Beck Water

Fair.

To me, he's kind of like this year's Chase Claypool without the history of public toxic behavior. He was one of Seattle's primary KR last season and they cut him in early December - I think it was after he muffed one kickoff but recovered on the 12 yard line, then fumbled on another resulting in a turnover against the Jets.

He was injured last season. Previous 3 seasons he missed one (1) game. Neck injury, though. Hard to tell what that means to a guy whose job is to hit people every snap

Didn't know the shoulder injury was why he lost the starting job - thanks for the insight Thing is, he didn't earn it back in 2024, and reverted to being primarily a STer. Any insight as to why?

I grant that as draft capital you're correct, but as compensation for a former 1st round pick: I said what I said. 34 spots in the draft is helpful, but as compensation for a 1st round pick (and recall, Elam's original cost was a 1st AND a 4th round because we traded up) ....it's next door to free.

I think we have a bigger need at DT than Hoechst will fill. [Edit: just saw we signed Ogunjobi, that's a big step in the right direction] The Bills did re-sign Hamlin. Just a 1 year deal, but to me that says they're not all-in on Bishop as a starter yet. I think the Bills and Benford/Cook are far apart on salary. I think Beane will wait until after the draft on that. CB is a huge hole to me with Douglas a FA.

My assessment, though he did start some games in his 2nd and 3rd years.

Shaw, you make some good points, and certainly "find the QB" is Job #1 for a good GM. As far as 1st and 2nd round draft picks, there are a couple of things to consider. In another post, I put up that going by pro-football-ref wAV and using a rather permissive cutoff, roughly 1/3 of the 1st round draft picks from 2016 to 2021 were 'busts' - not decent, starting quality football players. (whether wAV is a good criteria or not can be debated, but as an objective metric, I'd say it's as decent as any). The probability is strikingly different at the top of the 1st round, and strikingly lower towards the bottom of the 1st round. The Bills have been drafting near the bottom of the 1st round since 2020, when, btw, they swung for the fences by sending their 1st round pick to Minn for Diggs - not a FA, but not consistent with the "talent comes in the draft" strategy. How do teams cope with that? This is kind of a trick question, but if you look at the 1st round picks of other teams who have had sustained success, what is their GM's record with 1st round picks? Pick 2 or 3 teams. My perception is that Beane's strategy to cope with drafting consistently at the bottom of the 1st, has been to "swing for the fences" by choosing high-ceiling, low-floor players. That means sometimes choosing guys who are rated as having the physical talent to succeed in the NFL, but are missing something on their resume - they came from a smaller school and played against lower competition OR they just didn't have a lot of playing experience OR there are questions about how the scheme they played in would translate to the NFL. They fell to the bottom of the 1st because there's a legit questionmark about their ability to transition to the NFL. Rousseau certainly falls into that category - he simply hadn't played a lot of games at the point where the Bills drafted him. He seems to be a good player now, but despite starting 17 games his rookie season, it took him a minute.

This is something I've looked at some. Yeah, the odds are best in the top-10 picks of the 1st round. "Get a 2nd contract from the team that drafted them" may not be the best criteria - lots of reasons for that. Look at Baker Mayfield, the guy can arguably play football, but coaching changes and the team's decision to back up the Brinks truck for a "sick *****" got him slung out of Cleveland Using a pretty permissive value of wAV from pro-football-reference, in the 1st round overall between 2016 and 2021, ~1/3 of the guys drafted in the first round, just didn't establish themselves as decent, starting-quality football players over the long term. One could argue about the details (should guys like Wentz and Trubisky and Edwards Helaire who had 1-2 decent seasons count as 'decent football players', or not?) but the overall conclusion is the same.

For a former 1st round pick, a 5th and 6th round pick swap is pretty much free.

Media too. Watching them melt down is oddly satisfying. Pats got a solid player, and Hollins got a solid payday.

Not counting the game where he was injured, I see a low of 24% and a high of 78%. Average is around 50%. There were 4 games where he played more than 60% of the snaps, and 5 games where he played less than 50% Unsure of your point?

In his first 6 seasons, Bosa played ~75% of the snaps (69-86% year by year). The last 3 seasons. he's played 50%

It can happen to anyone anytime, but it tends to be more likely to happen to 30+ year old players.

LOL if you want some amusement, check out the Patriots boards or media after they signed Mack Hollins. They were expecting a brand new Ferrari and think their FO delivered a rusted-out Hyundai. Salty AF.

Did I miss something? Did we re-sign Hollins or is he a FA?

Ask your doctor if a prescription for Zofran is right for you This is basically it. I'm trying to think what talking head it was - maybe Emmanuel Acho? said that winning teams need to have about 3 "Freakazoids" each on offense and defense - impact players who can take over and turn the game. The Bills have Josh Allen, who is a Super Freakazoid. Then they have some quality NFL players on both sides of the ball. But as far as Freakazoids, Nah. We need more.

Well, yes. That would be nice, indeed.

I want a pony. And a ticket to Belize.

I can see the steam rising from Jimbo Cook and his agent's ears.....wonder if they and Beane are working on one? Seriously, did not expect to see Beane prioritizing extensions! Shows what I know! Yes, it's "up to" $60M. The devil is always in the details.....

I understood the Carr thing. I don't mean it made sense, but I understood it. Josh McDaniels did a similar thing in Denver: he shipped Jay Cutler out of town in favor of Kyle Orton (I don't mean the players are the same, but it's the same theme: Mr Big Stuff doesn't want to adapt to the players he has, he wants his own guys.) But McVay traded for Stafford and won a Superbowl with him. So....

Kirk Cousins IMO is a big step down from Stafford.

Kelly Stafford is "a lot" but let's be real... Stafford is going to be 37 next year, and the ROI the Rams have gotten from him since the Superbowl have been "meh". It's not that he's played badly - not at all - but the year they won the Superbowl, he passed for 41 TDs and 287 ypg. Doesn't look as though he's gonna return to that performance. If Stafford were still lighting it up, his wife could be yattering on Social Media all she wants I played a bit with Spotrac and I think the Rams only save about $4M if they trade Stafford.

Exactly this. He can flex as he pleases about wanting to be the 2nd highest paid RB in the league. Beane will put cold hard football facts on the table, and then we'll see.

It's an interesting thought. On the one hand, Cook and his agent may know Beane puts extensions 4th in priority, so they're throwing down "this is what we expect as a portion, better leave that room under the cap for us when you start cooking up extensions" On the other hand, you're right - this does give Beane the chance to maybe put a higher priority on Ty Johnson, maybe make different FA and draft moves You just might be right that if he'd waited until after the draft, Beane might be thinking "k, got RB locked down" and wind up with fewer options