Beck Water

That was exactly my first thought - "oh, didn't the Dolphins under Brian Flores try that one year? I don't think it worked." Edit: 2021. They finished 9-8 and Flores was fired.

I don't want to be That Guy who trash talks someone who's out the door. But Dorsey always had a weird affect to me. In his weekly "coordinator pressers", for most of them he had a very fixed posture as though someone had skewered his head neck and torso, rendering them immoveable relative to each other. And, his pupils always seemed very dilated. I just told myself "maybe he's just uncomfortable talking to the press". Also while dilated pupils are linked in the public mind to drugs of possible abuse such as amphetamines and cocaine, I know that many legit prescribed medications for nausea, seizure disorders, Parkinson's, antidepressants etc can cause dilated pupils. So I told myself don't judge, don't assume, probably he builds great rappore and communicates great with the players and it's just the press conferences that are weird. After he was fired, though, it does seem fair to ask was he just the "chosen sacrifice", or, was there something where he had an issue, and/or where he in fact wasn't communicating to the players any more effectively than he communicated to the press?

OK I had to sit back and digest a bit. I have a couple of questions. You mention top 5 run concepts, but then 16 other run concepts (21 total). 1) just to help me contextualize, do you know or can you estimate how frequent the "top 5" are vs the others? 2) again to help me contextualize, any estimate about what success rate the other concepts have, again, aggregate? 3) I think this is an important ask to some here - any different success ratio in the red zone? I think there has been a lot of angst on this board about shotgun run play calls in a 'goal to go' situation. Since the defense is condensed in this situation, it seems to me the success could be affected? I hope these are straightforward asks, I don't mean to be a PITA looking at a massive data endeavor and saying "please Sir can I have some more?" 🥣 Last Q just curious, what video is this which ripped our Inside Zone and Duo? Thanks!

I just watched the Eagles at Chiefs MNF game. Mahomes did not look as though he were having a lot of fun out there tonight.

Then, at the point Josh is at...those people are wrong to dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers. I did a thing some time ago, where I pulled about 18 years of NFL QB data and looked at a number of stats for correlation to winning. I did this because I ultimately wanted to look at success of QB drafted in different rounds, so before I could do that, I had to define success; obviously a QB can play well and still lose if the defense is awful. So I started out looking at winning teams and how their QB played. Trying to keep this out of TL;DR I found that completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and YPA (taken all 3 together) were correlated with winning, and the correlation got better if I put in a floor ~220 ypg passing (couldn't pin down an exact number). But here's the thing - the values that correlated were pretty mild. Something like >60% completions, TD/INT greater than 1.5, and YPA >6.5. Which I think most here would say "not very good". The point was, the QB had to meet ALL THREE of those criteria (plus the passing yard floor), not just one. If he did, that was good enough for the team to win with a reasonable defense. Where am I going with this? The point is that right now, Josh is rocking a TD/INT ratio of 1.83. Which is, in fact, good enough to win. Are there QB with better? Yes. Whose teams are having successful years? Yes, some - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Tua. Are there QB of successful teams with similar? Also yes - as a matter of fact, Josh is currently sandwiched between Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence for TD/INT ratio. Obviously, we all want the turnovers to decrease. But the TDs do matter, and the ratio of points the QB helps generate passing (TDs) to INTs is important - actually, as far as correlation to winning, more important than looking at TDs alone or INTs alone.

Thank you! There is a massive amount of data underlying this post.

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*nodding* It's one train of thought to perceive Dorsey as a 'fall guy', a meaningless sacrifice to the team's execution errors and poor play "It's about the Jimmies and Joes, not the X's and O's" but Another train of thought would be, it's on the coaches to communicate effectively and demand focus and execution in practice that will carry through to the game Maybe....Dorsey had some shortcomings in that department? I must have heard Josh Allen say more than a dozen times over Dorsey's tenure words to the effect, "the QB has to see the field the same way as the OC does and be his eyes on the field". Maybe there was something incompatible between Dorsey and Josh, in the process of trying to get Josh to mesh with him like that? Or, thinking back to the Miami heatstroke game last year and Dorsey's outburst in the booth, and Morse talking about how the "Holy Spirit comes out him" and "you don't want to be on the receiving end" - maybe there was something about how Dorsey would communicate to Josh that wasn't working. Don't know, obviously, but when a team is making unforced errors by the bushel, it does seem plausible that coaching (which is a lot about communication) may have something to do with it.

Against the Jets? 29 (38%) My guess would be they'll designate him to return, but not activate him quite yet - not while we're down so many CB and S

If you look closely at the video, our smiley lil' "Golden Retreiver Vibes" rookie TE Kincaid was getting some fists in. Looks like it's on Jets 91, not Sauce though. That's John Franklin-Meyers. He throws Spencer Brown to the ground and Kincaid neatly punches him for it, below the pads and behind the refs back, then lays off when the ref turns. Nice.

I mean, yes, he nicely corrected him, but schooled? Strange usage.

John Wawrow. Sports reporter for Associated Press, one of the news sources that has strict standards for verifying sources still as opposed to other "press" which utilize each other's questionable tweets referencing anonymous folks as a source. Good and balanced reporter, does a nice job pulling together different interviews and sources to craft a story. Developed the habit of 5 minute monologues that assume the answer to the question he finally asks vs. posing concise questions during Covid.

The Jets assistant DL coach used to coach for the Bills.

Sorry, I'm not usually too much into toting around other people's receipts so I don't think about "forgiving". It's also a thing that some here are very binary in their take. You're either a "hater" or an "apologist" or whatever. I can tell you that there were a lot of posts I saw where people were totally over-the-top in their takes that Edmunds was a terrible, horrible, no good very bad player. Well, if that's true, I doubt the Bills woulda picked up his 5th year option nor that he'd be given the 5th highest ILB contract in FA. FO's do make mistakes but overall the market is efficient, and Bears HC Eberflaus does know something abaout D. Note I'm not saying he deserved that contract, or that the Bills should have kept him. And I suppose there were some people who argued that he was an exceptional player, but most of what I can recall as "apologists" seemed more along the lines of "he doesn't suck, he's not a bad player, he actually plays decently" which is not exactly overpraising him.

Actually right now, I think the ones who should be embarrassed are those who wanted to take Beane to the woodshed for his total waste of a 3rd round pick on Terrel Bernard (and Dorian Williams seems to be showing some promise as well - knock wood) Click on the text of the tweet so that a direct link shows in the browser window. Then copy that link and paste it in.

I do believe that's what "What, you want some of this?" means

Nice writeup as always, Shaw. To this point: I'm not going to say the Bills dominated, I'm not going to say the Bills didn't dominate. But, it's a fact that the score was 32-6, and that 10 of those points came off turnovers. Is that "only 10 of those 32 points came off turnovers, so they still would have won by 16 points", or is that "and 10 of those 32 points came off turnovers, it would have been only a 16 point win"? Potayto, Potahtoe? The Bills sustained 4 drives of more than 4 minutes and 4 drives of 8 or more plays (not the same drives), which some would take as a sign of offensive dominance. On the other hand, 4 drives ended with a FG, including a drive from the Jets 21 and the Buff 46, which is typically not so dominant. Tomayto, Tomahtoe? Yes

I don't know the specific numbers, but to prevent newbies who don't know the ropes here being disruptive by starting a thread for their every thought, there's a limit on how long you must be a member and how many posts you must have before you can start threads. Those exact numbers are closely guarded wisdom revealed to only a sacrosanct few after a secret ceremony involving a skull full of Possum stew, a set of Zubaz apparel, and a bottle of Lagavulin. Just kidding on the ceremony, if I explained what was really involved @Simon would have to kill me, but the part about the newbie limits on time and # posts before starting threads is correct.

Did Simms provide any information to back up his statment that "Shakir is a stronger option on the boundary"? People say a lot of stuff - for example, that Shakir isn't fast enough for a boundary receiver; he ran a 4.43 40 vs. Davis 4.56 and Diggs 4.46. My perception about Shakir on the boundary is that he doesn't have the release to gain separation, especially against press man - he's better this year than last but still - and that he doesn't have the arm length to win against hand fighting (29" arms which is 2-3" shorter than Diggs or Davis.) I think Simms knows something, but I'm not exactly sure what Simms is seeing when he says that.

I dunno about part- vs. full- time or necessary salary, but it's pretty clear to me that the league doesn't do enough to develop and sustain consistent and appropriate officiating. We have officials who are, well, officious, like the guy who threw AJ Epenesa out of the game after the ref shoved Epenesa in the back and Epenesa reacted and pulled up when he saw it was a ref. And we have ridiculousness like that DPI call on Douglas (31) And that DPI play - wasn't that the play where one of the Jets WR basically laid Micah Hyde out with a block, before the ball was in the air?

In this instance, I think Phillips was breaking it up. He stepped in while a couple other Bills assistants/trainers muscled Dion out of there. It looked almost surgically precise - neat footwork and he had his arms up from the start until they got Clemons backed off, then he just stood there like "What, you want some of this?" That'd be Josh. Though rumor (from a know-nothing named Micah Hyde) said that Matt Milano was the biggest trash-talker on the D - wasn't clear if he meant internal or external though.

I hope so..... Yeah, that was BigJ9797 both hands up walking the mass of Jets surrounding Clemons back away from the door ..... and then just standing there like "really?"

FTR, Davis played 93%, 99%, 98% and 88% of the snaps the last for games. Shakir played 65%, 71%, 76%, 74%. I don't THINK that points to Davis being superceded as the #2. I think for this game, anyway, it points to Josh being smarter with taking what the defense offered and being patient. I think it's 4. 3 targeting Harty, 2 Diggs, 2 Knox, 1 Kincaid I think the INT to Kincaid was that deflection that came nowhere near him. Pretty sure at least 2 of the 3 INT to Hardy were deep shots, like the end-of-half this past game.

Agree. Which is not to say that there might not have been a bit of a scrum if they hadn't been separated by wiser heads, but then again - maybe they felt free to go on like that because there WERE wiser heads there to separate them? You know how you can have dogs separated by a fence, and they snarl and bark and growl at each other, then the fence disappears and they're like "What? No, no problem here...."

Davis? People forget the splendid games he did turn in for the Bills. 4 receptions on 4 targets for 87 yds against IND, 2020. Clutch clutch sideline toe taps. We don't get to the AFCCG without him. The 201 yd, 10 target 8 reception game against KC that took us to 13 seconds. 6 receptions on 9 targets, 113 yds against Miami last year. And there have been regular season games too - 2022 3 receptions 171 yds against Pittsburgh, 6 rec 93 against Minn. This season 6 for 92 against the Raidahs, 6 for 100 against Jax, 9 for 87 against Tampa. Yes, he's a good downfield blocker (run or pass) but he's also been a key receiving target at times. As fans we get recency bias and we want to be absolute. The problem the coaches and FO face, is when they have a guy who shows flashes and who can take over the game at times, then disappears at others. Do you part ways, in favor of an unproven rookie or a player from another team? Or do you give your own guy more playing time and a chance to let the flashes turn into a steady light? That's where the Bills FO has made some mistakes the last couple years, thinking that Davis was ready to be a full time #2 with Sanders retiring, and that McKenzie would be OK as a full time slot with the Bills moving on from Beasley. This season, that Hardy would be a step up on McKenzie and that Davis was hampered last year with a lingering ankle and would be better this year. Anyway, point is, for coaches and for the FO, I don't think the picture is generally so absolute as fans want to make it. Gabe's been averaging 5 targets and 3 receptions per game this season. That's a lot of targets for a guy who's around as a run blocker.