 'Gabe's ball, or no one's'. But the other 3 TO were mental crap.

What do you want? The fan base should only fart unicorns and rainbows while singing "everyone is beautiful in their own way?" Look, I'm the first in line to shoot down random verbiage criticism "he sucks" "he looks frantic" blah blah or unsubstantiated crap "he can't read defenses" "he doesn't prepare". But I'm not going to ignore Cold Hard Football Facts. We all hope Allen gets whatever advice and mentoring he needs and makes whatever mental alterations he needs to rein it in. But right now it's not good.

That's actually, and sadly, not an unreasonable way of looking at some (we can argue about what is meant by "many") of Josh's games.

I thought you were pointing to the problem (both positive and negative) of omitting run game contributions.

Fair Feel free to ignore thread and me

These are the data. They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to. "De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax" As stated elsewhere, the last time I looked almost all of Josh's fumbles of the last 2 seasons involve the passing game, not the run game. It's a fair point that I could include fumbles, but we'll be including fumbles for every QB - and the way data is stored on the free sites I use, that's non-trivial for me to add. His running is a huge part of the Bills run game, but Dorsey has publicly stated they are limiting designed runs, so....

Now hear me out 😈 I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years". I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates". Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did: -pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference -Excel pivot table to sum data by QB -calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts -multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers This actually isn't what I thought I was going to find. I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT. And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton. Yikes!!!!! That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep! Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate. So here are the data. (Click to make it readable). Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list. Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers). So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at. And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua. Thoughts? (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares). FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense. But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there. So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

Got it, Thanks. I don't have a twitter account and it's clunky now to access from a web browser. https://x.com/_IsaiahMcKenzie/status/1702288617450668429?s=20 should read "Maddy I don't know why you're apologizing, I loved it! ♥️✊" So much for the notion that this was some bizarre mischaracterization of Diggs behavior, I guess.

Now this was truly funny! Belly laugh of the day 🏆

On two of the plays in question, I think Josh went through his reads. @HoofHearted laid it out. There's a man-beater route, as soon as Josh sees it's zone on to the zone routes. There's a conflict defender, as soon as he turns his hips one way, throw the other route. That's his read. On the third route, IMHO you have a point that I think Josh was telegraphing his intent to throw to Davis all the way. To be honest, on the televised broadcast I can't tell what Josh's reads are on many plays much less if he's in the pocket. I can tell he bails from the pocket sometimes when he doesn't have to.

Please educate me, because I don't speak asterisk. What was Little Dirty trying to say with his "Maddy*****" tweet? From what I was told about Diggs media avoiding behavior at the end of last season, my guess is Maddy made the mistake she made for exactly the reason you cite: she was speaking her truth. And I don't find it implausible that Diggs would look someone in the face and say "FU" in the locker room.

yeah, the whole thing was just weird IMHO. I truly think it may be time and past time for Josh to switch off-season QB coaches.

That's kind of a "didn't watch the piece" take here, since Allen was calm and steady in the pocket on all 3 of the examples Warner gave.

Kurt knows his stuff and has valid points that the confliction for the defender wasn't as conflicted as it could have been. BUT, before we start the blame game on the WR and Dorsey .....maybe we should consider, "why might the receivers be coached to run shorter routes?" Shorter routes take less time. Less time means the blocking doesn't need to hold up as long. Blocking doesn't need to hold up as long, means a better chance that an average OL playing a tip-top DL can pull it off. If they are concerned with that, though, the guy with the short flat route could shallow it. In Warner's 2nd example, that's what Cook does. I think we should give props to @HappyDays as one way to interpret Warner's analysis is that Davis made no attempt to "sell" a deep route, and the effect of the deeper route before the break would be to force the defender to backpedal. Another point, again, before blaming the WR and Dorsey, is that I believe, basically from just after the snap, that Josh Allen 100% intends to throw to Davis. There's no looking towards Diggs or Kincaid. It looks to me as though he's locked in on Davis all the way, so that's what the defenders do.

I think the "always been a turnover machine" trope is overdone, and the "more than anybody" is overinterpreted. One thing to consider is that Allen has been effectively the Bills best RB AND their QB most of his time here. So he has the turnovers of an RB, AND the turnovers of a QB. Add in that he's apparently currently the league leader for continuous game starts (avert any jinx here), and well, Yeah. The thing about Josh Allen's hot streak is that by my reckoning, the bulk of it was 39 games, with a couple stretches after that. He's played 87 games. When you have two numbers that are almost equal, it's very fair to ask which is the baseline and which the anomoly. Ultimately, it's 'up to' Josh Allen to answer that. Edit to add: I think you've nailed the emotional reaction from us fans very accurately. We are fearful that the "avoid idiocy!" Josh of part of 2019/2020/part of 2021 is indeed, the anomoly.

Agree on the "risk his body in moments that don't need it", and that trying to limit that is wise. On the fumbling problem - I did a detailed breakdown of this a couple times (in 2019 and in 2022 I think). The conclusion was that Josh's fumbles have changed since 2019. His first 2 years in the league, he tended to fumble most often on runs, and it was bad. For the most part, he cleaned the fumbles while running up. Since early 2019, his most common fumbles are not running - they're strip sacks, often strip sacks after Josh has been flushed out of the pocket and is trying to extend the play. I believe that has held true more recently as well. I have data on FF and FL per game, same as I did the INT and total TO, but of course that doesn't provide info on "what was he doing when he fumbled?" Some source probably has this compiled, but I'd have to go through the game logs and I'm not energized for that. I expect it wouldn't be a shock to you to learn that forced fumbles (overall) have flared up on about the same timeline as his interceptions: ~ the Jets game on last season? IMO they stem from the same root cause, not seeing and/or not being willing to take the safe throw, trying to buy time to hit the big play. Just as that can result into heaving the ball into coverage with a DB who is ready to jump the play, that can result in holding the ball until a pursuing DL or LB catches up to his right arm. I don't *think* Josh is fumbling more when he runs these days.

Not quite Charlie Weis (5 years) - (1 year - probably de facto Josh McDaniel, who was QB coach) Josh McDaniel (3 years) - (2 year - probably de facto Bill O'Brien, who was QB coach) Bill OBrien (1 year) then we do go back to Josh McDaniel for 7 years But in the first 12 years of Brady's career, he had 3 different OCs for 5, 4*, and 3* years And yes Bill Belicheck was the HC for all of those years, but the offense definitely looked different under Weis vs McDaniel vs O'Brien

I'm a little confused here. Are you saying elite QB struggle with OC changes? I think we can find examples of a number of elite QB who had different OCs (and quite different offenses, even if under the same HC) and remained elite. I'm a little puzzled by the rest of your argument. I think it's perfectly correct that sometimes rookies and young QB struggle because they're matched with an OC that doesn't maximize their talents, or because they cycle through OCs like revolving doors. But how does that argue that elite QB who have been coached and successful with one OC, can't handle a change to a different OC, especially within the same system?