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Everything posted by Beck Water
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Are you Keon's mommy or something? And again, did you actually watch the interview with Dion? Let me help you. He was asked. He responded "I already spoke to him. When I spoke to Keon before in this game, and I told him Bro Look. Don't even worry about it. Everybody goes through a different journey, right? Let's just say that this is the last time [ie last time he's late] and let's just move forward. And he said 'I'm with you". That's all and we need, like, nobody's perfect. In this league, we need guys to come on, and Keon knows right now he's in the hot seat and he needs to come on and show up for us. Pats on the back are over with, and it's time for him to grow up, and he knows it. And uh, as an older player on the team, we hold everybody accountable. We shoot straight. We don't sugar coat it. And the words were said to him and he took it well. And we'll see how it goes this week. Like I said in the beginning of the season, I'm in Keon's corner, man. This league is hard. Being on time is hard. Being great is hard. Pushing for greatness is hard. We got his back, but the time is now." Exactly what part of that constituted "throwing Keon under the bus" or should not have been said in front of the camera? You are making a big kerfluffle and going after "chubby guy" (by the way, OL are like bears, they're supposed to have excess body fat) for responding in what seems a pretty fair and measured way to a question he was asked. He did not say anything about it being Keon's "last chance", I have no idea how people got that. He also said some positive things about Keon. He said he's in Keon's corner. He said "make it the last time and let's just move forward." He said the team needs him to come on, and show up, which he wouldn't say if Keon were incapable of either. Frankly, I think you need to come on and grow up.
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These are really interesting points. Beane does have a strong history of doubling down at positions of need - Rousseau/Basham; Elam/Benford; Sanders/Walker; Hairston/Strong; Sanders/Walker. He also has a history of drafting multiple players at positions of need in subsequent drafts (Epenesa followed by Rousseau/Basham; DeWayne Carter followed by Sanders/Walker). So why didn't he do similar for an obvious position of need at WR? It's possible they wanted Franklin, but didn't have a 3rd round grade on him and thought he might slip far enough into the 4th that they'd have a chance at him I personally think that Beane just under-values the WR position and over-prioritizes the D. He learned his trade largely in Carolina, and that seemed to have been a theme there for Newton - leading to Newton both rushing more than one would like to make things happen, and trying to extend plays at the risk of his body. Serious question: did you actually watch the interview with Dawkins? Because from what you're posting, it doesn't seem like you did.
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Being as it's after the trade deadline, doesn't he have to clear waivers? Don't all players cut after the trade deadline need to clear waivers?
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The guy seems to have the "Knox" problem, of being able at times to make the spectacular leaping grab, but dropping the ball that smacks him in the hands and he needs to catch in this league. That's something Knox was able to improve, going from a mid-50% catch % his first 2 seasons to >61% since (his 3rd season was 69%). He did it by following some eye training program that required a buttload of work and having ping-pong balls fired at him. Shakir also went from a 50% catch % his rookie season to >75% since. He did it in part by working with Eric Moulds who had him catch balls bare-handed, which requires more focus. So that can be improved. At times what I see is that the guy just doesn't hustle. He is in no hurry when he runs his routes, including ones where he appears to be the primary target (like that route over the middle on 2nd and 10 vs Miami that someone posted video of). So that's within his control - is he hustling as much as he can hustle, every route? He hasn't earned the right to "pace himself" on some routes where it's a run play or going to the opposite side of the field, and with Josh, you just can't run your route and stand there. So that can be improved. As far as how fast he is, that may be an "is what it is" thing, but athletes can train for burst and suddenness, which help them release cleanly and fake defenders out. It's re-training muscle memory, and it's a lot of work, is what I understand. So I'll give that a "maybe". I think his main problem may be between the ears. Be better, dude. Phillips spent his 3 year 2nd contract playing for the Vikes, including on a D that was #5 in the league in 2024. The team was 14-3 that year. They were 13-3 his first year with them. I said that in my first post. Yes, he plays for the Jets now - 4 years after the Bills let him walk. Sorry, you don't have the #5 defense with a team that goes 14-3 if your starting NT who plays 60% of the snaps "isn't worth a squat". That "you must watch a lot of CFL" crack is just weird. Where did that even come from, coupled with your incorrect gouge.
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I know nothing factual here and have no inside information or insight. But part of the journey for young players is learning to be a professional. A friend's daughter who went from DI VB to pro VB in Europe described that journey herself. College is very very structured. In the Pros, you have to provide a lot of your own structure. The team tries to help players learn to be pros, but there's learning involved. I suspect that two things are at play: 1) Dunning-Kruger. It's not uncommon for a guy to be a team's first draft pick, sign a contract with lots of money, and think they've arrived. They overestimate their skills. They don't have to do something that makes them uncomfortable like travel to Cali and run routes/catch balls for Josh or go join Shakir working with Eric Mould in the off season. He can keep doing what he has been doing that made him a success (a high draft pick) like working with the guy he worked with pre-draft. It was pretty clear during training camp that Coleman had a problem. He was failing to catch balls that were 100% on target. That's usually a focus problem, an eye discipline problem. It took Knox a couple of years to acknowledge he needed to work on it and get to it. And Coleman's release moves had improved, but not as much as they needed to. Maybe doing the same thing and hoping for different results isn't The Way. Be that as it may, Coleman's game against the Ravens seemed to validate his off season work. 8 of 11 for 112 yds, 73% catch %. Whoo hoo. Only it wasn't sustainable. He hasn't broken 50 ypg since, and he's had 3 games with 50% or below catch %. Unacceptable. It wouldn't be unheard of for a young guy who came into the season thinking he's arrived, and he's done enough, and saw his opening game as validating that, to take a slide down into the Valley of Despair. Especially when he has lots of money and can show up in a bar or club and self-medicate to drown his sorrows and rake in the back pats and the ego food. Then what? Pro athletes necessarily have a paradoxical mindset. On the one hand, most of them have had to tune out a lot of negative opinions to get to where they are. Take Josh Allen - all the Division I programs that didn't scout him and wouldn't take a chance. All the draft pundits who said "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself". Where would he be today if he listened to any of that, including, no doubt, some coaches along the way? So we're asking a young guy who had to have tuned out a lot of noise to get to where he is, to turn off his filter and be humble and let the coaches into his head and tell him what he needs to do (that was a problem for Josh initially, by the way. "No coach, Favre says Touchdowns First." Daboll screaming in his headset as a rookie and keeping up the screaming, when he didn't make the throw called for in the play). Add in that Josh traditionally has not been the guy to get in a fellow player's grill and chew him a new one for running the route wrong or failing to haul in a catchable ball - maybe if he did that to Keon he'd "get it". By the way, I haven't read anyone pining for Diggs, just commenting that his talent earned him a "pass" for lateness and etc where Coleman's play to date does not. But just in case: Diggs "went off" for 10 receptions and 146 yds against us. He had 100+ yd game against Carolina the previous week and just recently against the hapless Jests. The rest of the season? 14, 23, 28, 32, 38, 46, 57, 69 yds. I'm sure part of it is the coverage Diggs faces. But part of it may be the "want to" level in the player's mind.
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LOL sure buddy. You wrote "There hasn't been one player that they drafted that is no longer on this team that is remotely any good, outside of Edmunds" but What you really meant was "there hasn't been one player they drafted that is no longer on this team that is a real STUD, an impact player at his position." And it's my fault, I'm "severely reaching" for not understanding what you meant, because the words you used were not the words you meant. Gotcha. News flash: if the Bills didn't re-sign a stud impact player at his position, that would be a scouting and coaching failure. I listed a number of players no longer with the team who see the field regularly. Harrison Phillips - not only starting just about every game, but on team with a lot of wins. Wyatt Teller (strangely, a guy even you seem to recognize as "remotely any good" but who disproves your statement on his own). Cody Ford - you may not think he's good, but he's started a lot of games. Devin Singletary - again, he had his best year in 2023 on a pass-first Houston team that went 10-4 and went to the division round that season. But ya know, a lot of top coaches who won a lot seem to feel that ST matters. Guys like Belichick. Our own Marv Levy. But @jaybeezee knows better, ST doesn't count even when a guy is leading the league as a punt returner or is so good at ST that multiple teams sign him just for that skill. Second News Flash: Teams don't sign players they don't feel are "worth anything" or not "remotely any good", whether their primary role is ST or not. I don't think I need to reach here. Have a nice day, or have whatever sort of a day you consider most appropriate for you.
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Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things, and why we need it
Beck Water replied to Ray Stonada's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'm not sure it's Brady's unimaginative game plan, and not the WR skills. -
I know this is hard, but try to stay with me: 1) OP poster says "There hasn't been one player that they drafted that is no longer on this team that is remotely any good, outside of Edmunds," (exact quote) 2) This contention could be disproved by listing one player other than Edmunds who is remotely any good 3) I listed 11 players who should be considered at least "any good" because they have continued to play in the NFL for years after the Bills released or traded them, despite the yearly influx of cheaper rookies. Some have started for years. 4) Therefore OP poster's contention is disproved. QED. It must be highly disconcerting to lose your ass by laughing. Perhaps you should hold onto it with both hands; only think how inconvenient to lose it! Without an ass, from what orifice would your poo emerge? It could be detrimental to your social life or enjoyment of meals. Punters are players. Every team has one because they fill a critical role. ST can turn a game and we all howl when it does. However, if you wish to exclude the punter and the primarily ST guys (even the one who led the league in punt return yardage) it still leaves sufficient players to disprove OP poster's contention (since one would suffice) We do understand that players who "bounce around the league" (get picked up by different teams) are in fact "any good", because otherwise the teams who sign them would take younger and cheaper guys hot out of college and undrafted. We understand that, right? I'd say I eagerly await the contortions you'll undergo to avoid acknowledging a point, but Truth: I'd be lying.
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Actually, he couldn't. One of the noteworthy things about Allen during the pre-draft process and his first 2 years in the league was that he struggled worst to complete the passes behind the LOS or in the 0-5 yd range. When he changed up his mechanics in the 2020 off season he became able to hit those When he's been injured and has back-slid towards old mechanics he can't So if you're correct that his mechanics are off (and that would seem to be a matter of debate) then he would not, in fact, be able to throw from his a** and complete a 5 yd pass.
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Valid points, although I would say that Tre White, Milano, and Edmunds were all pro-bowl type players in their prime, and of course Poyer and Hyde. I think it was Emmanuel Acho on some show talked about "Freakazoids". He talked about how, in order to win, every team has to have at least 3-4 "freakazoids", players who can single-handedly change the course of the game. On offense, we have Allen, we have Cook. We had Diggs, but no one who has stepped up and filled that role. On defense, it's been my belief that McDermott has always felt he doesn't need "freakazoids" to field a top defense. Instead he wants guys who will "buy in" and Do Their 1/11th. And when everyone knows their role and executes, he's almost right. But since the 2021 playoffs, I think Beane has believed that he definitely needs some freakazoids on the DL to put on a good pass rush. Beane tried to draft a guy he could develop into a competent pass rusher in Epenesa and Rousseau and Basham, and 2 out of 3 being good NFL players isn't a bad hit rate, but they're not Game Changers. Then he swung for the fences and tried to buy a Freakazoid in Von Miller and when that busted, the amount of dead money tied up in him has really tied Beane's hands.
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To transplant a 25 or 26 yr old brain into his 22 1/2 yr old body. There just may be a reason why Sam Darnold started to really ball at age 26. Honestly, think of the 21-23 yr old young men you know. Some of them have it together. They pay attention, listen to what they're told, take feedback well, stay "humble and hungry". Others make you wonder how the human race survived because they seem to have NO sense, including no sense of perspective or self-preservation. Then you throw money into the mix. A young guy from a financially limited background, now he's got a multi-million dollar signing bonus in the bank and is pocketing a the average starting salary for a 2025 college graduate, $70k - EVERY WEEK. He walks into any bar with a hundred thou of bling around his neck. Heads turn. Ladies want to "talk" to him. This is the life!!! It may not be an accident that Coleman's crappiest games were in Atlanta and in Miami, both cities with good night life (caveat: I have NO info that Coleman is out there clubbing. It's just a guess.) That's basically why the "hit rate" in the first couple rounds of the draft is so low. Occasionally players can't adapt to the league physically, but more often it's a mental and emotional thing. It's hard to focus on what the coaches are telling you and be self-critical yet confident, when the message given by the money you suddenly have is "I'm in the Big Time, I've Arrived!". Teams try to do their homework, get a sense of who the player is about, talk to their coaches and trainers and teammates. But that doesn't always work. And sometimes people just change when they get the Do-Re-Mi.
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Starting with 2018, and only counting players who are still active: Tremaine Edmunds LB of course. Even OP acknowledges him. Harrison Phillips DT. Started 17 games for 3 years and all 10 this year for Vikes, 59-74% of the snaps. Vikes #5 D last year, 14-3 and in 2022 13-4. Solid. Siran Neal CB. Played 17 games for MIA and 11 so far for SF as a STer. SF currently 7-4 Wyatt Teller G. Starting for Cleveland at G since 2019. Has been to 3 probowls and 2nd team AP twice. Might remotely be any good. Ray Ray McCloud WR. Has played on 5 different teams since leaving the Bills, including 12-4 Steelers, Conf Champ and SB with the 49ers. Largely PR/KR Led the league in PR in 2021. Also saw significant WR snaps with PIT in 2021 and ATL in 2024. Ya kind of think he might remotely be good if he lead the league and played in 2 conf. champs and a superbowl. 2019 Devin Singletary RB. Solid year for HOU in 2023 with more yards than he had in B'lo. Currently playing for the Giants and his YPC has tanked. Cody Ford G. Started every game at G for Cincy in 2023, all but 1 in 2024, all so far this season. He ain't an all pro, but they haven't found better. 2020 Isaiah Hodgins WR. For a player who was not "Remotely any good" there was a lot of heartburn here when we lost him to the Giants on waivers. After an OK year in 2023, he lost playing time in 2024 and gained it back this year. Played a lot and had a decent game last Sunday. We'll see how he does now Daboll's gone Dane Jackson. Back with the Bills now. Played ~40% of the snaps for CAR last year in 9 games and 3 starts so they might have thought he was remotely any good 2021 Matt Araiza. P. Punting and holding for the Chiefs. Lots of heart burnings here about that. Nick Broeker G, Playing for Houston, mostly ST. All 9 games this season Alex Austin CB. Has been in New England last 3 seasons, playing ST and CB. Has started 5 games at CB in the last 2 years. That's 11 players besides Edmunds who were drafted by the Bills, went elsewhere, and saw significant playing time. Several STers, but when a guy is leading the league as an STer he might be above "remotely any good". 6 have been starting. I know, @BuffaloBillyG, there I go with the facts again
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People forget that when it comes to football, NFL players are a lot smarter than many give them credit for. They don't have to be explicitly told they are running a clearing route, they understand the play design, they know what the reads are given what the defense shows. They know when it's a run play. They know when they aren't getting the ball. Remember Bishop (I think) saying he could read Worthy's body language and tell when it was gonna be a run play? But it doesn't help the offense disguise anything if all the players on the field don't at least give a plausible FAKE of effort. Poyer signed to the Bills practice squad on August 27. He walked into the Bills locker room before the season started. Does not track.
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I had wondered about that. I heard Kincaid spent a good bit of time working with Josh this summer, but nothing about Keon doing likewise. Didn't know if that was lack of invitation by Josh (hard to imagine) or lack of willingness by Keon. Right and while we're un-revisionizing history, the story I heard was that the Bills actually favored a different QB at that pick. I don't remember who - Watson maybe?
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I'd love to dunk on the Bills for passing up Ladd, but at the time it was like "every WR the Bills have is a slot" Thing is, I've heard evaluators say that the best use of Coleman where he gets the most separation may essentially be as a big slot, and clearly the Bills drafted him hoping for a reliable outside receiver who is always open 2 ft over his head. And he doesn't look to be that guy - to anyone. You guyyyyyzzzzzz. Maybe before you say "cut him ASAP" consider what would be his cap impact? Coleman was signed with $9M guaranteed (2025, 2026, and part of 2027 salary). We cut him, we absorb $7.8M in dead cap. Do the Bills have $7.8M in free cap lying around to absorb that? (Spoiler: they don't)
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Bills opened this season scoring 41, 30, 31, and 31 points with Coleman playing 88, 51, 75, and 73% of the offensive snaps. Scored 40 points against Carolina with Coleman playing 73% of the snaps. Last season scored 48 points and won the week Coleman returned from the wrist injury, after scoring 42 points and losing the week before without him. The pattern I see is that the Bills have to score a *****-ton of points on offense to make up for their crappy D these days. That seems to be true whether Coleman is playing or not. What pattern is it you're sensing exactly?
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Poyer and Hyde were signed before Beane arrived. He doesn't get credit for signing them. I'm not trying to say Beane hasn't had any good FA signings. Rapp was a good acquisition even if he does have a proclivity for "friendly fire". Ty Johnson. But let's look again at the statement I was agreeing with... "My complaint about Bean is more about his roster structure and FA acquisitions. He's part of the decision process that favors the D and didn't see a need to replace Diggs/Davis with an equally productive pair of WR's." I'll give Beane full credit for Beasley and Brown, though he failed to adequately replace either (Manny Sands was gimped up and Crowder/McKensie was a disaster. I'll give him credit for Diggs, too, though people who look at Justin Jefferson will give us both the side-eye....and I don't think a GM ought to boast on a guy he eats $30M of dead cap just to get him off the team. The point being made was that Beane favors the D in his drafting AND in his FA acquisitions, and that he failed to adequately replace Diggs and Gabe Davis. I don't think that last is arguable. You can argue the first depending on how you slice it. You're absolutely right that losing Landon Jackson and Dwayne Carter, not to mention Ed Oliver and Michael Hoecht, huge blow to the D.
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I just watched Dawkins interview. That's not what Dion said. He said "let's just say that this is the last time, and move on". It seems pretty clear to me that by "last time", Dawkins meant "last time you make that mistake (showing up to meeting late or missing meeting, whatever he did)" not " this is your last chance" Which I don't believe is something that one player would ever say to another. For one thing, players don't have "fate control" over each other.
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Wait a minute. Let's go back and look at something you said Zero ability to get off blocks Kind of the DL's job to keep the LB's clean, isn't it? When I look at the Bills depth chart, Rousseau/Deone Walker/DaQuan Jones/Joey Bosa were not the 4 names we expected to see as first string starting the season Epenesa/Ogunjobi/Jordan Phillips/Landon Jackson not who I expected as 2nd string. OK, continue.
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Are they though? Poyer, who was cooked 2 seasons ago, is starting at Safety 'cuz there's no one else, Rapp being in the body-and-fender shop for the season and Hamlin for some period of time. Benford, Johnson, and Bernard are not on the injury report and limited in practice because they're "for the most part healthy". Our best DLman when he played, Ed Oliver, is on IR along with our hoped-for young guy DeWayne Carter and a guy who showed promise of fixing our pass rush when in there, Hoecht It isn't pretty.
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There's something to the "premium picks for need" idea, though I do think he looks at talent available in the draft. Statistically as far as players making it, the bottom 3rd of the 1st round is a tricky place. The "hit rate" as far as getting a good player there - not a star, just a solid guy who can ball - is actually not that much higher than the top of the 2nd round, and overall it's lower than a lot of people think. Something like 30%. Beane, IMO, definitely has a tendency in the premium rounds, and that tendency is to go after high ceiling/low floor kind of guys. Guys who have a flaw, that if they can work hard and fill that in, could be great. The opposite side is if they don't stay humble and realize that getting drafted high doesn't make you an NFL star, they won't put in the effort to fill in their game and they wash.
