Beck Water

Lawson is playing like a hungry man who wants dinner. He only got 37% of the snaps last week vs 60% the week before (presumably to help stuff the Raiders run), but he did well with them with 2 QB hits in 20 snaps.

I'm having a little trouble understanding this chart - I get it's normalizing the data, but find it hard to map onto straight info. Last season the Bills played 1048 offensive snaps. 747 were from shotgun (71%). 301 were under center (29%) Josh actually had more YPA and better completion % under center (7.9 vs 7.4; 65% vs 62%). but I had thought that was because overwhelmingly, the Bills run from under center (2/3 of under center snaps, they run) https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_splits.htm scroll down

You can find splits on pro-football-reference For example https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/2022/ scroll down

I see your point, but Diggs is subject to different types of interference - he is often held, he can get out-muscled, he will be interfered with to save a TD at the cost of some yards. Knox had 9 TD to Diggs 10 TD in 2020 because in theory, he should be able to out-muscle and out-jump more DBs. Of course I agree with you that Diggs is the superior receiver, but with the tighter space in the RZ, in theory bigger should be better. I'd really like to see Kincaid get use in this role because he's smooooth.

If the MLB is the "QB of the defense", i had the crazy thought that last season, McDermott and Frazier gave Bernard a Mahomes "watch and learn" rookie year. It was certainly true of Edmunds and Milano in 2021 vs 2022. People said "Oh, Milano and Edmunds are playing so much better against the run this year". Well, yeah, but a lot of that was that the DL was better, and was doing a better job of keeping the LB clean.

I'm not good on the "descriptive" part. McD's preferred style of defense relies a lot upon interior pressure from the DTs which has to be aggressive to make the QB uncomfortable and give him no pocket to step into, but not "too aggressive" in penetration so as maintain gap integrity vs. the run game. He likes to threaten the A gap or double A gap blitz then drop back - but they come just often enough to make the OL think about it. It requires a special mindset on the part of the DTs. They can't be too focused on personal stats or they penetrate too far too fast (Phillips in 2019) and we lose run contain. I could be wrong but it does seem to me that McDermott is allowing the DTs to be more aggressive and trusting the back end of the D to handle the run fits.

We managed 1 sack and 3 QB hits on 18 pass attempts during our first meeting (the Miami Melting-Hot game) and 2 sacks and 4 QB hits on 30 pass attempts during our second meeting last season. So I agree with you that Tua getting sacked 9 times is unlikely. I think it's a moot point.

That was certainly a deserved reputation for Knox his first two years in the league. In 2021, Knox had a catch % of 69% and a moderate drop rate of 5.6%. 2022, improved to 74% and drop rate stayed about the same. Has he missed making a couple tough catches he could have contested, probably, but not many with that catch %. Do you have specific recent examples of Knox "not being very dependable" to counter this? He did try to go up and get a pass probably intended for Diggs last week but they were ad-libbing so I can't fault him for that. I got on Gabe Davis last year for "not being very dependable", drops of near 10% and not being able to haul in the contested ball, rightly so IMO. But to be fair to Gabe, a certain amount of that was Allen throwing to Gabe when he was really well covered and the throw really should have gone somewhere else.

This. I don't know how Josh is being coached. I know Dorsey is more aggressive. He may be coaching Josh "take a shot on 1st down if you see one". Then the problem is what Josh perceives as a shot, and what other teams defenses perceive as Josh's known pattern when taking a shot, which is to focus on Knox and Davis in end zone. Because you're right, if there are 3 or 4 guys around Knox (or Davis last week), that means someone else has much less attention. I know Josh trusts those guys the most, but he's got to do whatever he needs to do to get over that. We can not afford to settle for FG or TOD against the top offensive teams.

Do we know yet who the officiating crew is?

The original question was "when has a McDermott defense been blown out?" (rare) not "when have the Bills been solidly defeated in a game they were never in, even if the score wasn't a blow out ?" (still rare, but has happened more often) The good news is they can not put both Hill and Waddle in motion and have them both running nearly top speed at the snap because that would be illegal. Either or, not Both.

Same. Same. I had the impression Bieniemy had a clever plan to use his knowledge of Milano's role and our defense, to send the play somewhere else and pick on the new guy. New Guy showed up.

Question: What do you think will happen with the Giants and Daboll? I think it was more that having been give personnel control, he took them from 8-8 to 4-12 McDaniel claimed he had no knowledge of it, the NFL fined him $50k, and if the team had won, they wouldn’t have made the Broncos fire him

Damned Straight. Not only McDaniels fired by Denver, but he was beyond atrocious as OC in St Louis. Spagnuolo has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he is a fine and competent OC. 7-9 Bradford’s 1st season with Pat Shurmer as OC. I won’t say McDaniels single-handedly got Spagnuolo fired from the rams, but replacing Shurmer with McDaniels when Shurmer left to coach the Browns had a huge amount to do with it (2-14) I have no idea why teams still lined up to hire him after he burned the Colts.

Same As long as our DL keeps playing at a high level Bernard has a chance to keep looking good

You allude to a very valid point. Bernard has been able to play well because the DL is playing well and keeping the LBs clean. If Bernard were having to get off blocks from the OL every play he’d not be able to make the plays he’s making

Although I was laughing at Collinsworth opining how Wallace wasn’t trying to tackle the runner and just force him inside on the goal line. No, Collinsworth, he muffed it. But he does get to be the hero of the game

Second Wallace sighting!\

We did manage to lose to the Jaguars back in 2021 so …..any given Sunday

Najee Harris starts his runs like he’s stuck in molasses, and what’s with the stupid spin moves?

Canada’s notion of running Najee Harris up the middle when they really need a 1st down is Ugggh. Well! Pickett made the good read on a good call. I think that’s the game?

Pickett just can’t seem to throw accurately off platform I think that was DPI but Raiders looking like they have a chance

No apology owed, thanks for setting the record straight

Yo, Tomlin, can you stiffen up on D before you sna t c h defeat from the jaws of victory? LOL now that play design was a thing of beauty. Steelers caught with their pants on the ground

That was true last week, but the offense has actually moved the ball and scored this week