Beck Water

That's not a HS QB throw, and it was accurate enough that a top-notch receiver should get there and hang on to it, but I also think it's not scored as a drop by Knox either. Scored drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort"; that dive was not "ordinary effort". Knox is a puzzling case because after early issues with focus and eye-hand coordination, he went to that specialist in the 2021 off-season and really upped his pass catching game. Brought his catch % up from mid-50% to 69-74%, brought his drop % down from 20% to 9% to 5.6%-6.2%. But this season, I don't know - maybe he decided he was "cured" and didn't need to keep catching his ping-pong balls or whatever it was he did, because his catch % is back where it was his first 2 seasons, and his drop % is up where it was his first 2 seasons. But aren't you the guy who has a source that says Knox is playing with a damaged ligament in his hand and possibly a fracture? (odd that he isn't on injury report if that's true). I can't disagree with giving more targets to Kincaid, though he does need to become more physical dealing with 'sticky' coverage (and to sell the DH and DPI better) It seems to be a general problem for the Bills that we have a bunch of receivers who do well enough with ordinary on target throws, but who seem to struggle to bring in the off-target, too high, too low, but makeable catches which (confirmation bias) I seem to see other team's #2 and #3 receivers pulling in on the regular.

I've said this before, I'll put it out here again. I enjoy Cover1. I learn stuff, and Erik Turner is one of the guys I learn stuff from. He's played, he's coached, he knows ball. I'm sure he's forgotten more than I know. That said....at the end of the day Erik and the other Cover1 guys are not football professionals. Erik played in HS and DIII college (St John Fisher), and was (is?) a coaching assistant at a local HS. We have guys who post on this board whose football background and experience are stronger - they played at a higher level in college, they have more experience scouting professionally, they have more experience coaching. You can probably figure out who they are. Again, I watch Cover1, I learn, I enjoy - but sometimes they're mistaken in what they see or how they interpret it. And they're human like the rest of us, they form an opinion and suffer the same confirmation bias we all suffer where they fit information into their opinion. So my $0.02, take them with a little grain of salt and don't consider them more definitive than some of the folks with a contrasting views here. I do think there are some issues with route running - for whatever reason, I don't think routes are always being run at the optimal depth to create confliction for defenders, and it's possible that sometimes when there are option routes, the receivers aren't choosing the correct option. That's probably on the WR coach, possibly on the way Dorsey is drawing up the plays and possibly it's being done that way for a reason at times (quicker routes?)

And one more. Evidently Quintin Morris has a high ankle 😥 sprain: Apparently he caught the TD pass on it.

Nevah Mind

sooooooo.......what QB are we gonna be facing? Apparently, his first name will start with the letter "M" https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bill-belichick-comments-on-malik-cunninghams-role-moving-forward/ar-AA1ijVDi Such a surprise that Belicheck didn't give a concrete answer. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/10/17/sports/do-patriots-have-master-plan-regarding-malik-cunningham/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I hesitated to link it in this thread because Eric Wood doesn't start talking about the Patriots matchup until 14:45, and I don't want to turn this into "Giants Recap Part 11" or something. But in his OBD piece this week, Eric Wood said something surprisingly blunt about all the screen shots fans are posting on twitter showing how open various receivers were. He caveats, saying from a screenshot, you don't know whether they're open at the right time in the progression. But then he points out (paraphrasing): "if these guys are that wide open and Josh is passing them up to throw to Diggs, it tells you one thing. It tells you Josh doesn't trust them." Ooof.

FWIW, Banged Up Bills analysis of injuries "stinger" for Cam Lewis Concussion/neck sprain for Damien Harris He thinks Allen has AC Joint sprain He points out that Allen's completion percentage dropped when he was recovering from an AC joint sprain on his non-throwing shoulder in 2020. But, he expects Josh to get pain control and tape/bracing and play through it.

Was Epenesa hurt during Sunday night's game? Snap counts are out (scroll down), and very low for Epenesa (27%) It will be interesting to see tomorrow's injury report Lawson was even lower on the snap counts at 17%.

So in general, of course this is true. But question: how does law enforcement on the stadium grounds work? Isn't the stadium owned by Erie County and leased by the Bills? Would that give Erie County LEO jurisdiction? If not, would the Bills have an agreement with Erie County or with Hamburg police giving them jurisdiction?

OMG I'm dying. Orca sploodge shakes for the Win.

OK, we need someone with better knowledge here to take this on but I'll have a go. Wink Martindale loves him his stunt blitzes. More, he loves him his delayed stunt blitzes. See here for good assessment: Allen doesn't set protections against that, because it's not the look he sees pre-snap (it may not even be the same look he and the OL saw on all the game film watched, because "special sauce for each OL" is a Wink Martindale hallmark). So then the OL default to protection rules, and the issue is that the entire line has to be on the same page and in sync about what rules they're following (which may change with the base protection) AND able to make whatever pass-offs they need to make smoothly and quickly, which is a big ask. If I remember correctly, the Bengals were doing similar delayed stunts in the playoffs. So what's the answer to the delayed stunt blitz stuff? 1) RUN. Stunt blitzes create havoc on sound gap integrity in run D 2) The QB has to know where his quick answer is, and take it. In the first half, we had 9 run plays to 18 pass plays - and Allen was not taking his quick answers. He was 8 of 18. In the second half, we had 20 run plays to 12 pass plays, and it worked - Allen was 11 for 12. The passing yardage gained was ~= 1st and 2nd half, despite fewer pass plays. I don't know if Morse or Allen is setting the protections now, but either way doesn't matter, setting the protections against the pre-snap D is not the issue. IMO.

11 Harty 10 snaps (16%) - that's a season low for him. typically closer to 20-25% 16 Sherfield 22 snaps (36%) - his snap counts vary all over the place, from the teens, to pushing towards 50% 10 Shakir 24 snaps (39%) - that's a season high for him. he's been trending steadily up through the season. I'm not sure what you mean by "Davis disappeared". Do you mean "was benched"? Because that's not the case. He played 57 out of 61 snaps.

Sounds like injury or examination for injury. Played 95% of the snaps so apparently came back in after being examined. Or as Hyde was caught on mic'd up saying of a similar throw to Gabe Davis: "Don't throw it, Don't Throw It, DON'T THROW IT, Good Throw!"

McDermott agrees with you completely Especially maybe don't drive your sore right shoulder into a LB. Even if it's Okereke, who roughed you up and picked you. I don't understand why at least a couple of those Giants players weren't tossed. IMO, the Giants targeted Spencer Brown, not just between the whistles but for extra-curriculars because they knew he has a medical history of back problems and they were hoping to knock him out. And I think that's one reason why Daboll got the brush-off handshake from McDermott.

The Pats team once knew great Success Right now they're a bit of a mess Their coach, named Bill B ruled football with Brady "It's harder with Mac", he'll confess

I commend to you the excellent breakdown of our first half passing plays by @HoofHearted in the "Anyone at the game or with all-22" thread Diggs is not double covered on all of those plays, and when he is double covered, it doesn't mean that he isn't open. Diggs is often the first read. He is also (deservedly) the first player Josh looks to when the play breaks down and its scramble rules. Josh is not "going rogue" and "playing hero regardless of the call". He does sometimes wait a bit too long for a deep option to develop (not always to Diggs), or work to extend the play, when he could and probably should take his outlet receiver - one could call that "playing hero". He doesn't do it as often or as consistently as he used to, but he still does it more than I'd like. I guess, to me, if you're saying that the offense is one very good receiver named Diggs and nothing much behind him, it follows that the QB will be locking on to that very good receiver named Diggs too much. I can't tell if this is a semantic issue between us, or if you perceive a very real difference that isn't clear to me?

Actually.....by midseason last year, it was being said that the Bills offense was one very good receiver named Diggs and nothing much behind him. Which is of course why in the offseason, Beane swapped McKenzie for Harty (theoretically a higher-ceiling and more versatile upgrade), swapped Kumerow for Sherfield (again, while not a great receiver, an upgrade as Sherfield can actually play WR), and drafted Kincaid.

I think there are a couple things. - @HoofHearted mentions protection breakdowns several times in concert with successful disguised coverage. If Allen is hanging onto the ball a little longer waiting for the coverage picture to clarify, or waiting for a deeper route to develop, protections are gonna break down more than if he's making rapid, good decisions and getting the ball out in rhythm. -Wink Martindale loves him his exotic blitz packages designed to confuse protection, and in this case, he may have had a lot of inside info on OL tendencies (esp. Dawkins, Morse, and Brown) courtesy of Bobby Johnson, to help him out in his designs -Sometimes the defense is gonna win, and the QB has to be willing to take the outlet - which Josh did not do in the first half -I've been told that OL play and DL play are significantly a "state of mind". If you are fired up and believe you can beat the opponent, you play better. For whatever reason, I think our OL has been playing de-energized the last 2 games, until after the scrum near the end of the 3Q. Then they seemed to get some fire.

Thanks for doing this, @HoofHearted. So roughly binning this....first half 18 pass plays (2 pass plays nullified by penalty). 9 rush attempts. 8 completions (44%) 8 misreads/successful disguise or decision issues from Josh (44%) where he had a plausible open choice 3 'receiver' errors (receiver = anyone running route in this context, including RB or TE), including a fumble by Davis 1 (or possibly 2) play call or play design issues (18 pass attempts so I assume 2 were no play due to penalty) I thought I saw more than 1 play where there wasn't a lot of separation (no one open) but maybe someone was "NFL open" and I am mistaken Question: what do you see from Harty? Is he executing routes/getting open? 2nd half was 12 pass attempts, 11 completions and 20 rush attempts I could be wrong here, but to my understanding the WR don't always have decisions to make. Some routes are option routes, and some are fixed. I have the impression that Daboll in 2021 and Dorsey in 2022 ran a lot more option routes - which is probably fine when your WR are Diggs, Beasley and Sanders, and possibly not always a good idea when your WR are McKenzie and Davis. I thought something was said about Dorsey transitioning to more fixed routes and fewer options, although Diggs appears to run options.

You can edit that title. Just edit your OP post, and a window will open that allows you to edit the title.

YOU CAN SAY THAT AGAIN! and not just casual fans - even fans who take it seriously and work at it.

So from what I've seen so far, the answer to your question is "sometimes". There were occasions when Josh was fixated on Diggs, and should have thrown to a wide open Shakir or led a "mailflag up" Knox (for example) There were occasions when Josh should have immediately thrown to an open flats receiver (usually Cook) who had loads of green in front of him, and instead extended the play and tried to hit Diggs There were also a number of occasions in which no one was getting open against man. Too many. Huge change from 2020 and even 2021 in which, unless holding were involved, you could bet on Brown or Saunders and Beasley or McKenzie to get open - especially McKenzie. Harty is supposed to be quicker and faster and run better routes than McKenzie, and that's actually on film from 2021, but so far I'm not seeing it. I think there's some of both, actually. I don't think the receivers are being coached to run routes to optimal depth to stretch out the defense.

What Ben Volin article is this? If you're talking about the Ben Volin article about Diggs wanting a larger role in the offense in 2023, Daboll is not a likely source. If you're talking about something else, I don't know. And I hadn't heard about the "bailed from work early" during the playoffs, but Daboll was interviewing and had the right to interview. What's all that about? Again, I could be wrong, but while I believe it's probably true that there was friction between McDermott and Daboll, I suspect the post-game interaction had a lot more to do with 1) observed behavior of the Giants players during the game and McDermott 100% not being down with that and feeling the buck stopped with Daboll 2) McDermott maybe wanting to get another update on Harris ASAP.

I think the problem that the coaching staff has with Josh is that he gets, as Beane says, "lathered up" in the heat of the game, and his competitive nature won't let him slide or go OOB. If Josh were able to discipline himself run and slide or go OOB more consistently as Mahomes does so that he absorbed less contact, his running wouldn't be as much of an issue.

Your screen name is an oxymoron, right? Has to be.

Ultimately, it was likely a McDermott decision. But after the Patriots game where Josh threw 3 picks, Josh spoke of having long conversations with McDermott and Beane and making promises to them. It's not a huge stretch to think that part of the convo was a chance for Josh to give input on what was working well for him, what could be done better, and what could help him improve. When Daboll moved upstairs to the coach's box prior to the following week, the reason given at the time was to see if he could see the field better and if that would help get plays in more quickly. At the time, there had been buzz about play calls coming late (Kelly advised Josh to "just call your own play if the play call is late"). Being a good 'leader of men', my guess is that McDermott didn't call Daboll in and say "Buddy, you're moving to the box where you can't be seen reaming out your QB in public". Rather, he probably laid out some issues (play calls are sometimes late; we tell the players to put bad plays behind them and move on, but when you're yelling on the sideline, it gives the impression you're not moving on yourself) and put out "why don't we try having you move upstairs to the coach's box where you have a better view of the field? if it works, stay there, if you don't like it, we'll revisit" as a potential solution, and offered something like "when I was DC, I found being up in the box helped me move on to the next play more readily" as a potential benefit.