Beck Water

Aged well

I just popped in to post this link - JT O'Sullivan did another Youtube on Baker Mayfield in this game, which I found fascinating from the POV of what did and what didn't work, in the Bills defensive coverage. Check it out. And I'll see if I can find the pre-snap look, because I'm finding the discussion of the Tampa coverage on that deep throw to Shakir fascinating. Thanks fellas! Presnap Look on the play in question

Who should have picked up Shakir?

So that we could have 3 playoff wins out of 10 games and no conf. championships, in the 12 years since the Steelers lost the 2010 Superbowl? 10 of those years with Ben Roethlisberger and 8 where he was arguably a great to very good QB?

I think this is one of those plays where Allen was able to leverage the defense's awareness of his tendencies. Here's the routes in progress. You're thinking one of the linebackers should pick up Shakir, who in this photo is almost to the 30 yd line on the far hashes. Diggs is running the crosser, on the 45 yd line hashes. I don't know what to call the defense (where's @HoofHearted or @Buffalo716 to put me straight?), but it seems to me that the 4 defenders on or about the 30 yd line are some flavor of zone and 100% focused on Davis and Diggs, because 1) typically Shakir and Sherfield are just running clearing routes 2) Allen's tendencies are 100% to go to Diggs if he can, and Davis if he can't. I think the design of the defense here is to leave Shakir to the single deep safety, but maybe I'm wrong and the safety expects one of the backers to pick him up. This seems to me the sort of thing teams have been doing to choke off the middle of the field and take it away. I think the safety expects Shakir to continue upfield and not head for the far sideline and has an "awshit!" moment when he sees Shakir cut. I could be wrong of course. But the safety falls down and goes "boom", and Shakir (on the hashmarks near the 20) is so open that Allen just can't pass him up. What's actually pretty cool about this play design is when both Davis and Diggs extend their crossing routes vertically, Diggs has both his guys beat AND the guy who is supposed to be containing Cook takes off after Diggs. So Allen has many targets, and just takes the deepest (and most open)

Well, I disagree somewhat. Mahomes makes plenty of special plays and is a threat to burn teams with his legs at all times. But he's sensible about going down or going out of bounds, and he *will* discipline himself to take what the defense gives him. There's a balance to be struck. You need a QB who will go "be a mustang" sometimes and not just take what the defense gives him. But there's also a time and place for moving the chains and taking the checkdown, and not becoming overly predictable in extending the play and forcing the ball into tight coverage deep, at the cost of leading the league in interceptions.

So one thing most of these coaches have in common, is that they have won Superbowls. (Kyle Shanahan excepted, got to the Superbowl in 2019 and was beaten by the Chiefs). But I'd like to point out a couple of things here. 1. Andy Reid coached for 20 years with one (1) Superbowl loss in his 6th season to show for it. I believe it was in 2016 (12-4) after a 2nd consecutive playoff exit, Tony Dungy opined on national TV "the Chiefs may win a Superbowl, but not while Andy Reid is coaching them". So basically there was something like a 14 year stretch where the narrative on Reid was "he's a good regular season coach, but he can't win the big one". Just sayin' 2. Mike Tomlin won a Superbowl his 2nd season, went back to the Superbowl and lost to the Packers 2 years later, and hasn't been back in 12 years (and, he took over a team that was 2 years out from a Superbowl win and had an established Franchise QB). During that time, he had that QB in top performing shape for about 10-11 years. Is he a good coach, undoubtedly in my mind. But if he were coaching the Bills, don't you think the narrative would be "he's a good regular season coach but he can't win the big one"? Just sayin. 3. Sean McVay in his 7th season. Was hailed as a genius when he went to the Superbowl his 2nd year, then the narrative was "Bill Belicheck 'solved' him" as it took them 3 years to get back - in part because they kind of mortgaged their roster for a couple years after the loss, and arguably last year after the win. My take homes are 1) even geniuses have learning curves 2) it's not just the coach - possibly the GM has to be willing to sell out and go "all in" 4. Kyle Shanahan As mentioned, one Superbowl loss in 7 seasons, his 3rd year of coaching. He's held to have had bad luck with QB or "no QB" and done it without, but at some point, with all the talent they have on offense and their top-notch defense, isn't more expected? 5. John Harbaugh 16th year as a HC. Superbowl win, in his 5th season. See Shanahan. 6. Pete Carroll. 20 years as a HC. Has not been to a Superbowl or a Conference Championship in 9 years, since they lost to the Patriots on a 2nd-and-1 goal line interception where the play call was harshly second-guessed. Said to have created a monster in Russell Wilson by coddling him. I'm not saying these aren't good coaches, or that you wouldn't be right to take them over McDermott. I'm just pointing out that if we were looking at these guys with the same micrometer some of us use to measure McDermott, maybe we'd find them lacking, too. Andy Reid is a genius now-a-days, but there was a 14 year stretch when it was fashionable to bash him.

Actually and not to take away from Shakir, one reason he was so wide open was that the safety fell down.

Towards your point, I read somewhere that Davis had something like an 80% completion rate for on-target balls. (He's also been unable to haul in a couple of frustrating throws that hit him right in the hands in the end zone) The thing is, in real life when QBs are under pressure and WR are jammed and stuff, where WR differentiate themselves is, as you say, the ability to make contested catches when the DB gets his hand in there, the ability to adjust and haul in an off target ball, the ability to cut sharply and gain separation.

What does this mean?

Where are you getting this $17M a year? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/dawson-knox-29132/ His AAV is $13M, and like most contracts it's back-loaded into the last couple years. Cap hit $6.43M this season. Which isn't chump change - it made him the 11th highest paid player on the team before the injuries, and #9 TE in AAV - but it's not ridiculous TE seem to get overpaid, and it's not far off where he was for receptions in 2021. He did everything the team asked of him in the 2020 off-season, including taking a huge step in improving his catch % and eliminating drops. I thought last year, he didn't take a further step in receiving yards primarily because of how Dorsey was using him - to chip and release in pass pro, then be a short option - but it may have been because he wasn't learning to out-maneuver his defender at the catch point and find the open spot in zone. Anyway, Knox took a big step back this season in catch % and drops - back toward his rookie or 2nd year, and I don't know if that's because he decided his hands were "cured" and he didn't need to keep up the hard work, or because he's out knocking the "B" out of "Buffalo" as many nights as he can and partying with the ladies. Maybe it's his wrist and surgery will fix it.

Kincaid, I believe, genuinely has elite hands and if he doesn't already, will shortly have elite route running. All the stuff I've seen from him - he's Soooooooo smooth. He's like a 6'4" ball Hoover, just vacuuming in any football that comes his way and rolling on down the rug. Shakir is in the " great game but I want to see more from you before I get too excited" category for me. (we have had players who had 1 or 2 great games, then vanished, remember?) Shakir had 50% catch last season, 10% drops. There's a reason he wasn't on the field for more snaps last season. Maybe he got thrown into the fire too fast after injuries and was overwhelmed, but his elite hands were not apparent. But, so far this season he's been steadily gaining snaps and his last two games have been great. Keep it up, Khalil!

Anyone who brings in Nick Wrong here ought to get paddled with his penis nose. He's 100% about the clicks. Don't give them to him. https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/1647648/nick-wright-may-be-the-biggest-moron-in-the-history-of-morons-and-that-may-not-do-justice-to-how-big-of-a-moron-he-is

Can’t argue with this Logic! In fact, when Poyer was “Out” one game, Rapp started and Hamlin was active (so that they had 2 safeties active) Minor nit, I’m not sure the Bills consider Hamlin a “pure free safety”. In fact if I’m not mistaken he took more of a strong safety role? Or at least sometimes played strong safety, when Hyde was out. But he *is* a pure safety at this point, while Lewis can play CB and nickel as well as safety.

So Greg Cosell had a bunch of interesting stuff to say about the impact of going up tempo on the opponent's defense and also about Kincaid and Shakir. https://www.buffalobills.com/video/one-bills-live

"That's what she said"?

I thought the point is to indicate availability for the game, as information for gamblers. So if you know the best DLman didn't practice with a foot injury and is "out" for the game or "doubtful", you can adjust your bets accordingly. But you aren't entitled to know whether he has a turf toe or a lisfranc injury unless the player chooses to disclose it. "Injury spotters" can watch film and hypothesize about the actual injury and its severity, of course.

You mean, in the Jets game where Josh Allen threw 2 "unforced error" , one "part pressure" interception, and fumbled a shotgun snap by taking his eyes off it? That's what you call "outcoaching and defeating Sean McDermott with Zach Wilson"? Sounds more like Sean McDermott got defeated by Josh Allen, to me. Hokay, Got It. Salah is far better than McDermott at team and gameday management because he has used 8 challenges in the last 3 years and won 4 vs. McDermott who has used 8 challenges in the last 3 years and won 2. Two more plays. And because the Jets are 5th least penalized team in the league - although, if we look at the league's best teams currently, the SF 49ers are right next to the Bills on both sides of the ball. On offense, the 49ers, Chiefs and Cowboys are bottom 10. Add the Dolphins and Ravens as bottom half. On defense, the 49ers, Vikings, and Jaguars are bottom 10; add the Eagles as bottom half. So the relationship between being penalized and being a good, well-coached team may not be as straightforward as you believe. I mean, look, a number of coaches manage winning records without a QB or with a bad QB (Mike Tomlin, Frank Reich) - for that matter, McDermott with Tyrod Taylor went 9-7 and so did Marrone with Orton. In 3 years, the best Salah has managed so far is 7 and 10, with the #2 pick of the 2021 draft at QB. Is this honestly your idea of a good take?

That's actually a possibility. The guy you want is @HappyDays

I don't believe you. But I also don't care enough about it to actually give Nick Wrong the clicks. Frankly, if he said it, even if you already think it, you should gp back and seriously question your beliefs on the topic.

DaQuan Jones could well be back. When Feliciano tore his pec and had surgery at the end of July, 2020 he played 100% of the snaps Nov 1st after his 3 week "designated to return" period. So about 12 weeks to heal and then to do some strength training, which would put us to Week 17. But he said later he was just doing some minimal weight and really didn't have the strength. It really depends upon the location of the tear and the grade of the tear, as well as how effective Jones and the Bills think he can be after limited time to rebuilt his strength.

It's not a problem to ask or be concerned, and yeah, we would all like to know. It would be unethical for the club to put a more detailed update out without the player's explicit permission, and like I said, Milano seems to be a private kind of guy off the field.

One thing I thought was positive is McDermott actually referred to Kincaid as a "good TE" and said "he's done a good job" (damned near unheard of for McDermott to issue that much praise towards a rookie player, it's usually "he's done some good things, and other things I'm sure he'd like back"): https://www.buffalobills.com/video/frito-lay-crunchtime-play-dalton-kincaid-touchdown about 45 seconds in "He's done a good job, and when you watch the rappore of a good TE with a QB, it only grows over the years, and the more they play together the better it should get" I could be mistaken, but I can't remember ever hearing McDermott say that kind of thing about Dawson Knox?

Just curious - can you provide any objective evidence to substantiate that? Or are we living in the land of TLAR (that looks about right)?

I mean, do you grant a player the right to personal autonomy over whether or not the details of his medical conditions and procedures are released? It really shouldn't be "up to" the organization other than to name the body part and whether or not he's been place on IR. That may not be known yet. It's going to depend on how well it heals and how well his rehab progresses. But I think McDermott is probably being "cagey" in not "ruling out his return". Don't get me wrong, Milano is one of my fave players and I would love to hear positive news about his injury, but "can I resume my football career and play at the same level if I do?" is probably a question Milano himself wishes he knew the answer to at the moment.