Beck Water

OK, now I got to say something to this. First of all, Mahomes early in his career through the Super Bowl loss to Tampa, would 1) take incredibly deep drops which got deeper when pressured 2) would, in fact, not stay calm in a pocket, but bail out and run. This was also evident during the AFC Championship loss to the Bengals in 2021. Containing Mahomes successfully from breaking out and running was also, in fact, a necessary and important part of the Bills Division round game plan which got them punts and FG and kept them in the game. And, by the way, in Week 8 of the 2021 season, the Chiefs were 4-4 - yes, there were problems with Mahomes and the passing offense. Staying in the pocket to throw was something Mahomes improved at last season, resulting in a 2nd Superbowl win - but let's not write as though that's who he's been as a QB from the start. Recency bias there. Second of all, while Brady would at times stand tall in the pocket, Brady spent his entire career in an offense designed off the short, quick pass with YAC. Fact: since 2018 when breakdowns of completed air yards vs yards after catch became available on free sites like pro-football reference, Brady had LOWER CAY than YAC all but 1 year (2020) - and in 2020, it was 4.6 air yards to 4.5 yards after catch. So you're talking about a totally different play design and reads, where the idea is to get the ball out quickly for a short completion. Most of his career, Brady knew the pressure wouldn't get to him in time because the ball would be long gone. Like it or not, that's a fundamentally different offensive play design than the deep-to-shallow reads designed into our offense that Josh is trying to buy time to execute. And yes, Josh stands in the pocket sometimes, too. So maybe chill with the "see the same frenetic pocket collapsing all around Brady and Mahomes but neither of those dudes panic like Josh". No, that's not quite what you've seen. I really think Orlovsky had the Word on OBD. He goes over why QB throw INT, and points out that Josh very well knows the safety is back there. He just has the "arm arrogance" to think he can get that throw in there anyway. And maybe he would, if he weren't being hit just after the ball was released. But being hit like that was part of the way the game was going against that fierce Jets DL. And yes, while I disagree with you that Josh can't see the safety in coverage (I think Orlovsky is correct: he can, he just gets in a mindset where he thinks he can make the throw anyway), you are correct that Josh has developed some bad habits that need to be altered.

Bottom line up front: I agree with your final para, but that's sort of a "cleanest dirty shirt". I don't think throwing to Kincaid would be outside the structure of the play, but I do think you're right about the read order, which to me says that the play design is not helping Josh. The thing is, the CB have seen that play before, and I believe Josh always goes to Davis (or the WR running that route, usually Davis) I've been thinking about this, and I believe part of the problem is the deep-shallow reads and the fact that the Bills have been "going to the well too often" on the same plays executed by the same personnel. I do think that many QB (Orlovsky for example) would take Kincaid, but I also think their reads would usually be designed shallow to deep. This is the sort of thing where some "looking off" would potentially help. But perhaps we really need better self-scouting and some play design shake up? Davis is a sloppy route runner who only occasionally runs a crisp, deceptive route. He's been a sloppy route runner for 3 years now, so if the plan for avoiding interceptions is to have Davis run a crisp, deceptive route - maybe that's a Bad Plan.

I don't normally look at the gameday threads these days But I popped into the second half thread to say: "Josh Allen is an Idiot. There. I said it".

He isn't throwing into double coverage, but the safety DB is in position to jump the route. Snce there's film of that being the route and Josh taking that throw with the rest of the routes being run on that play, I don't think it took much for the DB to abandon Kincaid like a stinky sock. Part of the problem may be play design, with reads designed to go deep to shallow. It needs to be (see coverage) (throw immediately to Kincaid)

Nah. We like our whipping boys here at TBD. That doesn’t work if you spread the blame roster-wide

That actually did occur to me - to ask “who was watching that Josh was trying to impress?” That went well (if so)

Agree with your first point. This is something I've been saying since....2018...and reaching a crescendo the last couple years. I think there may be more context to it than just 'being in shotgun lets Josh process or see the defense better'. Daboll wasn't too interested in trying to run, and he at least initially loved his reverses and jet sweeps and motions, many of which work better from shotgun. He was also trying to help Josh compensate for a poor OL and help Josh learn to make the reads. But Josh should be "grown up" now, so if the IOL is more solid, it would help keep defenses off balance to spend more time under center. I don't think Josh is having trouble seeing the defense or processing it. I think he's having trouble mentally accepting that he should take the short throw and dink and dunk vs. "make something happen" Peyton Manning FWIW loved to operate from shotgun and struggled when Kubiak tried to put him under center.

Josh has the arm, and has "gotten away with" that throw at times but 1) at this point, there's enough film of Josh trying to hit Davis there, that the safety feels very confident to jump that route 2) Josh's technique has to be good, and the throw has to be accurate, meaning he needs a fraction of a second more than he was getting.

In fact, it's such a PITA that I abandoned my all-22 addiction. I wrote NFL.com a Strongly Worded Letter explaining that they broke it and should fix it, but they never got back to me 😄 Dan Orlovsky on One Bills Live made the same point minus the names. "There was no completion there".

It doesn't have to be a lie. He could be mistaken about who said it, or missing some context or detail that totally changes the meaning, or added a word or phrase in his mind that wasn't there originally (people's memories do that).

Several different links/images upthread

OK, I think it is arguable and so do a number of other folks here. Josh had good games in 2022, including early wins over the Rams, Titans, Ravens, Steelers, and a solid solid game vs. the Chiefs plus a 6 game win streak on an injured throwing elbow. He had some miserable games in 2021, including Pitts home opener, loss to the Titans where we couldn't move the ball in the 2nd half, miserable loss to Jacksonville, first half of the eventual overtime loss to Tampa. It's nowhere near as clear cut as you make it seem. Daboll arguably has a less talented roster than the Bills, but any team that won 9 games last season and made the playoffs, then improved in the off season has more than 10% of the talent the top teams have. The point is, they played the Cowboys tough and lost by a single score 2x last season, the core of that team is back, and yet they got their asses whipped on Sunday. That's on coaching IMHO not entirely on roster talent. Plus we have all kinds of people fretting and fuming that we lost Hodgins to the Giants and traded them Basham for a bag of peanuts. Yeah, now you're just trolling.

I dunno about the app, but it's been up on the website for a while. It would be pretty stupid for the Bills to rely on an interview with an independent media member/former QB to "send Josh a message". I believe that any messages were sent directly from various coaches' mouths to Josh's ears. Interesting! Maybe Dorsey and/or Brady need to make Josh re-watch a tape where he was patient, took what the defense gave him, and moved the ball consistently. Instead of telling him "don't think of monkeys" tell him "do think of racoons" or the like.

How can you look around and read this forum and think Josh Allen is some kind of "sacred cow around here"? Seriously? Dan Orlovsky spelled it out very nicely and IMHO is worth the listen https://www.buffalobills.com/video/dan-orlovsky-analyzing-josh-allen-s-game-and-week-1-s-loss-to-the-jets The three INT were absolutely throws that should not have been made, and he isn't shy about laying it on a mindset of Josh's that feels like "I will make a completion where there is none to be had". He says he noted 7 plays where, in his words, Josh was "out of control"

Agree. And one of two things will happen. Either Bernard will get it together, and quickly - or Bernard will be benched for Kirksey. Having decided (apparently) that Dodson was not going to handle the pressure of being QB of the Defense with poise, the Bills pivoted to develop a Plan C.

With respect, I think that's a "can't go home again" situation. Dorsey was on the sidelines as QB coach. That's not the same as returning him to the sidelines as OC. Different role. I'm not saying it shouldn't be tried or didn't work, but it's not as though Dorsey the QB coach would be coming back to the sideline.

40-0 Baby.

I don't remember Daboll saying that at all. Any idea where/when? I know McDaniel said he did that for Tua.

Because Daboll had the Giants so ready to perform on Sunday?

That would likely be Mike Shula as interim OC if needed, not Joe Brady.

I don't think it's as good. Josh has talked about Brady being a great "Xs and Os" guy. In 2019, he also talked about how helpful it was to have Ken Dorsey, someone who has played QB. Reading between the lines, Josh may need the input of someone who has been out there with 300 lb guys trying to flatten him every play, someone who has felt the urge to be a hero. I have seen shots of Josh on the sideline with Joe Brady going over a tablet. Maybe someone who was there at the game on the Bills sideline can comment, but keep in mind what we see on the broadcast is often a snapshot, and doesn't reflect the majority of the time. So just because we see Josh on the bench by himself for a moment doesn't mean he stays that way. And it may be known that after he FU, he wants half a minute to gather himself.

Burrows lets the game come to him. Burrows also has a HC/OC who make sure he has easy answers. Mahomes has had this problem in his time, and he grew out of it. It looked for a while as though Josh were growing out of it. There have been games where Josh was very patient, very focused on taking what the defense gave him. I don't know what's changed.

Your statement to which I was responding about performance art was "and daboll wud get on him I don't see anyone holding him accountable now other than diggs and that's not good for the team ." My point is, you seem to be conflating what you SEE (or don't see) with what is actually happening in team and position meetings and in meetings with HC/OC/QB coach etc. We don't know what's happening there. As far as Yips, this from Mayo Clinic: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/yips/symptoms-causes/syc-20379021 I don't think Josh is suffering from involuntary muscle spasams or focal dystonia leading to throwing INT etc. I think Dan Orlovsky has a much better assessment and is worth a watch https://www.buffalobills.com/video/dan-orlovsky-analyzing-josh-allen-s-game-and-week-1-s-loss-to-the-jets

Joe Brady is the Bills QB coach. Joe Brady is on the sideline with Josh during the game Just a little reminder that none of us know what is going on as far as coaches laying into Josh. They are not obligated (and in fact it is better if they don't) lay into Josh in public where you and I can see it. We all know that both can occur. This isn't either or

Here's the entire piece with the full context: https://www.buffalobills.com/video/dan-orlovsky-analyzing-josh-allen-s-game-and-week-1-s-loss-to-the-jets Definitely worth a watch/listen.