Beck Water

While you're not wrong that there's more to it than "a guy was open", I'm pretty sure on a short week we weren't running new plays with different players in different roles. The timing of what plays were called when, and using one play to set up another, was different.

A couple notes One is, the Chiefs offense has not been as high-powered as usual this year. Currently #16 for points and #10 for yards. They have somewhat similar woes - a lot of turnovers (tied with Bills for 19), a lot of dropped passes. It's the Chiefs defense that has been keeping them in games. That, and Paddy Mahomes feet - he's actually #4 for QB rush yards, right behind Jackson, Hurts, and Fields. Two is, both teams had 12 drives. 3 turnovers (fumble for the Chiefs as well as INT and and INT by Philly). The Eagles had 7 punts to the Chiefs 6 punts. So it would be pretty much true that the Chiefs D shut down the high-flying Eagles offense pretty well. The difference in the game came down to Chiefs settling for a FG to go with 2 TD where the Eagles had 3 TD

You have an excellent point that it's not just some sheer # of rush attempts, but the timing and effectiveness You may not intend to imply this, but just to be clear, I was not suggesting that the Bills need to run 50% of the time....explicitly, I pointed out that the current top-10 teams are all over the place in how much they pass vs. run

The Bills average 7.1 NY/A (pass yards-sack yards lost)/(pass attempts + sacks). They average 4.4 YPC on rush attempts. So...in theory, passing is a more efficient way to gain yards which is why explosive and high scoring offenses tend to pass a lot. But...well here, let me see if I can pull some data (click to enlarge) These data are sorted by W, then PF. % use (pass attempts + rush attempts) We can see that currently, 2 of the top 10 teams rush more than they pass, Ravens and 49ers, with the Eagles close to and the Browns at 50%. The rest of the teams vary from 55 to 60% passing, with the Bills towards the higher end at 57%. A couple things stand out to me. One is, the 49ers have the highest NY/A passing of these teams, suggesting that opponents defending the run really opens up the pass game for them. Other than that, the run/pass % are all over the map for this year's top teams, suggesting there's not one "secret sauce", it depends on the skill sets of the players. Overall, I agree with you that the Bills should perhaps be "pounding the rock" a bit more...the question is "how much more?" and the answer is not straightforward. Obviously, we want enough of a run threat to prevent opposing Ds from pinning their ears back and attacking, but depending on what opponents do, a short passing game can contribute to the same effect.

Oh, wow. Interesting times for the Steeler fans. Pickett got thrown into the fire last season because "Money Mitch" just looked incompetent. On the other hand, he had Canada as his OC, so....

A valid point, but the most recent was what, 16 years ago? That's a long-lasting aura. I don't disagree, I think up thread I pointed out that the new OC-by-committee may be an improvement, but they're still dealing with the same OL and QB. Still, in the Steelers games I've watched (not that many), I thought that Pickett had chances to get the ball out in rhythm with short passes that would make the OL look better at times - and that he's developed that "happy feet" bailing from a functional pocket young QB get when the OL struggles.

I imagine Josh has mixed feelings. I do think there may have been something amiss, a kind of negative feedback loop between Josh's own self-criticism and Dorsey's possible over-the-top outbursts in response to mistakes (as witnessed in the booth 2022 and implied by comments from Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis, and others). Others like @Simon have raised the point about apparent miscues and mistakes from other players pointing to a lack of attention to detail in offensive coaching. And, Josh has been observably "impatient" - more his early career self - rather than taking what's there. It's possible that's because any coaching to do so was couched in a way Josh found difficult to hear and to process and implement. Josh is a guy who succeeded against a sheet-ton of negative coaching input early in his career, it stands to reason at a certain point he's going to tune negatively packaged feedback out and just return to his basic instincts. Maybe that's what we've been seeing. I'd just like to point out that there's something else going on - Josh's shoulder injury and recovery from it. In 2020, Josh injured his L shoulder Week 4 and his performance dipped the next 4 games. Then 5 games later (note that number) against the Seasnakes, Josh kicked butt and took names in the passing game. Matt Hasselbeck commented about this based on his own experience with this shoulder sprain injury and its recovery timeline. OK, so Josh sprained his R throwing shoulder in Week 6 against the Giants. 5 games later against the Jets (note that number), Josh is noticeably feeling more vigorous and energetic and is observed saying what sounds like "I'm ***** back". Maybe it's the change of OC, but maybe the progression of healing in his shoulder has something to do with it. Just a thought.

You know, I just don't see how people can see that. Sorry. Last season, our offense was #4 in the NFL for both points and yards with Dorsey at the helm. This season, we're currently #4 for points and #2 for yards. Various knowledgeable people, including former NFL QBs and some coaches who hang here and are generous enough to share what they know, have broken down plays this season and shown that there were open options on many pass plays that Josh overlooked, and that our running offense has been effective from the formation utilized (shotgun). It's not to say that there weren't real reasons for Dorsey's firing, that he isn't just a scapegoat and that the Bills offense may potentially run better under Brady. It's possible - I need more than 1 game to see that, especially since we "settled" for 4 FG including with 2 starts in great field position. But I've been a Bills fan since the mid-60s and "historically bad, incompetent" for Dorsey is a tough sell. You can can argue anything, including that the moon is made of green cheese - but De Rules are de rules and the Facts are the Facts and the argument for "historically bad" doesn't pass muster against the actual offensive parameters.

I don't keep up on the stats. For outright winning, could be so - I seem to recall you beating the drum for it pretty heavily some years back. It didn't fit what I was trying to do in looking at QB performance, since it accounts for sacks - which may or may not be under the QB's control. And I believe its creators have played around with the weighting on TDs vs INTs a couple of times? weighting TD more heavily and INT less. But ANY/A ultimately makes the same fundamental point in rebuttal to the post I was responding to - it includes both TDs and INTs (with whatever weighting is being used) - reinforcing the point that any reasonable assessment of QB performance can not just "dismiss the QB's TDs because of the turnovers". They both matter, and if there are "enough" passing TDs (whatever that means) it compensates for "few enough" INTs (whatever that means) - that's my take-home. If you prefer to use ANY/A, Josh is #8 in the league right now. Herbert is #9, Mahomes is #11, Hurts is #12, Lawrence is #15, Burrows is #21.

So people are saying the offensive players were complaining about Canada and it had reached a place where they weren't keeping it 'in house' It's an interesting point that I haven't heard speculation about "behind the scenes" stuff with the Bills....is that in part because McDermott and Beane seem to firmly believe "loose lips sink ships" and seem to do a pretty good job cultivating a culture where players "keep things in house"? But surely there was some...I find it hard to believe that a coach who displayed the emotional control breakdown that Dorsey did up in the booth after the Heat Stroke loss, and that had multiple players talking about "The Holy Spirit comes out of him", didn't have some "in house" stuff going on that came out after some of our close losses.

I mean, like I said, it's not totally fair, since Schaub got that Aaron Rodgers/Pat Mahomes bench-and-learn apprenticeship in Atlanta, while Pickett got thrown into the fire Week 4 of his rookie year. My point was just that a Matt Schaub ceiling is actually a pretty good player. OK, I getcha now. Expressing support, but then dissociating himself. Did McD do anything similar in his pressers close to the Dorsey firing?

I'm sorry, but I just LOL when I read stuff like this. We're watching on television. We see little glimpses of the QB on the sideline and maybe between plays, carefully chosen by the network to create a narrative and drama. And from that you conclude Hurts is the "same guy when losing and when they took the lead" and the Bills all look like their dog just died? Seriously?

Whaddo I know but if you want a heavy set on the Bills right now, bring in a 6th OL Kincaid has stepped up and really improved as a downfield blocker. I don't know what Boras is feeding him, but it's working. But, if you want a traditional heavy set, I don't think either Kincaid or Morris are your guys. Morris is a converted WR who can bock downfield but has struggled to block in-line. I'm not sure Kincaid is ready to "Wally Pipp" Knox. Though, he may be closer than I thought he'd be going into the season....but Kincaid can't block in-line or pass protect, Knox can.

It's not a fair comparison because Schaub spent 3 years on the Atlanta bench before getting a chance to start with Houston. But then he logged several >4000 yd seasons with mid-60s completion % and a couple of pro-bowl appearances back when it meant more. Then of course injuries finished him in his early 30s. Totally under-appreciated QB in his prime, though, IMHO. So far, Pickett hasn't entered the room to look up at Matt Schaub's ceiling.

That was just a total CF of a situation in NE. Miami did something more analogous to what the Steelers are trying in 2021, making TE coach Godsey and RB coach Studesville joint OCs.

Good coaches don't want to 1) feed the press 2) throw their own people under the bus. Wasn't McDermott saying positive things about how he had full confidence in Ken Dorsey like, the day before he fired him?

It's a good question, but I'm not sure changing OCs makes Pickett's decision making better or faster, or improves the pass protection of their OL. I would tend towards "push" OTOH we have seen a change of some sort improve an offense (Fitzpatrick taking over for Trent Edwards at QB when I would have said our OL was pathetic).

That was exactly my first thought - "oh, didn't the Dolphins under Brian Flores try that one year? I don't think it worked." Edit: 2021. They finished 9-8 and Flores was fired.

I don't want to be That Guy who trash talks someone who's out the door. But Dorsey always had a weird affect to me. In his weekly "coordinator pressers", for most of them he had a very fixed posture as though someone had skewered his head neck and torso, rendering them immoveable relative to each other. And, his pupils always seemed very dilated. I just told myself "maybe he's just uncomfortable talking to the press". Also while dilated pupils are linked in the public mind to drugs of possible abuse such as amphetamines and cocaine, I know that many legit prescribed medications for nausea, seizure disorders, Parkinson's, antidepressants etc can cause dilated pupils. So I told myself don't judge, don't assume, probably he builds great rappore and communicates great with the players and it's just the press conferences that are weird. After he was fired, though, it does seem fair to ask was he just the "chosen sacrifice", or, was there something where he had an issue, and/or where he in fact wasn't communicating to the players any more effectively than he communicated to the press?

OK I had to sit back and digest a bit. I have a couple of questions. You mention top 5 run concepts, but then 16 other run concepts (21 total). 1) just to help me contextualize, do you know or can you estimate how frequent the "top 5" are vs the others? 2) again to help me contextualize, any estimate about what success rate the other concepts have, again, aggregate? 3) I think this is an important ask to some here - any different success ratio in the red zone? I think there has been a lot of angst on this board about shotgun run play calls in a 'goal to go' situation. Since the defense is condensed in this situation, it seems to me the success could be affected? I hope these are straightforward asks, I don't mean to be a PITA looking at a massive data endeavor and saying "please Sir can I have some more?" 🥣 Last Q just curious, what video is this which ripped our Inside Zone and Duo? Thanks!

I just watched the Eagles at Chiefs MNF game. Mahomes did not look as though he were having a lot of fun out there tonight.

Then, at the point Josh is at...those people are wrong to dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers. I did a thing some time ago, where I pulled about 18 years of NFL QB data and looked at a number of stats for correlation to winning. I did this because I ultimately wanted to look at success of QB drafted in different rounds, so before I could do that, I had to define success; obviously a QB can play well and still lose if the defense is awful. So I started out looking at winning teams and how their QB played. Trying to keep this out of TL;DR I found that completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and YPA (taken all 3 together) were correlated with winning, and the correlation got better if I put in a floor ~220 ypg passing (couldn't pin down an exact number). But here's the thing - the values that correlated were pretty mild. Something like >60% completions, TD/INT greater than 1.5, and YPA >6.5. Which I think most here would say "not very good". The point was, the QB had to meet ALL THREE of those criteria (plus the passing yard floor), not just one. If he did, that was good enough for the team to win with a reasonable defense. Where am I going with this? The point is that right now, Josh is rocking a TD/INT ratio of 1.83. Which is, in fact, good enough to win. Are there QB with better? Yes. Whose teams are having successful years? Yes, some - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Tua. Are there QB of successful teams with similar? Also yes - as a matter of fact, Josh is currently sandwiched between Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence for TD/INT ratio. Obviously, we all want the turnovers to decrease. But the TDs do matter, and the ratio of points the QB helps generate passing (TDs) to INTs is important - actually, as far as correlation to winning, more important than looking at TDs alone or INTs alone.

Thank you! There is a massive amount of data underlying this post.

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*nodding* It's one train of thought to perceive Dorsey as a 'fall guy', a meaningless sacrifice to the team's execution errors and poor play "It's about the Jimmies and Joes, not the X's and O's" but Another train of thought would be, it's on the coaches to communicate effectively and demand focus and execution in practice that will carry through to the game Maybe....Dorsey had some shortcomings in that department? I must have heard Josh Allen say more than a dozen times over Dorsey's tenure words to the effect, "the QB has to see the field the same way as the OC does and be his eyes on the field". Maybe there was something incompatible between Dorsey and Josh, in the process of trying to get Josh to mesh with him like that? Or, thinking back to the Miami heatstroke game last year and Dorsey's outburst in the booth, and Morse talking about how the "Holy Spirit comes out him" and "you don't want to be on the receiving end" - maybe there was something about how Dorsey would communicate to Josh that wasn't working. Don't know, obviously, but when a team is making unforced errors by the bushel, it does seem plausible that coaching (which is a lot about communication) may have something to do with it.