Beck Water

I think the "always been a turnover machine" trope is overdone, and the "more than anybody" is overinterpreted. One thing to consider is that Allen has been effectively the Bills best RB AND their QB most of his time here. So he has the turnovers of an RB, AND the turnovers of a QB. Add in that he's apparently currently the league leader for continuous game starts (avert any jinx here), and well, Yeah. The thing about Josh Allen's hot streak is that by my reckoning, the bulk of it was 39 games, with a couple stretches after that. He's played 87 games. When you have two numbers that are almost equal, it's very fair to ask which is the baseline and which the anomoly. Ultimately, it's 'up to' Josh Allen to answer that. Edit to add: I think you've nailed the emotional reaction from us fans very accurately. We are fearful that the "avoid idiocy!" Josh of part of 2019/2020/part of 2021 is indeed, the anomoly.

Agree on the "risk his body in moments that don't need it", and that trying to limit that is wise. On the fumbling problem - I did a detailed breakdown of this a couple times (in 2019 and in 2022 I think). The conclusion was that Josh's fumbles have changed since 2019. His first 2 years in the league, he tended to fumble most often on runs, and it was bad. For the most part, he cleaned the fumbles while running up. Since early 2019, his most common fumbles are not running - they're strip sacks, often strip sacks after Josh has been flushed out of the pocket and is trying to extend the play. I believe that has held true more recently as well. I have data on FF and FL per game, same as I did the INT and total TO, but of course that doesn't provide info on "what was he doing when he fumbled?" Some source probably has this compiled, but I'd have to go through the game logs and I'm not energized for that. I expect it wouldn't be a shock to you to learn that forced fumbles (overall) have flared up on about the same timeline as his interceptions: ~ the Jets game on last season? IMO they stem from the same root cause, not seeing and/or not being willing to take the safe throw, trying to buy time to hit the big play. Just as that can result into heaving the ball into coverage with a DB who is ready to jump the play, that can result in holding the ball until a pursuing DL or LB catches up to his right arm. I don't *think* Josh is fumbling more when he runs these days.

Not quite Charlie Weis (5 years) - (1 year - probably de facto Josh McDaniel, who was QB coach) Josh McDaniel (3 years) - (2 year - probably de facto Bill O'Brien, who was QB coach) Bill OBrien (1 year) then we do go back to Josh McDaniel for 7 years But in the first 12 years of Brady's career, he had 3 different OCs for 5, 4*, and 3* years And yes Bill Belicheck was the HC for all of those years, but the offense definitely looked different under Weis vs McDaniel vs O'Brien

I'm a little confused here. Are you saying elite QB struggle with OC changes? I think we can find examples of a number of elite QB who had different OCs (and quite different offenses, even if under the same HC) and remained elite. I'm a little puzzled by the rest of your argument. I think it's perfectly correct that sometimes rookies and young QB struggle because they're matched with an OC that doesn't maximize their talents, or because they cycle through OCs like revolving doors. But how does that argue that elite QB who have been coached and successful with one OC, can't handle a change to a different OC, especially within the same system?

I really don't want to get in here but I suppose. "Privileged and entitled young woman" based on her IG? Say what? Because she posts photos of what? A vacation in France? Her wedding? GTFO. Yes, she is privileged (as are many of us) to have an education and a good job and a life partner with a good job such that we can afford to take a vacation in Europe. But entitled? Because she completed an education and took a series of improving jobs ending with the Bills? C'mon Man that's weak sauce. I don't like her as a reporter, that's fair of me - I can look at her features and find them inane and listen to her questions during interviews, and think she's "meh" as a reporter (I can't even remember Brown or Tasker asking a question though, so....). I can listen to that media clip and think "oh, no, Maddy, shouldn't have gone there." But looking at a personal Insta feed that is just like zillions of other Insta feeds of young working professionals then feeding the ad hominem "privileged and entitled" - seriously? Regarding Diggs. Someone in the media told me that starting in mid-December, Diggs was bailing out on the locker room prior to his media obligations, and refusing requests to be interviewed, and the Bills weren't forcing it even though it violated NFL policy and the CBA - culminating in Diggs leaving before media after the Bengals game and being a no-show on locker clean out. So there is credible basis for the notion that Diggs gonna do what Diggs want to do, and if he doesn't want to do it, he's not gonna be persuaded by anyone in the media, including Maddy Glab. I'm sure Diggs is polite to the cafeteria workers and the maintenance workers. I'm sure after the off-season and mini-camp media kerfluffle, he and his team of PR people and agents do not want any flare-ups unfavorable to him, so it makes sense that they stomped on it with big boots. But based on the above, I find it totally credible that Diggs would diss off someone fetching him for an interview and I don't find it un-credible that he might use locker room language in the locker room. I'd just like to point this out from Diggs that I didn't see above. https://x.com/stefondiggs/status/1702430280320217257?s=20 I see it differently. I think her comments struck her as unremarkable because 'it is how it is'.

Who the hell is James Jones and why do we care what he said? He's manifestly incorrect about turnover issues and Josh. I Love My 'Artwork' so Imma gonna display it. Facts: from the 4th game of Josh's 2nd season 2019, until the last 3rd of 2021, there was a significant decrease in Josh's multi-interception games. Josh was not "careless with the football". If it could be changed then, it can be changed now. It's a matter of getting to grips with the problem, understanding what's driving it, then Josh choosing to buy in to whatever is needed to fix it.

I'd like to raise to your attention the Curious Case of Carson Wentz Very promising 1st 2 years in the league. Team is 11-2 with him his 2nd season, wins Superbowl after he's injured. Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, John DeFilippo as QB coach. Loses Reich AND DeFilippo before next season, replaced with Mike Groh and Press Taylor. Plays well but is injured again next season, signed to a big contract while his backup Nick Foles is shown the door. Following year, Wentz puts up good numbers and wins Comeback Player of the Year his 4th but...things aren't all well. Not as many YPG as one might like, team record of 9-7 so not as many wins. There is chatter about Wentz getting a full of himself, demanding an extended warmup routine and starting to object to criticism. And there is criticism, for his reckless style of play and passing up quick, short targets in favor of lower percentage riskier throws. Next year, Pederson takes over as OC trying to "right the ship" and Wentz goes to hell in a handcart. Completion % tanks, Ints soar, YPG plummet. Eventually, Wentz gets benched for Hurts, Pederson gets fired, and Wentz gets  traded to Indy where he reunites with...Frank Reich but a new OC Marcus Brady. Wentz plays better than the previous year in terms of avoiding INTs, but the passing production is not there (200 ypg) and the Colts barely eke out a winning season. Again, there is talk of issues with Wentz taking coaching/criticism and maintaining a reckless style of play that cost the Colts games. Following year, Wentz gets shipped off to Washington where he has different coaches (Scott Taylor, Ken Zampese). Wentz continues his struggles with not enough passing production and reckless play. Taylor Heineke outplays him, and Wentz is now "footloose and fancy free", out of a job at present. --------------- Why am I bringing this up here? Because when Wentz started to struggle with reckless play and poor passing production (passing up open targets in favor of low percentage, riskier throws, more INT), he got exactly what you suggest Allen needs - new coaches. Several times. And it didn't help. ---------------- The solution to Josh Allen, is between Josh Allen's ears. If Josh is self-aware (he seems to be) and truly wants to right his ship and turn things around, he can probably do it with whatever coaches are around. But if he doesn't. new coaches aren't necessarily going to help him.

I think these are both very fair and good questions. I don't know. Maybe we can get someone who was at the game or had a good watch at the all 22 to answer, but my impression is that there wasn't anything fundamentally amiss about the 3rd Q play calling (ie Dorsey "on tilt"). I think Josh just "lost contain" on himself and got impatient. Reeeeealy good question about Joe Brady

Thanks for sharing your views on Dorsey as a play caller and how situationally appropriate he is. I hope that the 12 personnel and creative use continue, and Josh continues to gain trust and get more comfortable with Kincaid. We do need a change, offensively. I could always be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Daboll moved to the box in 2019 after the NE game Week 4 in which Josh had 4 TO (3 INT and a fumble) and Daboll was seen screaming in his face on the sideline. I don't think Daboll was ever on the sideline again, so your memories of Josh getting his butt ripped by Daboll would be from 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. (I'm not saying that incident is the reason why Daboll moved to the box, I believe there were concerns with late play calls and hope that having the birds-eye-view would help Daboll see more and be able to choose plays more quickly.) Judging by results, I think Dorsey must have been effective at reeling Josh in on the sideline the rest of 2019, 2020, and at least part of 2021, and judging by stuff Morse has said about "the Holy Spirit comes out of him, and you don't want to receive it" I don't think Dorsey was saying "Dear Joshua Patrick, Pretty Please Don't do That". 😈 In Dorsey's presser, one of the things that drew my side-eye was Dorsey saying that Joe Brady "does a good job" helping Josh and steadying him on the sideline. My gut reaction was "Oh? Then what would a Bad Job look like?" Question for people who attended last season's home games: any observation on how much of the time Brady and/or the backup QB are actually with Josh on the sideline during the game?

Good synopsis. We mostly agree on the descriptions except that I thought the throw to Beasley was ill-advised - Beasley had the DB draped all over him like a blanket, and the DB got his hand in there to deflect the ball, I thought. For the conclusions, I guess what I'd say is that there are different ways to look at it. One way is to say, Bills won, Allen put up yards and threw TDs, so it's not an example of Allen struggling (I hope that's a decent paraphrase). Another way to look at it is to say, there seems to be potentially a systematic problem with Allen's judgement and some of the throws he's choosing to make. Even we win, it allows teams to stay in it, stick around, and take the game down to the wire. So it should be seen as a symptom of struggling, even if his overall numbers are good. Edit: I'd like to add that I think you made your case well for this game as an example of Josh struggling, then turning it around and getting hot.

First of all, I don't think that's quite the point you were making all along, or at least, not a clearly communicated point. I would agree that the Josh we are seeing now, and the Josh of 2020/1st half 2021 and actually, 1st 6-ish games of 2022 are not the same. We both agree that Josh's elbow is supposed to be fine, but something else is wrong and I think there's a point that unfortunately it may be an escalating problem "It's not a deep to shallow read, it's reading the conflict defender" "do you understand curl flat?" or even "No way, totally disagree" "what are you looking at?" is blunt. I love that stuff. I actually live to be put straight here by some of our more knowledgable posters because it's how I learn more, If I left you in doubt that I found stuff like "Are you even watching the games?" "Spend less time on stats, they aren't helping you" "the artwork you posted" (about a data graph) were considered offensive (not blunt), I must have expressed myself kinda poorly. I do very much appreciate the gesture of the apology, so thanks for that. I do have a tendency to illustrate the joke "why does a (member of ethnic group) always answer a question with a question?" "why shouldn't they answer a question with a question?" in real life, and I can see how that could look like overlooking your question, instead of trying to address it in a different way. All good here.

Valid point. Some people learn to come across well in an interview. Some don't. So I don't want to judge a man by how he appears in an interview and believe that represents how he is at his job or with people he knows. It's a point that Josh stated "my career changed when he walked into the building" and lobbied for him as OC, which suggests to me that there is trust and a good interpersonal relationship there, and that Josh has in the past taken coaching from him. If Josh doesn't want Dorsey as "the guy he's wanting to get him right", it was a mistake to lobby for him as OC.

Um, No. Palmer has no background or history suggesting he is equipped to perform as an OC or talented at it. In fact, I think it's probably time (or past) for Josh to move to a different off-season mentor. I think at this point, Palmer is more interested in milking Josh as the cow that's brought him a steady cash stream from appearances/new clients, than in actually performing as a QB coach and speaking hard truths to Josh that would help him continue to improve off-season

I want to re-adjust this just a little bit. As far as skill players - last year we had Knox, we had Cook, we had McKenzie and Shakir. Now I'll take the point that Knox is not Kelce and Cook is not Dalvin, but Knox showed himself if anything, more capable when targeted in 2022 than in 2021 (higher catch %) but was targeted a bit less. Cook also showed excellent Y/A rushing and excellent catch % when targeted. McKenzie, folks love to hate him here, but he also showed a good catch % - and claimed he was open far more than targeted including against zone. Shakir flashed at times. 3 of these 4 skill players are still here (and the one people love to hate is gone), so if they were insufficient last year, they are insufficient this season. So either our scouting/player dev sucks, or the skill players aren't the real problem. I don't think the problem is how limited our collection of skill players was (and is). They aren't the greatest, but they can get open more than they're targeted. I think the problem is that Allen developed a predictable pattern where he wouldn't throw to the skill players who were open short, or at least not until they were a last resort. Whether his mindset is "go for the Gusto"; he didn't trust them; or he didn't trust his own arm on those throws after the UCL, don't know, but I believe that's the TENDENCY that was on film and opposing DC's could hone in on. I'll bring in the pick to Davis on Monday night as an example. I thought it was a deep to shallow read. @HoofHearted, who has likely forgotten more football than I'll ever know, corrected me and pointed out that it was play designed to create a defensive conflict, read the conflicted defender, and throw accordingly. OK, so why did I think that was a deep to shallow read? Well, because when I've seen that play that I recall, Allen almost ALWAYS (seems to me) chooses the deeper read! Seems to me that if you're a savvy CB and that's a real tendency you've been coached about, it might be pretty simple to take a step towards the shallower route to reinforce Josh's tendency, then jump the deeper route and pick the throw, like shaking a cherry tree then collecting the cherries. And I could be wrong, but I don't think it's the first time that play/route combo has resulted in an interception. There is at least one other, involving Davis almost always having the deeper route across the middle, that's been picked multiple times IIRC. You're right of course that the O line play has been a problem. But if Allen would choose short options more regularly so defenders couldn't just pin their ears back and so the O line wouldn't have to hold their blocks as long, I believe it would help a lot. Does anyone else remember how putrid and non-functional the Bills o-line looked with Trent Edwards at QB the first couple games of 2010? Then, when Fitzpatrick took over and was making prompt decisions and getting the ball out quickly, it suddenly looked, not great, but functional. Point is, QB decision making and QB play do influence the apparent quality of the OL to us fan observers.

Assuming we're both talking about the Dolphins playoff game, it was 17-17 with 33 seconds left in the half, after Allen threw 2 interceptions. Allen played pretty well in the first half of Monday's Jets game too (and suffered a couple drops I think?) to build up a 13-3 lead at the half. So I guess it depends upon what one views as 'the pattern'? There may be more than one. -Start with good play -Build lead -Make @#$@#% unforced errors, such as picks (or fumbles while extending the play or running into truble) -Allow opponent to tie game -Eventually pull head out of ass and play well again, but by then it may be too late. So maybe it's the "should be rolling" perception (in Allen's mind) that's the problem? The Bills have a top of the league defense. There's no "should" about rolling them. And while the Dolphins defense wasn't as good last season, it was solid and focused on shutting down the Bills. Again, it may depend upon one's point of view, but as Gunner pointed out, if we start with the Jax game in 2021 and count multi-turnover games, we have 12 out of 32 games or better than 1 in 3 of Josh's games have been multi-interception games. If we start with the middle of last season - the 3 game stretch starting with the Packers where Allen threw 2 INT per game - we have 7 out of 14 games or 1 in 2 games are multi-turnover games. So from one perspective, 7 games is "a few" from another - HALF the games being multi-turnover games is freakin' scary and seems to indicate an intensifying problem. Hopefully someone is sharing these data with Josh Allen, because looking at it as 'it's just one game" might be hiding the forest. It's a valid point as well that McDermott deservedly praised Allen's performance on the final drive to bring the team into FG range and tie the game, forcing OT.

See, this is where I find this kind of thing worth discussing, because I started out thinking we fundamentally disagreed, and I'm almost entirely on the same page with you here. I agree it's relevant to look at how many bad games there are relative to total games played over an interval, and while I don't like chosing arbitrary intervals, that number appears to be increasing. I'm also with you that I looked at the elbow injury as problematic/explanatory of problems down the stretch last season. But we're hearing from Josh that's all healed, no problems. Yet here we are, so.... And we're on the same page that the problem isn't Josh needs more chain-mover easy throws, because they're there, Josh just isn't taking them. I 'm perfectly willing to believe that Daboll is a greater talent than Dorsey as a play designer. (I also felt that at times, Daboll got way too cute with what he was trying to do, but that's a story for another day). But as I learnt during my career, sometimes you don't need the most brilliant mind in the room working on your project; there are occasions where that helps, but there are more times when you're better served by a fundamentally sound, organized, competent worker. I think exactly as you say - while Dorsey did make some puzzling play calls at times, Josh had competently designed and executed "chain movers" enough to keep drives going, many of which he passed up in favor of bailing from the pocket and forcing balls into dangerous territory trying to hit the big shot and light up the scoreboard. And while sure, the whole team played badly in the Bengals game, I thought that was a large part of what went on in Josh's approach to the Dolphins game (where he got away with it) and the Bengals game (where he didn't). So it's now 3 games in a row. Once is an occurrence, twice could be a coincidence, three times is a pattern. I'm curious if you watched Dorsey's interview? I gave my take on it above and I don't want to influence if you didn't watch it and wish to, but there were several points I found interesting there.

So I pretty much watched the whole thing on Youtube. I don’t think the limiting Josh’s designed runs is news. I believe McDermott and Beane both talked about it after the season. The word Dorsey used was limiting, not taking out all together. Obviously to most of us, as a means to limit Josh’s scrambles or the hits he takes when he runs, less designed runs was a “fail” last game. It might be better to put in a couple designed runs early and get Josh some “contact” that he seems to need to settle him. I’ve never known quite what to make of Dorsey’s pressers. I didn’t like Daboll’s his first year and a half, either - I thought he improved greatly during his time here. Part of that went with improvement in Josh’s play so he wasn’t being called on the carpet by the press, which is what this presser by Dorsey was all about. I don’t want to conflate how a guy comes across in front of the press, with his overall professional competence or his interpersonal abilities 1:1 or with coworkers. A few thoughts: -I think Dorsey and Joe Brady have no real clue how to effectively help Josh out of a “Sugar High Josh” superhero mindset. Dorsey said something about “Joe does a great job” (of helping Josh on the sideline). But I can’t recall (maybe I’m missing something) a game where Josh was making unforced error after unforced error and yet pulled it together and turned it around. Anyone else? -Likewise I think they have no idea how to limit Josh’s running or persuade him to get down or go OOB and take fewer hits. It reminds me of a story where a French nobleman asked the King to intervene on behalf of another nobleman and the King response “I will do what I can for you; I will pray that he leave you alone”. I think all they can do is continue to point it out, and hope Josh absorbs it and makes changes. -Dorsey sounded most sincere when he said he had all the confidence in the world in Josh and when he said ‘all these guys want to be coached’. That makes me feel that at least outside the actual game, Dorsey has confidence in his relationship with Josh and feels that Josh respects him and listens to him. -I think their plan at this point is to hope this was a 1 game aberration and that Josh will take accountability and correct himself Time will tell. Edit: I heard a lot of concern from Dorsey for his own play calling and for scheme to put the right guys in the right places. So I think at the least, he feels the need to re-examine his play calling and even aspects of his play design. As he should, but how deep or broad this is can’t say.

OMG Good thing Cousins has that hypobaric chamber in his bedroom

I don’t think this is news. I think McDermott and Beane have both talked about limiting designed QB runs and building a running game that does not depend upon Josh Allen. Whether they will accomplish both, I don’t know. I thought that Dorsey had the mien of a guy who has been to the Prinipal’s Office - but then I thought that about Daboll at times as well.

You know, there have been times when I’ve been of this mindset. But these were unambiguously “unforced errors” by Josh. So this time, I don’t buy it. Josh had short passing options available to him on many plays. Not all, but many. He had options available on the plays that were intercepted and on his fumble (he could have recovered it and fallen on it). He did not need to play “hero ball” in order to move the chains. He also had a lead, at the point where he made those unforced errors. Sorry, No Sale.

I agree with you - I thought the Vikes were cooked but they kept fighting. Cousins got the crap beaten out of him.

Um, Cousins lost a fumble. No interceptions, but 1 turnover. So what happened last season?

Have the other team playing backups

Quessenberry at RT for the Vikes

Seems pretty straightforward that he should have gotten one, honestly. Yeah I don’t understand the whole can’t read defenses/ can’t make good decisions/ doesn’t prepare/ can’t learn/ focused on Hollywood stuff. He had a bad game, and it’s after the last two games he played were bad games. Allen has alluded to not staying within the structure of the play/needing to see the field as Dorsey does. McDermott has alluded to Allen running less and they talk about it but it doesn’t happen. So I think there’s some evidence that Allen may not be wholly accepting of coaching on some points at present.